# Take a guess at when you will end up being vaccinated **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [December 27, 2020, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006 "2020-12-27T04:33:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/522 "2021-03-20T13:28:24Z")
Tiers in MN are bonkers – I’m 50+ (but \< 55), which puts me in phase 1b tier 4. The county only had “18-54” as an age range so I asked if they could detect that I am in that tier by my birth date. (I also am registered at the state level and at a local pharmacy) At least in the county they are doing 1b tier 2-3 so if they properly categorize me it might happen soon (geologically speaking). Mid April? Brian ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/523 "2021-03-20T14:20:06Z")
I’m in New York. I was making a general comment. Maybe it’s not applicable to California. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/524 "2021-03-20T15:02:47Z")
> [@teelabrown](#): > > Maybe even not a CVS, as long as it’s the same vaccine (Moderna)? That part I don’t know. You definitely need to get the same vaccine both times. After you get the first jab, try to reschedule the second one. It may take a few tries. It doesn’t have to be on the exact day; you have a few days on either side. The reschedule process will make sure that the second date is in the correct zone. I’m really glad that you found a solution. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/525 "2021-03-20T15:06:49Z")
Okay, let’s look at the California numbers again in regards to me getting vaccinated: There are currently 20.35 million people eligible to receive the vaccine in the three tiers announced so far. I’m not in those tiers. As of today, 11.8% of the state has been fully vaccinated, or 4.6 million people. So there’s 15.69m eligible people ahead of me. Last weeks numbers: > [@squeegee](#): > > As of today, 9.1% or 3.6 million people of the now 20.35 million total eligible for vaccination are fully vaccinated. So now there’s 16.75 million unvaccinated people ahead of me in line. It’s going to be a bit of a wait for me. So they’re basically fully vaccinating about a million people a week, which means 15 weeks from now before they exhaust the first tiers, obviously depending on how many people refuse the vaccine which there seems to be no data about. If everyone took the vaccine, I’d become eligible on the 3rd of July. If we spitball 60% uptake, that’s 9 weeks to exhaust the tiers, or May 22. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/526 "2021-03-20T15:08:35Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > I’m in New York. I was making a general comment. Maybe it’s not applicable to California. Are you aware of anyone who got their first dose at a NY CVS who was prevented by the system from getting the second dose at a different location? It’s certainly plausible that different States would have different rules for something like this so maybe you could cite where NY law doesn’t allow it. If not, there’s no reason why the CVS system wouldn’t allow that flexibility elsewhere. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/527 "2021-03-20T15:11:40Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > maybe you could cite where NY law doesn’t allow it. I > **[seconddoseguidance\_0.pdf](https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2021/02/seconddoseguidance_0.pdf)** > > 92.69 KB > Those who receive the first vaccine must return to the same location to receive the second dose. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/528 "2021-03-20T15:15:35Z")
ETA: The reason for this, AIUI, has to do with allocation of doses. The location reports to the State that they have x appointments made for second doses, all of them for people who actually showed up for and got the first; and the state then makes sure that they get sufficient vaccine at the right time to provide those second doses, as a batch labeled for that purpose and separate from any vaccine they’re supplied with at the time for first doses. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/529 "2021-03-20T15:20:30Z")
Thanks for that cite but it’s a guidance and not a law. Even the guidance provides exceptions near the end. I just looked at the CVS website for NY and would have been able to schedule a second dose anywhere in the State so it works for NY too. Maybe this is because CVS has a Federal contract so doesn’t have to follow the suggestions from the state department of health. Bottom line, the process for the second dose works in NY for the CVS chain. ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/530 "2021-03-20T15:23:16Z")
My family is largely in California. My entire immediate family has been vaccinated (28-95 age range). My nephew, in his early 30’s, was vaccinated two weeks ago. He has no co-morbidities for COVID (unless they’ve added hypochondria). All of his employees, in their 20’s, have been vaccinated. They are all in Mendocino County, which is rural, so that may have been a factor. However, I’ll point to my advice upthread: > [@Take a guess at when you will end up being vaccinated](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/426): > > Regardless of what “group” you think you are part of my advice is: Don’t just passively wait to be notified. Check out the website/information your state/county/town has on vaccinations and sites, sign up to waiting lists if they are available, sign up for notifications, and keep checking back periodically. Try getting an appointment, regardless. My take on the ethics is that it is important to get as many vaccinated as possible in the shortest period of time. If you can get an appointment … My take on the California vaccination approach (which is county by county, so in a sprawling, populous state may not be uniform) is that they prioritize certain groups, but they want to vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible, so if you ask and they have shots available, you’re probably going to get vaccinated. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/531 "2021-03-20T15:29:02Z")
> [@peccavi](#): > > My take on the California vaccination approach (which is county by county, so in a sprawling, populous state may not be uniform) is that they prioritize certain groups, but they want to vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible, so if you ask and they have shots available, you’re probably going to get vaccinated. I have asked. I’m registered with the county and state HDs, and I’m told I’ll be notified. I don’t know what more I could do. Pitch a tent outside a CVS and kvetch at passersby? I’m sure as hell not going to claim some infirmity I don’t have, and I’m ashamed of people who do so. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/532 "2021-03-20T15:33:11Z")
> [@peccavi](#): > > Try getting an appointment, regardless. My take on the ethics is that it is important to get as many vaccinated as possible in the shortest period of time. If you can get an appointment without misrepresenting the facts, then go for it. This is an interesting discussion on its own. You definitely have to be very proactive to have the best chance of getting vaccinated. It’s trivially easy in most places to jump the line and get one and it’s tempting to do so but I can’t bring myself to do it. I looked up every one of my ailments and conditions and (damn it) none of them make you worse off of you catch covid. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/533 "2021-03-20T15:36:05Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > I have asked. I’m registered with the county and state HDs, and I’m told I’ll be notified. I don’t know what more I could do. Pitch a tent outside a CVS and kvetch at passersby? I’m sure as hell not going to claim some infirmity I don’t have, and I’m ashamed of people who do so. As soon as the state allows a group where you belong, start slamming the CVS or Walgreens or Kaiser or whatever web pages until you get an appointment. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/534 "2021-03-20T15:40:35Z")
[quote=“hajario, post:529, topic:929006”] it’s a guidance and not a law. Even the guidance provides exceptions near the end. [. . .] Maybe this is because CVS has a Federal contract so doesn’t have to follow the suggestions from the state department of health. [/quote] Very little about covid rules, of any sort, has gone through the process of enacting laws in state legislatures. By the time they went through that, the rules might well change; it wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense to enact into full scale state law something that might only be so for a few weeks. CVS site says, or did until recently, that they were following state regulations as to eligibility. During the time that NY said that pharmacies could only vaccinate people over 65 and not those eligible for other reasons, that’s what CVS was doing in NY, though not in states that were allocating otherwise. I suppose it’s possible that they’re violating NY policies on second appointments and not on other state policies. The exceptions clause reads: > Limited circumstances may arise where individuals will need to receive their second dose at a different location than their first. Due to limited supply, each such circumstance must be evaluated to determine the most appropriate solution, including requiring the patient to return to original location if feasible, evaluating the impact of extending the interval between doses, or making arrangements for receipt of the second dose at a different provider. That’s not a guarantee that anybody can get their second dose at a different location just because they don’t feel like driving that far a second time, even though they were able and willing to drive that far the first time. Allowing the dose to be given somewhere else is only one of three possibilities to be evaluated on a case by case basis. So I most certainly wouldn’t count on it in NYState. ---
**Author:** ![racer72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/racer72/32/3075_2.png) [@racer72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racer72)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/535 "2021-03-20T15:41:06Z")
Washington state just revised the schedule for shots effective March 31. It includes the 60 to 64 age group so my wife and I can get our shots. Apparently I have to wait till then to sign up, I tried to sign us up at 3 different websites and we were rejected because we are not 65. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/536 "2021-03-20T15:50:50Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > That’s not a guarantee that anybody can get their second dose at a different location just because they don’t feel like driving that far a second time, even though they were able and willing to drive that far the first time. Allowing the dose to be given somewhere else is only one of three possibilities to be evaluated on a case by case basis. So I most certainly wouldn’t count on it in NYState. There are definitely no guarantees in life but I literally went through the process less than an hour ago. I would have been able to schedule a second dose at any CVS in NY and it didn’t even ask where I got my first dose. It wouldn’t have even had to have been at a CVS. I could have even gotten the first dose out of state. I help run a Facebook group for COVID information in my area so I am back to speaking locally again but I’ve read a lot of anecdotes. CVS apparently has a policy of not strictly verifying information prior to making an appointment or when one shows up. It’s the honor system. They don’t want to be in the business of policing and I don’t blame them. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/538 "2021-03-20T15:58:01Z")
My youngest is out at college in Mass. They are talking - if they can manage it, on making the college a community vaccination site - the school is urban and that will support the community as well as the students. I’m not sure they’ll manage it - with Covid distancing the athletic center is used for testing, the cafeteria doesn’t have room…then again, maybe the administration building - there haven’t been a lot of people showing up in the admin building for the past year and it has a big enough lobby that - from my own experience working clinics - they can easily do 300 a day if they throw up a tent in the parking lot for observation. . ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/539 "2021-03-20T16:00:59Z")
I’m a vaccine volunteer in Minnesota. Its moving fast. 25% of the total population has at least one shot. I think your mid-April guess is pretty good. I have a friend just short of his 65th birthday, but unlike my husband who got vaccinated under the +55 and in need of losing more than a few pounds rule, has no conditions that qualify him to move up a tier. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/540 "2021-03-20T16:01:13Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > There are definitely no guarantees in life but I literally went through the process less than an hour ago. I would have been able to schedule a second dose at any CVS in NY and it didn’t even ask where I got my first dose. You’re in California, I gather. I wonder if the site recognized that, and assumed you were scheduling a second dose in NY because you wouldn’t be in California at the right time. But OK, it’s possible that CVS doesn’t want to be enforcing anything and will in practice give a shot to anybody who makes an appointment at any CVS, without checking in any way whether they’re actually eligible to do so. I still don’t think it would be legitimate, in NY, to get your first shot at one location while figuring on getting the second shot somewhere else just because you didn’t want to drive that far. You’re screwing with NY’s allocation process. If you don’t want to drive that far (which is entirely legitimate in itself), then wait till you can get the first shot somewhere you are willing to go back to. If California’s doing it differently, then California’s doing it differently. If your car breaks down unexpectedly between dose #1 and #2, or your driver gets thrown into quarantine, or something like that, that would change the situation. But NY does have legitimate reason for the rule, and I think we’ll all get through this better if people follow the process for wherever they are. Do you support people claiming to be older than they are, or to have health conditions they don’t have, if they can get away with that at CVS? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/541 "2021-03-20T16:10:01Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > Do you support people claiming to be older than they are, or to have health conditions they don’t have, if they can get away with that at CVS? I absolutely do not and I said so in an earlier post (which it’s understandable that you missed). I’m waiting my turn. I don’t have an issue with someone getting their legitimate second shot at a more convenient location and neither does CVS. They are in control of their own supply so the stated reason of inventory control doesn’t apply. They can easily shift supply amongst their locations which is a luxury that independent urgent care facilities do not have. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2021, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006/542 "2021-03-20T16:29:44Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > CVS. They are in control of their own supply Doses are allocated to the states, which then allocate them to the pharmacies. Pharmacies are getting an additional 10% of doses directly from the federal government. CVS isn’t in control of the allocation in either form until after they get their hands on it. Do you mean that in practice they can use the 10% from the feds to give second doses to people in the wrong place, and/or that in practice they can use some of what NY gave them specifically for first doses to give second doses? That may be true; but it would still mean that some pharmacies would get second doses that were specifically allocated for people who won’t show up there, which increases the chances that they’ll be wasted if there’s not sufficient wait list which can show up on short notice. Moving those doses around between pharmacies on short notice is only going to work if the relevant pharmacies are close together; which wouldn’t be the case if people aren’t returning to Y because X is much closer to home. As long as there are enough people on the wait list living really close to the pharmacies in question the problem will be masked. But that isn’t always going to happen. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/take-a-guess-at-when-you-will-end-up-being-vaccinated/929006.md?page=28)