# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 73
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1442 "2018-07-19T20:36:53Z")
Not really much concrete info, but there is a [WSJ review](https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-ever-review-of-the-tesla-model-3-performance-a-thrilling-modern-marvel-1532022533) of the Performance Model 3. Verdict: he likes it. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1443 "2018-07-19T20:37:49Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > So I just saw this article on [CNN.com](http://CNN.com) whereby an analyst from Needham & Co. named Rajvindra Gill has stated that as of right now refunds are outpacing deposits for the Model 3, citing the expiration of the $7500 tax credit and long wait times, along with continued unavailability of the base car (which this person also claims likely won’t see production until 2020). > > Tesla of course disputes all these findings, which I guess they always do. I’m not quite sure how the analyst could track how many reservations have been cancelled… and as I read the article, it says that many reservation holders could wait until 2020 for their base model cars to be delivered (as opposed to production of the base model starting in 2020). I’m on a lease until next summer, so I still have plenty of time, but I’m not too optimistic that I will be able to buy a base model. It could happen, but my guess right now is that it will not. And I admit that I’m just pulling this number out of my hindquarters: but of the 450,000 reservations for Model 3s, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if 350,000 or more of them are waiting for a $35-40k car, and not a $50-65k car. It’s clear that Tesla is now doing a campaign to get buyers like me to stretch their budget to $49-75k, to which I’m just going to laugh at how ridiculous that up-selling is. “Welcome to McDonald’s, may I take your order? Okay, your medium number one combo is $6.97. Did you know you can upgrade to our Kobe beef burger with duck fat fries and a Belgian abbey ale for just another $27?” ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1444 "2018-07-19T20:42:18Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Gill kinda seems like a moron. In particular, his prediction that Tesla won’t manage to build 100k Model 3’s this year is nonsense. > > According to [third-party trackers](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/), Tesla has already built 52k Model 3s, most of them this year, and is sustaining 4300/wk. There are, what, around 24 weeks left this year? Even if Tesla stops improving, they will build an _additional_ 100k in the second half of this year. There would have to be some great disaster for them to only produce 100k total 3s this year. > > The deposit refunds don’t seem like a huge concern. The right number for deposit count is zero. Tesla is leaving their “anti-selling” phase (hinted at by **Ravenman** ’s experience), and may at some point have to work hard at keeping sales up (who knows–they may even need advertisements at some point), but for now they have it easy. How could some analyst from a large financial investment company get so many things wrong I wonder? Could Tesla be fudging VIN’s by requesting huge batches of VIN #'s for cars that haven’t entered production and won’t for some time as the article suggests they can? I don’t know. I’m a fan of EV’s and it seems there’s so much arguing back and forth between Tesla and so many other groups that it’s really hard to know the truth. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1445 "2018-07-19T21:39:22Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I’m not quite sure how the analyst could track how many reservations have been cancelled… Some company a while back had access to a bunch of credit card records and looked at $1000 refunds from Tesla. It’s a pretty good bet that these were from Model 3 deposits. They did some extrapolation and came up with some figure for the refund rate. It wasn’t complete nonsense but they didn’t seem to do any more advanced analysis on the data, like looking at Model S upsells or the like. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1446 "2018-07-19T21:46:41Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Could Tesla be fudging VIN’s by requesting huge batches of VIN #'s for cars that haven’t entered production and won’t for some time as the article suggests they can? The Bloomberg tracker adjusts for known gaps in the sequence–this has happened and their reported figure accounts for it. Could Tesla be fudging things in a more subtle way, sprinkling smaller gaps throughout the sequence? Sure, maybe. But there’s enough other evidence about Tesla’s production rate that they’re almost certainly doing what they say. Unofficial reports from employees, spy shots of the factory, giant parking lots filled with 3s, etc. There’s no way they could be fudging things by 2x. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1447 "2018-07-19T22:30:47Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > It’s clear that Tesla is now doing a campaign to get buyers like me to stretch their budget to $49-75k, to which I’m just going to laugh at how ridiculous that up-selling is. Eh… with the effect of the rebate, it doesn’t seem that ridiculous. There are people waiting for the $35k model, but some are waiting for the $40k model, or the $44k model, or the $37.5k model, etc. Some of these would actually be paying less if they bought now instead of 2019. Others would be paying more, but not much more–maybe the battery upgrade isn’t worth $9k to them, but it is worth $5250. There are people on all points of the spectrum and they each have their individual valuation of different features. Some will be on the edge and might be convinced with a little push, and maybe an argument about long-term fuel savings. Others, like yourself, are farther away and are unlikely to be swayed. Looking at Model S sales, a lot of people are coming from Toyotas and other cheap cars. They really did stretch their financials to go all-EV. It’s not crazy for Tesla to push on this a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1448 "2018-07-19T23:51:03Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Looking at Model S sales, a lot of people are coming from Toyotas and other cheap cars. They really did stretch their financials to go all-EV. It’s not crazy for Tesla to push on this a bit. But let’s get real: these were wealthy people who happened to be driving cheap cars, not average Americans who decided to take on a car payment that is just a little smaller than the average monthly mortgage payment. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1449 "2018-07-20T00:04:03Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > It’s clear that Tesla is now doing a campaign to get buyers like me to stretch their budget to $49-75k, to which I’m just going to laugh at how ridiculous that up-selling is. It worked on me, and I’m excited to be paying more than I planned. I’m sure that’s just the cognitive dissonance kicking in. You and I are in opposite places though, you’ve got a year to figure out what you want to do, and 2.5 years ago I was planning to have a Model 3 a year ago… ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1450 "2018-07-20T00:16:29Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > But let’s get real: these were wealthy people who happened to be driving cheap cars Well, there were probably _some_ of them that decided to live in a hovel for the sake of owning an S (wouldn’t the first time that happened for a car). But yes, most S owners are wealthy, even if they once drove cheap cars. These people exist (especially where I live). Tesla probably can’t tell the difference, so they try the upsell; not much harm done if they fail unless they push so hard that people get annoyed. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1451 "2018-07-20T00:50:04Z")
For definitions of “most” meaning something like \>98 percent, I guess so. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1452 "2018-07-20T00:57:13Z")
Depends on your definition of wealthy, too. A 4-person family in San Francisco making $117,000 [is considered low-income](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/28/families-earning-117000-qualify-as-low-income-in-san-francisco.html). They can afford an S but not a 2-bedroom apartment. Can one be “wealthy” and “low-income” at the same time? The mind reels. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1453 "2018-07-20T01:19:27Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Depends on your definition of wealthy, too. A 4-person family in San Francisco making $117,000 [is considered low-income](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/28/families-earning-117000-qualify-as-low-income-in-san-francisco.html). They can afford an S but not a 2-bedroom apartment. Can one be “wealthy” and “low-income” at the same time? The mind reels. If you buy a $125 burger made of the finest Kobe beef, you can’t really argue it’s just a burger. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1454 "2018-07-20T04:22:36Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > If you buy a $125 burger made of the finest Kobe beef, you can’t really argue it’s just a burger. What if the local McDonalds charges $125 for a standard Big Mac? Well, I’m not really interested in getting into a semantic fight over what counts as “wealthy”. Point is, people are in every kind of financial situation one can imagine, and there’s no reason to think the “$35k and not a dime more” crowd is the dominant one. Clearly, people interested in Tesla are on the affluent side. If nothing else, the fact that they are concentrated in California means they have a higher income level than the national average. Some subset of these will be convinced to make the upgrade. In some cases, it’ll even be for rational reasons (overall money savings), but that’s not actually necessary. It makes sense for Tesla to spend some time time on upsells. I don’t want them to turn into a pushy dealership but a certain level is ok. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1455 "2018-07-20T11:28:10Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Depends on your definition of wealthy, too. A 4-person family in San Francisco making $117,000 [is considered low-income](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/28/families-earning-117000-qualify-as-low-income-in-san-francisco.html). They can afford an S but not a 2-bedroom apartment. Can one be “wealthy” and “low-income” at the same time? The mind reels. What’s the average household income for Model 3 owners? Sorry if it was mentioned upthread. Someone making $117,000 per yer probably shouldn’t be spending $80,000 on a car. (Or maybe I’m just too frugal, or don’t have an inheritance, or save too much.) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1456 "2018-07-20T12:46:21Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Point is, people are in every kind of financial situation one can imagine, and there’s no reason to think the “$35k and not a dime more” crowd is the dominant one. I didn’t say $35k and not a dime more. I said $35-40k is likely the car that a substantial majority of reservation holders are waiting for. Based on the delivery time for new orders of premium Model 3s (like $50k on up) going from estimates of three months plus, to stories of some being delivered in a couple weeks, has me suspecting that the demand for cars that really only the top 10% of income earners in the U.S. can afford is probably softer than Tesla fans are willing to admit. > [@Balthisar](#): > > What’s the average household income for Model 3 owners? Sorry if it was mentioned upthread. Someone making $117,000 per yer probably shouldn’t be spending $80,000 on a car. (Or maybe I’m just too frugal, or don’t have an inheritance, or save too much.) I take this survey with a grain of salt, because I don’t understand the methodology, but it indicates the average income for a Model 3 reservation holder is over $150k/yr. This survey contradicts my WAG that most reservation holders want a $35-40k car – they responded they want to spend $48k on a Model 3. It also indicates that the average income for Model S and Model X owners (taken together) is well over $250k. > **[New survey compares demographic of Tesla Model X vs. Model S buyer](https://www.teslarati.com/survey-model-x-owners-income-double-model-s/)** > > Tesla Model X Owners were found to earn nearly twice as much as Model S owners in recent study. Additionally, 97% of owners believe Tesla is on the right track. There are other surveys as well, but this is one data point. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1457 "2018-07-20T21:34:22Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Based on the delivery time for new orders of premium Model 3s (like $50k on up) going from estimates of three months plus, to stories of some being delivered in a couple weeks, has me suspecting that the demand for cars that really only the top 10% of income earners in the U.S. can afford is probably softer than Tesla fans are willing to admit. There are lots of ways to read that. First off, note that we’re talking about North America only so far. Selling overseas will easily double their market. Second, there are some short-term dynamics with regard to the AWD models. They aren’t shipping yet, but there is clear demand for them. This benefits people just wanting the RWD model. That’s consistent with what we see; AWD wait times are still a few months while LR waits are quite a bit less than that. Also, a story here and there about a really short delivery time doesn’t mean much; probably someone cancelled their order and it was immediately given to someone in the area that wanted the same config. Finally, one shouldn’t forget that: - Tesla is still working through their preorder backlog; AFAIK, a “fresh” preorder today still won’t be delivered for months - Model 3 test drives have only barely started. Lots of people won’t even consider buying a car unless they’ve test driven it. - In huge swaths of the country, Teslas are still extremely rare. Mindshare is a huge driver of demand. People buy things that they hear about from their friends, see in person, etc. When the Model 3 starts showing up in these areas, it’ll be its own driver of demand. - Cars last a long time. A lot of people aren’t ready to purchase now, but will be over the next few years. I don’t think Tesla will have a problem selling, say, 250k/y Model 3s in the US at an average price of ~$50k. Sure, some of these will be \<$40k, but others will be \>$60k. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2018, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1458 "2018-07-21T17:53:01Z")
If you were to give a swag of how many Mode 3s would be sold at, say, $45k or less compared to $46k or more, what would you say? ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2018, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1459 "2018-07-21T18:30:21Z")
I’d say 60% on the over side ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1460 "2018-07-21T18:59:46Z")
60% for \>$45k sounds about right to me as well. I doubt we’ll get confirmation on that, though. We probably will get an average selling price, though, and I’m guessing $50k for that (once the base model is shipping in volume, say 19Q2). ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2018, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1461 "2018-07-23T20:35:55Z")
They finally fixed the Superchargers near my parent’s place. Result: 119 kW peak power, 490 mi/h peak rate. Pretty neat to get a half charge in \<20 min. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=72) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=74)