# Talk Me Off the Ledge **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408 "2016-11-01T23:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/101 "2016-11-03T18:13:19Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > …not counting their “actual votes”. TargetSmart did pretty much that, in Florida. You can access a list of voters in Florida who have already voted early. So, they did. They called people who voted, asked their political registration, and asked how they voted. 28% of Republican voters said they voted for HRC. [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/1/1589910/-Putting-The-TargetSmart-Florida-Bombshell-In-Perspective](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/1/1589910/-Putting-The-TargetSmart-Florida-Bombshell-In-Perspective) (There are any number of references to the poll, I just picked the _Daily Kos_ one to encourage and promote the spread of liberal cooties. You’re welcome!) First heard about this a few days ago, and gaped and otherwise flabbergasted. Figured I’d hold off until at least the next day, figuring that if it was an obvious ruse, it would be, like the soldier awakened at reveille, debunked. (You like that one? Got it from **Vinyl Turnip** , he gets the credit!) But no, not so far. And its a very unusual situation, this reliable a method for scrutinizing votes already cast is rare. Remember the NeverTrump movement in the Republican Party? I, for one, just assumed they would express their dismay simply by not voting. But consider: if, say, ten percent of Republican voters still retain some sanity, and they vote…well, I think you can readily see the implications. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/102 "2016-11-03T18:21:26Z")
[Clinton will win Nevada](http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog) (based on very good and comprehensive early vote numbers), and it probably won’t even be close: > [@](#): > > On the presidential (and maybe applies to the U.S. Senate, too), some math still holds: > > ----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes > > ----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes > > ----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes > > Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it’s almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge. > > If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now. If she wins Nevada, she doesn’t even need NH to get to 270 (and she’s probably going to be well above it, with NC and FL and maybe AZ). ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/103 "2016-11-03T18:23:48Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > TargetSmart did pretty much that, in Florida. You can access a list of voters in Florida who have already voted early. So, they did. They called people who voted, asked their political registration, and asked how they voted. 28% of Republican voters said they voted for HRC. > > [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/1/1589910/-Putting-The-TargetSmart-Florida-Bombshell-In-Perspective](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/1/1589910/-Putting-The-TargetSmart-Florida-Bombshell-In-Perspective) > > (There are any number of references to the poll, I just picked the _Daily Kos_ one to encourage and promote the spread of liberal cooties. You’re welcome!) > > First heard about this a few days ago, and gaped and otherwise flabbergasted. Figured I’d hold off until at least the next day, figuring that if it was an obvious ruse, it would be, like the soldier awakened at reveille, debunked. (You like that one? Got it from **Vinyl Turnip** , he gets the credit!) > > But no, not so far. And its a very unusual situation, this reliable a method for scrutinizing votes already cast is rare. Remember the NeverTrump movement in the Republican Party? I, for one, just assumed they would express their dismay simply by not voting. But consider: if, say, ten percent of Republican voters still retain some sanity, and they vote…well, I think you can readily see the implications. Calling people and asking them questions, and then extrapolating their answers to the wider population, is pretty much the definition of polling. We’re back to polling, not really “counting actual votes” because there’s a whole lot of guesswork and fudging numbers that goes into polling, as opposed to just counting all the actual votes. Also, I addressed some of the problems with the TargetSmart poll [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=19746177#post19746177) (as an added bonus, it’s also spreading the DailyKos cooties). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/104 "2016-11-03T18:23:51Z")
I’m going to be quite drunk Election Night. I’ve made the effort to remain sane and sober, but sometimes you just gotta pick one. If Hillary wins, I will sober up in a day or two. If not, fuck it, why bother? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/105 "2016-11-03T18:27:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Calling people and asking them questions, and then extrapolating their answers to the wider population, is pretty much the definition of polling. We’re back to polling, not really “counting actual votes” because there’s a whole lot of guesswork and fudging numbers that goes into polling, as opposed to just counting all the actual votes. > > Also, I addressed some of the problems with the TargetSmart poll [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=19746177#post19746177) (as an added bonus, it’s also spreading the DailyKos cooties). I agree it is more of a suggestion than a rock-solid, but then all polling has that quality. You gonna tell me you weren’t surprised and/or dismayed? Well, OK. Anway, my thrust is not that this is such a great way to poll, but that it suggests an undercurrent that we have not paid any attention to: sane Republicans, God bless 'em! 28% is too high? How much comfort would half that be? ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/106 "2016-11-03T18:37:23Z")
Question: Do polls somehow exclude early voters from their sampling of likely voters? I’ve heard anecdotally that if you vote early, you’ll stop getting harassed by pollsters (I’ve never been called; I only use a cell, but I don’t know if that makes a difference anymore). Here’s what I’m thinking (ok, “hoping”). There was a rush of early voters in favor of Clinton, from the “silent majority” of Americans horrified at the thought that Trump would get into office. What remains - the election day voters - is a roughly even mix of Clinton and Trump supporters. When they are combined, the predicted split in the popular vote, favoring Clinton, will re-emerge. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/107 "2016-11-03T19:17:21Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > 28% is too high? How much comfort would half that be? _shrug_ I don’t know. We typically expect candidates to get something like 90% of their registered party members. If Trump is only getting 86%, or 84%, or whatever the actual figure is, that’s obviously not good news for him. It seems that most of Trump’s recent rise in the polls has been credited to “Republicans coming home to him”. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/108 "2016-11-03T19:18:22Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Question: Do polls somehow exclude early voters from their sampling of likely voters? I’ve heard anecdotally that if you vote early, you’ll stop getting harassed by pollsters (I’ve never been called; I only use a cell, but I don’t know if that makes a difference anymore). > > Here’s what I’m thinking (ok, “hoping”). There was a rush of early voters in favor of Clinton, from the “silent majority” of Americans horrified at the thought that Trump would get into office. What remains - the election day voters - is a roughly even mix of Clinton and Trump supporters. When they are combined, the predicted split in the popular vote, favoring Clinton, will re-emerge. My vague impression is that the historical trend has been that early voting is more Dem and election-day voting is more Rep. But that could get thoroughly disrupted this year, so, who knows. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/109 "2016-11-03T19:18:55Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Question: Do polls somehow exclude early voters from their sampling of likely voters? I’ve heard anecdotally that if you vote early, you’ll stop getting harassed by pollsters (I’ve never been called; I only use a cell, but I don’t know if that makes a difference anymore). I don’t know the answer to the first, but when I had a landline, even though I was in Florida, I only got politically polled once. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/110 "2016-11-03T21:13:13Z")
One comforting fact is that there doesn’t appear to be a large group of “hidden” voters in this election. For example, there was an unexpectedly large turnout of young voters in 2008 and the majority of them voted for Obama. I’ve seen some people arguing that there might be a similar surprise turnout for Trump on Election Day. But pollsters have learned to watch for signs. They obviously can’t predict who will show up at the polls next week. But by now, we know a lot about who’s registering to vote. And there isn’t any sign of any potential pro-Trump group registering in larger than usual numbers. Granted some states allow same day registration but it seems unlikely that there will be a surge of same day registrations if there hasn’t been a surge of pre-registrations. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/111 "2016-11-03T21:34:24Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Question: Do polls somehow exclude early voters from their sampling of likely voters? I’ve heard anecdotally that if you vote early, you’ll stop getting harassed by pollsters (I’ve never been called; I only use a cell, but I don’t know if that makes a difference anymore). I voted early for the first time last week. I was hoping that there would be some interlock between the county recorder’s office and the cable company that one my vote was received and counted, all political ads would be blacked out (or replaced by cat videos). Alas, no… ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/112 "2016-11-03T21:38:19Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > I voted early for the first time last week. I was hoping that there would be some interlock between the county recorder’s office and the cable company that one my vote was received and counted, all political ads would be blacked out (or replaced by cat videos). Alas, no… Sounds like a new way to drive voter turnout: get out and vote or we’ll bombard you with ads on TV and phone calls at home. There’s probably a market there for a savvy entrepreneur. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/113 "2016-11-03T21:43:11Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > One comforting fact is that there doesn’t appear to be a large group of “hidden” voters in this election. For example, there was an unexpectedly large turnout of young voters in 2008 and the majority of them voted for Obama. > > I’ve seen some people arguing that there might be a similar surprise turnout for Trump on Election Day. But pollsters have learned to watch for signs. They obviously can’t predict who will show up at the polls next week. But by now, we know a lot about who’s registering to vote. And there isn’t any sign of any potential pro-Trump group registering in larger than usual numbers. Granted some states allow same day registration but it seems unlikely that there will be a surge of same day registrations if there hasn’t been a surge of pre-registrations. The closest thing I’ve heard to that is that this year has a larger number of undecided voters than other recent elections. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/114 "2016-11-03T21:51:51Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The closest thing I’ve heard to that is that this year has a larger number of undecided voters than other recent elections. I’ve seen some reports that say a larger than usual number of Hispanics have registered. But I’m not counting them as a demographic that will put Trump in office. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/115 "2016-11-03T21:56:03Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Sounds like a new way to drive voter turnout: get out and vote or we’ll bombard you with ads on TV and phone calls at home. There’s probably a market there for a savvy entrepreneur. Hell, Karl Rove is most likely already on the phone. Use your plan just as if with one minor adjustment. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/116 "2016-11-03T22:08:04Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Sounds like a new way to drive voter turnout: get out and vote or we’ll bombard you with ads on TV and phone calls at home. There’s probably a market there for a savvy entrepreneur. If your political affiliation becomes known, this would backfire, almost like a false-flag attack. “I’m from Candidate X and if you don’t go out and vote we’ll keep pestering you!” Sure, it will get votes \*\*against \*\*Candidate X. Reminds me of a dirty tactic used in Taiwanese elections, whereby people pretending to represent Party A or Candidate A would deliberately knock on people’s doors at the wee hours of the morning (i.e., after midnight) and wake them up, claiming to be campaigning for Candidate A/Party A, in order to arouse voter anger against Candidate A/Party A and get them voting for Candidate B/Party B instead. ---
**Author:** ![Clothahump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@Clothahump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clothahump)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/117 "2016-11-03T22:12:14Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > OK, I admit it. I am starting to freak a little bit. > > I really believe that Trump would be a disaster for this country. Domestically the damage he can do it limited. But internationally, he really could hurt us. Best case scenario is that we have 4 years of looking like buffoons, worst case is much worse than that. Really, this isn’t about policy for me- Trump probably isn’t much worse than a plain vanilla Republican that way (and in some respects, like LGBTQ, better). It’s about us electing a grade A douche. > > But… What I have seen with the eroding lead by Hillary is really worrying me that somehow he’s going to pull it off… > > Tell me it won’t happen- please… It’s going to happen. If it doesn’t, we are all well and truly screwed. ---
**Author:** ![chargerrich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chargerrich/32/5399_2.png) [@chargerrich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chargerrich)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/118 "2016-11-03T22:43:19Z")
I have no concerns… the Orange Judas will be back to ripping off workers, filing HUGE bankruptcies, cheating on his wife and buying TREMENDOUS Chinese steel in no time. Hillary breaks 290… maybe 300. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/119 "2016-11-03T22:49:51Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > I’m not worried yet, the Electoral College is still fine, unless Florida and NC go to Trump. Uh, I’m actually kind of seeing both of those going to Trump. I’m also near the ledge. I’m fine…but scared to death. Before this recent FBI announcement, I was rolling along fine. Why oh why can’t we have a fourth debate tomorrow? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/120 "2016-11-03T23:19:49Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I’m going to be quite drunk Election Night. I’ve made the effort to remain sane and sober, but sometimes you just gotta pick one. If Hillary wins, I will sober up in a day or two. If not, fuck it, why bother? I wonder how many people are going to get hammered on election night. I actually did get hammered in 2012 but I was just coherent enough to troll some of my right wing friends, family, and followers on Facebook with a picture of Obama in repose with a smug smile and middle finger extended. I think my friend count went down after that one. I’m sure some others who remained followers bookmarked that moment and are waiting to unload next Tuesday if Trump wins. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408.md?page=7)