squeegee don’t know why I missed this. Yep, that is why I started the OP - an event in the historical sense will take decades to play out. Are we there yet? 
I am inclined to think so - per Trinopus - the tech has been predicted, but the shifts in the global economy, communication and culture we’ve experienced feel big to me…
This may be my own interpretation, but insofar as the singularity implies events driven by nonhuman intelligence superior to our own, yeah, I’d say so. Such a thing obviously hasn’t happened before, but there are instances in history where theretofore unimaginable change has come to a society, e.g. the Aztecs vs. the Spanish, where denizens’ entire world was upended.
Koxinga: I know it’s goalpost-shifting, but I (and I believe Vernor Vinge) use a lesser, watered-down definition of the singularity. It doesn’t necessarily involve smarter-than-human AI. It just involves disruptive technology change. So, yeah, the Spanish were a “singularity” to the Aztecs, in that sense.
Phnord Prephect: “Technological event horizon.” Grin! Good point, and valid!
That’s why it’s called a “singularity”. Much like a singularity in physics, our understanding of what’s on the other side breaks down. We can’t extrapolate what a world would be like where AI cranked out smarter AI at a geometric rate or if people’s brains could seamlessly network to computers.
I don’t think it’s valid to compare some sort of future AI to the anthropomorphized computers we see in the movies (Skynet terminators, Bishop from Aliens, The Matrix programs, iRobots, Cylons, Data from Star Trek, etc). AI isn’t going to be some clever Pinocchio machine that can calculate Pi to a billion places but can not use contractions (hmmm…that was odd) and only seeks to understand human concept of “love”. Nor will it be suddenly get hit by lightning and decide to KILL..ALL…HU-MANS!
I think we’ll just reach a point where everything is so interconnected and integrated with sensors and predictive algorithms and automation that we’ll find that there’s just not a lot for us to do anymore. Stuff we need will just show up when we need it. Probably before we even know we wanted it.
I would think that if we were in the midst of a technological singularity that potential GDP would be growing faster than it did from 1950-1965, the golden age of US economic growth. It is not.
Smart phones are not a singularity. This is a singularity: Suppose that in 1950 the fastest computer on the planet had about a trillionth the computing power of a human brain, and suppose also that computing power increases 1000x every 20 years. Here’s what things would look like:
1950: Trillionth
1970: Billionth
1990: Millionth
2010: Thousandth
2024: Tenth
2030: One
In 1950, true AI would look like a joke. A computer with a trillionth the processing power of the human brain is just a pile of vacuum tubes. In 1970, even though computers are 1000x faster, it’s still a joke. In 1990 it’s still a joke. In 2010 it’s still a joke. In 2024, it’s still a joke. A tenth of a human brain is about the processing power of a housecat. It’s interesting, but no threat to actual humans.
So: joke, joke, joke, joke, joke. Then, suddenly, in the space of six years, we have computers with the processing power of a human brain. Kaboom.
Here’s the point: technological progress has been exactly the same for the entire 80-year period. But in the early years, although the relative progress was high, the absolute progress was minute. Why Artifical Intelligence Is Closer Than We Realize – Mother Jones
Once computers have, say, once or twice the computing power of human brain, then things get interesting. What we have now is lead up. Whether the singularity occurs in 2030, 2130 or never is another matter.