# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2018, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/662 "2018-02-03T23:46:04Z")
Tesla is a public company and can get into serious shit for lying about stuff like that. I’d believe their filings over someone else’s estimates. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/663 "2018-02-04T01:33:15Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > Tesla is a public company and can get into serious shit for lying about stuff like that. I’d believe their filings over someone else’s estimates. I literally don’t know what you’re trying to say. I’m saying the numbers don’t look right. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/664 "2018-02-04T01:58:16Z")
If InsideEVs numbers contradict Tesla, then it’s InsideEVs numbers that are wrong. Tesla would get slapped down hardcore for intentionally lying on something like that. InsideEVs just comes up with a number based on VIN number counting and (apparently) talking to factory workers. They acknowledge that it’s just an estimate, particularly for Tesla since they don’t generally report monthly figures (just quarterly). We’ll probably find out more on 2/7, since that’s their earnings announcement date, although I don’t think they’re obligated to report anything about post-Q4. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/665 "2018-02-04T02:21:51Z")
Since They have yet to hit a target they’ve provided I’m not sure what your point is about being smacked down for bad information. Are there numbers posted by Tesla? I posted what I could find. I was expecting a higher number given their production in December. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/666 "2018-02-04T02:57:29Z")
Missing a _prediction_ is one thing. Lying about what you’ve actually produced is another. As I said, Tesla doesn’t post monthly figures. So it’s all guesses until they say something concrete. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/667 "2018-02-04T03:09:03Z")
[quote=“Dr.Strangelove, post:666, topic:792478”] Missing a _prediction_ is one thing. Lying about what you’ve actually produced is another. [/quotes] Since I wasn’t discussing that I’m not sure why you’re bringing it up. > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > As I said, Tesla doesn’t post monthly figures. So it’s all guesses until they say something concrete. We’ve had a series of production numbers from various sources in the past. I’m not sure why you’re dismissing them. Tesla gave an estimate of 2,500 per week in the first quarter and gave a hard umber of 1000 week ending the 2017 run. If nothing improved there should be at least 4,000 cars in January. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/668 "2018-02-04T03:44:55Z")
Again, that number is just a third-party estimate. There’s no particular reason to believe it’s accurate. They’re probably pretty good for Model S and X production since there’s some history to go by; less so for the Model 3. Aside from that: - the factory was apparently shut down for a week in January - deliveries can be delayed by a few weeks compared to production (rail transport is slow) - Tesla only said that they made 793 Model 3s in a week, and the 1000/wk was extrapolation from the last few days. That doesn’t mean they can immediately sustain 1000+/wk, just that they’re capable of hitting that in a burst. I believe that Tesla indeed manufactured 793 Model 3s in a week–again, they’d get slapped down hard for lying about something that that. Everything else is just extrapolation and subject to error. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/669 "2018-02-04T07:39:57Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I literally don’t know what you’re trying to say. I’m saying the numbers don’t look right. Then I don’t know what to tell you? It’s not like the one sentence I said was nuanced or subject to much interpretation. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/670 "2018-02-04T07:50:45Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Again, that number is just a third-party estimate. There’s no particular reason to believe it’s accurate. They’re probably pretty good for Model S and X production since there’s some history to go by; less so for the Model 3. > > Aside from that: > > - the factory was apparently shut down for a week in January > - deliveries can be delayed by a few weeks compared to production (rail transport is slow) > - Tesla only said that they made 793 Model 3s in a week, and the 1000/wk was extrapolation from the last few days. That doesn’t mean they can immediately sustain 1000+/wk, just that they’re capable of hitting that in a burst. > > I believe that Tesla indeed manufactured 793 Model 3s in a week–again, they’d get slapped down hard for lying about something that that. Everything else is just extrapolation and subject to error. you’re just back on the Elon express apology tour. outside sources are accurate for other models but not the model 3. The factory shut down, trains are slow, 793 in the last part of a week was a burst of production… Tesla said they were going to build 2,500 per week in quarter one. Not a burst of 1000. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/671 "2018-02-04T16:55:36Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > Then I don’t know what to tell you? It’s not like the one sentence I said was nuanced or subject to much interpretation. You could tell me where Tesla has put out numbers to get themselves into trouble. Your statement made no sense. You might as well say Tesla could get into trouble for deliberately building dangerously defective cars. While it’s a true statement there’s no evidence they did. Thus I doin’t understand what you’re trying to say. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/672 "2018-02-05T00:16:27Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Tesla said they were going to build 2,500 per week in quarter one. Not a burst of 1000. [Let’s see what they actually said](http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=1053245) (bolding mine): > [@](#): > > In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3’s, and in the **last few days** , we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that **extrapolates** to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week. > … > As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely **ending** the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. Even ignoring the various caveats (“likely”, “about”), they most certainly did not say they’d manufacture 2,500/wk in Jan. In fact they said the exact opposite by claiming it would be a gradual ramp towards those numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/673 "2018-02-05T00:56:13Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > outside sources are accurate for other models but not the model 3. You’re referring to Inside EVs as the “outside source?” Because Inside EVs (which I read all the time) states this: > [@](#): > > Top Manufacturers Of Plug-In Vehicles: > > Tesla\* – 3,375 > General Motors – 1,890 > Toyota – 1,496 > BMW Group – 1,018 > Ford – 947 > All-Electric Vehicle Market Share vs PHEV In January\* > > PHEV – 6,206 > BEV – 5,910 > \*\*(\*) estimated due to unknown official Tesla sales in the U.S. \*\*and BMW i3 REX vs. BEV sales. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/674 "2018-02-05T01:29:49Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > You’re referring to Inside EVs as the “outside source?” Because Inside EVs (which I read all the time) states this: Which has nothing to do with the model 3 discussion or what I said. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/675 "2018-02-05T01:31:08Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > [Let’s see what they actually said](http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=1053245) (bolding mine): > Even ignoring the various caveats (“likely”, “about”), they most certainly did not say they’d manufacture 2,500/wk in Jan. In fact they said the exact opposite by claiming it would be a gradual ramp towards those numbers. [He originally said 5,000 per week by end of 2017, then by March of 2018, then 2,500 by March of 2018.](https://www.wired.com/story/musk-model-3-tesla-production-delays-january/) Did I miss an announcement? He’s already through January and can’t meet the reduced weekly number in the entire month. He’s going to have to improve each week going forward by 11% or make 9000 every week to meet his obligations. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/676 "2018-02-05T01:55:52Z")
I don’t think you understand what a _rate_ is. Tesla did not say they would produce 30k vehicles in Q1. They said they would hit a rate of 2,500/wk by the end. They could meet this projection (not an obligation) by closing the factory for the first 89 days of Q1 and then building 360 cars on the last day. They did mention a gradual ramp. If you extrapolate exponentially from 793/wk to 2500/wk, you get approximately 19k cars in Q1. We’ll find out in two months if they can hit that. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/677 "2018-02-05T02:52:17Z")
I don’t think you understand how far behind they are and how little progress they’re making. they need to be making 9000 cars a week NOW. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/678 "2018-02-05T03:07:08Z")
What are you talking about? Tesla _never_ promised rates close to 10k/wk until the _end_ of 2018. And they are no longer projecting out that far anyway. Obviously they will sell as many cars as they can make at this point. But saying they “need” to make 9k/wk is just delusional nonsense, out of step with even the rosiest projections Tesla ever made, let alone what’s realistic. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/679 "2018-02-05T03:13:54Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Which has nothing to do with the model 3 discussion or what I said. You cited a Seeking Alpha article that cited 1,875 Model 3s as estimated by Inside EVs. What “outside source” are you referring to that calls Tesla’s numbers into question? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/680 "2018-02-05T03:24:42Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > You cited a Seeking Alpha article that cited 1,875 Model 3s as estimated by Inside EVs. What “outside source” are you referring to that calls Tesla’s numbers into question? I posted Musk’s production estimates, his revised estimates, and his revised revised estimates. the numbers Inside EV posted show little progress toward the repeatedly lowered numbers from Tesla. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/681 "2018-02-05T04:18:17Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I posted Musk’s production estimates, his revised estimates, and his revised revised estimates. > > the numbers Inside EV posted show little progress toward the repeatedly lowered numbers from Tesla. So Inside Ev is the “outside source” you were talking about? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=35)