# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/361 "2017-11-23T18:16:31Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > so? Just saying, if you’re going to talk about production per unit plant area, you need to count all of it, including offsite factories. You could produce 100M cars/yr at NUMMI if all they did was bolt on the wheels. The numbers aren’t directly comparable. At any rate, EVs are different enough from ICEs that I doubt one could guess within a factor of 2 based solely on plant area. And the Model 3 in particular looks like a fairly simple build. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/362 "2017-11-23T18:25:37Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > It sorta surprises me how slow the robots go (not from that video specifically, but in general). I realize there’s a tradeoff between precision, speed, and other things, but it sure seems like that could be improved a lot. Maybe some stuff is limited by the fragility of the product, but clearly a lot of stuff isn’t. it’s a control system. sensors have to indicate when a part is in a proper position before the robot(s) can do their thing. parts carriers and fixtures have mass, and there’s only so rapidly you can feasibly accelerate something. and in the case of the stamping processes, you have to worry about how quickly you form the metal. Aluminum especially is susceptible to work-hardening if formed improperly, which can lead to cracking with age. > [@](#): > > I wonder why there isn’t more carbon fiber in the robots. They all seem to be made of bulky steel. Cheap, but heavy. Carbon fiber is strong and stiff per unit weight, and by my reckoning lightness is everything in a robot, because it affects how much power the motors need, how much deflection you get from gravity and movement, and so on. Basically everything gets better if you can do the same thing lighter. probably because it wouldn’t lighten things up enough to make a worthwhile difference. You seem to be just stating as obvious fact that the weight of the robotic assemblies is a limiting factor when you have no evidence. here’s a hint- the line moves at a constant speed. The speed of the line is limited by the slowest operation, even if it’s something way downstream such as installing the body wiring harness. the robots will run at the rate needed to keep the line moving w/o trying to shove assemblies into a bottleneck. > [@](#): > > Clearly, CF isn’t cheap but it’s getting cheaper. There seems to be some research into using it for robotics but not a lot. you’re again doing a geek thing of saying “why aren’t they using (fancy new thing I like)” without considering whether (fancy new thing you like) will actually solve any of the problems. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/363 "2017-11-23T18:35:56Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Just saying, if you’re going to talk about production per unit plant area, you need to count all of it, including offsite factories. You could produce 100M cars/yr at NUMMI if all they did was bolt on the wheels. The numbers aren’t directly comparable. No, I don’t, because you completely missed the point. Tesla’s claiming improbable production numbers out of Fremont, and you responded by saying “well tesla is getting bigger stuff like the battery from a different plant.” which means Tesla is going to build the model 3 the same way Toyota built vehicles. How are they going to get much higher production rate if they’re doing it much the same way as Toyota did in the same plant? > [@](#): > > That’s all I’m talking about. Tesla doesn’t launch new model years they way other automakers do. and every new model launch Tesla has had since the Roadster has been disastrous. Hmmm… > [@](#): > > At any rate, EVs are different enough from ICEs that I doubt one could guess within a factor of 2 based solely on plant area. And the Model 3 in particular looks like a fairly simple build. No, they really aren’t. the biggest differences between ICEs and EVs are of course the power pack (electric motor and power/drive module) and the battery. Well, you know what? Even with Tesla, the power pack reaches the line as a module with the motor(s) assembled to the final drive, mounted on a cradle with the axle shafts attached. the car is suspended overhead with the powerpack on a fixture/carrier below it, and the conveyors lower the car and raise the powerpack module until they meet, then someone bolts them together. With an ICEV, the powepack (engine+transaxle) reaches the line mounted in a cradle with the axle shafts attached. the car is suspended overhead with the powerpack on a fixture/carrier below it, and the conveyors lower the car and raise the powerpack module until they meet, then someone bolts them together. With an EV, the battery comes in to the line as a unit, travels down the line on a carrier with the car overhead. the conveyors lower the car and raise the battery until they meet, then someone bolts them together and attaches the HV cables. With an ICEV, the fuel tank comes in as an assembly on a carrier with the car overhead, the conveyors bring the two together, and someone bolts them together and attaches the fuel lines. So what is so different about EVs? Nothing I’ve watched how Fremont assembles Teslas looks anything different than anything I’ve seen in the dozen or so other assembly plants I’ve been in. Oh wait- Tesla doesn’t need as many fluid fill stations near the end of the line. big whoop. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/364 "2017-11-23T18:47:46Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > it’s a control system. sensors have to indicate when a part is in a proper position before the robot(s) can do their thing. Of course. Computer vision is a thing (and something I’m familiar with) and getting better all the time. It can be incredibly fast. > [@jz78817](#): > > parts carriers and fixtures have mass, and there’s only so rapidly you can feasibly accelerate something. and in the case of the stamping processes, you have to worry about how quickly you form the metal. Aluminum especially is susceptible to work-hardening if formed improperly, which can lead to cracking with age. Fixtures and stuff can also be made lighter. If the item itself is deflecting, add more hold points. Stamping and stuff I agree with; it’s not just a physical movement process. Welding, too (though the robots can move faster between welds). > [@jz78817](#): > > You seem to be just stating as obvious fact that the weight of the robotic assemblies is a limiting factor when you have no evidence. I claim it’s obvious that lighter is better, all else being equal. Lightness helps just about every physical process. What I don’t know is why advanced materials aren’t used. Could be lots of stuff, from cost (the most likely) to undesirable properties in a factory environment to historical momentum, but whatever it is, it’s not because you _want_ the thing to be heavy. Even when you need extra weight for some reason like balance or vibration damping, it’s best to make everything else as light as possible and add the weight only exactly where you need it (like trim weights in aircraft). > [@jz78817](#): > > here’s a hint- the line moves at a constant speed. The speed of the line is limited by the slowest operation, even if it’s something way downstream such as installing the body wiring harness. Yeah, so? If one stage is slow and can’t be otherwise sped up, then parallelize it. And don’t buy the fancy robots for stages that are already underutilized (although hopefully the production people wouldn’t let this happen in the first place). ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/365 "2017-11-23T18:53:58Z")
I give up. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/366 "2017-11-23T18:56:35Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I haven’t predicted a compete disaster for Tesla. Uh, you’ve said things to the effect that you believe Tesla will become primarily a parts and Powerwall company. If that isn’t disaster, I don’t know what is. That sort of failure in a company’s main business is what has happened to the likes of Polaroid - and I wouldn’t call them a success. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/367 "2017-11-23T19:12:26Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Uh, you’ve said things to the effect that you believe Tesla will become primarily a parts and Powerwall company. If that isn’t disaster, I don’t know what is. That sort of failure in a company’s main business is what has happened to the likes of Polaroid - and I wouldn’t call them a success. even if Tesla were to become primarily an energy storage company and ended up supplying batteries for a million EVs a year made by everyone else instead of building their own cars, I think Elon would still feel pretty successful. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/368 "2017-11-23T19:40:27Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > keep in mind that the average auto plant is already pretty highly automated. … Yes. I was thinking today as standard state of the art vs NUMMI at its peak in 2006. Eleven years later, and longer from when the lines were put in of course, is long enough that standard robotic technology being put in all upgrading plants may have advanced significantly. And I do think **Dr. Strangelove** ’s basic point is valid: how many steps are required to do the assembly of a Tesla 3 at that site vs how many steps were required to do the assembly done there for the various vehicles at NUMMI’s peak? More? Less? Do we know? Unless we do predicting what is possible out of NUMMI based on what was done before is of little value. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/369 "2017-11-23T20:55:10Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > I give up. Ok. Happy Thanksgiving! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2017, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/370 "2017-11-23T21:21:44Z")
Tesla does occasionally get things done early. [They’ve succeeded in their “100 days or it’s free” battery installation](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/11/elon-musk-wins-bet-finishing-massive-battery-installation-in-100-days/). I don’t think Tesla wants to be a battery company–but the more batteries they produce, the cheaper they get. So having a lot of different uses for them drives down the cost of EVs. They certainly think that prices are coming down fast. The Tesla semi has a ~1000 kW-h battery for $180k. That’s a great price even if all you were paying for was the battery. And since they do in fact have lots of other components to pay for, the price is probably well under $100/kW-h. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2017, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/371 "2017-11-24T00:03:38Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I also think it’s unrealistic to think there aren’t going to be large numbers of chargers around town just as there are gas stations. It’s a market driven inevitability because it’s too expensive to quick charge something at home. Maybe that will change. Imagine there was a company out there that was installing in-garage home gas stations for $400 (for most garage layouts) Completely fume-less, safe, and the cost of gas is $0.20 less per gallon than every station nearby. The only catch is that it only trickles out a gallon per hour, so you have to leave it in all night, but hey, full tank every morning. How much gas station market share you think it’s going to capture within 15 years? Personally, I think it’d probably close down at least half of them. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2017, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/372 "2017-11-24T00:20:27Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Uh, you’ve said things to the effect that you believe Tesla will become primarily a parts and Powerwall company. If that isn’t disaster, I don’t know what is. That sort of failure in a company’s main business is what has happened to the likes of Polaroid - and I wouldn’t call them a success. Yes, I’ve said if they can’t compete in the car market they will shift toward things that make money. Happens all the time. It doesn’t mean Tesla folds. You act like the Powerwall is a bad thing to make money on. If the whole world is going EV then being the premier battery maker would be an enviable position to be in. “Powered by Tesla” will be stamped on cars as a badge of honor. I’ve also said that the Model 3 is a financial make-or-break for the company as a car manufacturer. $6.7 million a day is going into the Model 3 plant when they should be spitting out cars and making money. They’ve already lost 63,000 buyers from the initial launch. Consider how many products have generated enough excitement that people will put a down payment on a car they’ve never seen. If that confidence and excitement disappears then future financing is going to be difficult. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2017, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/373 "2017-11-24T02:20:47Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > As applied to EV chargers, the smart move would be for the car manufacturers to bundle the charger and installation into the price of the vehicle and make it eligible to be paid for by the car loan. With a price break for folks (e.g. apartment dwellers) who can’t take a charger home. that’s not a bad idea as well as a foot in the door for a powerwall. ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2017, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/374 "2017-11-24T05:45:25Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > SDVs are mostly orthogonal to EV vs. ICE. And yes they’re yet another wildcard in the deck. But IMO not one worth injecting into this particular thread. We’ve all got enough guesswork piled on conjecture already. 🙂 Not at all orthogonal. All those range anxiety problems and problems with finding a place to charge? In a world where SDCs are beginning to become available, Magiver could just chill about the range. If he wants to go somewhere and he doesn’t feel like driving, he could just pull out his phone, pick the destination, and a SDC with enough range to get him there shows up. Since EVs are going to be cheaper to operate soon-ish, if the destination is close, an EV will probably show up, and a hybrid if the destination is far. Magiver need not ever install his own charger. He need not give up his current vehicles, either - just not fix them when they break if SDCs turn out to be as amazing as most predict. Same with you, LSLguy. No reason for your condo association to ever allow chargers, SDCs can chauffeur you around and they can go charge wherever. (I’m guessing that large parking lot owners would start installing automated chargers if SDCs become common) Also, I think the rocket ship acceleration and the individual wheel motor control of SDCs could potentially make them slightly safer by giving them more ways to get out of accidents (besides braking which is not a cure-all) ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2017, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/375 "2017-11-25T20:19:23Z")
The [Model 3 owners manual](https://www.scribd.com/document/365366630/Tesla-Model-3-Owners-Manual) has shown up online. As I resign myself to probably not getting one until summer 2018 (3/31/16 reservation), something like this comes along and makes me anxious to get it all over again. Some things that entertained me in good, bad, safety, of course it should do that ways: [ul] [li]If the car is in gear and you get out, it will shift to park.[/li][li]The headlights turn on when the wipers are turned on (slow or high, not mist, wash, or interval).[/li][li]The side mirrors remember their position for reverse and drive, and automatically position accordingly, unless this feature is turned off.[/li][li]If you close the front trunk wrong, you might break it.[/li][li]No need to turn it off, just put it in park and walk away.[/li][li]Auto steering turns off at 90 mph.[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2017, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/376 "2017-11-25T20:54:43Z")
You reserved this over a year and a half ago and don’t expect to get it for another 8 months? Best Thread title EVER. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2017, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/377 "2017-11-25T22:18:03Z")
It certainly says a lot about Tesla compared to the alternatives that people are willing to wait 2-3 years. Some good stuff in that manual. I really like the “walk up, get in, and drive” concept, and all the little details that enable it (auto-unlocking doors, shift into drive when the brake is pressed, etc.). Frunk closing has been a problem area with the Model S and X as well. I think it’s partly a function of existing regulations on the kind of latch they’re allowed to use, but I’m not sure about that. They also don’t want to have a super-reinforced (and heavy) hood, so it ends up being kinda delicate. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2017, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/378 "2017-11-25T23:57:17Z")
[quote=“echoreply, post:375, topic:792478”] Some things that entertained me in good, bad, safety, of course it should do that ways: [li]If the car is in gear and you get out, it will shift to park.[/li][/quote] so will a Ford Fusion, among others. [quote] [li]The headlights turn on when the wipers are turned on (slow or high, not mist, wash, or interval).[/li][/quote] so would a 2001 Crown Victoria, among others [quote] [li]The side mirrors remember their position for reverse and drive, and automatically position accordingly, unless this feature is turned off.[/li][/quote] So will a Honda Odyssey, among others. [quote] [li]If you close the front trunk wrong, you might break it.[/li][/quote] Usually you don’t design body closures so they can be broken if closed “Wrong.” [quote] [li]Auto steering turns off at 90 mph.[/li][/QUOTE] which is not legal to drive anywhere in this country. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2017, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/379 "2017-11-26T01:45:53Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > Usually you don’t design body closures so they can be broken if closed “Wrong.” As far as I know, it’s not advised (and can break things, cause misalignment, etc.) to close frameless window doors by pushing on the glass. My 330i has specific instructions on how to close the hood. It does not state the consequences for not following the instructions, but it’s clear that some techniques, like resting the hood on the latch and pushing halfway up the length would cause damage (it’s easy to deform even with light pressure). Do you know why hoods are generally not that rigid? Cost? Weight? Pedestrian safety? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2017, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/380 "2017-11-26T06:52:06Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > As far as I know, it’s not advised (and can break things, cause misalignment, etc.) to close frameless window doors by pushing on the glass. > > My 330i has specific instructions on how to close the hood. It does not state the consequences for not following the instructions, but it’s clear that some techniques, like resting the hood on the latch and pushing halfway up the length would cause damage (it’s easy to deform even with light pressure). > > Do you know why hoods are generally not that rigid? Cost? Weight? Pedestrian safety? So far I’m only aware of the 330i and Model 3. I’ve never owned a car or operated the hood latch on someone else’s car that required instructions from a manual. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=20)