# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 66
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1302 "2018-06-12T01:12:33Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I never said it was a criticism. Nor would I have a problem if it was! I _like_ to see reasonable, constructive criticism of Tesla. There’s certainly plenty of material (as with any manufacturer). > > The problem is that so far, it’s manifested as strawmanning. It conveys no information and isn’t constructive. > > If the comments actually added something, like “We had a seat installation robot like that at X; it was a disaster because Y kept happening and halting the line. We went back to a manual install with a lift assist and got 2x the productivity.”; well, that would be interesting information. Even more interesting would be to get past the superficial similarities and turn a sharp eye to the differences, no matter how small, or whether they cast Tesla in a positive or negative light. Yes, Tesla’s factory is a sea of robots with recognizable brand names. But surely there is quite a lot more going on. I think there’s been some crazy criticism in this thread and a lot of fair criticism. However, your example of a fair criticism is an impossible hurdle to meet. Tesla is a very tight-lipped company. There’s been a ton of reasonable questions asked of them that are just blown off - wasn’t it a question about profitability that Elon dismissed on the investor phone call as “boring” and ignored? That’s a major, major issue, not nearly as trivial as what robot does what job. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1303 "2018-06-12T04:29:55Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > However, your example of a fair criticism is an impossible hurdle to meet. That was just one example. All I was asking to avoid is zero-information snark. I’ve no problem at all with general critique. Nor do I have a problem with snark if it leads into useful conversation. As for the conference call, Elon blew off two questions. One was one about CapEx, which they already talked about quite a lot, and which was already mentioned in the investor letter. The caller would have had his answer had he done his homework. The other was about reservations. Again, the caller would have more or less had his answer had he done his homework. Tesla reported their Q1 sales and the reservation counts have been public information for a while. Tesla isn’t obligated to go into much more detail and it probably isn’t in their interest to do so. Profitability wasn’t blown off, but even at that all the necessary information was in the letter: they expect to be GAAP profitable in Q3 and Q4. That is a clear, specific prediction that will either happen or not. It’s probably worth noting that they did _not_ make any claims of profitability past that point–probably because they expect Model Y expenses to start ramping up at that point. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1304 "2018-06-12T10:12:56Z")
It doesn’t effing matter. he could have done just what you did and told them where it was in less than a sentence. instead he- the CEO and president of a publicly-held corporation- decided to act like an autistic teenager. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1305 "2018-06-12T11:26:41Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > That was just one example. All I was asking to avoid is zero-information snark. I’ve no problem at all with general critique. Nor do I have a problem with snark if it leads into useful conversation. I think there’s been a fair amount of informed comments about the experiences of other automakers, or some comments on Tesla’s claim that Autopilot is already better than most drivers, and so on. If we’re talking about quality of debate, I believe most of those points are responded to by little other than “Nuh-uh!” ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1306 "2018-06-12T12:42:54Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > It’s a strawman, though. I never claimed it’s anything but some cool pictures of robots. It’s not a strawman. I’m not saying Tesla sucks because of those pictures. I took pains to say, those are pretty cool. It’s not taking anything away from Tesla’s lustre to point out that, hey, it’s also really cool when everyone else does that same kinds of things. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1307 "2018-06-12T22:50:34Z")
[Tesla is firing 9% of its employees](http://whtc.com/news/articles/2018/jun/12/tesla-to-cut-9-percent-of-jobs-bloomberg/) (mostly in management). That should improve cash flow. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1308 "2018-06-13T08:19:00Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > [Tesla is firing 9% of its employees](http://whtc.com/news/articles/2018/jun/12/tesla-to-cut-9-percent-of-jobs-bloomberg/) (mostly in management). That should improve cash flow. Yeah. It’s a painful move, but does show they’re serious about being profitable. No production employees were fired, according to the [leaked email](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1006597562156003328). There were probably a lot of low-productivity workers from the SolarCity acquisition, so hopefully the cuts won’t eat too much into R&D, etc. It seems pretty certain that this was in the works before the promise of Q3/Q4 profitability. I wasn’t quite sure how they could have made it without some kind of cut of this nature. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1309 "2018-06-13T08:24:01Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > If we’re talking about quality of debate, I believe most of those points are responded to by little other than “Nuh-uh!” Hmm. I thought we actually had a productive conversation about the nature of statistics as it applies to low-frequency events. I acknowledged some of your points and argued against others. I don’t believe I responded to any of your points with “nuh-uh”-level snark. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 8:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1310 "2018-06-13T08:32:36Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > It’s not a strawman. I’m not saying Tesla sucks because of those pictures. I took pains to say, those are pretty cool. It’s not taking anything away from Tesla’s lustre to point out that, hey, it’s also really cool when everyone else does that same kinds of things. Sure. But when there’s not a whole lot of content beyond saying that there’s nothing new, it looks a _little_ like minor threadshitting given that this is a Tesla thread. Nevertheless, I will keep in mind that it is hard to judge motives over the internet and that it’s generally best to use the principle of charity, and hope others will do the same. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1311 "2018-06-19T10:57:24Z")
another reason why they are behind schedule , alleged sabotage [CEO Musk emails staff alleging employee 'sabotage' | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tesla-ceo/ceo-musk-emails-staff-alleging-employee-sabotage-idUSKBN1JE2Y4) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1312 "2018-06-19T12:52:18Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > another reason why they are behind schedule , alleged sabotage > > [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tesla-ceo/ceo-musk-emails-staff-alleging-employee-sabotage-idUSKBN1JE2Y4](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tesla-ceo/ceo-musk-emails-staff-alleging-employee-sabotage-idUSKBN1JE2Y4) That may be, but I wouldn’t take it to the bank quite yet, since Elon’s enterprises have a record of being open to conspiracy theories: > **[Does SpaceX Really Think Someone Sniped Its Rocket?](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a23183/spacex-sniped-rocket/)** > > SpaceX reportedly requested access to the rooftop of a United Launch Alliance building where they spotted "an odd shadow, then a white spot." ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1313 "2018-06-19T17:45:49Z")
It’s probably best to just read the [leaked email](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/elon-musk-email-employee-conducted-extensive-and-damaging-sabotage.html). I think it’s pretty clear that some sabotage occurred, and most likely it was just the one employee acting alone. The letter more or less says this but does bring up the possibility of industrial sabotage. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1314 "2018-06-19T18:18:05Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > It’s probably best to just read the [leaked email](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/elon-musk-email-employee-conducted-extensive-and-damaging-sabotage.html). > > I think it’s pretty clear that some sabotage occurred, and most likely it was just the one employee acting alone. The letter more or less says this but does bring up the possibility of industrial sabotage. I’m saying that just because Elon throws out accusations of sabotage and possible links to Big Oil, doesn’t mean that we have to believe him. Quoting him talk about sabotage and whatnot isn’t evidence that he is on to something. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1315 "2018-06-19T20:31:20Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > accusations of sabotage and possible links to Big Oil, doesn’t mean that we have to believe him Sure, but those two things are at wildly different ends of the probability spectrum. Minor sabotage happens all the time. It has happened where I work, and in fact happened at NUMMI previously–such as throwing garbage behind body panels to make the cars rattle. I don’t think there’s much reason to doubt that some kind of intentional damage occurred. The guy allegedly admitted it. On the other hand, actual industrial sabotage by Big Oil or whomever is far less likely and in any case requires more evidence. The letter just says that they’re looking into it. It also says that usually these things really are just pissed off individuals. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1316 "2018-06-19T23:50:58Z")
In other Model 3 news, Tesla has set up a third GA line [in a tent](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06/elon-musk-lauds-new-temporary-assembly-tent-as-factory-2-0-awaits/). Calling it a “tent” is a bit misleading–this is effectively a permanent structure, rated for decades of use in all kinds of weather conditions (not that it needs it–Fremont has no weather to speak of, and only earthquake resistance [which is likely pretty good] is a concern in this department). Tesla has been talking about a third GA line for a while, and in fact the area occupied by the tent has been planned for expansion [for about two years](https://electrek.co/2016/10/07/tesla-master-plan-double-size-of-fremont-factory-to-support-model-3-plans/). The idea of using a tent is probably new and driven by schedule, but it seems pretty reasonable. I’m actually kinda surprised that this isn’t more common. Surely, tents are more easily configurable than a typical building. They wouldn’t work for all applications, like if you need overhead cranes, but for GA work they sound like an excellent alternative to a normal building. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1317 "2018-06-28T05:04:28Z")
Well, I think I’m going to have to order now. I’m going to sleep on it, just to see if I change my mind by the morning. Here is the situation: LR-Premium and Dual motor LR-Premium are estimated to deliver in 3-5 months. Those should still get me the full $7500 tax rebate. SR is estimated to deliver in 6-9 months. I don’t believe this, as it was 6 months 6 months ago, and 1 year 1 year ago. I think by the time they ship there will be no federal rebate, or at the most, the $1875 rebate. I’m going to assume no rebate. With the tax credit plus extra sales tax, I can get LR and Premium for about $7600 more than the SR. If I have to wait a year (or even 6-9 months) there will be at least $2500 in maintenance on my current car. $5100 for LR and Premium is worth it in my estimation. Putting it over the top is the news that orders placed after July 1 will have to pay $100 for high speed internet access, including streaming and live traffic. I don’t think that is a bad price, but why pay if I can avoid it. So, it looks like $62,727 for a dual motor, long range, premium, enhanced auto pilot, in basic black with the cheap wheels, and sales tax. Wow, that is a lot seeing it written out. It comes down to $50,227 after state and federal tax credits. I guess that’s about the same as a similarly equipped A5, and it doesn’t need premium unleaded. Still expensive for a $35,000 car. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1318 "2018-06-28T19:42:20Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > Well, I think I’m going to have to order now. I’m going to sleep on it, just to see if I change my mind by the morning. Here is the situation: > > LR-Premium and Dual motor LR-Premium are estimated to deliver in 3-5 months. Those should still get me the full $7500 tax rebate. > > SR is estimated to deliver in 6-9 months. I don’t believe this, as it was 6 months 6 months ago, and 1 year 1 year ago. I think by the time they ship there will be no federal rebate, or at the most, the $1875 rebate. I’m going to assume no rebate. > > With the tax credit plus extra sales tax, I can get LR and Premium for about $7600 more than the SR. If I have to wait a year (or even 6-9 months) there will be at least $2500 in maintenance on my current car. $5100 for LR and Premium is worth it in my estimation. > > Putting it over the top is the news that orders placed after July 1 will have to pay $100 for high speed internet access, including streaming and live traffic. I don’t think that is a bad price, but why pay if I can avoid it. > > So, it looks like $62,727 for a dual motor, long range, premium, enhanced auto pilot, in basic black with the cheap wheels, and sales tax. Wow, that is a lot seeing it written out. It comes down to $50,227 after state and federal tax credits. I guess that’s about the same as a similarly equipped A5, and it doesn’t need premium unleaded. Still expensive for a $35,000 car. I think the floodgates are open, and it’s no coincidence that it’s late June. I am guessing that all reservation holders have been invited to order; a Reddit poster claimed he reserved yesterday (and ordered today). The late June invitations for all (along with the Premium Connectivity incentive you mention that not-coincidentally expires July 1) lead me to believe that Tesla will make the 200k announcement in early July, putting the full rebate date at 12/31. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1319 "2018-06-28T20:40:19Z")
I got my reservation invitation today too. This step locks in your deposit (an extra $2500) but my understanding is that the tax incentive is based on the delivery date not order date. Is this just another revenue generating ploy or are they trying to see how many people REALLY want one? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1320 "2018-06-28T22:08:04Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Is this just another revenue generating ploy or are they trying to see how many people REALLY want one? A little from column A, a little from column B. They made no secret of wanting to make a profit in Q3 and Q4, and aren’t too embarrassed to count deposits as revenue. At the same time, they clearly are ramping up production to quite high rates, and with the passing of the 200k limit there’s no reason for them to hold back on US orders. I continue to enjoy mine greatly and haven’t had any issues. I really never want to go back to an ICE. There’s no other car on the road I’d trade it for (ignoring gotcha answers like “trade it for a rare Ferrari and sell it”). Well, I suppose I’d trade it for a Model 3 Performance edition :). It’s just an incredibly _pleasant_ car to drive. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1321 "2018-06-28T22:12:35Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > A little from column A, a little from column B. They made no secret of wanting to make a profit in Q3 and Q4, and aren’t too embarrassed to count deposits as revenue. At the same time, they clearly are ramping up production to quite high rates, and with the passing of the 200k limit there’s no reason for them to hold back on US orders. > > I continue to enjoy mine greatly and haven’t had any issues. I really never want to go back to an ICE. There’s no other car on the road I’d trade it for (ignoring gotcha answers like “trade it for a rare Ferrari and sell it”). Well, I suppose I’d trade it for a Model 3 Performance edition :). It’s just an incredibly _pleasant_ car to drive. You wouldn’t trade it for a Model S P100D? 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=65) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=67)