# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/682 "2018-02-05T15:31:48Z")
[Here](https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/03/munro-compares-tesla-model-3-build-quality-kia-90s/) is a brief video review of a Model 3 conducted by a company that tears apart cars. The guy being interviewed is totally baffled at various points on a few things, such as how occupants can be expected to get out of the car in a major crash and the fit and finish issues that have been commented on for some time. As for panel gaps, the reviewer said at different points that he hasn’t seen issues like this since the 1970s, or that it reminds him of Kia from the 1990s. My impression is that this guy isn’t some rabid Tesla hater, but more like, “Wait… this is supposed to be a luxury car??” ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/683 "2018-02-05T18:58:04Z")
[Direct link to the video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCIo8e12sBM#action=share) Some of that is disturbing, and Munro certainly knows what he’s doing, but I think saying the panel gaps look like something from the 70s or 90s Kia is a bit hyperbolic. They look like 2000s (pre-bankruptcy) GM panel gaps. I can remember a cheap GM rental car where the trunk lid was on so crooked that I could get my fingers in to the second knuckle on one side. Anyway, Tesla certainly should do better. Maybe it’s the curse of Fremont. Other reviewers seem to universally like the outside door handle. Perhaps they are being ableist? I can see how opening the driver’s door is best with a functioning left hand, because a palm-up right hand seems awkward. I do have a sincere question and comment about the dangers of electric cars to first responders. This is not meant to be rhetorical, or in anyway deny that cars should be made as safe as possible to occupants and rescuers. Is part of the fear because electric dangers are new? Clearly there are lots of dangers from gasoline, but we’ve had a lot of time to both get used to and learn how to handle those dangers. [Here are a bunch of emergency response guides](http://www.boronextrication.com/emergency-response-guides/emergency-response-guides-erg-hybrid/) for various cars. It seems to me that part of a first responders’ jobs is to be familiar with these, and have the appropriate tools on hand. Browsing through the NIssan Leaf guide, if the high-voltage electrical system is damaged, and extraction is required, after cutting power they must wait 10 minutes for the system to fully de-energize before beginning extraction. So, acting quickly may be important, but it’s not advised. The Leaf guide says the high voltage system can be disabled by removing fuses and battery cables under the hood (opened from within the car), or by removing the service plug, which is also inside the car. The Model 3 only requires three minutes to for the HV system to deplete after disconnect. Anyway, I don’t know enough about those kinds of things to judge if both the Leaf and Model 3 are death traps, or if it’s just a matter of some cars have this procedure, other cars have that procedure, don’t use an angle grinder near leaking gasoline, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/684 "2018-02-05T20:56:12Z")
Panel gaps do seem to be hit or miss, but that’s not really a new thing for Tesla. Mostly they need to work on their consistency–from user reports, it seems that most cars are totally fine, but there’s the occasional one that’s terrible. The rest of his complaints seem like nonsense. The electrical mechanism for popping the frunk isn’t for emergency use, it’s for when the 12V battery is dead and you need to get in. Firemen are just going to rip off the hood like so much tinfoil if they need to get in. The Model 3 is actually better than the Model S in this regard, since there are two “first responder loops” and only one needs to be cut. Also, these loops are low voltage, so his apparent concerns about electrocution are unfounded. [You can read the guide here](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2017_Model_3_Emergency_Response_Guide_en.pdf). Getting into a situation where the lack of mechanical releases on the rear doors is a problem seems like a rare occurrence. You always have someone in the front, so they’d have to be totally incapacitated, and the electrical system would have to go down in a way that prevented the doors from working, and there would have to be no one else nearby, etc. It’s not impossible but it doesn’t seem likely enough to be a concern. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/685 "2018-02-05T21:35:05Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Getting into a situation where the lack of mechanical releases on the rear doors is a problem seems like a rare occurrence. You always have someone in the front, so they’d have to be totally incapacitated, and the electrical system would have to go down in a way that prevented the doors from working, and there would have to be no one else nearby, etc. It’s not impossible but it doesn’t seem likely enough to be a concern. I went to see how to open the rear doors on my car in the event of an accident, and it doesn’t even have rear doors! If the front seat occupants get squished so the seats won’t fold down, the back seat occupants will have to climb through the rear hatch. Except there’s no hatch release on the inside, except the electrical one on the driver’s door. I guess anybody in the rear seat is going to have to be familiar with the emergency manual crank operation to open the sunroof. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/686 "2018-02-05T23:38:40Z")
Good point. If the 3 is somehow a death trap for the rear seat passengers, then so is every coupe with a back seat. That said, it’s probably something Tesla should pay attention to. [A man died in a Corvette with electric locks a couple years ago](https://jalopnik.com/texas-man-and-his-dog-die-after-getting-trapped-in-a-co-1710670440). There was a manual release, but he couldn’t find it or wasn’t aware of it. At least in the 3, the manual release is in a much more intuitive location. Probably wouldn’t hurt to carry a window breaker in the car, just in general. For any car, there are some situations where the doors aren’t going to work. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/687 "2018-02-08T01:14:47Z")
Well this is disappointing; my estimated Model 3 date slipped from “Early 2018” to “Late 2018”. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/688 "2018-02-08T01:48:40Z")
Yup; mine got bumped from Dec-Feb to Mar-May. Not a huge shock, though. During the conference call, Elon reiterated their estimate of 2500/wk by the end of Q1 (i.e., end of March), from ~1k/wk at the beginning of the year. Seems like a reasonably good sign that they’re confident in that still. They’re still limited by their module production. It’s currently being done semi-manually, with automated stations but manual movement between them. The replacement line is currently in Germany (at Telsa Grohmann) and about to be shipped to CA. It supposedly works fine in Germany, but will take several weeks to disassemble-ship-reassemble. The next low-hanging fruit is their parts movement within Fremont; that will bring them from 2500/wk to 5k/wk. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/689 "2018-02-08T02:05:57Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Yup; mine got bumped from Dec-Feb to Mar-May. Not a huge shock, though. > > During the conference call, Elon reiterated their estimate of 2500/wk by the end of Q1 (i.e., end of March), from ~1k/wk at the beginning of the year. Seems like a reasonably good sign that they’re confident in that still. > > They’re still limited by their module production. It’s currently being done semi-manually, with automated stations but manual movement between them. The replacement line is currently in Germany (at Telsa Grohmann) and about to be shipped to CA. It supposedly works fine in Germany, but will take several weeks to disassemble-ship-reassemble. > > The next low-hanging fruit is their parts movement within Fremont; that will bring them from 2500/wk to 5k/wk. yeah, fuck, they’ve missed every estimate so far, but _this one_ they’ll make. Because you say so. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/690 "2018-02-08T02:37:29Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > They’re still limited by their module production. It’s currently being done semi-manually, with automated stations but manual movement between them. The replacement line is currently in Germany (at Telsa Grohmann) and about to be shipped to CA. It supposedly works fine in Germany, but will take several weeks to disassemble-ship-reassemble. I’d be April - June if I wanted the long range model. My guess is that as long as they can run at 100% capacity (whatever that happens to be) and only make the long range model, they’re going to keep doing that. $9000 for the bigger battery has to be lots of profit. The only upside to me, is that I am willing to spend a few thousand more for the all wheel drive version, and it might be ready, or at least priced, by the time they’re making the standard model. As for missing estimates, those kinds of things get more accurate the shorter the range of the prediction. I put more stock in them saying, “we’ll be doing X in a month” than, “we’ll be doing X in 1.5 years.” ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/691 "2018-02-08T02:53:19Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > yeah, fuck, they’ve missed every estimate so far, but _this one_ they’ll make. Because you say so. Whatever, man. I don’t claim to be an authority. However, here’s a possibly semi-relevant anecdote about my company. Internal deadlines are likewise always inching forward. You predict 3 months; when 3 months rolls around you predict another 4 weeks. 4 weeks later, it’s 10 days; then 1; then 1 again; then you’re done. Eventually someone decided that they could model this exponential deadline decay and build it into an algorithm. So they put together a spreadsheet that takes the existing estimates, the rate at which they decay, adjusts for historical trends, filters, and spits out a new projection. No one quite believes the projection but it does come closer than the original estimates. Although the estimate does swing around early on, as the model incorporates more data, eventually it starts converging. You can look at it in reverse, though–as the estimates start moving around less, you get more confident in their reliability. Well, this may not have anything to do with Tesla, but it is something I do in general when I don’t have additional data. Consistency usually counts for something. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/692 "2018-02-08T03:29:55Z")
His recent admonitions to other car makers made me laugh out loud: “Really, they are quite good at manufacturing, but they just don’t realise just how much potential there is for improvement,” It’s not the delay’s that are puzzling, it’s the inability to accurately predict the time frame to fix it. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/693 "2018-02-08T07:38:57Z")
What do people think, has Tesla put the $35,000 version of the Model 3 on indefinite hold? Why bother building the cheap version when production capacity can be filled selling a more expensive and profitable version? I know some of you think Musk’s farts stink, instead of smelling like the sweet rocket exhaust us true believers know them to be. Maybe he’s been lying from the beginning, maybe it’s just the inevitable hand of the meerkat. I’m about 50% expecting an announcement around August, on the back of the all wheel drive availability, that the standard version is delayed again, then an announcement around December that it has been canceled, but the new long range price is $47,000 instead of $49,000. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/694 "2018-02-08T09:27:17Z")
I’d be surprised if it were cancelled completely. A good chunk of the 450k orders must certainly be for the $35k model–they have to ship it eventually. I expect at least a few people to get them relatively early, but for those numbers to only really ramp up once the orders for the expensive model are cleared. It may also depend on how they are looking, profit-wise–they want to reach profitability this year and even if they were otherwise willing to ship the $35k model, they may hold off for some time to maximize profit in one particular quarter. Tesla did ship a few units of the 40 kWh Model S, even though it was unpopular, because they wanted to at least say they shipped an S for $50k. What they do may also depend on the competition. If there’s an updated Bolt or something that starts looking more competitive against a base Model 3, I could see them creating an intermediate model, and then slow-rolling the current base model. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/695 "2018-02-08T14:02:13Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > What do people think, has Tesla put the $35,000 version of the Model 3 on indefinite hold? Why bother building the cheap version when production capacity can be filled selling a more expensive and profitable version? I think there’s little chance of seeing the SR version until the federal tax credit is exhausted, or production demand is met. As long as the credit is dangled out there, it encourages people to spend more on the higher margin LR version, or else lose it altogether. Given their manufacturing issues, I bet Tesla would be losing money on every $35k SR sold today. Beyond a token amount for PR purposes, why on earth would they sell more? ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/696 "2018-02-08T15:11:56Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > His recent admonitions to other car makers made me laugh out loud: “Really, they are quite good at manufacturing, but they just don’t realise just how much potential there is for improvement,” I hope the Model 3 launch isn’t a demonstration of his “improvements.” ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/697 "2018-02-09T03:41:07Z")
Well February isn’t going to be much better, [According to Wired](https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-3-production-problems-elon-musk-feb-2018/) the machines designed to fix battery production aren’t going to arrive until March. Also, for the cars already on the road, service techs are saying part the high voltage power supply needs replacing, No explanation given. No recall at this time. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/698 "2018-02-10T00:27:27Z")
[Tesla issued a clarification to their conference call](http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1564590-18-1786&CIK=1318605): > [@](#): > > Tesla, Inc. is clarifying the following statement made by Elon Musk, Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer, during Tesla’s fourth quarter and full year 2017 financial results conference call held on February 7, 2018: > > _“[We] expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March. And then it’s already working in Germany so that’s going to be disassembled, brought out to the Gigafactory and reassembled and then go into operation at the Gigafactory. It’s not a question whether it works or not. It’s just a question of disassembly, transport and reassembly. So we expect to alleviate that constraint. With alleviating that constraint, that’s what gets us to the roughly 2,000 to 2,500 unit per week production rate.”_ > > The “2,000 to 2,500” units per week cited in this comment refers solely to the capacity of the additional automated battery module manufacturing equipment that is currently located in Germany, and not to Tesla’s total Model 3 production run rate or to the capacity of the automated battery module equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1. Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call. > > As stated in Tesla’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Update Letter: > _“We continue to target weekly Model 3 production rates of 2,500 by the end of Q1 and 5,000 by the end of Q2. It is important to note that while these are the levels we are focused on hitting and we have plans in place to achieve them, our prior experience on the Model 3 ramp has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time. What we can say with confidence is that we are taking many actions to systematically address bottlenecks and add capacity in places like the battery module line where we have experienced constraints, and these actions should result in our production rate significantly increasing during the rest of Q1 and through Q2.”_ > > This information is intended to be furnished under 7.01 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. So, it appears that the German equipment is for their 5k/wk Q2 target, not the 2500/wk Q1 target. They plan on reaching 2500 with the current semi-automated lines. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/699 "2018-02-10T21:50:12Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > [Tesla issued a clarification to their conference call](http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1564590-18-1786&CIK=1318605): > So, it appears that the German equipment is for their 5k/wk Q2 target, not the 2500/wk Q1 target. They plan on reaching 2500 with the current semi-automated lines. Something doesn’t sound right. If the German equipment only fixes battery production for 5000 batteries/wk then why aren’t they making 2500 units at the car factory? Or put another way, why wouldn’t the addition of 5000 batteries/wk not immediately increase production to that level. They’ve had many many months to work on this. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/700 "2018-02-10T22:20:32Z")
There are effectively three lines. There’s the German one that can produce 2k-2.5k cars but isn’t ready yet. There is the original automated line which produces nothing. And there’s the current semi-automated line which is currently producing 1k but they anticipate scaling to 2.5k. They didn’t elaborate on what their scaling limits are, but I would think it’s the usual stuff–training new staff, generally improving efficiency, etc. I suspect the semi-automated line is what they had from the beginning, intending it to be a short time thing to get the first batch of cars out the door. When they realized the initial automation wasn’t going to work at all, they scaled that up further. But it was never really intended to get to those rates, so it’s gone more slowly (takes longer to train humans than robots). The German automation must have been started early but obviously is only just now nearly ready. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/701 "2018-02-11T00:14:34Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > There are effectively three lines. There’s the German one that can produce 2k-2.5k cars but isn’t ready yet. There is the original automated line which produces nothing. And there’s the current semi-automated line which is currently producing 1k but they anticipate scaling to 2.5k. They didn’t elaborate on what their scaling limits are, but I would think it’s the usual stuff–training new staff, generally improving efficiency, etc. I’m confused. from your cite the German assembly line is destined for the gigafactory which only builds batteries. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=36)