# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1482 "2018-08-01T22:02:57Z")
Unless the extra factory was listed as part of the original plan I don’t see how the cost was factored into the car. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1483 "2018-08-01T22:14:43Z")
Tesla reports biggest loss in it’s history: > **[Tesla reported the biggest loss in its history. But it could've been worse](https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/01/news/companies/tesla-earnings-walkup/index.html)** > > Tesla reported its largest quarterly loss in its history on Wednesday. But Wall Street was expecting worse. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1484 "2018-08-01T23:06:25Z")
TSLA is up 9% after hours, so at least for now investors seem to be satisfied. Not really any surprises from what I see. They reiterated their intent to be profitable in Q3/Q4 (and beyond, with exceptions for one-time things like debt repayments and factory expansions). And it definitely seems possible at this point. They’ll get a boost from the fact that they currently have a lot of cars in flight due to gaming the 200k car threshold, which won’t be true for Q4 (but then, gross margins will have increased). Tesla isn’t out of the woods yet, but it’s pretty obvious that the shorts still have no real case. I was pleased to see Einhorn admit to [losing a shitload of money](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/einhorns-greenlight-trying-end-fund-195058979.html) betting against Tesla. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1485 "2018-08-01T23:13:00Z")
One pretty interesting bit from the call was that their Autopilot 3.0 hardware is apparently back from the fab and working, and is an order of magnitude faster for the same price. Kinda curious if I’ll get a retrofit on my Model 3. It’s been a little unclear whether the current 2.5 HW has enough horsepower to do full self-driving, or even do the processing for all 8 cameras at once. From the sounds of things–probably not. Tesla has said they’ll do free upgrades if needed, at least if you bought the FSD feature. ---
**Author:** ![Darryl\_Lict](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7cd45c/32.png) [@Darryl\_Lict](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darryl_Lict)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1486 "2018-08-01T23:46:51Z")
Just took a ride in my buddy’s Tesla 3. It’s a really nice car, and is ludicrously fast. He has the two motor model and I think it cost on the order of $80K. Could be wrong about that price as sit seems absurd, but he had no problem paying it. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1487 "2018-08-01T23:58:49Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Tesla isn’t out of the woods yet, but it’s pretty obvious that the shorts still have no real case. Not on terraformed Mars, maybe, but on this planet, they have legitimate points about how Tesla is being run. It’s just the case that Tesla shareholders tend to be living on another planet, while Tesla bondholders are crapping their pants. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1488 "2018-08-02T00:02:58Z")
That must have been the performance model with all the options–with tax and fees (and before rebate) it can go over $80k. The RWD model (what I have) is still pretty dang nice and quicker than most cars. After rebates it can go for around $40k. Roughly what part of the country are you in? I’d love to see a map of shipments. Clearly, the west coast still dominates but I’ll bet we see a wider geographical spread with the 3 vs. other EVs. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1489 "2018-08-02T00:11:58Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Not on terraformed Mars, maybe, but on this planet, they have legitimate points about how Tesla is being run. It’s just the case that Tesla shareholders tend to be living on another planet, while Tesla bondholders are crapping their pants. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. It’s not that an argument against Tesla can’t be made. Obviously it can. But the actual output of the Tesla shorts is almost entirely bullshit, and often descends into conspiracy nonsense. They’re pushing an agenda beyond what the facts support in the hope that a sufficient quantity of negative news will depress the stock price. It’s pretty obvious now that Tesla doesn’t have any real short-term (next few years) competition in their space, and that they’re slowly getting their shit together when it comes to manufacturing and the financials. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1490 "2018-08-02T00:32:51Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Tesla reports biggest loss in it’s history: > > [Tesla reported the biggest loss in its history. But could've been worse](https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/01/news/companies/tesla-earnings-walkup/index.html) Tesla reports highest revenue in its history. > **[Tesla is finally making money on the Model 3](https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/1/17639588/tesla-earning-q2-2018-model-3-production)** > > Tesla may have struggled through “production hell” to build the Model 3, but the car has helped the company set a new record: $4 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2018, according to an earnings report published on Wednesday. It also reached... ---
**Author:** ![Darryl\_Lict](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7cd45c/32.png) [@Darryl\_Lict](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darryl_Lict)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1491 "2018-08-02T00:36:44Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > That must have been the performance model with all the options–with tax and fees (and before rebate) it can go over $80k. The RWD model (what I have) is still pretty dang nice and quicker than most cars. After rebates it can go for around $40k. > > Roughly what part of the country are you in? I’d love to see a map of shipments. Clearly, the west coast still dominates but I’ll bet we see a wider geographical spread with the 3 vs. other EVs. I’m in California. And yeah, it was a super deluxe model. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1492 "2018-08-02T00:41:23Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > Tesla reports highest revenue in its history. Funny how the tone can change completely depending on which particular fact one decides to put in the headline. “Tesla achieves positive gross margins on Model 3” would have been another possible headline. “Biggest loss” appears to require a somewhat tortured interpretation of the results, too. Net cash flow was $743M this quarter, compared to $770M and $785M in the two previous quarters. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1493 "2018-08-02T00:43:11Z")
> [@Darryl\_Lict](#): > > I’m in California. And yeah, it was a super deluxe model. I’m tempted to test drive one, but fear it would “ruin” my current 3! That already happened once when I test drove a Model S and it ruined ICE cars forever… ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1494 "2018-08-02T01:05:51Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > But the actual output of the Tesla shorts is almost entirely bullshit, and often descends into conspiracy nonsense. They’re pushing an agenda beyond what the facts support in the hope that a sufficient quantity of negative news will depress the stock price. Complete and total Tesla propaganda. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1495 "2018-08-02T01:22:40Z")
You have blinders on if you think shorts with billions of dollars at stake aren’t pushing on every possible negative story on Tesla. Just read the stuff that Einhorn said in the article I linked to. Just about everything is either an outright lie or has already been proven wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1496 "2018-08-02T01:25:14Z")
It’s the first rule of cults to describe those who criticize them as being people who have a singleminded goal to wreck the good in order for a short-term benefit. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1497 "2018-08-02T01:45:17Z")
And that’s the end of _that_ conversation, too. Moving on. One amusing thing that came up during the conference call: the tent assembly area used equipment which wasn’t rated for the full loads put on it (specifically, it wasn’t supposed to support an entire car). Their solution was to put it on a 1% downslope. Gravity gave just enough extra force to move the vehicles along smoothly. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1498 "2018-08-02T01:52:51Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > And that’s the end of _that_ conversation, too. Moving on. And that’s the _second_ rule of cults, that they get to decide when to end the conversation when they have no legitimate rebuttal… :):)🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1499 "2018-08-02T03:07:05Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > And that’s the _second_ rule of cults, that they get to decide when to end the conversation when they have no legitimate rebuttal… Uh huh. I claimed that Einhorn and others are pushing a particular agenda about Tesla. From [the article](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/einhorns-greenlight-trying-end-fund-195058979.html) that I linked to earlier: > [@](#): > > Einhorn, along with fellow hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, is one of the electric carmaker’s fiercest critics, accusing it of putting “dangerous products” on the road and saying it was burning through cash. It’s a flat-out lie to claim that Tesla’s products are dangerous. They may have overstated the safety qualities of Autopilot, etc., but there’s no legitimate case that Tesla’s cars are dangerous. We also have: > [@](#): > > He said he doubted the car could be “produced profitably anytime soon, if ever” and criticized the company’s plan to rush cars to customers. Already shown to be wrong–the Model 3 has positive gross margins. Obviously that’s not enough yet to make Tesla profitable as a whole, but the claim was about the Model 3, and is simply wrong. There’s more, of course. Sometimes, as with Mark Spiegel, it really veers into conspiracy-land, with weird claims about parking lots full of cars or whatever. But even for more legitimate people like Einhorn, their claims are increasingly ridiculous. In response to these claims, **Ravenman** said I was part of a cult. You think I’m the one without a legitimate rebuttal? I think this thread is going to be very amusing a year from now. But hey, maybe I’m wrong and Tesla will collapse. Could happen. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1500 "2018-08-02T03:28:20Z")
Another bit from the conference call–the top 5 non-Tesla trade-ins: [ul] [li]Toyota Prius[/li][li]BMW 3-series[/li][li]Honda Accord[/li][li]Honda Civic[/li][li]Nissan Leaf[/li][/ul] Looks like a lot of people are trading up, despite the $35k model not yet being available. It’s not really a surprising list; the BMW owners want a nice EV sports sedan, the Prius+Leaf owners want a better EV but couldn’t afford an S or X, and the Accord+Civic are just popular cars. Still, it’s interesting to see how many people are making a real jump in expenses just to own a Tesla. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1501 "2018-08-02T06:12:20Z")
Reading the letter a bit further, I really think the inventory figure is pretty significant and may be the biggest reason for the positive investor response (though we’ll see if that sticks). Tesla built 53,339 cars and delivered 40,768, for a difference of 12,571. It’s not clear exactly what fraction of these were Model 3s, but they also stated a vehicle inventory of $579M. It’s not quite right to just divide these numbers since they represent slightly different things, but it should be pretty close, and if we do we get a figure of $46k per car. That’s much closer to Model 3 prices than S/X, so it’s likely dominated by 3s. That’s not really a surprise; we knew that Tesla was gaming the 200k threshold, and furthermore had some difficulties with transport (Tesla [isn’t the only one](https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2018/07/21/ram-trucks-gibraltar-trade-center/808814002/)) and deliveries. Regardless, it means Tesla is sitting on a big asset ready to be sold. If even half of those had gone to Q2, their quarter would have looked a lot better. Instead, they’ll be sold under Q3, making Q3 look _really_ good (because they’re selling cars that they already paid for). The fact that they kept their losses flat in Q2 despite this surge in inventory is a pretty good sign. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=76)