# Syria: Is there any way this can end well? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 6, 2012, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919 "2012-02-06T01:51:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2014, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/121 "2014-06-28T22:46:17Z")
And $500 million is not a lot of money as these things go. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2014, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/122 "2014-06-28T22:46:56Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > No, the best you could say is, “At least it won’t cost the U.S. a whole lot of money.” Our butcher’s bill in Iraq was really very cheap when you consider the size and scale of the operation, but the actual monetary bill was a whopper. I care less about the money than about the people killed and maimed. Don’t forget that the one reason the casualty rate was as low as it is was our improved battlefield medical treatment. Few killed, many more maimed. YMMV. At any rate, $500M isn’t going to get rid of ISIL in Syria. And I don’t see that it’s going to tip the hand of the so-called moderate rebels. Assad just needs to go to The Great Patron in Moscow for help or an even bigger hand-out. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/123 "2014-06-29T04:53:40Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > If Assad falls, the resulting ethno-religious war will make what we saw in Iraq look like a playground spat. Would you say ‘the playground spat’ in Iraq is a ‘challenge’ to the Government of Iraq? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/124 "2014-06-29T05:15:04Z")
No. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/125 "2014-06-29T05:26:16Z")
I’m at a complete loss as to why you would ask if something that happened several years ago is a challenge to the Iraqi government today. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/126 "2014-06-29T05:44:41Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > At any rate, $500M isn’t going to get rid of ISIL in Syria. How would you know that? How many will it get rid of? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/127 "2014-06-29T05:59:08Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > However, if Iraqi forces prevail and drive ISIL back into Syria, they will have done it with US help. That does not speak well to the idea that Iraq is “self-reliant”. You would have to be convinced that ISIS has no outside help to be able to launch this assault on Iraq in the first place to consider 300 US troops sent into help being evidence that Iraq was not self reliant in 2011 when all American troops were pulled out. Is America no longer self reliant when it get foreign help on intelligence and criminal investigations. Does America have its own self interest in helping Iraq’s military destroy this Vermin that invaded Iraq on June 10 2014? Is the US not self-reliant for having Iraq’s Army do the ground fighting against an international terrorist threat that invaded Iraq from Syria? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/128 "2014-06-29T06:01:11Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > No. So they are handling it ok and as you would expect them to do n your opinion? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/129 "2014-06-29T06:05:58Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’m at a complete loss as to why you would ask if something that happened several years ago is a challenge to the Iraqi government today. It is happening ‘now’ as you said. You said Obama either lied or was unaware of the unstable condition of Iraq three years ago when he pulled all the troops out. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/130 "2014-06-29T14:42:55Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > If Assad falls, the resulting ethno-religious war will make what we saw in Iraq look like a playground spat. I can’t understand why anyone who thought invading Iraq to get rid of SH was a terrible idea would think that aiding in the process of getting rid of Assad is a good idea _as long as US ground troops aren’t involved_. At least in the first instance we had a fairly large force to help keep the peace afterwards. In the latter case, there will be no occupying force to do anything. The best you could say is: _so what if the carnage will be worse in Syria than it was in Iraq; at least no Americans will be killed._ Note the tense of the verb “to see” in the first sentence. Past tense. If I wanted to refer to what is happening now in Iraq, I would have said “what we _are seeing_…” I’m sure most posters here understand that I was referring to the violence we SAW in Iraq in the years immediately after the deposing of SH. That violence peaked in 2006/2007. Syria, as some of us know, has even more ethnic division than Iraq does. So far, Civil War II hasn’t escalated to the level of Civil War I, but we’ll have to see how this plays out. Many a ME expert likens Iraq to Humpty Dumpty. There is an eerie parallel to what we’re seeing in the ME today and what saw almost exactly 100 years ago in Europe. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/131 "2014-06-29T17:03:19Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > 1. I don’t know that ISIL ever had the ability to advance on Baghdad. Or, they may be able to some time in the future. However, my personal interest level in this matter is irrelevant to the debate and also none of your business. > > 2. This thread is about Syria. The discussion won’t be over if by some miracle ISIL is driven back into Syria. I can’t imagine why you would think it would be. That makes about as much sense as this does: > [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > I believe that part of your personal interest at the outset of the ISIS march into Iraq that began in all seriousness on June 10, was to suggest that Obama either lied or was clueless in December 2011 when he supposedly did not see this ISIS driven attack on Iraqi government forces coming. > > Are you holding that position if Iraqi government forces prevail and drive ISIS back to Syria over the next few months. > [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > I asked if you would think the discussion would be over, which is nowhere suggesting on my part that I think it would be over. > > I’m glad to hear then if I understood you correctly that you think the discussion will not be over. > > But thanks for saying “if by some miracle ISIL is driven back into Syria”. I hope carnalk sees that and realizes to be driven back to Syris means they invaded Iraq from Syria in the first place, which was my point. > [@John\_Mace](#): > > I never said Obama should have seen this attack coming. > Are you still beating your wife? > > However, if Iraqi forces prevail and drive ISIL back into Syria, they will have done it with US help. That does not speak well to the idea that Iraq is “self-reliant”. > OK, I’m at a loss as to why you would ask if the discussion about Syria and ISIL will be over if the Iraqis drive ISIL back into Syria. This thread is about the Syrian civil war, of which ISIL is an important part. > [@John\_Mace](#): > > Note the tense of the verb “to see” in the first sentence. Past tense. If I wanted to refer to what is happening now in Iraq, I would have said “what we _are seeing_…” I’m sure most posters here understand that I was referring to the violence we SAW in Iraq in the years immediately after the deposing of SH. That violence peaked in 2006/2007. Syria, as some of us know, has even more ethnic division than Iraq does. > > So far, Civil War II hasn’t escalated to the level of Civil War I, but we’ll have to see how this plays out. Many a ME expert likens Iraq to Humpty Dumpty. There is an eerie parallel to what we’re seeing in the ME today and what saw almost exactly 100 years ago in Europe. I am referring to your statement “I never said Obama should have seen this attack coming.” In order to show you that you certainly did. You have now defined the 2006 sectarian violence in Iraq as a playground spat if the shit hits the fan in Syria when Assad falls. To me that means the current problems in Iraq would thus far be considered by you to be a slumber party pillow fight. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/132 "2014-06-29T17:07:10Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’m at a complete loss as to why you would ask if something that happened several years ago is a challenge to the Iraqi government today. It’s a challenge because it **never ended,** and now is heating up again. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/133 "2014-06-29T17:08:02Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > I am referring to your statement “I never said Obama should have seen this attack coming.” In order to show you that you certainly did… And yet you have failed to quote where I said that. Why do you suppose that is? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/134 "2014-06-29T17:13:54Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > You would have to be convinced that ISIS has no outside help to be able to launch this assault on Iraq in the first place . . . Who do you think is helping them? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/135 "2014-06-29T17:43:15Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > And yet you have failed to quote where I said that. Why do you suppose that is? > [@Why the US left Iraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-us-left-iraq/690750/36): > > But Obama told us all that he was pulling everyone out and that he was leaving a stable and capable Iraqi Defense Force behind. So, he either lied to us or didn’t know what he was talking about. When did we find out that a large portion of Iraq’s Defense Forces were not capable to maintain stability in Iraq? Had so many ISF troops not shed their uniforms and ran away from the first major challenge in mid June this year you would not have been able to post you insidious accusation against the President that he was either lying or did not know what he was talking about. Why and how could you make your claim if ISIS did not attack the way they did or if the ISF had stood their ground and were driven back in the immediate three days if battle. Based upon your original inflammatory claim about Obama it has to be in your mind had the latter occurred you would have to say Obama was telling the truth when he said he was leaving a “capable Iraqi Defense Force behind”. How can you wiggle your way out of that? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/136 "2014-06-29T17:50:57Z")
Look. I am not going to continue this absurd hijack. If you want to claim I said “X”, you need to quote where I said “X”. As far as I’m concerned, this subject is closed. Do the other posters in this thread a favor and drop it. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/137 "2014-06-29T18:40:27Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Look. I am not going to continue this absurd hijack. If you want to claim I said “X”, you need to quote where I said “X”. As far as I’m concerned, this subject is closed. Do the other posters in this thread a favor and drop it. This question I asked is too much for you. Duly Noted. “When did we find out that a large portion of Iraq’s Defense Forces were not capable to maintain stability in Iraq?” The answer is not in 2011 when Obama honestly and truthfully addressed the troops. Obama was not lying about the capacity of the Iraq Army in 2011. That is a fact that has overwhelmed you at this point. So I will drop it as you wish. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/138 "2014-06-29T18:45:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Who do you think is helping them? Financial Support had to come from somewhere. I can tell you that it most likely was not the Government of Iraq or Iran. Perhaps all the original fighters in ISIS came in with all their own resources and money and weapons and such, but I doubt that. That leaves outside help from places other than Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/139 "2014-06-29T19:13:35Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Financial Support had to come from somewhere. I can tell you that it most likely was not the Government of Iraq or Iran. Perhaps all the original fighters in ISIS came in with all their own resources and money and weapons and such, but I doubt that. That leaves outside help from places other than Iraq. Whom do you suspect, then? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2014, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919/140 "2014-06-29T19:28:41Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Whom do you suspect, then? Suspect is a better phrase. One Suspect is good ole Prince Bandar: > [@](#): > > “Thank God for the Saudis and Prince Bandar,” John McCain told CNN’s Candy Crowley in January 2014. “Thank God for the Saudis and Prince Bandar, and for our Qatari friends,” the senator said once again a month later, at the Munich Security Conference. > > McCain was praising Prince Bandar bin Sultan, then the head of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence services and a former ambassador to the United States, for supporting forces fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. McCain and Senator Lindsey Graham had previously met with Bandar to encourage the Saudis to arm Syrian rebel forces. > > But shortly after McCain’s Munich comments, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah relieved Bandar of his Syrian covert-action portfolio, which was then transferred to Saudi Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. By mid-April, just two weeks after President Obama met with King Abdullah on March 28, Bandar had also been removed from his position as head of Saudi intelligence—according to official government statements, at “his own request.” Sources close to the royal court told me that, in fact, the king fired Bandar over his handling of the kingdom’s Syria policy and other simmering tensions, after initially refusing to accept Bandar’s offers to resign. (Bandar retains his title as secretary-general of the king’s National Security Council.) [http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/isis-saudi-arabia-iraq-syria-bandar/373181/](http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/isis-saudi-arabia-iraq-syria-bandar/373181/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/syria-is-there-any-way-this-can-end-well/611919.md?page=8)