# Terrorist attacks drop. Is the War on Terror working? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 1, 2003, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415 "2003-05-01T16:36:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/1 "2003-05-01T16:36:45Z")
[Good news.](http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=C9E8FBBB-AE07-49CB-B5FA4F78C43BD848) > [@](#): > > The State Department says there were 199 terrorist attacks last year, a 44 percent drop from 2001 and the lowest figure in more than 30 years. The Bush Administration claims credit > [@](#): > > Introducing the report at a news conference, Secretary of State Colin Powell said increased vigilance, international cooperation and U.N. financial sanctions created after the September 11 attacks are definitely making life more difficult for terrorist factions. > > “It is harder for terrorists to hide and find safe-haven,” he said. “It is harder for them to organize and sustain operations. Terrorist cells have been broken up, networks disrupted and plots foiled. The financial bloodlines of terrorist organizations have been severed. Since 9-11 more than $134 million of terrorist assets have been frozen. All around the world, countries have been tightening their border security and better safeguarding their critical infrastructures.” Of course, any Administration would claim credit for something good that happens, but in this case, the Bushies seem to have a good case. The US has made the War on Terror a big priority. They have rallied the world in this endeavor. OTOH, maybe the improvement is just a statistical blip. \*1. Are the statistics accurate or are they unreliable or deceptive in some way? 1. Even if terrorism is really reducing, are the causes separate from US actions?\* If the War on Terror is working, it ought to produce further improvement. In particular, results in 2003 will help indicate whether the Iraq war will encourage terrorism or discourage terrorism. _3. Will 2003 should show another reduction in the number of terrorist attacks?_ I’m an optimist. I think the War on Terror is really working and Iraq will help. I predict a further reduction in the number of terrorist attacks in 2003. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/2 "2003-05-01T16:45:22Z")
Iraq is connected to terrorism in that attacking it is likely to increase terrorism, but that’s about it. Given that the State Department removed Iraq from its list of states that sponsor terrorism and no connection between Iraq and Al Qaeda has been proven, I’m not sure how removing Saddam is connected. Aggressively going after terrorists - not that I approve of some of the ways this has been done - is needed to reduce terrorism. But the Bush administration’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, has gotten so stupid that I think it’s a wash at best. The war with Iraq and the posturing against Syria, Iran, and others is, as I see it, pushing the Arab world to a breaking point. If things haven’t broken already, the administration is going to keep going until they do. And of course, meanwhile North Korea and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons and the predilection to supply them to terrorists. To sum up, I’d say it’s just too soon to tell, since there are some real negatives on the horizon. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/3 "2003-05-01T16:46:23Z")
As I have said before- as long as there are angry nutcases with chemicals & a kitchen sink- there will be terrorism. That is to say- until long after we are all dead. However, some terrorists acts, like the 9-11 WTC attack- take massive training, funding & support. If nations are unwilling to openly support terrorism, then this sort of attack will stop. After all, we have now gone in & invaded & taken over two such nations- and done so with not all that much problem. Syria is probably crapping its pants right now. :d Even "routine bombings " usually have training & active support- which is declining. Now- passive support, that is: “we are behind you, but we aren’t really going to lift a finger to actually help” probably increased a bit- except of course in the nations we are currently occupying. I predict a lessening of terrorist acts, and the new acts will be smaller & less effective. But I do not think that they will end. ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/4 "2003-05-01T16:54:08Z")
Do you always get your news from propaganda websites, December? That explains a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/5 "2003-05-01T16:56:34Z")
> [@](#): > > Even "routine bombings " usually have training & active support- which is declining. Now- passive support, that is: “we are behind you, but we aren’t really going to lift a finger to actually help” probably increased a bit- except of course in the nations we are currently occupying. You’re saying that terrorists bombings have less active support these days, correct? Can you back that up? > [@](#): > > After all, we have now gone in & invaded & taken over two such nations- and done so with not all that much problem. Then again, the biggest backer of Al Qaeda financially is Saudi Arabia, and they’re still receiving a lot of US support. Iraq’s links to terrorism are unproven, which would cut the “two” in half. Historically, Al Qaeda has usually not attacked the same target with the frequency you see from suicide bombers. Their pattern historically has been to wait at least a year or two. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/6 "2003-05-01T17:02:29Z")
Certainly the focus of the US on tracking down terrorists has put a crimp in their plans. Money lines have been disrupted, terrorists tracked down and arrested or killed and son on. Mostly however I’d say they’ve just gone to ground and are laying low till the heat dies down (as it inevitably will). No nation right now wants to be seen supporting terrorism. Not with the US military in the field and having proven twice now that they have no compunction in zapping anyone who so much as smells wrong when it comes to terrorism. Nevertheless I have no doubt they are still out there. History shows again and again that as the ‘good guys’ get better at tracking the bad guys the bad guys get better at evading the good guys. As the US flails about nabbing terrorists a few of the best (or at least lucky) will remain and they’ll be more adept at surviving than those that went before them and they will pass that knowledge along. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next attack was electronic in nature. It’s scary how vulnerable much of our digital systems are and the terrorists know it. Al Qaeda was found to have an active program aimed at electronic terrorism and it surprised the CIA not only by its existence but by its savvy as well. Better still for the terrorists is that electronic terrorism can be exceedingly difficult to trace back to a source so they might evade repercussions. ---
**Author:** ![plnnr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@plnnr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/plnnr)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/7 "2003-05-01T17:06:32Z")
“as long as there are angry nutcases with chemicals & a kitchen sink” Or, children who’s fathers, brothers, sisters, or mothers have been killed as the result of actions of another group, nation, faction, or religion ---
**Author:** ![Skip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@Skip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skip)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/8 "2003-05-01T17:26:47Z")
_Do you always get your news from propaganda websites, December? That explains a lot._ And would you perchance like to comment on any of the actual points that december brought up? ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/9 "2003-05-01T17:37:48Z")
Since we’ll probably never really know what when wrong the last time anyway, so how can we know what’g going right now. > **[MSNBC News - Breaking News and News Today | Latest News](https://www.msnbc.com/)** > > MSNBC breaking news and the latest news for today. Get daily news from local news reporters and world news updates with live audio & video from our team. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/10 "2003-05-01T17:40:19Z")
Well, we may not find out what went wrong with regard to intelligence failures leading up to the attacks themselves. As far as ‘what went wrong’ with regard to policies that feed into hatred of the US and the West, that’s another story. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/11 "2003-05-01T17:44:26Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Marley23 \* > \*\*Iraq is connected to terrorism in that attacking it is likely to increase terrorism, but that’s about it. Given that the State Department removed Iraq from its list of states that sponsor terrorism and no connection between Iraq and Al Qaeda has been proven, I’m not sure how removing Saddam is connected. > > \*\* You are correct in that the Iraq/ AlQaeda link is tenuous at best. However, Iraq was conclusively linked to other Terrorist activities. True, so far Al Qaeda has been the only Islamic Terrorist org that had significantly targeted the USA, but that’s not the end-all-and be-all of terrorism, no matter how isolationist we Americans are. Marley- certainly- the biggest single active & open supporter of terrorists was the Taliban, and are they not now out of power? What nation is still openly supporting terrorism? There used to be many- now can you claim any besides the PLO? (if that is a “nation” at all) ---
**Author:** ![D\_Odds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/d_odds/32/2882_2.png) [@D\_Odds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Odds)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/12 "2003-05-01T17:46:13Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Marley23 \* > **You’re saying that terrorists bombings have less active support these days, correct? Can you back that up?** [Billion-Dollar Saddam Backs Arafat](http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/2/9/200733.shtml) Please note this article predates current events by two years. > [@](#): > > \*Saddam has been reported as giving the family of each of the dead a cash payment of $12,000 each. \* > [@](#): > > \*\*Then again, the biggest backer of Al Qaeda financially is Saudi Arabia, and they’re still receiving a lot of US support. Iraq’s links to terrorism are unproven, which would cut the “two” in half. Historically, Al Qaeda has usually not attacked the same target with the frequency you see from suicide bombers. Their pattern historically has been to wait at least a year or two. \*\* Iraq’s links to terrorism are well documented. It’s Iraq’s links to Al Qaeda that are more tenuous. And I whole-heartedly agree that Saudi Arabia likely was and still is the biggest financial backer of Al Qaeda. _With friends like that…_ ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/13 "2003-05-01T17:47:16Z")
Openly is up for debate, perhaps, but clearly or obviously is not, and as I said, Saudi Arabia is a huge sponsor of terrorism. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/14 "2003-05-01T18:35:50Z")
I was wondering the other day if ObL or someone like him might take a personal vendetta against Bush and specifically plan a 9/11 scale terrorist attack for a few months before the next election. But then I was wondering whether that would bolster support for Bush or undermine it. Any thoughts, or is that a subject for another thread? ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/15 "2003-05-01T18:39:32Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Skip \* > \*\*_Do you always get your news from propaganda websites, December? That explains a lot._ > And would you perchance like to comment on any of the actual points that december brought up? \*\* I can’t because the site offers no sources or any sort of breakdown of the statistics. Commenting on it would be taking a shot in the dark. For example, they cite a decrease in total deaths from terrorist attacks, but include the WTC attack, an obviously anamalous event, in the calculation. The only reason we know that is because it’s cited on the website. But with the statistics given for total terroist attacks, they offer no clue as to how they were derived. It’s possible that anomalous factors might influence these statistics. It’s also possible that the statistics given are simply wrong, or somehow misleading. Since they are simply asserted, with no source, any debate on them is pure speculation. It’s beyond me why anyone, in a country that has free press, would resort to pulling information from a government-run propaganda source. December is infamous around here for linking to partisan sources. ---
**Author:** ![Tars\_Tarkas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Tars\_Tarkas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tars_Tarkas)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/16 "2003-05-01T18:46:41Z")
Let’s see, we have a guy blowing himself up in isreal a day or two ago, and a guy getting shot in Saudi Arabia a few hours ago. Plus US troops being attacked by protestors for three days straight. And a blast at a Jordan airport, Osama and Saddam are still running free. Guess we are winning the war on terror. 😉 BTW, Sept 11 counts as only 1 of the terrorism incidents in 2001, but has had more lasting effect than any other. What one incident is being planned out now that will have massive reprocussions? if it is the only incident that year but kills millions, will the Bush Administration still take credit for reduction in number of terrorist activity? ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/17 "2003-05-01T22:25:30Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by blowero \* > \*\*Do you always get your news from propaganda websites, December? That explains a lot. \*\* Here’s a link to the [entire State Dept. report.](http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2002/html/) ---
**Author:** ![Lissa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lissa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lissa)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2003, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/18 "2003-05-02T05:11:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by december \* > \*\*I’m an optimist. I think the War on Terror is really working and Iraq will help. I predict a further reduction in the number of terrorist attacks in 2003. \*\* Maybe I’m a pessimist, but I don’t really see it that way. There hasn’t been another major attack in the United States, but this could be attributable to many other factors other than the so-called War on Terrorism. What if the terrorists are just biding their time, waiting for our guard to go down, as would be sensible? What if the next attack is so intricate that it takes years of planning each step? If there are no attcks in the near future, the proponants of the Patriot Act and the like will point to it, and say “See? It’s working!” But, I could point to my remote control and vouch for the fact that it keeps away wolves, because, after all, you don’t see any wolves around my house, do you? My mother once warned me never to pull a gray hair, because “It’ll come back and bring its friends with it.” Similarly, I’ve noted that we cannot possibly arrest every terrorist. It’s absolutely impossible. As soon as one is taken down, another will step into his place. If, in taking that man, you kill other people, then their family members will step up as well. It’s extrordinarily difficult to fight against an idea. The harder you fight, and the more you kill, the more you convince embittered people that their cause is just. Isreal and Palestine are a perfect example. A terrorist attack is followed by a retaliatory strike, which in turn, inflames the friends and family of the dead into wanting to get revenge by planning a terrorist strike. It’s a vicious cycle. It’s also extremely hard to stop a person who is perfectly willing to die in a terrorist attempt. He fears not arrest. He feels he will be rewarded if he succeeds in giving his life for the cause. If anything, my fear is that the “War on Terrorism” will only feed the beast. Anti-American sentiment is seething, and we’re not moving in the most diplomatic manner. Instead, we’re throwing our weight around, and bellowing threats. Our president actually referred to a few nations as “evil.” What a way to fan the flames! ---
**Author:** ![Ms2001](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ms2001/32/18463_2.png) [@Ms2001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ms2001)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2003, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/19 "2003-05-02T05:57:52Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Lissa \* > **If there are no attcks in the near future, the proponants of the Patriot Act and the like will point to it, and say “See? It’s working!” But, I could point to my remote control and vouch for the fact that it keeps away wolves, because, after all, you don’t see any wolves around my house, do you?** One could even turn the OP’s logic around: No world trade center towers were successfully blown up by terrorists during either of Clinton’s terms. Less than a year after Bush took office, two of them were. Coincidence? Probably. But using the logic of the OP, who knows? ---
**Author:** ![OliverH](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/278dde/32.png) [@OliverH](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OliverH)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2003, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415/20 "2003-05-02T06:08:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by DrDeth \* > \*\*You are correct in that the Iraq/ AlQaeda link is tenuous at best. However, Iraq was conclusively linked to other Terrorist activities. \*\* ROTFL. Conclusively as in giving people who have lost everything a financial incentive to blow themselves and others up. Sorry, but if that is ‘linking to terrorism’, the Israeli government is the prime sponsor of terrorism, since they are inciting the very same people to blow themselves up much more convincingly. There are much more conclusive links to a variety of other groups. > [@](#): > > \*\* > Marley- certainly- the biggest single active & open supporter of terrorists was the Taliban, and are they not now out of power? What nation is still openly supporting terrorism? There used to be many- now can you claim any besides the PLO? (if that is a “nation” at all) \*\* a)To claim the Taliban are fully out of power is wishful thinking. Quite the contrary, they have been gaining strength in recent months, and have repeatedly launched counter-attacks. They have found a new ally in Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who has joined forces with them and Al Qaeda. Which is why claiming that the fight in Afghanistan is over is a demonstration that good old Dubya is highly delusional. The fighting has actually been increasing in severity of late. b)Whether a nation openly supports them is irrelevant for terrorist groups. What’s relevant is whether they are actually being persecuted or not. And the latter is the fact in plenty of nations. c)Plenty of countries employ terrorist means as a way to get what they want. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/terrorist-attacks-drop-is-the-war-on-terror-working/172415.md?page=2)