Well, the first proper mountain stage and we’re not at all where I would have predicted at the start of the race.
Holy shit, Julian Alaphilippe could conceivably win this race. He could also ship 20 minutes tomorrow or in the Alps, of course. We don’t really know whether his recovery between stages will be sufficient to hang on, but clearly on any given day he can hang with the best climbers.
We can cross out a bunch of names from the contenders list. Nibali, Porte, Yates, Bardet, Fuglsang, Quintana, and Landa are all not going to get anywhere near the podium.
Real remaining podium contenders are basically the current top 6 in the GC: Alaphilippe, G, Kruijswijk, Bernal, Buchmann, and Pinot.
That 1’40" in the crosswinds looms very large at the moment, as Pinot would be in 2nd instead of 6th if he hadn’t been caught out there.
My current rankings:
Steven Kruijswijk - Nearly won the Giro a couple years ago but for an unfortunate downhill crash, so we know that he has grand tour chops. He trails G by just 12 seconds, has shown no weaknesses, and had significant team support deeper into today’s stage than anyone else. The downside is that half his team is support for Groenewegen.
Geraint Thomas - Cracks today, but still in second place, and has significant time on everyone but Kruijswijk (and Alaphilippe of course). If the loss today was just a bad moment and not a sign of things to come he’s still in very good shape.
Julian Alaphilippe - WTF. I mean, we knew he could climb. He took the polka dots last year, after all. But he also finished an hour and a half down. There’s a big difference between getting into a break, taking max points over the first climbs of the day before dropping to the grupetto on the last one and sticking with the leaders through a whole mountain stage. Julian’s strength has always been extended anaerobic efforts, which is why he wins races like La Fleche Wallone that end on brutally steep but relatively short climbs. Grand tours are an entirely different ballgame. However, he’s in form and ridiculously hard to drop, so maybe? Still, it would be no shock to see him crack badly on one of the remaining high mountain stages.
Thibaut Pinot - Actually looks like the strongest rider in this race at the moment. Were it not for that stupid getting caught out in the crosswinds, he’d be in second place and sitting very pretty. The knocks on him have always been weak descending and a seemingly somewhat fragile mentality, but his descending seems much improved in recent years and he seems to have his head in a more stable place since he took a few years off from the Tour and raced the Giro instead. I like his chances at a podium finish.
Egan Bernal - He’s looked good so far, and is a red-hot favourite to win several grand tours in the future, but I’m not convinced he’s quite there yet. We’ll see whether he’s matured into a proper contender with how he holds up in the third week.
Tomorrow should provide significant information about which of these guys will be celebrating in Paris. If G finishes with the favourites tomorrow we can write of the loss today as just a bad moment, but if he really was cracking it could be far worse tomorrow. And if Julian hangs with the other favourites tomorrow, the others have to really start worrying about whether this guy is going to ruin their party.
The wildcard for me is Emanuel Buchmann. He looked the least taxed today along with Bernal, Krushweak, and Pinot. I feel like he has a part to play yet.
Serious failure of team communication, that. Movistar are in a bad spot. Maybe Landa can get a stage win, which would be some sort of result, but they’re up there with AG2R in terms of disappointment at the moment.
Do you reckon movistar like Quintana? It was like a club run dropping the pain in the arse guy no one likes. A bit keystone cops, but I guess imposing your will on the peloton ain’t as easy as Sky / Ineos usually make it look.
Absolutely crucifying pace but Alaphilippe on top of it all day - have to say that is another level, left a trail of bodies in his wake. Pinot looked class - great win.
Surprised to see G crack but more so to see Ineos under the cosh, predicted the opposite. Wout Poels is usually the stealth assassin - not so much a glimpse of him on tv for the first ten days, then quietly moves to the front, once the serious climbing starts, to dish out some pain. Didn’t have it today, though, dropped off the lead group and couldn’t contribute to the selection. With Froome out that does make Ineos more vulnerable to someone having a bad day. van Baarle put in a huge stint today - classics man like that going deep on the Tourmalet was impressive to see.
As Gorsnak says if that was G’s bad day then he’s probably in a good spot - ie he knew he didn’t quite have it today and rode within himself to limit the damage. OTOH if that was him legit cracking and hanging on for dear life then it’s wide open. When things go wrong for G there are not usually any grey areas - a bad crash, totally blowing up, so I’m still optimistic for him. Hard one tomorrow so we shall see.
I’ve had a suspicion for a few years now that Quintana’s teammates don’t think much of his abilities and resent having to sacrifice themselves for him. He had potential. I don’t know what happened to it.
The Movistar DS said in an interview after the stage that Quintana hadn’t communicated that he was on a bad day. The team was really pushing for him, so him not piping up and telling them to ride defensively instead is pretty bad. If Landa hadn’t lost so much time when he crashed in the crosswinds they could just back him instead, as he looks strong enough to contend were it not for the time lost that day.
Anyways, rumour has Quintana going to Arkea-Samsic next year, so Movistar domestiques don’t have to grumble about that for long.
Yep. Zero love/respect for NQ from Movistar or his grupetto for sitting on. Landa is 4 places ahead of him so very little reason to work for Quintana. Didn’t even acknowledge him.
Julian Alaphilippe probably can’t hang on. He made it through one mountain stage, and most of a second. Now he has three days to recover, but following that are three big days in the Alps. I expect he’ll probably do fine the first day, but struggle the next and outright crack on stage 20. I hope I’m wrong.
G’s in better shape than yesterday suggested, but not in the same form as Pinot, Bernal, and Buchmann.
Pinot has been consistently the strongest climber, but has expended the most energy of anyone outside of Alaphilippe the last couple days.
I’d write Pinot in as a clear favourite at this point except for the worry that he’s spent too much energy, and his history of collapsing under pressure (see stage 20 of last year’s Giro). I’ll still make him my outright favourite at this point, with a dead heat right behind between G, Kruijswijk, Bernal, and Buchmann. I don’t know how to pick between these guys. G has experience and the mental game, but obviously can’t go with Pinot and Bernal on the hardest slopes if anyone attacks. Kruijswijk has experience, probably the best team support, but also seems to be lacking in explosiveness. Still, the climbs in the Alps tend to be longer, steadier affairs than the goat paths in the Pyrenees. Bernal and Buchmann look the most likely to respond to Pinot’s attacks, but they’re both young and inexperienced. Buchmann’s best career results are 12th in the Vuelta, and 3rd in a couple week-long stage races (including this year’s Criterium du Dauphine, mind you). Buchmann also has very little team support, since Bora is primarily built to deliver Sagan to stage wins. But with just 39 seconds between 2nd and 6th, you really can’t rule out anyone.
I love that we have no idea who’s going to win this thing going in to the last week, though. We haven’t had that sort of suspense for a good long while.
Forecast to be hot as balls later this week in the Alps - pushing 40 deg, just to add to the punishment of three brutal days Thurs, Fri and Sat.
I’m camping in the Alps next week as it goes and it’s a bit hot for me. Prefer road cycling in the heat but the kids are too young for Alpine roadying, so we’ll prob take the mountain bikes.
I’m in the Alps now, headed over to the final mountain stages in two days. The heat is pretty brutal for hiking, can’t imagine what it will be like for the mountain stages.
So what’s the plan? Just pitch a tent on the side of a mountain, surrounded by several thousand of your closest new friends? I’ve wondered about the logistics and environmental impact (and the sanity, tbh ) of all those people gathered in one place several days ahead just waiting for a glimpse of the passing peloton.
Only caught the highlights today so didn’t really get the rhythm of the stage, but Alaphilippe was on by his absolute fingernails over the Galibier there, descent made all the difference.
I think with him on the verge of properly cracking there the GC guys must not really trust their legs to go really deep, or they would have blown him up earlier. Think he has to crack tomorrow, with no final descent, but he’s a very hard man to be leading this deep in the race - would love to see him defy the odds.
Would hate to be a Quintana fan - rides like an absolute champion, when there is nothing really on the line, ergo he is not a champion. Still good to see him show his class - threw in an absolutely savage dig on the Galibier to take charge.
A lot of grumbling online about Rowe and Martin getting ejected yesterday - big overreaction, others have done far worse without censure, obv this punishment would never happen in a million years to the FDJ or QS road captains etc etc. I’m not so sure myself - I’m OK with the directeur taking a zero tolerance line with this sort of chopping people up, pushing and shoving bullshit in the peloton. It’s a dangerous sport and there has to be a lot of trust amongst the riders in the group formation. Problem is it’s hard to hand out a yellow card to these two riders as you can’t give them a meaningful time penalty. Cash fine I suppose could work.
Thing about Quintana was that Movistar really didn’t want him on the podium and are going to do everything they can to make sure that doesn’t happen. Not sure who got the bigger F.U., but something tells me that the team owner does not want to pay Quintana a bonus before he leaves the team. What’s that team dynamic like right now?
) of all those people gathered in one place several days ahead just waiting for a glimpse of the passing peloton.