# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 101
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2002 "2018-10-25T19:03:48Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > For 2018 we’ll be in the 22% bracket, which has a huge range. That spans from people who no way can afford a $60k car to people who with budgeting and planning can do it. > The magic of leases and 72+ month loans have made luxury pickups and SUVs available to lots of people. Apologies, I meant percentile. Saying what you take home AFTER taxes is the same as what 60% of Americans take home BEFORE taxes isn’t really a compelling claim to modest income. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2003 "2018-10-25T19:41:39Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Look, there’s just no universe in which non-wealthy people can afford a car payment somewhere in the $650/month range. > > Seriously, the idea that someone isn’t wealthy because they trade in an Accord is just Tesla-level BS. After factoring in the federal tax credit, I paid almost the same for my model 3 as the _average_ new car price for a Ford or GM. Now, was my purchase the wisest financial decision I’ve ever made? Of course not. But you could say the same thing for large portions of the US auto market in general. People buy way too much car for their needs, and stretch beyond what their finances allow. > **[Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting...](https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-Rise-Nearly-4-Percent-For-January-2018-On-Shifting-Sales-Mix-According-To-Kelley-Blue-Book)** > > IRVINE, Calif., Feb. 1, 2018 The analysts at Kelley Blue Book today reported the estimated average transaction price (ATP) for light vehicles in the United States was $36,270 in January 2018.... ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2004 "2018-10-25T21:54:36Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Apologies, I meant percentile. Saying what you take home AFTER taxes is the same as what 60% of Americans take home BEFORE taxes isn’t really a compelling claim to modest income. For some reason I had read [that page](https://dqydj.com/united-states-household-income-brackets-percentiles/) as being net income, [but it is total pre-tax income](https://cps.ipums.org/cps-action/variables/INCTOT#description_section). My household total pre-tax income for 2017 puts me at about the 64th percentile in the US, so not much of a move up. Definitely far from a one percenter. We’re doing well by any reasonable definition, and I’m not trying to gloss over that, but we’re far from wealthy or rich. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2005 "2018-10-25T22:57:36Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Look, there’s just no universe in which non-wealthy people can afford a car payment somewhere in the $650/month range. Tell that to my mom. For years, she was driving 40k+ miles a year for her job in ~$25k vehicles. $300/mo gas savings can pay for a hell of an increase in car payment. That’s an immediate savings, not something you have to wait around for years to get. Sure, that not an extremely common case, but there are likely millions out there like her. Claiming that Model 3s are still just toys for rich people is untenable at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2006 "2018-10-25T23:10:29Z")
It’s this sort of nonsense that makes it so hard to take Tesla fans seriously. Would you say that Louis Vuitton makes luxury goods for the rich? Of course! But I know someone who wasn’t rich and had something made by them - so that then means that those products are for average folks? No. Tesla hasn’t yet started making products that are anything but high priced cars. They will likely get there at some point, but their own arrogance has delayed that goal by continually doing stupid stuff. See for example how the workers at the plant had to secretly implement quality improvement practices because Musk outlawed them. And also note that Musk has said that making the affordable M3 would bankrupt the company. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2007 "2018-10-25T23:48:17Z")
Louis Vuitton goods never saved anyone money, as far as I know. It’s a pure luxury item, unlike the Tesla. > [@Ravenman](#): > > See for example how the workers at the plant had to secretly implement quality improvement practices because Musk outlawed them. No idea what you’re talking about here. This sounds like that yellow paint lie that someone or other was spreading. > [@Ravenman](#): > > And also note that Musk has said that making the affordable M3 would bankrupt the company. They made 20+% gross margins this quarter. That means their cost of production is still somewhere \>$40k; probably too high a difference to be covered by reduced cell/material costs. They claim that in Q4, gross margins will be stable–improvements in efficiency will be countered by a lower ASP mix. And I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that approximately the same will be true of the next couple of quarters as well. Yes, the _average_ Model 3 customer is almost certainly well-off. They have sold quite a few units at high trim levels. But at the bottom of that range, we have $50k models that are ~$40k after rebate. You don’t need to be uber-wealthy to afford that, particularly if gas costs are significant. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2018, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2008 "2018-10-26T00:23:18Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Louis Vuitton goods never saved anyone money, as far as I know. It’s a pure luxury item, unlike the Tesla. But now we are veering toward viewing EVs and Tesla as being the same thing, like Qtips and cotton swabs. EVs over time COULD save people money, no doubt. It depends on how much you drive them, and what the alternative is. My i3 probably isn’t saving me money – even though my payment is half of what I expect to pay for a Model 3 if that happens to work out – because I just don’t drive enough miles to rack up substantial gas savings to offset the additional cost of an EV. But, EVs have other benefits, of course. They are just better than ICE cars. Period. > [@](#): > > No idea what you’re talking about here. This sounds like that yellow paint lie that someone or other was spreading. I don’t know anything about yellow paint. [https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-extreme-micro-manager.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-extreme-micro-manager.html) > [@](#): > > Behind his back, employees turned to a method pioneered by Toyota, known as “kanban,” to solve their problems. . . . But because kanbans were pioneered by Toyota, workers thought they had to hide their kanban cards from Musk during his visits to the factory. Half a dozen current and former Tesla workers say that supervisors in Fremont warned them that if Musk discovered kanban cards posted around their work areas, they were in danger of being fired. And of course, Tesla denies this. Just like they deny everything that isn’t phrased in the form of an adulation. > [@](#): > > Yes, the _average_ Model 3 customer is almost certainly well-off. They have sold quite a few units at high trim levels. But at the bottom of that range, we have $50k models that are ~$40k after rebate. You don’t need to be uber-wealthy to afford that, particularly if gas costs are significant. It is entirely possible that the majority of Model 3 owners make, say, $80 grand or less. Telsa probably has a pretty good idea of who their customers are, but instead of making the case directly, as they could on many items, they made flashy statements that obviously aren’t responsive, and let people use their imaginations to fill in the blanks. See also, “cars with Autopilot hardware have driven a hezillion miles with low accident rates,” and people just assume that having Autopilot engaged means more safety. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2018, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2009 "2018-10-26T01:07:29Z")
All I’m trying to say, is that all the middle class Americans who are spending $50,000 on a pickup truck could afford to buy a model 3 instead. They both can be viewed as luxury items, but if we go too far down that path we’ll all end up driving used Echoes. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2018, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2010 "2018-10-26T01:30:54Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > But now we are veering toward viewing EVs and Tesla as being the same thing, like Qtips and cotton swabs. Sure. I’m just arguing against the claim that the Model 3 is only for rich people. If the Bolt or i3 or whatever is a better deal for someone in a particular situation, so be it. But some people need 300 miles, some need fast road charging, some need AWD, and so on. So for them, the choice is between an ICE and a Tesla. And while a Model 3 probably won’t pay for the price delta between it and, say, a Yaris, it may well pay for the difference between it and a decent Accord. > [@Ravenman](#): > > And of course, Tesla denies this. Just like they deny everything that isn’t phrased in the form of an adulation. Except for all those times that Musk admitted to over-automation and that the mistake was on him. A bunch of stuff in the article was related to exactly that, including cable harnesses and the battery insulation mat. I’ve only briefly skimmed the article, and it does raise some concerns, but like 70% of it is a reach. Like all the stuff about internal vs. external software systems; this is an eternal struggle with no right answer. Certainly where I work we have our own mix of homebrew and off the shelf shit and you will find no shortage of people complaining, legitimately, about one or the other. Heck, one of the exact systems they mention–Coupa–was a replacement for an internal system we had. To me, it looked like a giant regression, but probably to someone else it was an improvement. We have our own custom bug database, which is pretty much garbage, but nevertheless a huge improvement over the previous thing (based on Lotus Notes). So I’m not impressed with that stuff at all, though the Kanban stuff is potentially concerning. > [@Ravenman](#): > > It is entirely possible that the majority of Model 3 owners make, say, $80 grand or less. I’m not going so far as to claim even that. I’ll bet the median Model 3 customer is in fact very well off by most metrics. Their ASP mix demonstrates that they aren’t dominated by sales at the $49k level. Nevertheless, if even 20% of their sales are to people at a (say) \<60% income percentile, I don’t think it’s fair to claim that it’s solely a car for rich people. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2011 "2018-11-05T22:08:44Z")
Figured I’d put [this](https://www.revealnews.org/article/inside-teslas-factory-a-medical-clinic-designed-to-ignore-injured-workers/) in the Tesla thread: > [@](#): > > When a worker gets smashed by a car part on Tesla’s factory floor, medical staff are forbidden from calling 911 without permission. > > The electric carmaker’s contract doctors rarely grant it, instead often insisting that seriously injured workers – including one who severed the top a finger – be sent to the emergency room in a Lyft. > > Injured employees have been systematically sent back to the production line to work through their pain with no modifications, according to former clinic employees, Tesla factory workers and medical records. Some could barely walk. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2012 "2018-11-05T23:19:50Z")
That’s the same source that went on and on about Tesla underreporting injuries, but a 4-month investigation by CalOSHA found… a single discrepancy in a reporting date. And a misplaced extension cord. They’re also the ones that brought up that stupid yellow paint conspiracy. The article actually mentions the investigation, and points out there were actually _four_ more unreported injuries that weren’t counted because they fell outside the statute of limitations. Oh jeez oh man, four misreported injuries over a period of months or maybe years in a factory with ten thousand workers. Stop the presses, we got a story here. Maybe the stuff in the story is true and maybe not, but what’s obvious is that they make no effort to put any of the numbers in context. It’s all just subjective “I’ve never seen this kind of thing before” stuff. As for Lyft, it’s likely to lead to [better outcomes](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/upshot/uber-lyft-and-the-urgency-of-saving-money-on-ambulances.html) for non-emergencies. Many health care organizations already use Uber/Lyft. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2013 "2018-11-05T23:58:27Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Figured I’d put [this](https://www.revealnews.org/article/inside-teslas-factory-a-medical-clinic-designed-to-ignore-injured-workers/) in the Tesla thread: Tbf where I work we’re supposed to call central security in an emergency and not 911, because they will marshal the correct on site response team and then call 911 to get the needed services. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2014 "2018-11-08T19:04:21Z")
Interesting article on the Performance Model 3 with the release version “Track Mode” software, which seems to have been personally tweaked by Randy Pobst in the last few weeks (along with equipping some better tires). Manages to get lap times equal to a porsche cayman Gt4, and beat a 2011 Ferrari 458 Italia. [Tesla Model 3 Performance Track Mode (Release Version): Ludicrous Handling](https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2019/tesla-model-3-performance-track-mode-release-version-review/) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2015 "2018-11-09T05:27:08Z")
That is pretty cool. As far as I know, the situation of having a passenger making changes via laptop in real time is not that uncommon (lots of cars have some degree of programmable control), but the idea of pushing the tweaks out to owners only a week later \*is \*exclusively Tesla. I got the 42.4 update last night. Says they added keyfob support and increased regen braking. It did seem like there was an increase in regen, but it was hard to be sure. Anyone else try the dashcam functionality yet? It seems to work pretty well. I bought a Raspberry Pi Zero W (a little Linux computer with WiFi), which I plan on setting up in USB emulation mode. Essentially, it pretends to be a USB stick, which the car will write its dashcam recordings to. But I can write some scripts for it to automatically connect to my home WiFi and upload any recordings to my file server. Only one problem I’m running into; the USB ports aren’t all the time and there’s no obvious place to get always-on power in that location. I’ll probably have to kludge together some kind of battery backup system. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2016 "2018-11-09T07:55:08Z")
This is kinda nifty: [tow-charging a Model 3](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUJKSoSsqgg). Even at only 15 mph, the car can charge at 1050 Wh/mi. For the unit analysis types, that’s 15.7 kilowatts. Not bad! The guy then drives without a tow at 20 mph, which requires 100 Wh/mi, and so he gets more than 10 additional miles out of it. But even at 70 mph he’d be getting 4 miles of range per mile of towing (250 Wh/mi). I wonder how it would do being towed at higher speeds. The regen deceleration is pretty constant in a Tesla, which means power scales with speed. Not sure I’d use a tow rope at 60 mph (it’s illegal on the freeway in any case), but 30-40 mph might be interesting. The regen power should be proportionally higher (roughly 1 kW/mph), though there may be other internal limits. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2017 "2018-11-09T08:06:14Z")
A little more math: 15 mph = 6.7 m/s mass = 1730 kg 1 W = 1 kg-m^2/s^3 15700 W / (6.7 m/s \* 1730 kg) = 1.35 m/s^2 = 0.138 g [According to Motor Trend](https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2017/the-automobile-2-0-chevrolet-bolt-ev-premier-vs-nissan-leaf-sl-vs-tesla-model-3-long-range/), the Model 3 has a high regen rate of 0.16 g. So we’re right in the ballpark. In fact, 0.138/0.16 = 86%, which may just reflect moderate inefficiency in charging (there’s some loss in both the motor and battery). Yay physics! ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2018 "2018-11-20T18:21:56Z")
Is there a store at the Tesla delivery centre that sells the items available online? Chargers, floor mats, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2018, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2019 "2018-11-21T07:15:41Z")
Not in my experience. When I had my car delivered, I asked if they had the wheel cap kit, but they said to just order it online. IIRC they had some t-shirts and stuff, just not car accessories. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2018, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2020 "2018-11-21T07:44:49Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Not in my experience. When I had my car delivered, I asked if they had the wheel cap kit, but they said to just order it online. IIRC they had some t-shirts and stuff, just not car accessories. Good to know, thanks. ---
**Author:** ![CrimeThink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/90db22/32.png) [@CrimeThink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrimeThink)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2018, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/2021 "2018-11-25T01:00:25Z")
I finally convinced myself to stop being my usual cheap self and pulled the trigger on a Model 3 LR AWD, black with white interior and 19 inch wheels. My lease isn’t up until March but Tesla is guaranteeing December delivery if ordered by the 30th. I figure the extra tax rebates makes it worth a few wasted lease payments. I considered buying the mid range battery to save some money, but I really wanted the dual motor that is only available on the LR currently. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=100) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=102)