# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2017, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/221 "2017-11-14T13:32:58Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I don’t have _infinite_ patience for build defects, but the advantages of an EV (and in particular a Tesla) can make up for a lot. All gas cars have the gigantic noise defect of their engine. A bit more wind noise is acceptable if the total noise level goes down. That’s not necessarily true. I currently drive a Mustang, and the damned (fake) engine noise is pumped into the cabin! As much as I’d like to rip out this “feature,” it’s a company car and I can’t. Prior to that I had a Fusion Energi, and managed to run it nearly 100% of the time on electric only mode. It was very, very quiet. But do you know what else is _equally_ quiet? The MKS, even with a turbo-charged V6. Active noise cancellation, thicker glass, and lots of body sealer and stiffeners make modern, gasoline powered cars exceptionally quiet these days. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2017, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/222 "2017-11-14T22:48:05Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I don’t mean to belittle anyone who is very enthusiastic about getting the Model 3 they have been waiting on for years. I will probably go car shopping in another few years, and there’s no question I’m going to test drive a Model 3 then. I question whether there will be a model 3 in a coupe of years to test drive. They’re burning through money intended to bring production on-line in order for them to have working cash flow going forward. How deep do you think that well is? ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/223 "2017-11-15T01:55:59Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I’ve always liked expressing common things in unusual but equivalent units. It leads to useful insights–it really is the case, assuming you have a 40 mile commute, that it only needs 7 minutes of Supercharger time to charge for that trip. > > It vaguely annoys me that EV efficiency isn’t measured in Newtons. A Model S uses about 300 W-h/mile. That’s equivalent to 671 N, or 68 kg in Earth gravity. Which is of course the combined force on the vehicle (aero, friction, resistivity, etc.) when traveling at the rated speed. > > Also, a 30 mpg car should be rated as 0.078 mm[sup]2[/sup]. That’s the area of a thread of gas the car needs to “eat” as it travels down the road. I can see why you’re an ardent Tesla fan. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/224 "2017-11-15T02:10:16Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > I can see why you’re an ardent Tesla fan. I like Tesla, but I prefer kilograms per coulomb-second. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/225 "2017-11-15T02:50:27Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I question whether there will be a model 3 in a coupe of years to test drive. They’re burning through money intended to bring production on-line in order for them to have working cash flow going forward. How deep do you think that well is? Well, for how many years have you been predicting the imminent demise of Tesla? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/226 "2017-11-15T03:31:14Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Well, for how many years have you been predicting the imminent demise of Tesla? The same number of years they’ve been burning through capital? They’re currently struggling with battery production which is supposed to be Tesla’s strength. They’ve produced almost no Model 3’s at a time when they were supposed to be in mass production and generating capital going forward. They cannot compensate for lost sales in 2017 and the money they’re spending to fix the problem adds to the production cost of every vehicle made in the future. In short, they are going to take a loss on these cars regardless of any infusion of capital. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/227 "2017-11-15T05:11:01Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > That’s not necessarily true. I currently drive a Mustang, and the damned (fake) engine noise is pumped into the cabin! The new Mustang [also has a “quiet mode”](https://blog.caranddriver.com/hushed-horses-ford-adds-quiet-exhaust-mode-to-2018-mustang-gt/) for _outside_ the cabin. You’re certainly right that new cars have gotten quieter; my point is just that you have to consider the overall noise level. And I do actually care about external noise, which doesn’t seem to have improved much. Just one of many factors to consider. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/228 "2017-11-15T12:17:53Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > The new Mustang [also has a “quiet mode”](https://blog.caranddriver.com/hushed-horses-ford-adds-quiet-exhaust-mode-to-2018-mustang-gt/) for _outside_ the cabin. > > You’re certainly right that new cars have gotten quieter; my point is just that you have to consider the overall noise level. And I do actually care about external noise, which doesn’t seem to have improved much. Just one of many factors to consider. The Mustang has a tube that physically pipes noise into the cabin from the intake because the engine is too quiet. I drive a car that focuses on performance and very little cabin noise comes from the engine. Cabin noise is a function of insulation from wind and road noise and not engine. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/229 "2017-11-15T14:05:58Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > The same number of years they’ve been burning through capital? So you’ve been predicting the end of Tesla for longer than they have been a publicly traded company. Since the IPO in 2009, the stock price has gone up by 18 times. The total market cap is about two-thirds that of Toyota, even though Tesla has sold as many cars in its history as Toyota sells each month. For all of Tesla’s problems, if you were my investment adviser and told me to short Tesla eight years ago, you would have been fired a thousand times over and run out of town on a rail. So like the hobo who wanders around town with the sign, “The end is near!” I acknowledge that you only have to be right once, but you’ve been wrong for an awfully long time. > [@](#): > > They’re currently struggling with battery production which is supposed to be Tesla’s strength. I think Tesla’s strength is designing cars. Not making batteries or cars. Isn’t the Gigafactory a little more than a Panasonic operation with a Tesla sign on the door? > [@](#): > > In short, they are going to take a loss on these cars regardless of any infusion of capital. Pardon me, but this sounds like nonsense. What company turns a profit on sales due to capital infusions? Capital infusions are generally for facilitization and things like that, not to recoup margin on sales. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/230 "2017-11-15T16:22:08Z")
Except that Tesla is no longer just a car company. It is a Solar Energy / Battery / Car company. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/231 "2017-11-15T22:44:24Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > So you’ve been predicting the end of Tesla for longer than they have been a publicly traded company. Since the IPO in 2009, the stock price has gone up by 18 times. The total market cap is about two-thirds that of Toyota, even though Tesla has sold as many cars in its history as Toyota sells each month. If the car company was properly funded then why did they ask for money down on a car that was nowhere near ready for mass production? They were going to go bankrupt if they didn’t going public. > [@Ravenman](#): > > For all of Tesla’s problems, if you were my investment adviser and told me to short Tesla eight years ago, you would have been fired a thousand times over and run out of town on a rail. So like the hobo who wanders around town with the sign, “The end is near!” I acknowledge that you only have to be right once, but you’ve been wrong for an awfully long time. show me where I’ve been wrong on Tesla’s ability to deliver on what they promised? One example will do. > [@Ravenman](#): > > Pardon me, but this sounds like nonsense. What company turns a profit on sales due to capital infusions? Capital infusions are generally for facilitization and things like that, not to recoup margin on sales. They’re burning through cash and they’ve yet to produce a car in quantity. Explain how that works? How much money did they take in on pre-orders? All I’ve heard is excuses for the greatness of Tesla without any thought given to the reality of the undertaking. If anything I’ve understated the level of failure that’s occurred in the past and is occurring now. This is Tucker all over again only this time nobody is trying to bury Tesla. They’re doing it to themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/232 "2017-11-15T22:57:04Z")
Did Elon Musk run over your puppy at some point? Cut you off in traffic? This jihad you have about Tesla is really out of control. I’m not saying that Tesla is beyond criticism, but damn. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/233 "2017-11-15T23:31:52Z")
If Tesla didn’t have Musk’s wallet behind it I’d have a lot more reason to believe **Magiver** is mostly right and the whole thing may have started legitimately but is now merely a Ponzi scheme to collect a lot of deposits (or stock market valuation) from the rubes before reality sets in. Given that Tesla actually does have Musk’s wallet & ego behind it, I think \*\*Magiver \*\*is discounting those factors to zero. And IMO that’s a mistake. Those factors mean there’s a hefty chance Tesla does cross that Valley of Death on the way to selling at scale for per-unit positive cash flow. Which is enough to keep the project going UFN. Might he later sell the brand, or the design, or some tech innards goodness to GM / Toyota / VW & call it quits? Sure. But that’s business, not a criminal conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/234 "2017-11-15T23:39:42Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Isn’t the Gigafactory a little more than a Panasonic operation with a Tesla sign on the door? No. The cell production is largely Panasonic, but the Gigafactory produces complete packs. A pack is way more than just a bunch of cells soldered together; it has thermal management and various electronic bits. The pack production is the current Model 3 bottleneck, not the cells. They outsourced the automation development for some of the pack production and the developer failed to meet their deadlines, stalling production. Under other circumstances I’d blame it on the common element–i.e., Tesla. However, Tesla (and SpaceX for that matter) has a long history of contract companies dropping the ball (or just saying that something is impossible or will cost way more than is reasonable), and then Tesla insourcing the project and doing it correctly. It appears that this will be a similar situation as they’ve already dedicated an internal engineering staff to rework it. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2017, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/235 "2017-11-15T23:45:26Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > show me where I’ve been wrong on Tesla’s ability to deliver on what they promised? One example will do. That will be tough, since so many of your claims fall into the “not even wrong” category. > [@Magiver](#): > > This is Tucker all over again only this time nobody is trying to bury Tesla. They’re doing it to themselves. Really, dude? You can’t seriously believe this. Tucker produced 51 cars total. Tesla has produced a quarter million. This is really the longest of long cons. And “nobody is trying to bury Tesla” is the biggest laugh I’ve had all day. I know you can do better than this. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2017, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/236 "2017-11-16T00:34:18Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Did Elon Musk run over your puppy at some point? Cut you off in traffic? > > This jihad you have about Tesla is really out of control. I’m not saying that Tesla is beyond criticism, but damn. Well forgive some of us for getting tired of the knee-jerk response to _any_ criticism of Tesla as being “Tesla haters.” and I’m _really_ getting tired of people who have no idea how cars are made condescendingly trying to explain to me how cars are made. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2017, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/237 "2017-11-16T01:11:44Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > Well forgive some of us for getting tired of the knee-jerk response to _any_ criticism of Tesla as being “Tesla haters.” I went back an looked at every one of your posts. I would say I agree with the points you made in very nearly every one of them, I strongly agreed with quite a few of your posts, and I learned a few things from some of them as well. If you go back and look at my posts in this thread, while I’m sure I don’t have the expertise that you do, I’ve been strongly critical of Tesla on some points, and I’ve surely been complementary to Tesla on a handful. But **Magiver** ’s criticism of Tesla is routinely unconvincing and indicative of a grudge, in my opinion. I don’t think there’s any careful thought put into his arguments, and a few of them just seem to be from another planet entirely. In another thread, he argued something to the effect that Tesla is going to cut Model 3 production to become a Powerwall company. I just don’t know where he gets some of this stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2017, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/238 "2017-11-16T02:04:50Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Did Elon Musk run over your puppy at some point? Cut you off in traffic? > > This jihad you have about Tesla is really out of control. I’m not saying that Tesla is beyond criticism, but damn. If you remember I’ve praised his luxury sports cars and given him credit for exploiting a long known fact about electric motors. They deliver 100% torque at startup. He nailed a previously untapped niche in cars. But as a car company, Tesla has consistently failed to deliver on projected deliveries and that was with small production runs of luxury cars. Show me where I’ve been unfair to Tesla based on their past and present performance. Tell my why my prediction they would have problems with the Model 3 was wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2017, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/239 "2017-11-16T02:20:10Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Given that Tesla actually does have Musk’s wallet & ego behind it, I think \*\*Magiver \*\*is discounting those factors to zero. And IMO that’s a mistake. Those factors mean there’s a hefty chance Tesla does cross that Valley of Death on the way to selling at scale for per-unit positive cash flow. Which is enough to keep the project going UFN. Elon Musk is worth 19 billion on paper. I don’t know how much that is worth if he liquidates but Tesla could burn through that pretty quick. His battery storage business is something he can make money on. If the Model 3 continues to burn through capital then at some point he will be forced to concentrate on the profitable nodes of business to keep from going bankrupt. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2017, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/240 "2017-11-16T03:09:07Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Show me where I’ve been unfair to Tesla based on their past and present performance. Just hours ago, someone pointed out that you think a company that has sold a quarter of a million cars and is the third largest capitalized car company (which has never turns a profit, to be sure) is the same as a company that made 51 cars before going completely bankrupt. That’s a pretty unfair comparison. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=13)