# Talk Me Off the Ledge **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408 "2016-11-01T23:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/181 "2016-11-06T07:54:06Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’ve seen some reports that say a larger than usual number of Hispanics have registered. But I’m not counting them as a demographic that will put Trump in office. I just read one report that says early hispanic absentee votes are significantly more numerous than normal. In Florida, it’s twice the usual amount. This is very good news. Trump’s lead in Florida is very thin and hispanics are a significant demographic. If they turn out in high numbers to vote against him, he could easily lose Florida and that will pretty much end his hopes for getting elected. And this is based on actual votes that have been cast; not polls or punditry. > **[News, Politics, Sports, Mail & Latest Headlines](https://www.aol.com/)** > > Discover the latest breaking news in the U.S. and around the world — politics, weather, entertainment, lifestyle, finance, sports and much more. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/182 "2016-11-06T12:16:03Z")
I’ve pointed out that Clinton’s lead is within the zone of polling error. However, my feeling for at least the past week or two has been that if anyone out-performs the polls it’ll be Hillary. This is not at all scientific but in the last four races, it has been the “safe” candidate who has performed better on election day. By safe I mean the more experienced (McCain) or the incumbent (\*Gore, Bush, and Obama) \*Gore was a de facto incumbent, IMO. Now this could be due to just random chance, but I suspect that when undecideds actually do show up at the polls and vote, they go with their gut, and their instincts tend to be risk averse. Donald Trump is an exciting candidate, but he’s the riskier candidate, and even those who don’t like Hillary probably feel that way. Beyond that, I completely agree with others here on SDMB who reject the notion of shy Trump voters. Trump voters are not at all shy. They don’t all carpet post Facebook and social media but they’re not reluctant to admit their support for Trump unless they’re a professor in academia. Trump’s supporters have been consistently accounted for in the polls. Moreover, I think that given his demographics, they’re probably much easier to access than Clinton’s voters, who tend to be younger, more diverse, and less likely to respond to polls and less easily accessed by polling organizations. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/183 "2016-11-06T12:36:11Z")
There are some more-grounded reasons to think the chance of polling error is disproportionately in Clinton’s favor: 1. More Spanish-language supporters, which media polls tend to be bad at identifying 2. Better GOTV at getting unlikely voters to the polls 3. Bad news response bias (to the extent the polls are showing some degree of response bias instead of reflecting voter preferences, they are probably off in Trump’s favor since they moved decidedly toward him recently). It will be interesting to see! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/184 "2016-11-06T14:42:09Z")
Front Page Headline today on the NYT (paraphrased as I don’t have my copy with me right now): **Surge in Latino Early Voters** \*\* A benefit for Clinton.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/185 "2016-11-06T14:47:24Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > …It will be interesting to see! Interesting, like waiting in the doctor’s office for the test results is “interesting”. Your attention is absorbed but you’d rather be anywhere else, doing anything but. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/186 "2016-11-06T14:48:08Z")
That supports the hypothesis that the extremely Clinton-friendly numbers in Nevada may be also true in Florida. (It was plausible it wouldn’t be. “Hispanics” are not all the same people; folks of Mexican heritage could react very different than folks of Cuban or South American heritage.) If so, Trump’s chances are certainly much worse than 538 believes, for sure, and a lot closer to the 99 percent Sam Wang believes (I think… he tweeted he might have made an error in his model, but he hasn’t updated his site.) For Trump, losing Nevada would be bad. Losing Arizona would be extremely bad. Losing Florida is the whole election. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/187 "2016-11-06T21:11:37Z")
Wow Dopers! I asked you to do something to cheer me up. How did you pull [this](http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/06/politics/comey-tells-congress-fbi-has-not-changed-conclusions/index.html/) off? You all are a powerful bunch. 😃 Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/188 "2016-11-06T22:31:55Z")
> [@Honey](#): > > Wow Dopers! I asked you to do something to cheer me up. How did you pull [this](http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/06/politics/comey-tells-congress-fbi-has-not-changed-conclusions/index.html/) off? You all are a powerful bunch. 😃 > > Thank you. I’ve barely followed the Clinton email saga. I know I should, both because I’m a concerned citizen and because I’m in the information security profession. But I just haven’t really cared much because I can’t imagine anything in the emails that would make me want to vote for Trump. With that preamble… It seems that Comey is pretty much a fucking idiot, isn’t he? Why get everyone worked up before you even bother to check if there’s anything new in the emails? I’m a computer forensic examiner. I investigate security incidents all day for a living. And my general rule is not to go and shoot off my mouth before I have at least _examined the evidence_. But maybe things are different over at the FBI. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/189 "2016-11-06T22:35:40Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > I’ve barely followed the Clinton email saga. I know I should, both because I’m a concerned citizen and because I’m in the information security profession. But I just haven’t really cared much because I can’t imagine anything in the emails that would make me want to vote for Trump. > > With that preamble… It seems that Comey is pretty much a fucking idiot, isn’t he? Why get everyone worked up before you even bother to check if there’s anything new in the emails? > > I’m a computer forensic examiner. I investigate security incidents all day for a living. And my general rule is not to go and shoot off my mouth before I have at least _examined the evidence_. But maybe things are different over at the FBI. It is supposed to work that way at the FBI as well. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/190 "2016-11-06T23:32:15Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > … > I’m a computer forensic examiner. I investigate security incidents all day for a living. And my general rule is not to go and shoot off my mouth before I have at least _examined the evidence_. But maybe things are different over at the FBI. Well, there might be an opening soon. :rolleyes: I hear it pays pretty well. Boy would it be fabulous or what to have a Doper as head of the FBI?!? You could tell us all kinds of things and we would pinky-swear to keep it all, like, totally secret. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/191 "2016-11-07T01:43:11Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Well, there might be an opening soon. :rolleyes: I hear it pays pretty well. > > Boy would it be fabulous or what to have a Doper as head of the FBI?!? You could tell us all kinds of things and we would pinky-swear to keep it all, like, totally secret. MPSIMS - “Ask the head of the FBI” 😉 ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/192 "2016-11-07T01:53:34Z")
Monday and Tuesday are going to be highly stressful for America. Candidates would be wise to put on bullet proof armor for the time being this week. Personally, if I’m going outside on Wednesday, I predict nothing will happen, but then again, who knows? ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/193 "2016-11-07T05:01:49Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Well, there might be an opening soon. :rolleyes: I hear it pays pretty well. > > Boy would it be fabulous or what to have a Doper as head of the FBI?!? You could tell us all kinds of things and we would pinky-swear to keep it all, like, totally secret. I’m angling for head of the NSA. I’ll let you all know how it goes. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/194 "2016-11-07T05:34:32Z")
I’ll take NGA (the little-known, but large and important, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/195 "2016-11-07T05:55:35Z")
Not _now_ you won’t, blabbermouth! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/196 "2016-11-07T06:04:47Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Not _now_ you won’t, blabbermouth! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/197 "2016-11-07T06:08:45Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I’ll take NGA (the little-known, but large and important, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency). They have a huge presence here in St Louis. I applied to them once I think. They didn’t hire me. Fuckers. If you take the reins there before I assume control of the NSA, let me know! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/198 "2016-11-07T17:16:36Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > That particular poll is iffy. But I think it does indicate that the _last_ part of Hillary’s steady decline was due to the Comey letter, and now that that news cycle has passed, we’re seeing a small natural rebound, about to where she _would_ have been if the Comey thing hadn’t happened. > > In other words, still very much in oh-shit-land, but not dipping down into OH-SHIT-land. I expect a modest uptick in 538 Polls Only from 64% to around 69% or 70% by Monday, and then that’s it – time to start biting your _toenails_. What do I win? Halfway through Monday, and she’s at 67.9% and climbing. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/199 "2016-11-07T21:26:15Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > That particular poll is iffy. But I think it does indicate that the _last_ part of Hillary’s steady decline was due to the Comey letter, and now that that news cycle has passed, we’re seeing a small natural rebound, about to where she _would_ have been if the Comey thing hadn’t happened. > > In other words, still very much in oh-shit-land, but not dipping down into OH-SHIT-land. I expect a modest uptick in 538 Polls Only from 64% to around 69% or 70% by Monday, and then that’s it – time to start biting your _toenails_. I love it when Nate Silver practically quotes me word-for-word, though he waited until it actually _happened:_ > [@Nate Silver](#): > > There are signs of late momentum for Hillary Clinton, whose lead has increased to roughly 3.5 percentage points over Donald Trump. Her chances of winning the Electoral College have ticked up to 69 percent in both the polls-only and polls-plus models, recovering some of the ground she lost after FBI director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Oct. 28. ---
**Author:** ![Algernon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a183cd/32.png) [@Algernon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algernon)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/200 "2016-11-08T15:52:44Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Well, there might be an opening soon. :rolleyes: I hear it pays pretty well. > > Boy would it be fabulous or what to have a Doper as head of the FBI?!? You could tell us all kinds of things and we would pinky-swear to keep it all, like, totally secret. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=11)