# Talk Me Off the Ledge **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408 "2016-11-01T23:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/81 "2016-11-03T01:32:44Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Please explain what “real damage” Clinton can do. > [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Do you have any _specific_ criticism of Clinton, because if all she has to be is “shady”, then _any_ failing of her presidency (and of course, there will be such failings - no president an possibly avoid them) can be interpreted as damage to the country, and indeed hyped gleefully by Fox as _massive_ damage to the country. My point was that she could damage the country if she choses to follow an unwise course while the more psycho candidate really can’t due to the animosity he’s built up in Washington. ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/82 "2016-11-03T03:58:46Z")
This oughtta push you right off the ledge: [Almost All Last-Minute Bets Are for Trump, Paddy Power Says](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/91-percent-of-last-minute-bets-are-for-trump-paddy-power-says) I’m not a gambler, so the significance is lost on me. Are a lot of people making last-minute risky (perhaps small) bets? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/83 "2016-11-03T04:06:21Z")
That would make sense. The most famous poll aggregation site says Trump is a 30 percent bet but the betting sites are offering four to one or better. If you believe 538, that’s a rational bet. If you’re just going by one story that says one poll says it’s tied, it’s a very rational bet indeed (though a poorly informed one.) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/84 "2016-11-03T04:16:15Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > My point was that she could damage the country if she choses to follow an unwise course while the more psycho candidate really can’t due to the animosity he’s built up in Washington. Many of those mistreated by Trump are going back to supporting Trump or not minding him much now that he appears to have a better chance, what it is clear to me is that if Trump wins the power they want is more important than the country. So more than a few psycho things that should not be made into a new “normal” will be. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/85 "2016-11-03T04:33:30Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > My point was that she could damage the country if she choses to follow an unwise course while the more psycho candidate really can’t due to the animosity he’s built up in Washington. It seems you’re saying that Clinton is more dangerous because she’s competent, whereas Trump will not be a problem because he’s such a fuckup that he can’t get any of his asinine plans accomplished anyway. Somehow this does not give me comfort in the event of a Trump win. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/86 "2016-11-03T04:54:11Z")
Well, now that the Cubs have won the series… what are the odds of _two_ wildly unlikely events happening in early November? ---
**Author:** ![Sputnikkk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Sputnikkk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sputnikkk)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/87 "2016-11-03T08:27:03Z")
I can see a bright side to news coming out that says Hillary’s lead is challenged. It will give the more reluctant, complacent, couch potato type voters, a kick in the butt to get out and vote against president p\_\_sy groper. When all polls were showing Hillary having a 80% to 98% chance of winning that was even more dangerous because it could breed complacency. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/88 "2016-11-03T09:45:29Z")
> [@Sputnikkk](#): > > I can see a bright side to news coming out that says Hillary’s lead is challenged. It will give the more reluctant, complacent, couch potato type voters, a kick in the butt to get out and vote against president p\_\_sy groper. > > When all polls were showing Hillary having a 80% to 98% chance of winning that was even more dangerous because it could breed complacency. Although - Brexit again - the polls were narrow the week before the vote (Leave even in the lead in some) and people insisted the polls were wrong and Remain would win, and stayed home. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/89 "2016-11-03T11:38:00Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Although - Brexit again - the polls were narrow the week before the vote (Leave even in the lead in some) and people insisted the polls were wrong and Remain would win, and stayed home. True…but I haven’t come across widespread notions here that the “polls are wrong.” (Among a few Trumpistas, sure). If THAT were the case, the numerous Hillary voters on this message board wouldn’t be in such anguish right now. I WISH they were wrong. I’m FLABBERGASTED that so many people are voting by for Trump. But I don’t doubt for a second that it’s true. Why would I? The exact methods for each poll are clear. The potential errors are real, and unpredictable, but fall within certain curve-ranges, as a factual matter. Was the Brexit disbelief based on a serious critique of a certain polling method (e.g., an evidence-based observation that some specific bias or source of uncertainty was going unaddressed), or just head-in-the-sand silliness? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/90 "2016-11-03T12:00:16Z")
Trump isn’t really my concern anymore – the entire republican party is. There is a virulent strain of toxic partisanship within the party that won’t go away on election night, and if anything, they’re about to get even worse. There are some - not just some but many - on the right who insist that ‘this is their country’ and if they can’t have it, then nobody can. This election has awakened me to the fact that a not insignificant number of people would be okay with essentially ruining our economy and crippling our government if ‘the right people’ aren’t elected. That threat doesn’t end with Trump’s defeat on November. What Trump’s defeat would achieve is a very slight rejection of that faction, but it’s not nearly decisive enough. As one of the threads mentioned, things really will get worse before they get better. When the average less partisan white voter wakes up and realizes what damage the far right is doing to their country, then - and only then - will we recover. But there’s a lot of damage that can happen between now and then. Sorry I can’t talk anyone away from ledges here, but I think more people need to be frightened. I’m alarmed that more people aren’t. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/91 "2016-11-03T12:03:11Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Well, now that the Cubs have won the series… what are the odds of _two_ wildly unlikely events happening in early November? The Cubs were the favorites to win the World Series for the entire year. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/92 "2016-11-03T12:13:49Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > The Cubs were the favorites to win the World Series for the entire year. True. Maybe “once-a-century event” is more apt. In what way would a Trump win represent a clear and important “once-a-century” event? Not just something random (like “toupee-wearing president”), nor something particular to our time. Someone who never served in a political office, perhaps? (Eisenhower was last century’s example?). Or is there something that gets more to the heart of what makes Trump so, how do I say this, _bizarre_ a choice? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/93 "2016-11-03T16:43:43Z")
The ledge just got 10 feet higher. Trump at 35% now. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/94 "2016-11-03T17:20:22Z")
For those Hillary supporters getting nervous, try this: put yourself in a Trump supporter’s shoes. Barring a couple of brief stretches in the summer, your candidate has been consistently polling behind Clinton since he clinched the nomination. At times, he’s done so poorly his own party was calling on him to quit; at other times, like now, he’s come close enough to make it interesting. But the fact remains that the electoral map is not good for him — he needs to not just do well, but extraordinarily well to pull this off. And he’s hampered by a much smaller media budget and a much poorer GOTV operation. Early voting information is sketchy and not all of it is bad for him, but he needs a lot of good news, not just a little. If I were a Trump supporter, I’d be relieved to see the way the race is tightening, and it would give me hope that maybe my guy would come through. But honestly, Trump having only a 35% chance _in the most favorable poll aggregator out there_ would be having me shitting bricks. Whatever small lift he got from the Comey email hasn’t tipped the race: his support went up a bit, but Clinton’s has remained steady. Her floor has always been higher than his; he needs to lower it and he’s never been able to do that in a lasting way. I’m not saying it’s in the bag; it’s way closer than I would like and Trump absolutely could win. But the odds remain firmly against him. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/95 "2016-11-03T17:32:48Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You seem to be clinging to these early voting numbers with all the determination of a drowning man thrown a lifeline. [Here is a just-released Nevada poll by CNN that is Trump +6](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf). > > It’s certainly possible that it’s wrong, but why ignore all the polling data in favor of some early voting numbers? Are you seriously asking why anyone would take actual votes over poll numbers? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/96 "2016-11-03T17:37:16Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Around the beginning of the year I already said this was a win-win election for Democrats no matter what. > > If Hillary wins, she wins. > > If she loses, then Trump will muck things up so badly that the Democrats will regain the White House in 2020 and own it for a decade or two. > > It’s just short-term gratification vs. long-term gratification. Heard this crap when Reagan took office, and again with Bush Junior. Americans have an amazing ability to play “lobster in the pot”-Unless all the crap happens all at once, they will get used to getting their asses boiled over a period of time and just accept the status quo. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/97 "2016-11-03T17:58:50Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Are you seriously asking why anyone would take actual votes over poll numbers? 1. Maybe you missed the people who have pointed out that early voting trends are generally poor predictors of the final result? 2. I believe those looking at early votes & absentee ballots are just comparing the party registration of the voters, not counting their “actual votes”. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/98 "2016-11-03T18:01:02Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > For those Hillary supporters getting nervous, try this: put yourself in a Trump supporter’s shoes. Barring a couple of brief stretches in the summer, your candidate has been consistently polling behind Clinton since he clinched the nomination. At times, he’s done so poorly his own party was calling on him to quit; at other times, like now, he’s come close enough to make it interesting. But the fact remains that the electoral map is not good for him — he needs to not just do well, but extraordinarily well to pull this off. And he’s hampered by a much smaller media budget and a much poorer GOTV operation. Early voting information is sketchy and not all of it is bad for him, but he needs a lot of good news, not just a little. > > If I were a Trump supporter, I’d be relieved to see the way the race is tightening, and it would give me hope that maybe my guy would come through. But honestly, Trump having only a 35% chance _in the most favorable poll aggregator out there_ would be having me shitting bricks. Whatever small lift he got from the Comey email hasn’t tipped the race: his support went up a bit, but Clinton’s has remained steady. Her floor has always been higher than his; he needs to lower it and he’s never been able to do that in a lasting way. > > I’m not saying it’s in the bag; it’s way closer than I would like and Trump absolutely could win. But the odds remain firmly against him. I’d say Trump’s rosiest poll aggregator is [RealClearPolitics no-toss-ups map](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html). It’s 273-265 for HRC there. Trump still needs to flip one more state. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/99 "2016-11-03T18:10:38Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Overall, the responses make me feel marginally better. Incidentally, I am in NH, so I have a valuable vote… Well, we are only 4 EC votes but I suppose it could come down to it. Around here the Trump lawn signs way outnumber the Hillary signs, but I don’t know how much that means. Personally, I have never seen much value in those things. I can’t imagine someone changing his mind due to seeing a lawn sign. > > The thing that I really, truly, honestly can’t figure out is how a Trump voter thinks it’s going to play out when Trump visits the G8, or a UN meeting, or any such interaction. I mean, would these guys ask their crazy stupid uncle to represent them in court? You know, I think they would. After all, it worked out when Joe Pesci defended his cousin. And in the movies it all works out when the buffoon gets stuck in some crazy situation. Yeah, there’s lotsa laffs first and things look dire, but in the end all is well. (If Rodney Dangerfield was still alive, he’d make a great Trump in the comedy movie!) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/100 "2016-11-03T18:10:53Z")
> [@Sputnikkk](#): > > When all polls were showing Hillary having a 80% to 98% chance of winning that was even more dangerous because it could breed complacency. By this same logic, the polls showing Hillary with an 80-98% chance of winning would have depressed Trump turnout. It works both ways. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=6)