This sounds extremely dubious to me. Here is the first paragraph of Wikipedias article on the Tea Party Movement:
[QUOTE=Wikipedia]
The Tea Party movement (TPM) is an American populist[1][2][3] political movement that is generally recognized as conservative and libertarian,[4][5] and has sponsored protests and supported political candidates since 2009.[6][7][8] It endorses reduced government spending,[9][10] opposition to taxation in varying degrees,[10] reduction of the national debt and federal budget deficit,[9] and adherence to an originalist interpretation of the United States Constitution.[11]
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You seem to want to save Movement Conservatism from being tainted by the excesses of the Tea Party movement by pretending that Grover Norquists anti-tax pledge is somehow the raison-d’etre of the Teapartiers. But ATR has sponsored the Taxpayer Protection Pledge since 1986 (no Tea Party to blame back then) and 172 House members have signed it. It has nothing to do with the Tea Party movement, apart from the Tea Party usually supporting the same policies as Movement Conservatism, and therefore usually supporting it.
Crucially, the key ringleader of the Tea Party movement, Erick Eriksson of RedState.com - the guy who organized the opposition to the Boehner plan - self identifies as a Movement Conservative and comes down on the issues in all the usual ways: on social issues (he’s a - rabid imho - christian conservative), on NatSec, and on fiscal matters.
I read his blog on a weekly basis, so I have a fair grasp of where he, and his minions are at, politically.
Well, the polling I’ve seen is pretty inconclusive insofar as the Tea Party is not a political party proper and you can usually not vote for it. All the Tea Party endorsed politicians in congress come with an (R) to their name, and all of them claims to be conservatives. So you’ll see polling where the Tea Party at times have enjoyed 30-40% approval but otoh 10-20% describing themselves as part of the Tea Party movement. Presumably the latter entails going to actual Tea Party meetings which constitutes a level of participation in the political process that goes beyond your average passive supporter.
Perhaps a good measure of core Tea Party support at about the time of the midterms is this USAToday/Gallup poll from 22/11 2010:
[QUOTE=USAToday]
In a survey taken Friday through Sunday, 28% say Obama should have the most influence on government policy next year while 27% say the Tea Party standard-bearers should. GOP congressional leaders are chosen by 23%, Democratic congressional leaders by 16%.
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But still if you allow me, I think I’ll backtrack slightly from my most strongly worded claim which was that “[The base of the republican party/Movement conservatism] is for most intents and purposes more or less equal to the Tea Party”. On second thought I concede that that was probably a slight over-reach (even if it was qualified with the 75% overlap guestimate).
I’ll put it this way instead: the Tea Party movement is for all intents and purposes the offspring of Movement Conservatism; there is substantial overlap in policy and support; and crucially there is no part - that I know - of the Tea Party promoted policy agenda that isn’t also promoted by Movement Conservatism.
They make up most of the seventy new members of the House of Representatives that the republican caucus gained in the 2010 midterms. That’s a consequence of incumbency and the fact that new republican candidates for congress branded themselves as “Tea Party” in 2010.
But the only meaningful difference between them and the rest of the republican caucus is branding, fervor, and conception of feasible strategy. They don’t differ more on policy and ideology from their caucus than any other republican congressman, picked at random.
Well, once again I havent “claimed” that the movement is dead: I’ve expressed my imho that, in my view, “movement conservatism is by now a bankrupt ideology that lacks solutions to real world problems and is solely chugging along on faith, good messaging and powerful institutions”. I don’t think that’s provable. I think that’s something you believe, or don’t. And I was careful to label it my opinion both here and here, and further re-iterating it to you here, for perfect clarity. Getting that wrong two times is starting to bordering on having the appearance of willfulness, and is most definitely irritating. You don’t agree, fine. If you consider yourself a conservative - a Movement Conservative even - I don’t see why you should want to; and even if you’re not there’s no imperative for you to share my belief. But trying to pretend that I’ve made any factual claims that I need to support when I’ve offered my opinion - take it or leave it - is neither here nor there.
In summary, you’re conflating two issues here: To what extent Movement Conservatism overlaps with the Tea Party and whether the Tax Pledge is a sign of “the bankruptcy of movement conservatism”.
The former question is arguable and I made a tentative case for substantial overlap. But it’s really only tentatively related to the latter question (if for no other reason, because the Tax Pledge doesn’t really have very much to do with the Tea Party).
And the later proposition I offered as a imho and I’m not really interested in trying to prove it. Take it or leave it. I say it’s hard or impossible to prove; all you can do is make a case based on circumstantial evidence, and I’m not interested in doing that here and now. If you want to disagree - with or without a supporting argument - that’s your prerogative.