# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 64
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1262 "2018-05-30T03:41:41Z")
And in case it still isn’t obvious–does anyone really think that no executive at Chrysler has said _Fuck! This stupid cruise control recall is going to cost us like a billion dollars and months of bad press, while fuckin’ Tesla pushed out an update in a week for like a grand in cell phone fees. Why can’t we do that?_ Of course they’re talking about this, but they’re years behind in their ability to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1263 "2018-05-30T06:10:47Z")
And in the wholesome Tesla news department: My parents had a big Memorial Day party, at which we had a mini “car show”. I brought my Model 3 of course. Lots of people were interested, but the _most_ interested was a ~10 year old kid who somehow knew everything about Tesla but hadn’t actually been inside one! Of course I gave him the full tour, put him in the driver’s seat and let him play with all the controls. Super-excited. Found out later that he wanted to be an automotive engineer. I hope I gave him a little further nudge in that direction–though I doubt he needed it! Teslas are a dime-a-dozen in the Bay Area but even a short drive off they’re a lot less common. And to the adults, I hope I dispelled a few myths about them. There’s still lots of misinformation out there about really basic stuff, like range and the cost of charging. The more EVs are out there, the better picture people will have of them. Not just Tesla, of course, but all EVs. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1264 "2018-05-30T17:34:34Z")
There we go: [Tesla Model 3 Gets CR Recommendation After Braking Update](https://www.consumerreports.org/cars-tesla-model-3-gets-cr-recommendation-after-braking-update/) > [@](#): > > “I’ve been at CR for 19 years and tested more than 1,000 cars,” says Jake Fisher, director of auto testing at Consumer Reports, “and I’ve never seen a car that could improve its track performance with an over-the-air update.” ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1265 "2018-05-31T12:49:45Z")
I’ve decided to put a deposit down for a Model 3. My lease expires next summer, so I figure that it’s better to get in line now for a base model, and decide later if I want to go with the Model 3, or choose another option in a little over a year. My guess is that it will be Model 3 vs Bolt, and I’m not sure which one I’d choose. I’m curious about the other cars that may be coming soon – like the Kona and 2019 upgraded Leaf, and maybe even the Niro – but I’m not quite as sold on those yet. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1266 "2018-05-31T12:59:29Z")
It seems like they’ve already made several changes to the vehicle from some of the earlier VINs to address feedback- they’ve lowered the tire pressure, modified the spring and dampener, modified the front seats, changed the rear seats to provide more thigh support (I’ve seen reports of an increased height of~2"), and changed the front glass sealing for wind noise. I’m happy that all of these seem to be present on my car, but yeah, kinda sucks for the early adopters/beta testers. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1267 "2018-05-31T13:25:40Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I’ve decided to put a deposit down for a Model 3. Nice! One of us. One of us. If you need a referral code for an X or S, let me know 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1268 "2018-05-31T21:47:07Z")
Great! Just send me your address and I’ll mail the complimentary Cult of Elon indoctrination booklet, the desktop shrine, and reality distortion sunglasses. We’ll get you on board in no time! > [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > It seems like they’ve already made several changes to the vehicle from some of the earlier VINs to address feedback I think the tire pressure thing wasn’t a production change; just a suggestion that one can trade off noise/ride with efficiency. Reducing pressure from 45 to 39 is safe and gives a better ride at the expense of a tiny amount of range. I know I have the older front seats–not sure about the rear yet. I know I have the new suspension, though, as they made that change pretty early on. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1269 "2018-05-31T22:08:21Z")
Ze Germans did [a teardown](https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wiwo.de%2Ftechnologie%2Fmobilitaet%2Felektroauto-zerlegt-tesla-model-3-kann-gewinn-abwerfen%2F22625806.html) of a Model 3 LR and had some interesting findings: - Materials cost of ~$18k, production cost of ~$10k (assuming 10k/wk rate). Seems promising for the $35k model since it’ll save a few thousand in materials (at $25k, that’s a 28% gross margin). - Confirmation that Tesla has significantly reduced the cobalt content of their cells (2.8% in cathodes compared to competitor’s 8%). A Redditor with access to the full article had some [additional notes](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8nhodw/model_3_teardown_in_germany_finds_that_teslas/dzvnkob/): > [@](#): > > Material and production cost estimates of $18k and $10k are based on a 10,000 cars/week run rate. > > The German premium manufacturer, who ordered this tear down, would not be able to produce a similar EV right now, even with low cost suppliers from eastern Europe. > > Interior is nice to the touch where it matters, ceiling (likely the discontinued Alcantara) and doors. Parts near the feet are cheap plastic. > > Lower production and storage costs due to only a few upgrade options. Also the “iPad” helps to reduce complexity. > > Interior is completely symmetric, good for RHD production efficiency. > > The drivetrain exceeds Elons promises regarding maximum speed, torque and acceleration. It is thought trough, compact, well integrated and relatively light weight. Not easy for competitors to build something similar. > > Good material mix in the chassis. > > There are only 4 kinds of screws in the under body, a car from a German competitor would have 40 different ones. Again, reduced complexity. Many parts of the aero are designed so robots can grab them easily. > > Batterypack is hard to remove. > > Corrosion prevention is not on premium level, but not far off. > > Crash safety is only adequate, not on premium level. > > Only 2.8% Cobalt in the battery cells, even the most up to date cells from competitors have double the amount. > > Their analysis of component costs: > 40% Battery > 14% Electronics > 11% Suspension > 11% Interior > 10% High voltage motor > 8% Exterior > 7% Chassis All in all, it sounds very good for Tesla if they can continue ramping up production. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2018, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1270 "2018-06-01T14:59:40Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I think the tire pressure thing wasn’t a production change; just a suggestion that one can trade off noise/ride with efficiency. Reducing pressure from 45 to 39 is safe and gives a better ride at the expense of a tiny amount of range. > > I know I have the older front seats–not sure about the rear yet. I know I have the new suspension, though, as they made that change pretty early on. My doorjamb says 42psi - I assumed this had been changed from 45psi. I’ve seen some indications that they’ve changed both the springs and the dampers- the springs were early-on, but idk. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2018, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1271 "2018-06-01T15:34:29Z")
> [@](#): > > Many parts of the aero are designed so robots can grab them easily. What’s an aero? > [@](#): > > Only 2.8% Cobalt in the battery cells, even the most up to date cells from competitors have double the amount. What effect, other than cost savings on a $40/lb material, does reducing the cobalt have? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2018, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1272 "2018-06-01T15:55:04Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > What’s an aero? > > What effect, other than cost savings on a $40/lb material, does reducing the cobalt have? [This.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2018/03/07/an-electric-car-boom-excite-australias-mining-tycoons-but-there-may-be-a-cobalt-problem/#398c7f763b42) Cobalt supply may be the rate limiting step if EVs really take off. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2018, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1273 "2018-06-01T17:45:12Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > What effect, other than cost savings on a $40/lb material, does reducing the cobalt have? Are you kidding? It costs a fortune to buy up all those Chevies, grind them into a paste, and put them into your batteries! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2018, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1274 "2018-06-01T20:44:41Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > What’s an aero? Not sure. Might be referring to body panels. > [@DesertDog](#): > > What effect, other than cost savings on a $40/lb material, does reducing the cobalt have? **DSeid** ’s article was reasonable. But in summary, it’s protection against an expected future spike in price due to demand. Cobalt has problems with regard to mining. Most of it comes from the Congo. Purchasers (Tesla, etc.) are under pressure to only purchase from “ethical” sources–that is, ones with a documented supply chain showing that it came from sources that don’t employ children, have reasonable safety standards, etc. Unfortunately, there are still a number of “artisanal” mines with no regulatory oversight. All of this constrains the supply. There’s the prospect of opening new mines in Canada and elsewhere, but it’s slow going. All current high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries use cobalt. It may be that there are chemistries which don’t need it–Tesla thinks that’s a possibility. But even if not, reducing cobalt use is a big competitive advantage. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2018, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1275 "2018-06-04T21:12:39Z")
> [@](#): > > Tesla raked in hundreds of thousands of pre-orders for its Model 3 after it unveiled the vehicle in 2016, but a report from analytics firm Second Measure shows that a good chunk of US pre-orders have since been refunded. As of April, the company’s analysis shows that 23 percent of those who placed a pre-order in the US have had their $1,000 deposit refunded. A Tesla spokesperson told Recode that Second Measure’s findings didn’t match the automaker’s own numbers, but declined to say by how much they were off. > **[Tesla has reportedly refunded nearly a quarter of US Model 3 pre-orders](https://www.engadget.com/2018-06-04-tesla-refunded-a-quarter-of-us-model-3-preorders.html)** > > Tesla raked in hundreds of thousands of pre-orders for its Model 3 after it unveiled the vehicle in 2016, but a report from analytics firm Second Measure shows that a good chunk of US pre-orders have since been refunded. As of April, the company's... People don’t want to wait or bad reviews? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2018, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1276 "2018-06-05T02:00:19Z")
23% doesn’t seem that bad, all things considered. If Tesla can maintain even a 50% conversion rate I think they’ll be doing well. Note that they haven’t stopped taking new reservations. One thing you can read directly from the chart: not a small number of lost reservations are from upconversions to Model S and X. The green line was already significant by July 2017, and those must have been entirely S/X. Probably a fair number are “reserved two, cancelled one” from people that thought they might have had some small chance at buying two, but decided against it. A refundable $1000 isn’t going to break the bank for most customers. I’ll bet they can figure that out from their data. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2018, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1277 "2018-06-05T04:11:41Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > [Tesla has reportedly refunded nearly a quarter of US Model 3 pre-orders](https://www.engadget.com/2018/06/04/tesla-refunded-a-quarter-of-us-model-3-preorders/) > > People don’t want to wait or bad reviews? I’d cancel mine if there was something else out there I wanted. I’m looking for an all electric based on a sports sedan not an economy car. If all I cared about was livable electric transportation for $30-40k, I’d have cancelled for a Bolt 4 months ago. If all I cared about was a sports sedan I’d have canceled for a used S4 (or whatever). My guess is that the non S/X conversions are canceling after three delays of the base model. I’m nursing along a 135k VW, but if I had a lease that was expiring I’d be forced to cancel. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2018, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1278 "2018-06-05T20:50:42Z")
This story cracks me up: > **[Electric Vehicle News and Analysis | InsideEVs](https://insideevs.com/news/)** > > Read the latest EV news from the U.S. and around the globe including new model reveals, business news, industry insights, latest technology, and more. I’m waiting for the fanbois to post about how they will never buy a car or EV that doesn’t have their own dedicated nationwide network of squeegees! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2018, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1279 "2018-06-05T23:18:46Z")
I wonder where you’re finding all these people that would only accept Superchargers and nothing else. I lurk on several Tesla forums and I don’t really see these people. There are a few whose needs essentially require it, of course–they do a lot of long distance driving for their job, for instance–but most seem to have a realistic view. I don’t think I’ve ever said Supercharging was an absolute requirement for me, though it was certainly a tick in Tesla’s favor. Really it’s the non-enthusiasts (Tesla “haters” or otherwise) that seem to have the least realistic view regarding fast charging. As has come up several times in this thread, charging on the road just isn’t frequent enough for most people that fast charging is more than a nice-to-have feature. I only used gas station squeegees when I was truly desperate. Unless the windshield is truly filthy, it’s almost certain to make it less clean. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2018, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1280 "2018-06-06T06:26:07Z")
Tesla shareholder meeting today. Some notes [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8ovost/2018_annual_shareholder_meeting_notes/). They say all Model 3 lines are demonstrating 500 car/day output. That’s not the same as a sustained 3,500/wk, but it sounds pretty good. They claim they’re still on track for 5,000/wk at the end of the month. They’re the best-selling midsize premium sedan in the US, ahead of Mercedes C-class, Audi A4, BMW 3-series, and Lexus IS. ~30% market share in May. Still expecting positive cash flow in Q3/Q4. They were kinda specific–I wonder if this means they plan on having a couple of profitable quarters, and then go CapEx heavy again when they start investing in Model Y. Would be a nice “hey, we can make money” demo if they can pull it off, even if it’s only temporary. Musk stays as chairman of the board. Some moron with 12 shares managed to bring it to a vote (i.e., does Tesla kick Musk and a few others off the board), and failed miserably. ---
**Author:** ![polar\_bear](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ec9cab/32.png) [@polar\_bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/polar_bear)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2018, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1281 "2018-06-06T17:21:15Z")
You know, in some places it is unheard of for a CEO to also be chairman of the board. Just saying. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=63) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=65)