Classy move, Aru. :rolleyes:
'kin’ell!
What a stage.
What carnage.
DNF due to crashes:
Jos van Emden TLJ
Robert Gesink TLJ
Manuele Mori UAD
Geraint Thomas SKY
Richie Porte BMC
Plus Rafal Majka went down with Thomas, barely finished the stage and reportedly looks like hell.
Outside time limit:
Matteo Trentin QST (huge loss for Quickstep)
Mark Renshaw DDD
Arnaud Demare FDJ + 3 FDJ domestiques who tried to pace him in
Juraj Sagan BOH
Contador cracked badly, now 5 minutes back and pretty much out of the picture. Quintana lost over a minute to sit 8th a 2’13", not out but things not looking good even for a podium place. Dan Martin came back fairly strong after Porte took him out to finish with Quintana (and Yates and Bennett) but that still puts a huge dent in his podium chances.
Froome is the big winner on the day, with half his major rivals removed from contention, though losing G is bad. Aru and Bardet look like the class of the rest of the field.
Uran is the man of the day, though. He suffered a bent rear derailleur hanger on the descent, so he asked Mavic neutral service to get his chain onto the 53x11 and he wins riding what’s damn near a fixie.
Had to feel bad for Barguil and Martin today. Barguil did so much work and came up about a wheel rim short. And after Martin shut down Aru’s attack on Froome while he was having a mechanical problem he gets taken out by Porte’s accident. I know it’s not considered sporting to attack when someone is having a mechanical issue, but I think there’s an argument to be made that Froome’s problem is, at least somewhat, under his team’s control, while Martin as taken out by something he could not foresee or avoid.
Also, what’s the over/under on when Bob Roll’s voice gets so high that only dogs can hear him? What do you think, about stage 15?
Yeah, that was heartbreaking for so many of those guys: Barguil, Martin, Porte, Thomas and the disqualified FDJ riders.
I think Aru was stupid to have attacked when he did and he really showed his ass, but I suppose desperate times call for desperate measures.
Also, don’t get why they were all helping Froome by taking pulls in the final few kms.
p.s. Perhaps Bob is going to transition by the end of the tour. 
I dunno, Froome’s bike was apparently not shifting right or something. It’s not like he had a flat or no brakes for the downhill. If he wants to drop back to the car and grab a new bike, fine, but I don’t see why everyone has to wait for him. Uran had no rear shifting at all and did he say, “Hey wait up guys, I need a new bike!”? No he did not. He just beat everyone using a single-speed bike.
As to why Fuglsang and Aru pulled with Froome, that seems obvious. It meant time on Bardet, Quintana, and Contador. There is no advantage for Astana in letting Bardet gain time, or in letting Quintana and others minimize losses. The only thing I’d have done differently would have been to sandbag just a little. Once it was clear they were going to catch Bardet, take shorter and easier pulls, just a bit, so that Froome has to expend just a little more energy and maybe then Aru or Fuglsang can grap some bonus seconds or even the stage win. But, for all I know, they already did exactly that and it didn’t quite work out.
Uran wasn’t in yellow. Perhaps that’s becoming an antiquated idea (based on the tour talking heads analysis).
I don’t think there’s ever been a tradition of waiting for the yellow jersey because his shifter is a bit dodgy. Riding back from a crash, sure, but that wasn’t the case here. I don’t see why the yellow jersey shouldn’t have to work to get back onto the bunch after a non-mandatory bicycle change.
The winning strategy for the Tour is getting entirely predictable.
Field the best combination climber/TT and then protect him.
I would like to see a little more out of the box thinking from the guys who just aren’t going to win without a Froome mishap. What do they have to lose?
Attack often and early, force SKY to chase from the get go. They will tire or make a mistake. Seriously, if the contenders all launch separate attacks, as soon as SKY chases one down, someone else attacks, someone will get away.
Or send 3 domestiques from every team but SKY forward. Then attack with your guy and whatever riders you have left.
I (of course) don’t have the answer. But, I’m getting a little tired of seeing the battle for second place every year. I’m not talking about just Froome. Most races have been dominated this way since Armstrong.
Uran saw him strip his gears and immediately attacked. It didn’t look exactly sporting.
Had Froome been about to crack, absolutely attack. But mechanical problems… I don’t know. I recall seasoned guys like Fabian Cancellara shut down an entire peleton due to the yellow jersey having a flat tire. It’s a long standing unwritten rule, seems to me.
It would be nice to see, and Sky are a bit vulnerable - G is out, Sergio Hennao looks out of form, and I’m not sure Froome himself is in tip top condition. But I don’t think there are enough contenders out there - those who seriously think they can beat Froome, for the type of panache you’re talking about. Maybe Aru will lay it on the line but past him who is there? Dan Martin said himself he was climbing well but couldn’t respond to the accelerations on Le Mond Du Chat.
Like you say, this is the reality of the Tour now and I just enjoy it for what it is - a grand strategic ensemble featuring some brutally strong cyclists in a beautiful country. But if I want to watch some bike racing then it’s the classics or the cyclocross.
La Vuelta’s also a better bet for some cut and thrust, as Froome rides it and wants to win it, but sky don’t usually send as strong a team.
Well, it’s not just Aru, though. Fuglsang is in impressive form as well. Won the Criterium de Dauphine with a brilliant ride on the last stage, and has looked good at the Tour as well - and is 5th overall. Astana’s got the potential to do 1-2 combo attacks of the sort that Movistar dreams about doing with Valverde and Quintana but never has the guts to actually commit to. Difference is that Astana’s directeur sportif is none other than Alexander Vinokourov, who was quite possibly the most aggressive, attacking rider of the last two decades. Won on the Champs d’Elysee in a solo break, for crying out loud. He will have no hesitation in encouraging Fabio and Jacob to make long distance attacks if the situation calls for it.
Also, AG2R rode very aggressively in stage 9. They had two riders in the break and on top of that pushed the pace of the pelaton. Now, this didn’t work out as well as it might have for them - they were trying to isolate Froome and also possibly have help up the road for Bardet - but the intent was there. While I think both Bardet and his team would be perfectly happy with a podium finish, I would expect them to nonetheless ride aggressively.
Marcel Kittel makes it look easy, again.
Tough stage today; crashes, and a breakaway caught with less than a km to go.
Did anyone else see blocking on the final sprint? Matthews looked to be trying to pass Boasson Hagen, and Boasson Hagen moved right so there wasn’t room between him and the barriers. It looked quite similar to Sagan and Cavendish, except Matthews didn’t try to squeeze through, and I haven’t heard even a whiff of a penalty against Boasson Hagen.
It wasn’t nearly that close but yeah, these guys just don’t seem to understand the concept of keeping their lane in the sprint finish.
Some fairly substantial developments the last couple days.
First stage 12, a long mountain marathon that appeared uneventful GC-wise except for the cracking of Contador and Quintana, neither of whom had been looking in form to seriously challenge for the win anyways. Then with a mere 300m of a 214km course remaining a single attack drops Froome and he loses 22s + bonuses leaving Aru in yellow, the top four within 35s of each other, and the GC wide open.
Then today’s stage 13, a very short 101km sees none other than Contador and Quintana off the front eventually to take back nearly 2 minutes and put Quintana if not Contador back in with a shout. Also we saw Jacob Fuglsang abandon due to injuries sustained in a crash a couple days ago which has left Astana perilously weak from a team perspective. Aru was entirely isolated from very early on. If he is to hang on to yellow till Paris, he will need to do it with even less team support than Dumoulin had at the Giro. Finally, Mikel Landa was with Bertie and Nairo today and has moved up to fifth giving Sky a second card to play if Froome’s apparent weakness yesterday was more than just a blip.
So who’s going to win?
Froome has to still be considered the favourite. He put 40-60 seconds into all the other top contenders in the opening 14km TT, and stage 20 with a further 22km TT remains. He’s only 6’ down on Aru, has 19’ on Bardet and '29 on Uran. And he has the strongest team by a wide margin. Landa in particular is not only in good form but is placed highly enough that if he attacks Bardet and Uran will have to respond or risk losing their shots at the podium. However, Froome is clearly not as dominant as in past years. In past years it’s been precisely on the steep ramps where he’s attacked with that ungainly high-cadence eggbeater style that cracked the world’s best climbers, but this year it’s the steep ramps where he seems to have no answer. If he really is vulnerable the others still have opportunities to take enough time in the Alps to leave him with too few TT km to recover.
Aru seems the most likely of the rest to ride away to victory in stage 17 or 18. His form at La Planche des Belles Filles left everyone in the dust, and his opening TT was comparable to the other contenders aside from Froome. However, with the loss of Fuglsang team Astana will be very hard-pressed to protect the yellow jersey.
Bardet can’t be written off. AG2R is probably the next strongest team in the mountains after Sky, and they’ve been riding aggressively. Historically Bardet doesn’t seem much inclined towards solo attacks, preferring calculated moves like last year’s ride into second place in stage 19 launched by teammate Mikael Cherel. He was not nearly as marked a ride last year, though, so it may not be so easy to get away again.
Uran, I’m not sure what to say. Cannondale is only just barely a World Tour team, budget-wise and results-wise, but Pierre Rolland and Adam Talansky are creditable climbers who should be able to provide significant mountain domestique support, and Uran has a better history of TT performances than Aru or Bardet (though this wasn’t apparent in stage 1, so who knows).
Finally Landa. The mind boggles. Landa the super-domestique with the possibly struggling leader. Will he obey team orders to ride for the team leader? Or will his radio mysteriously malfunction while he follows the attack of a rival and seeks to win a stage for himself? Wait, has someone invented a time machine? Haven’t we seen this movie before? It is 2015 at the Giro d’Italia, right? Except Landa’s wearing Sky colours instead of Astana? WTF? If Landa goes rogue and rides for himself instead of Froome and they both lose, Aru is going to laugh so hard he’ll fall of his bike and concede the race to Bardet.
Remember that opening time trial was on wet roads. Froome’s advantage was, at least in part, about being willing to take more risks around the corners than his rivals. He might not have that going for him in the second TT.
True, but based on past performance he’s the superior time trialist by a considerable margin. That said, TT’s at the end of a grand tour can turn out wildly against expectations due to fatigue.
Yeah, but something random, like the weather, could throw this even more up-in-the-air than it already is.
Amazing stages the last couple days. That finish on Stage 12 looked absolutely brutal. And that’s an airplane runway; in my experience those are usually level.
It all makes for a very interesting Tour. Even if Froome is still the favorite, I don’t think I’ve seen anyone attack him and make it stick before
Aaaaaand that’s why you need a strong team. Lumpy stage today with only a couple 3rd category climbs, with a finish that kicks up at 9% in the final 500m. A day you should be expecting time gaps, and where the mere size of the surviving peleton will mean that you might lose tens of seconds just because the 27th place rider left a 1’ gap to the 26th place rider.
Expecting this, most of the top GC was very close to the front. Froome, Uran, and Dan Martin finish at 1’, Bardet and Yates at 5’. But Landa finished at 15’, Contador and Quintana at 22’, and Aru in a huge fail for Astana comes in at 26’ losing yellow and now with just 4’ on Bardet and 10’ on Uran. You simply cannot be riding that far back in the peleton on a stage with a finish like that if you expect to win a grand tour.
Top 4 places are within 30 seconds. Should be fun tomorrow - mountainous but not overly challenging stage before a rest day is the sort of stage conducive to an ambush.