# Syria: Is there any way this can end well?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [February 6, 2012, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919 "2012-02-06T01:51:46Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 4

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**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2012, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/61 "2012-07-18T15:20:31Z")

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> [@Alessan](#):
>
> And Syria has air defenses that can take them out easily.

I know that. I was just answering **BrainGlutton** ’s query about if the CIA actually had the capability to blow up tanks.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2012, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/62 "2012-07-18T15:21:17Z")

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> [@Alessan](#):
>
> The border between Israel and Syria is a wartime border, and is one of the most strongly-defended and closely watched frontiers in the world; no-one is getting through unless Israel lets them, and Israel isn’t letting them. It’s not that anyone really wants to, anyway, and besides, the entire area between Damascus and the Golan is essentially a military zone, where the Syrian Army traditionally keeps the bulk of its armored forces. It’s the worst possible direction a refugee could run.

What about west? Could a Syrian refugee conceivably reach safety by running to (of all places!) Lebanon?

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2012, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/63 "2012-07-18T15:26:25Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> What about west? Could a Syrian refugee conceivably reach safety by running to (of all places!) Lebanon?

According to [this Wiki cite](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_the_2011%E2%80%932012_Syrian_uprising) - which is arguably accurate and definitely not up-to-date - there are some 26,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

The problem with running to Lebanon is that it’s under the de facto control of Hezbollah, which is a close ally of the Assad regime. Still, any port in a storm.

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**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2012, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/64 "2012-07-18T16:52:49Z")

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North is a popular direction for Syrian refugees and Turkey continually builds new camps. No shitty Hezbollah either.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/65 "2013-01-31T03:41:34Z")

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[Israeli airstrike on Syria.](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21269766) (So says the Syrian government – the Israeli has no comment.)

> [@](#):
>
> The Syrian military says Israeli jets have carried out an air strike on its territory, but denied reports that lorries carrying weapons bound for Lebanon were hit.
> 
> It said in a statement that the target was a military research centre northwest of the capital Damascus.
> 
> Two people were killed and five injured in the attack, it said.
> 
> Lebanese security sources, Western diplomats and Syrian rebels say an arms convoy was hit near Lebanon’s border.
> 
> The attack came as Israel voiced fears that Syrian missiles and chemical weapons could fall into the hands of militants such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
> 
> BBC Middle East correspondent Wyre Davies says none of the reports can be verified, although some well-placed diplomats and military sources say they would not be surprised if Israel had acted, given the recent instability in Syria.
> 
> Israel and the US have declined to comment on the incident.

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/66 "2013-01-31T10:24:49Z")

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Yeah, this was bound to happen sooner or later.

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**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/67 "2013-01-31T11:49:31Z")

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Why is Iran all buddy-buddy with Assad now? Assad is a secular dictator, Ahmadinejad a militant islamist. Assad’s fall could be a good thing as far as weakening Iran goes.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/68 "2013-01-31T15:20:51Z")

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> [@Alessan](#):
>
> Yeah, this was bound to happen sooner or later.

Why? What’s the point? Do the Israelis really believe they can intervene in Syria in any way that won’t make things worse? The U.S. could, just maybe perhaps if everything breaks just exactly perfectly right and we have a huge dose of luck and divine intervention; but Israel can’t, because almost all factions in Syria hate Israel as a matter of non-negotiable principle. Is it not so?

Besides, it’s news to me that Israel has even **picked a side** in this war. Assad is the devil you know, you know.

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**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/69 "2013-01-31T15:29:02Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Why? What’s the point? Do the Israelis really believe they can intervene in Syria in any way that won’t make things worse?

I imagine they were worried about having their citizens shot at.

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**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/70 "2013-01-31T15:36:39Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Besides, it’s news to me that Israel has even **picked a side** in this war.

Israel hasn’t picked a side.  
It attacked the hardware, regardless of who owned it.

The air force grabbed a chance to destroy some very, very dangerous weapons that were being moved openly, before they could be pointed at Israel.  
Those weapons may have been unused and in storage for the past 20 years…but as soon as anybody (and it doesn’t matter who) takes them out of storage, then the rules of the game have changed.

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/71 "2013-01-31T16:00:00Z")

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What he said.

Israel doesn’t need to pick a side in this war - it \*is \*a side in this war, namely the side that’s opposed to Hezbollah (and Iran). If Hezbollah is taking steps to acquire advanced weapon systems, Israel will take actions to prevent this.

The Syrian Civil War hasn’t expanded to include Israel; rather, the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict has expanded to include the Syrian Civil War.

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**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/72 "2013-01-31T16:50:27Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Why? What’s the point? Do the Israelis really believe they can intervene in Syria in any way that won’t make things worse? The U.S. could, just maybe perhaps if everything breaks just exactly perfectly right and we have a huge dose of luck and divine intervention; but Israel can’t, because almost all factions in Syria hate Israel as a matter of non-negotiable principle. Is it not so?
> 
> Besides, it’s news to me that Israel has even **picked a side** in this war. Assad is the devil you know, you know.

Where did Israel pick a side? Israel bombed a weapons convoy that was going to Hezbullah. Which “side” is that?

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/73 "2013-01-31T18:12:16Z")

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> [@Terr](#):
>
> Where did Israel pick a side? Israel bombed a weapons convoy that was going to Hezbullah. Which “side” is that?

Who knows? The Syrian government says Israel bombed a military research facility, not a convoy. The Israeli government says nothing.

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**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/74 "2013-01-31T19:47:34Z")

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The EU wants to arm the rebel groups in the belief that they can contain the weapons only to those rebel groups that are peace loving, western orientated, secular, fighting for democracy and women’s rights. No chance that’s going to happen. At this point the rebels have been so thoroughly infected or taken over by islamists that they on the whole are worse than Assad. If anything we should send more bombs to Assad. But really we should stay the hell away. There are no good sides, and nothing good is going to come of it. If the rebels win Christians and Alawites are going to be cleansed. If we really want to do something we could go in and set up safe zones like during the Bosnian wars. Only it didn’t work so well at that time.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/75 "2013-01-31T21:05:54Z")

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> [@Rune](#):
>
> At this point the rebels have been so thoroughly infected or taken over by islamists that they on the whole are worse than Assad.

How do you know that?

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/76 "2013-01-31T22:32:09Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> Why is Iran all buddy-buddy with Assad now? Assad is a secular dictator, Ahmadinejad a militant islamist. Assad’s fall could be a good thing as far as weakening Iran goes.

because they send serious military arms used against Israel through Syria as part of their proxy-war.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/77 "2013-01-31T23:25:11Z")

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[“Syria warns Israel of ‘surprise’ retaliation”.](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/2013131131631385665.html)

Well, you just went and spoiled the surprise, dumbass! :mad:

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**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2013, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/78 "2013-01-31T23:53:12Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> [“Syria warns Israel of ‘surprise’ retaliation”.](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/2013131131631385665.html)
> 
> Well, you just went and spoiled the surprise, dumbass! :mad:

Good help is hard to find.

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**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2013, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/79 "2013-02-01T00:58:58Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> [“Syria warns Israel of ‘surprise’ retaliation”.](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/2013131131631385665.html)
> 
> Well, you just went and spoiled the surprise, dumbass! :mad:

“ **Israeli Leader kidnapped by the Syrian Inquisition**. ‘No one expected the Syrian Inquisition’ says government representative.”

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2013, 9:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/80 "2013-02-01T09:00:07Z")

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I figure as long as they’re fighting each other, they can’t invest a lot of time in planning ways to harm Israelis or Americans, so … keep it up fellas.

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