# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 70
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1382 "2018-07-07T03:34:29Z")
> [@The\_Niply\_Elder](#): > > Thank you for contributing to the thread. While certainly super impressive feat, this is apples and oranges. The 8 week timeframe applies to only the teardown and installation of new tooling. That tooling that was installed was obviously designed and manufactured years in advance, the new aluminum stamping processes tested and trialed in small batches offsite years in advance also and the entire line was warehoused in anticipation for the switchover. > > The cases I pointed earlier are more analogous to the Model 3 situation: > -New chassis > -New drivetrain > -New processes > -New people > > The case of the F-150 is not applicable because there are multiple factories producing it, new models have largely unchanged processes, drivetrains are shared between multiple models, etc. and what makes you think anything you said here is true? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Niply\_Elder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8e8cbc/32.png) [@The\_Niply\_Elder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Niply_Elder)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1383 "2018-07-07T03:48:04Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > and what makes you think anything you said here is true? So it turns out that I’m also a trained professional engineer, which is why I know stuff like this. Frankly if you have supporting data that elucidates auto manufacturing processes and timelines, then by all means post it, but to be honest your attitude that you’re the only one possessor of automobile knowledge is reaching ridiculous levels. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1384 "2018-07-07T04:14:56Z")
> [@](#): > > but to be honest your attitude that you’re the only one possessor of automobile knowledge is reaching ridiculous levels. I’ve never said such, that is your own fabrication. and it’s a bit humorous that you think being a “trained professional engineer” is some way to “no yuo” me. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Niply\_Elder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8e8cbc/32.png) [@The\_Niply\_Elder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Niply_Elder)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1385 "2018-07-07T04:29:12Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > and what makes you think anything you said here is true? > [@jz78817](#): > > I’ve never said such, that is your own fabrication. and it’s a bit humorous that you think being a “trained professional engineer” is some way to “no yuo” me. Whatever man. I’m interested in having an objective comparison between Tesla Model 3 production ramp-up and other new-model production ramp-up statistics. If you want to have a peer-to-peer conversation about this, feel free to join at your earliest. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1386 "2018-07-07T04:50:20Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > on the other hand, try [gutting and completely retooling a plant in 8 weeks, then starting volume production three weeks later.](https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/trucks/a15539/rebuilding-the-rouge-truck-factory/) and no “manufacturing hell” required. Your link says it took four years. You don’t get to say it took eleven weeks just because there were only eleven weeks of downtime. Tesla built their GA4 line in a matter of weeks, too (it’s easy to verify this with satellite imagery). It’s not like the various F150 plant conversions were completely glitch-free. There’s [this guy](http://www.industryweek.com/workforce/making-trucks-run-time-visit-ford-s-f-150-launch-manager): > [@](#): > > In 2015, the Dearborn plant was completely upgraded with a new layout and machinery to accommodate the new aluminum-bodied F-150. During the launch, Pijor’s team had a devil of a time calibrating two new features on the vehicle: the 360-degree camera and adaptive cruise control. “We struggled like crazy,” he says. “We were having failures. We had some clues about what was wrong, and we’d think we’d fix it and then we didn’t,” says Pijor. > … > “What the hell’s different on the day shift?” Pijor asked himself. “We went around and around. It took us three months to figure out.” Then one of the engineers looked up, and the clouds parted. “Come to find out, that skylight up there, on sunny days in Michigan, and there are very few, the sun could shine on the laser that set up the calibration, and it would make a failure,” says Pijor. The skylight was covered, and the problem solved. And then in the Kansas City plant, there were [various problems](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2016/04/29/ford/83692246/): > [@](#): > > Ford Motor Co., which posted record quarterly earnings Thursday, said it’s idling its F-150 pickup factory near Kansas City for a week next month to fix a problem that’s preventing the plant from reaching production targets. > … > Ford needs to adjust the Missouri factory’s body shop and paint operations, which have prevented the plant from achieving its daily production targets for the pickup, Hinrichs said. So the company pulled ahead a down week that had been scheduled for the fall to fix those problems, he said. Obviously, no complex operation is perfect and the aluminum switchover was a very impressive feat in spite of those issues. Let’s just not pretend that it’s only Tesla that experiences some degree of manufacturing hell. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1387 "2018-07-07T11:33:10Z")
How long it takes to set up a production line is one issue; the fact that Tesla mislead (either intentionally or unintentionally) its customers and investors about its ability to produce the Model 3 is another. That all these people were told one thing, and Tesla is incapable of delivering, is a big deal. To put it another way, if you invest in my real estate business, or you put down a deposit for my new development, on the basis that I will have x units available for move-in in just three months, and it ends up taking eight; then investors and customers have a valid complaint - even if eight months isn’t a long time to build a house. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1388 "2018-07-07T11:36:04Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Obviously, no complex operation is perfect and the aluminum switchover was a very impressive feat in spite of those issues. Let’s just not pretend that it’s only Tesla that experiences some degree of manufacturing hell. Yeah, Tesla would cream it’s pants if it ever experienced this version of the completely fabricated phenomenon of “manufacturing hell.” “Ford had built up an inventory of 288,000 F-Series trucks as of April 1, according to Automotive News Data Center. That represents a 105-day supply in an industry where a 60-day supply is considered ideal.” ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1389 "2018-07-07T17:57:06Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > “Ford had built up an inventory of 288,000 F-Series trucks as of April 1, according to Automotive News Data Center. That represents a 105-day supply in an industry where a 60-day supply is considered ideal.” What a wonderful idea! All Tesla had to do was build up a huge inventory of Model 3s before building their Model 3 lines and everything would have been smooth sailing! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1390 "2018-07-07T19:57:49Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > But yeah, once the car is put in “D” and the music is on, i tend to forget all about the little stuff that bugs me. After getting used to the Model 3 for a few weeks and then going back to my wife’s car ('15 Honda CRV), I just get annoyed at the sluggishness, vibration, shuddering, hesitation, and transmission shifts. All that stuff never bothered me before, but yikes, it’s front and center now. Yup. I test drove a Model S a few years ago and it took a few days for the feeling to wear off. Now I’m not sure it ever well. The 3 has a few quirks like anything, but mostly when you’re driving everything gets out of the way. It’s just a very pure experience. Lots of wide open glass, hardly anything in your field of view, no vibration or judders, etc. Not sure if you ever mentioned it–what’s your charging situation like? I’m still on 120v, actually. And even then only plug in 2-3 times a week. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1391 "2018-07-07T20:35:19Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > What a wonderful idea! All Tesla had to do was build up a huge inventory of Model 3s before building their Model 3 lines and everything would have been smooth sailing! I didn’t choose the cars being compared. On a different note, I was reading some EV news sites today and there’s basically a Musk-fanboy jihad against anyone with a sell rating on Tesla stock. One of the arguments is that even Amazon was unprofitable, therefore the FUDsters are wrong. I looked it up. Tesla’s most recent loss was nearly twice Amazon’s largest, while Amazon’s revenue was nearly seven times greater. I think at some point we have to start evaluating tech stocks on the merits of the business, not the cool factor of the products. (Yes, looking at you too, Facebook.) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1392 "2018-07-07T21:15:23Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > On a different note, I was reading some EV news sites today and there’s basically a Musk-fanboy jihad against anyone with a sell rating on Tesla stock. That’s dumb, but the shorts are pretty fuckin’ dumb, too. If you really want whack-a-doodle Tesla hate, see [Mark B. Spiegel](https://twitter.com/markbspiegel). There are nutsos all over the place. I would recommend ignoring them. > [@Ravenman](#): > > I think at some point we have to start evaluating tech stocks on the merits of the business, not the cool factor of the products. Sure, that would be great. I’ll bring up again the [teardown](https://www.wiwo.de/technologie/mobilitaet/elektroauto-zerlegt-tesla-model-3-kann-gewinn-abwerfen/22625806.html) that a German company did of the Model 3. Their claim is that the 3 has a cost (materials+production) of around $28k for the LR model. That’s at a 10k/wk production rate and, presumably, something resembling modern automaker efficiency. But I think we’ll have to wait until Q3 to see how close Tesla got to that. Even if they aren’t yet hitting their targets, Tesla is still crushing the competition. [They sold 6k (in the US) in each of May and Jun](https://insideevs.com/june-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/). One might expect June to be much higher–this may be because of the 200k rebate limit and them either shipping to Canada or withholding shipments. In any case, 6k is over 4x as much as their next-nearest non-Tesla alternative. The Bolt doesn’t appear to be selling well at all, though sales to South Korea are up and that may explain the US shortfall. Upcoming competition? Well, there’s the Jaguar I-Pace, which by all accounts is a decent vehicle. But they plan on producing \<20k in 2019 so it doesn’t look like a real near-term competitor. Jaguar took the approach of outsourcing to Magna Steyr. This made production easy but I don’t get the impression that they could increase these numbers significantly even if they wanted to. So all in all, Tesla is clearly making headway, is massively successful relative to other EVs, the competition still seems pretty thin, and based on the numbers it appears that the Model 3 can be made profitable. I’m not one to claim that any particular stock price is justified but there don’t seem to be any roadblocks to their success. As an aside, Tesla just got a win for a new utility battery pack. This is likely to be a huge market. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1393 "2018-07-07T21:27:41Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Sure, that would be great. I’ll bring up again the [teardown](https://www.wiwo.de/technologie/mobilitaet/elektroauto-zerlegt-tesla-model-3-kann-gewinn-abwerfen/22625806.html) that a German company did of the Model 3. Their claim is that the 3 has a cost (materials+production) of around $28k for the LR model. That’s at a 10k/wk production rate and, presumably, something resembling modern automaker efficiency. But I think we’ll have to wait until Q3 to see how close Tesla got to that. adding a giant tent factory to fix the production failures makes it difficult to see where Tesla stands on productivity. > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Even if they aren’t yet hitting their targets, Tesla is still crushing the competition. Their competition is sport EV’s which has a field of one, Tesla. As for competition in the auto industry, they’re getting their clock cleaned by virtually every other manufacturer on the planet. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1394 "2018-07-07T21:35:39Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > As for competition in the auto industry, they’re getting their clock cleaned by virtually every other manufacturer on the planet. Also not true. The Model 3 [does very well](https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/06/tesla-model-3-vs-small-midsize-premium-car-competition-new-sales-figures-charts/) against the gas competition in the same market segment. The S/X do well against large luxury sedans. A year or two from now, Tesla will produce more cars than Ford. Granted, the bar will be low… ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1395 "2018-07-07T22:04:21Z")
> [@](#): > > Automatic emergency braking is rapidly becoming a standard feature in new cars and a must-test feature for road authorities. > > The Luxembourg testing and standardization authority (ILNAS) did just that with the Tesla Model S and the vehicle failed, but **Tesla questions the validity of the test.** > > ILNAS put a Model S and a Volvo S90 through an emergency braking test. They invited the media to witness the test and now European media outlets are reporting that the Tesla Model S failed the test. According to Luxembourg Wort, the Model S ran into the dummy car at 30 km/h while the S90 was able to stop at up to 60 km/h. [https://electrek.co/2018/07/07/tesla-model-s-fails-auto-braking-test-tesla-questions-validit-test/](https://electrek.co/2018/07/07/tesla-model-s-fails-auto-braking-test-tesla-questions-validit-test/) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1396 "2018-07-08T02:28:15Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Also not true. The Model 3 [does very well](https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/06/tesla-model-3-vs-small-midsize-premium-car-competition-new-sales-figures-charts/) against the gas competition in the same market segment. The S/X do well against large luxury sedans. > > A year or two from now, Tesla will produce more cars than Ford. Granted, the bar will be low… Tesla has operated in a financial deficit for every year of it’s existence. They rushed the Model 3 to market without testing it and were still late to the game with a car full of flaws and they had to throw money at production to make that happen. What could possibly go wrong with this business model. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1397 "2018-07-08T02:50:07Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Tesla has operated in a financial deficit for every year of it’s existence. Since you’re changing the argument now, I suppose you’re acknowledging that the Model 3 is an extremely competitive car, both against EVs as a class and against gas cars in its market segment (small luxury sedan)? As far as profitability goes, we’ll have to wait until Q3 and Q4. That was the promise. Incidentally, Tesla has had a couple of profitable quarters: [16Q3 and 13Q2](http://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-income). Sure, they were probably gamed a little, but even being in the ballpark is a fine position. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1398 "2018-07-08T05:36:04Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Since you’re changing the argument now, I suppose you’re acknowledging that the Model 3 is an extremely competitive car, both against EVs as a class and against gas cars in its market segment (small luxury sedan)? For that kind of money I could get a Ford Mustang GT without waiting a year and still have money left over for a motorcycle. The Mustang is faster, handles better and can be fueled in 5 minutes. > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > As far as profitability goes, we’ll have to wait until Q3 and Q4. That was the promise. The word “promise” has no meaning to Musk. What has meaning is the word “wait”. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1399 "2018-07-08T06:40:12Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > The word “promise” has no meaning to Musk. What has meaning is the word “wait”. Musk very rarely makes absolute statements and almost always qualifies predictions with terms like “cautiously optimistic”, “rough estimate”, “good chance”, “best guess”, etc. For some reason, people like to ignore qualifiers and pretend that hard promises are being made. He’s been more confident about Q3 profitability than most other predictions. From the Q1 call: > [@Elon Musk](#): > > I’m feeling quite confident about achieving GAAP net income and positive cash flow in Q3. This is not a certainty, but it does appear quite likely in my view. We are going to conduct a sort of reorganization, restructuring of the company this month, and make sure we’re well set up to achieve that goal. Even here there are qualifiers, but he seems more confident here than he’s been for almost any other prediction (it’s also obvious that he was talking here about their then-upcoming 9% layoffs). By the end of Q2 they managed to decease headcount by a significant margin, erect a new production line for almost free, and massively increase production. This won’t have much effect on Q2 but Q3 will reap all the benefits. They should be able to sustain 5k/wk, or even a tad more, throughout the quarter. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1400 "2018-07-08T10:25:33Z")
If someone makes a dozen statements that are predictions, even with caveats, and nine of them are wrong (some by a lot), the fact that there are caveats is irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1401 "2018-07-08T12:02:51Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > For that kind of money I could get a Ford Mustang GT without waiting a year and still have money left over for a motorcycle. The Mustang is faster, handles better and can be fueled in 5 minutes. Don’t forget the ten grand in ICE-related ownership costs! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=69) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=71)