# Talk Me Off the Ledge **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408 "2016-11-01T23:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/61 "2016-11-02T17:49:56Z")
Jump if you must, but vote first. (Would make quite the absentee voter application. “Have determined to suicide, will not be available”.) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/62 "2016-11-02T18:01:42Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Please explain what “real damage” Clinton can do. The biggest danger I see is her ordering a Syrian no-fly zone that ends up with us in a shooting war with Russia. I don’t think it’s terribly likely, but I’d call it an outside possibility, that in a worst case scenario ends in a nuclear holocaust. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/63 "2016-11-02T18:04:16Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > Ohio and Iowa are Trump leans at the moment. > > Florida, North Carolina, Nevada (or Nevaaahda as Trump pronounced it), Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are all Clinton leans according to 538. The only one that’s a strong lean is probably Pennsylvania. Trump will probably take Florida and North Carolina, and we just don’t have enough good data about NH and Colorado yet. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/64 "2016-11-02T18:07:32Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Tell me it won’t happen- please… If you’re looking for good news, do NOT check the latest polls (released November 2) at RCP. The latest five national polls averaged show an exact tie: 44/44/4/2. (Og only knows where Johnson voters stand, but I hope some of the Stein voters (2%) sober up and decide not to waste their votes.) And Hillary cannot tolerate a popular-vote tie. Because of EC specifics (e.g. the huge waste of Democratic votes in NY and CA), a Democrat candidate needs a 1% popular-vote edge to win the electoral vote. North Carolina? Latest polls show Trump slightly ahead. Florida? Latest polls show Trump slightly ahead. Ohio? Trump is significantly ahead. New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Colorado are the key states. If Trump wins _any one_ of these he’ll be the 45th President of the United States. (Hillary can counter NH by winning all of the remaining swing states, WI+CO+NV – unlikely.) Hillary was up very slightly in Colorado in the most recent poll, but it was conducted before Comey’s revelation had effect. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/65 "2016-11-02T18:08:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Based on the early voting numbers in NV compared to 2012, Hillary has a big lead, 5 or 6 points. That’s several points above the polling averages and aggregates. > > And the same thing happened in 2012, by the way – polling underestimated Dem vote in NV, probably due to Hispanic voters being underpolled. You seem to be clinging to these early voting numbers with all the determination of a drowning man thrown a lifeline. [Here is a just-released Nevada poll by CNN that is Trump +6](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf). It’s certainly possible that it’s wrong, but why ignore all the polling data in favor of some early voting numbers? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/66 "2016-11-02T18:15:23Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You seem to be clinging to these early voting numbers with all the determination of a drowning man thrown a lifeline. [Here is a just-released Nevada poll by CNN that is Trump +6](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf). > > It’s certainly possible that it’s wrong, but why ignore all the polling data in favor of some early voting numbers? They’re real voting numbers, for one thing. And the polls have a history (2012 and Senate in 2010) of being wrong – in one direction – for Nevada. I’m certainly not convinced, but I’m not as worried as I was before I read about this. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/67 "2016-11-02T18:21:31Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > Ohio and Iowa are Trump leans at the moment. > > Florida, North Carolina, Nevada (or Nevaaahda as Trump pronounced it), Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are all Clinton leans according to 538. This morning’s 538 now-cast has NC and FL as slightly pink. I don’t understand the worry about continuing gridlock, considering every thing I see shows the Dems taking back the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/68 "2016-11-02T18:24:26Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > This morning’s 538 now-cast has NC and FL as slightly pink. > > I don’t understand the worry about continuing gridlock, considering every thing I see shows the Dems taking back the Senate. Well, then\* we have to make sure that happens!\* ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/69 "2016-11-02T18:31:56Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > They’re real voting numbers, for one thing. And the polls have a history (2012 and Senate in 2010) of being wrong – in one direction – for Nevada. Did you ever check the 2014 gubernatorial polls vs results? [They were off badly as well, but in the opposite direction](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/nv/nevada_governor_sandoval_vs_goodman-5103.html#polls). Admittedly, it wasn’t a well-polled race (only three polls after July, all from the same outfit). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/70 "2016-11-02T18:33:12Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Did you ever check the 2014 gubernatorial polls vs results? [They were off badly as well, but in the opposite direction](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/nv/nevada_governor_sandoval_vs_goodman-5103.html#polls). Admittedly, it wasn’t a well-polled race (only three polls after July, all from the same outfit). Another data point. Thanks. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/71 "2016-11-02T18:44:27Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Seriously. If you want to do something to actually make a difference rather than feel like you need to plummet to your grizzly death I was going to suggest you meant to write _grisly_ death, but a death involving grizzlies (in addition to plummeting) isn’t likely to be much fun, either. Or maybe it’s a metaphor for Russia, in which case - good show. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/72 "2016-11-02T18:45:47Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I was going to suggest you meant to write _grisly_ death, but a death involving grizzlies (in addition to plummeting) isn’t likely to be much fun, either. > > Or maybe it’s a metaphor for Russia, in which case - good show. Oh I totally meant the bear thing. Plus the Russian thing. Obviously, it wasn’t the incorrect-spelling-of-the-word thing. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/73 "2016-11-02T18:52:26Z")
There are no Grizzly Bears in Russia. There is the very rare Groznya Bear, a species so ugly that they cannot mate unless both are blind. Hence, the rarity. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/74 "2016-11-02T19:49:41Z")
Around the beginning of the year I already said this was a win-win election for Democrats no matter what. If Hillary wins, she wins. If she loses, then Trump will muck things up so badly that the Democrats will regain the White House in 2020 and own it for a decade or two. It’s just short-term gratification vs. long-term gratification. ---
**Author:** ![Totenfeier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/4bbf92/32.png) [@Totenfeier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Totenfeier)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/75 "2016-11-02T21:39:30Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Around the beginning of the year I already said this was a win-win election for Democrats no matter what. > > If Hillary wins, she wins. > > If she loses, then Trump will muck things up so badly that the Democrats will regain the White House in 2020 and own it for a decade or two. > > It’s just short-term gratification vs. long-term gratification. Assuming that there IS still a White House, and not a smoking, irradiated ruin. Yes, hysterical hyperbole - but not by much. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/76 "2016-11-02T22:23:23Z")
Overall, the responses make me feel marginally better. Incidentally, I am in NH, so I have a valuable vote… Well, we are only 4 EC votes but I suppose it could come down to it. Around here the Trump lawn signs way outnumber the Hillary signs, but I don’t know how much that means. Personally, I have never seen much value in those things. I can’t imagine someone changing his mind due to seeing a lawn sign. The thing that I really, truly, honestly can’t figure out is how a Trump voter thinks it’s going to play out when Trump visits the G8, or a UN meeting, or any such interaction. I mean, would these guys ask their crazy stupid uncle to represent them in court? ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/77 "2016-11-02T22:26:19Z")
> [@Totenfeier](#): > > Assuming that there IS still a White House, and not a smoking, irradiated ruin. > > Yes, hysterical hyperbole - but not by much. It wouldn’t be smoking and irradiated. It would be vacant in disrepair, missing all its copper piping, overgrown weeds surrounding it and a rain-soaked condemnation notice half-attached to the front door. ---
**Author:** ![HeXen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@HeXen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeXen)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/78 "2016-11-02T22:44:17Z")
Logic reasons that the poor will still be poor. The rich still rich and the middle class will still get up and go to work everyday and there will still be a war to fight somewhere and problems to solve or ignore just as it has for every president we’ve had this century. All else is just irrational fear because there is nothing to indicate that the world will be doomed from 1 countries election. ---
**Author:** ![Merejane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a6a055/32.png) [@Merejane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merejane)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/79 "2016-11-02T22:54:15Z")
> [@HeXen](#): > > All else is just irrational fear because there is nothing to indicate that the world will be doomed from 1 countries election. I disagree. Although there is still so much more that needs to be done, Obama has made a fair amount of progress addressing climate change. I think that will be his greatest legacy. Trump has said he will undo all that, and I think he would have the power as president. (If I’m wrong about that, I’d love to hear it!) And he sure won’t make any more progress than Obama already has. I think that pretty clearly affects the whole world, and could in fact doom us. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/80 "2016-11-03T01:12:58Z")
> [@HeXen](#): > > Logic reasons that the poor will still be poor. The rich still rich and the middle class will still get up and go to work everyday and there will still be a war to fight somewhere and problems to solve or ignore just as it has for every president we’ve had this century. All else is just irrational fear because there is nothing to indicate that the world will be doomed from 1 countries election. When the _United States_ is that 1 country, it’s not that irrational. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=5)