# Talk Me Off the Ledge **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408 "2016-11-01T23:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/121 "2016-11-03T23:21:28Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Uh, I’m actually kind of seeing both of those going to Trump. > > I’m also near the ledge. I’m fine…but scared to death. Before this recent FBI announcement, I was rolling along fine. > > Why oh why can’t we have a fourth debate tomorrow? It’s clear that the FBI is in bed with Trump. I’m waiting for deep throats in other agencies to come out of the woodwork. NSA, CIA, IRS, others. I don’t think this is just a hatred of the Clintons either – some of this is probably resentment of having been forced to refer to a black man as their boss for the past 8 years. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/122 "2016-11-03T23:24:15Z")
I have to admit I’m starting to get really worried that this is going to end up being a Trump win. I’m very concerned about Trump supporters suppressing the vote in key locales, something which I don’t think the models can (or are) taking into account. I guess I’m going to have to move to Canada. Oh wait, I’m already Canadian living in Canada. _phew_ Maybe I should move to Mars? ---
**Author:** ![Neo-Calredic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/96bed5/32.png) [@Neo-Calredic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Neo-Calredic)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/123 "2016-11-03T23:44:03Z")
If Trump makes it into office, the United States as we know it is effectively over. Any pretense of the American ideals of being “the good guys,” of being a country worthy of emulation, will be forever washed away. We will have revealed ourselves to be a country who looks up to bullies, racists, sexual predators, and con artists – an ugly people who spit on the weak and mock the helpless. How am I supposed to raise my daughter in country where so many people support an obvious thug like Trump, a man who openly courts the support of the KKK and “jokingly” threatens violence against those who dare disagree with him? How will I explain to her that the American people knew for a fact that this piece of human garbage was a sexual predator – by his own admission – and yet they voted him into office anyway (or almost did – we’ll see)? How is she, or any other girl growing up in America, supposed to absorb that fact and still believe she has any value in the eyes of her country? This whole thing is sickening to me, both literally and figuratively. Even if Hillary ekes out a win next week, the fact that it was ever even in question is frightening all by itself. All our talk about the American dream, and the value of democracy… and here we are. God damn it. We were supposed to be **better** than this. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/124 "2016-11-03T23:57:46Z")
> [@Neo-Calredic](#): > > If Trump makes it into office, the United States as we know it is effectively over. Any pretense of the American ideals of being “the good guys,” of being a country worthy of emulation, will be forever washed away. We will have revealed ourselves to be a country who looks up to bullies, racists, sexual predators, and con artists – an ugly people who spit on the weak and mock the helpless. > > How am I supposed to raise my daughter in country where so many people support an obvious thug like Trump, a man who openly courts the support of the KKK and “jokingly” threatens violence against those who dare disagree with him? How will I explain to her that the American people knew for a fact that this piece of human garbage was a sexual predator – by his own admission – and yet they voted him into office anyway (or almost did – we’ll see)? How is she, or any other girl growing up in America, supposed to absorb that fact and still believe she has any value in the eyes of her country? > > This whole thing is sickening to me, both literally and figuratively. Even if Hillary ekes out a win next week, the fact that it was ever even in question is frightening all by itself. All our talk about the American dream, and the value of democracy… and here we are. > > God damn it. We were supposed to be **better** than this. I think the damage is already done. > **[The Trump Apocalypse Might Not Come, But the Republican One Will](https://newrepublic.com/article/138342/trump-apocalypse-might-not-come-republican-one-will)** > > The GOP was extreme under Obama. It may get much worse under Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/125 "2016-11-04T00:31:15Z")
If Trump gets 56 million votes and loses, that still says almost as much about America as if he gets 60 million votes and wins. So the talk about how “If America elects Trump, it means we are in trouble” is a ship already sailed. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/126 "2016-11-04T00:39:49Z")
I do agree that the damage is already done, but we have to work to avoid more of the slouching towards Gomorrah. That line was said by Robert Bork in his book belittling Democrats, turns out he missed the proper target regarding who to blame. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/127 "2016-11-04T00:42:25Z")
Orange is the new black. ---
**Author:** ![choie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/choie/32/7829_2.png) [@choie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/choie)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/128 "2016-11-04T00:49:29Z")
Hell I’ve already got one foot dangling off the ledge and am feeling gravity’s deadly pull. I can’t believe how much tension this election is creating in me. The irony is that the reason I decided to take an obsessive interest in the election was to turn my thoughts away from a recent family tragedy. That… might’ve been a tactical mistake. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/129 "2016-11-04T00:59:53Z")
Here’s a way in which an information bubble can be comforting/helpful. Go to Daily Kos or some similarly leaning website and just take in the headlines that align with your thinking. Get away from the stress and the horse race for a while until you can deal with it. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/130 "2016-11-04T01:02:03Z")
In a thread like this one, I would not take advise from a **Leaper** … :p;) ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/131 "2016-11-04T01:11:14Z")
Quiet, you. ---
**Author:** ![1iLeft](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/1ileft/32/4114_2.png) [@1iLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/1iLeft)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/132 "2016-11-04T03:11:18Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > It’s going to happen. If it doesn’t, we are all well and truly screwed. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=809330](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=809330) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/133 "2016-11-04T04:16:38Z")
There’s not much point in getting apocalyptic about election results. I realize Democrats(aside from the activists) vote every four years and then say, “Okay, I voted, see ya in four years!”, but elections are not the end of the process. You can lose an election, heck, you can lose big, and then still win the next two years. So if Trump wins, get off the ledge and fight for what you want. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in my life, it’s that getting what you want out of an opposite party President can sometimes be easier than getting what you want out of one of your own party When I count up the conservative accomplishments that I’ve seen over the years, most of them occurred when Bill Clinton was President. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/134 "2016-11-04T04:24:49Z")
Unless Trump really does launch the nukes. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/135 "2016-11-04T04:27:57Z")
If he does, I suggest a petition drive. And besides, Stephen Colbert will have something very snarky to say about it. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/136 "2016-11-04T07:33:02Z")
One thing that may help is to realize that [538 is a big outlier](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0). And even looking at its numbers further down suggest a Clinton victory. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/137 "2016-11-04T07:36:03Z")
538 may be an outlier, but they are also the gold standard, and as Vox points out, their reasoning is entirely sound. There are an unusual number of third party and undecided voters, and for others to just ignore that is a big hole in their models. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/138 "2016-11-04T08:37:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > 538 may be an outlier, but they are also the gold standard, and as Vox points out, their reasoning is entirely sound. There are an unusual number of third party and undecided voters, and for others to just ignore that is a big hole in their models. Right. Plus, don’t forget how the particular demographic that supports Trump the most (low-information white men) happens to be distributed in such a way that, in most of the swing states, a small lead by Clinton in polling averages is shakier than it would be otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/139 "2016-11-04T08:46:40Z")
DSeid is right thought that Wang correctly identified the fluctuations. The weakness is that if Trump is at a peak in the last week(which he is), then he can win. I think Wang’s model may have assumed that we’d be at Clinton+4 now, with some random variation that still kept her solidly ahead. ---
**Author:** ![ekedolphin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ekedolphin/32/10003_2.png) [@ekedolphin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekedolphin)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 8:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/talk-me-off-the-ledge/770408/140 "2016-11-04T08:56:40Z")
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