# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 77
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1522 "2018-08-04T19:47:21Z")
Well, yeah, he said they weren’t selling it yet… but whether one takes Elon’s statements as uncharitably as I do (I personally think he regards being exciting as much more important than being reliable) or more charitably as others (thinking of your comments about how hard it is to predict the future), I still question whether a $35k car is a good bet. I note that there was far more discussion on the call about the Model Y than the one sentence on the base model. My swag right now is that there’s maybe a 35% chance it never happens, and maybe even money that buyers will have to also purchase some upgrades, or they will just truncate the production and force buyers to upgrade. And in my particular situation, it could well be that production of the non-base models continues to be prioritized, meaning when I need to get a new car, my option will be $49k or more, or buy something else. Since there’s no way I can afford a car that costs like ten grand more than I feel comfortable stretching my budget for, well… poop. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2018, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1523 "2018-08-04T19:52:22Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > I’m pretty well settled on the Blue Dual Motor non-performance edition with the Enhanced Autopilot. > > I’ve been back and forth in the AWD or not. We do get a handful of snow storms every year which isn’t too much except it takes the city 2-3 days to dig us out and I don’t have the option to stay at home if I’m scheduled to work. My current vehicle is RWD and is atrocious in even the lightest of snow or ice so I end up driving my wife’s AWD SUV which leaves her stranded at the house with the kids on those days. I bet the single motor traction control would be adequate 90% of the time, but having some piece of mind would be worth the extra cost for us. You may want to consider just getting a dedicated set of winter tires. RWD+winter tires will give better ice/snow performance than AWD+all seasons , especially in braking. The $5k extra for AWD will buy a lot of tires. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2018, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1524 "2018-08-04T20:51:02Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > And in my particular situation, it could well be that production of the non-base models continues to be prioritized I don’t particularly disagree with your swag–sure, there some non-trivial chance at forced bundling or whatever–but I see this as the bigger risk. If demand for the other models stays high relative to production capacity, they could deprioritize the base models for a long time. I’d be shocked if they actually reduced production (or failed to increase it) just to avoid producing the base model. And I think they will at least put out some token number of them. But as long as they have a queue of buyers for the more expensive ones, they’ll almost certainly focus on those. I _would_ advise ordering as soon as the configurator opens. As one would hope, Tesla doesn’t raise prices after one locks in the order. But I could see them raising prices before the first one has actually shipped. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2018, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1525 "2018-08-04T21:19:59Z")
Interestingly, I just read something from a short/FUDster that was… maybe not good news for me but interesting (and also relates to our earlier guesses at average prices of the 3). First, there’s this exchange: > [@](#): > > John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch > > Okay. If I can sneak in one quick follow-up? I mean, when we look at the grosses on the Model 3, you’re saying 15% in 3Q, 20% in 4Q and I think the ultimate target is 25%. I mean, what are the average transaction prices you guys are assuming? I mean, it sounds like they are going to be bit higher earlier but is that 25% gross ultimately still built around the low-40,000 ATP? > > Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. > > Yes. > > John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch > > Okay. > > Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. > > The simple answer is yes. So Elon’s saying the average transaction price will be low $40s. And then from the investor letter: > [@](#): > > We believe future Model 3 cost savings will more than offset the normalization of the Model 3 average selling price in the second half of 2019, resulting in improving gross margins and stable gross profit per vehicle. But it sounds like there won’t be significant sales of sub-$49k cars until the second half of next year. Grain of salt and all, but I’m starting to wonder whether my $1k interest free loan is worth it. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1526 "2018-08-05T03:39:27Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > And then from the investor letter: But it sounds like there won’t be significant sales of sub-$49k cars until the second half of next year. That doesn’t seem to follow–even if the average was as high as $50k, I’d expect significant sales at the $35-40k mark. They’ll still be selling plenty of high-spec models, and those will be balanced out by the low end. I’d expect that most buyers will get at least one “big” option–Long Range, AWD, PUP, or Autopilot. That pushes the average up, but doesn’t mean the base model doesn’t exist. BTW, the statement after your quote adds a bit of context: > [@Deepak Ahuja](#): > > It’ll be lower ASPs than what we have today, clearly, and we are having a richer mix of All-Wheel Drive, as Elon alluded to earlier, so that’s going to help, but yeah. 25% is still the target that we have ahead of us. It seems to me that they’re putting more emphasis on the 25% figure than the low-40k figure. Ahuja just says the ASP will be lower than today, but repeats the 25%. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1527 "2018-08-05T03:44:19Z")
Finally got the new 26.3 update (from 21.something). The big new feature is summon, which I tried in my garage, but unfortunately the networking sucks there and I can’t reliably connect. I’l have to try it out somewhere else. It adds a few other nifty features, like WiFi support, a lock confirmation sound, and cabin overheat protection. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 11:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1528 "2018-08-05T11:04:43Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I agree that there probably will be very few true base models sold. But I think there will be a fair amount sold for each of the individual standard options. Tesla would have to specifically require at least one package or something for the base model to be totally gone. Kind of like those other auto manufacturers’ ads where they show an auto gliding by with As low as$19,999 on the top and As equipped, $31,950 on the bottom. ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1529 "2018-08-05T13:44:06Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > Kind of like those other auto manufacturers’ ads where they show an auto gliding by with > As low as$19,999 > on the top and > > As equipped, $31,950 > > on the bottom. To be fair, as I see it, the absolute bare minimum price I would pay for a new Model 3 would be 46k. The reason is that buying a 35k vehicle capable of autopilot and then not paying for the feature isn’t something I would be able to do. And the premium interior - buy a car that has the capability of a full glass roof and then not pay for it? Yeah, no thanks. And black? Do you know how hot a black car gets in the summer? Can’t do that either. So it’s really a 46k car. And even if I gave up on the improved sound and glass roof and went with black, the autopilot is basically a minimum functionality feature. So Model 3s start at 40k. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1530 "2018-08-05T14:59:54Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > That doesn’t seem to follow–even if the average was as high as $50k, I’d expect significant sales at the $35-40k mark. They’ll still be selling plenty of high-spec models, and those will be balanced out by the low end. > > I’d expect that most buyers will get at least one “big” option–Long Range, AWD, PUP, or Autopilot. That pushes the average up, but doesn’t mean the base model doesn’t exist. > > BTW, the statement after your quote adds a bit of context: > > It seems to me that they’re putting more emphasis on the 25% figure than the low-40k figure. Ahuja just says the ASP will be lower than today, but repeats the 25%. Are we saying the same thing, though? That base Model 3 (or a base plus one option, whichever it is) will not really be a thing until late 2019? **SamuelA** - that’s interesting because Autopilot is the one option that I would never order, even if money was no object. Primarily because I do like 80% driving in the city, but also a bit because I just don’t trust it one bit. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1531 "2018-08-05T16:38:09Z")
I’m also in the camp that says “auto pilot” is a non-starter. Calling an assisted driving option “auto pilot” gives the impression the car can drive itself. It can’t. It does not have the capacity to think for itself and no amount of programming can compensate for that. I would never pay extra for such a liability. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1532 "2018-08-05T17:53:01Z")
I was also pretty weary of autopilot, but after using it on the freeway I’m sold. Stop and go traffic is the absolute best application of the feature. It eliminates foot fatigue, and the mental fatigue of focusing constantly on keeping distance. If you drive in an area of freeway traffic often, I’d say autopilot is an absolute selling point. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1533 "2018-08-05T18:09:47Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > Kind of like those other auto manufacturers’ ads where they show an auto gliding by with Remember, though, that Tesla doesn’t use dealers. Whereas for a normal car, any given dealer might simply not have that model on hand, and give you the run around when you tell them to search their dealer network, with a Tesla you just uncheck those boxes. That said, clearly those boxes don’t yet exist, but so far I don’t see evidence that Tesla plans on making the current option set permanent. > [@SamuelA](#): > > And black? Do you know how hot a black car gets in the summer? Can’t do that either. That’s one thing that actually isn’t a problem at all. The car has “cabin overheat protection”, limiting cabin temps to 105 (it’s mainly intended to protect children and pets that have been locked in). And you can set the climate control from the phone app, so if it’s a hot day you just turn it on 10 minutes before your errands are done and your car will be a comfortable 70 degrees when you get there. Autopilot is great, and absolutely worth it–but I went 25 years without it. So if I were budget constrained I’d absolutely skip it. You can always add it later, too, if your budget opens up later on. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1534 "2018-08-05T18:28:23Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Are we saying the same thing, though? That base Model 3 (or a base plus one option, whichever it is) will not really be a thing until late 2019? Let’s say that the ASP in late 2019 is $43k. That’s basically one big option plus maybe one small–say, Long Range, or AWD+paint, or Autopilot+wheels, etc. But lots of people are going to get two or three big options (LR+AWD, etc.), and for each of those there will be at least one base model sold. Or at least one without any of the big options. Today, the ASP is probably around $55k. Tesla hasn’t said for sure, and AWD probably bumped it up a bit, so it might be close to $60k now. Regardless, it’s a cut above the $49k minimum price. Early 2019 is halfway between those points, so I don’t think it’s too crazy to assume the ASP will be as well–around $49k. That’s two of the big options–LR+AWD, etc. But people will still be buying super-premium models; either fully optioned normal ones or performance. So there’s still some balance against the ASP. Sure, in principle they could require one big option. That would balance the a ~$43k model against the high-spec ones to average $49k. But which one? Maybe they offer several “base” models, each of which bundles one of the big options, so that you can’t just unselect all of them. It’s possible but I don’t think it’s super likely. So as I said, come early 2019 I think the base will be on offer but will not sell that many units. It would not surprise me if Tesla plays games with the production priority, though. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1535 "2018-08-07T16:13:43Z")
Here’s a really weird thing. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety did an analysis of claims data for the old and new Autopilot on Model Ss. They found that cars with the newer system “lowered the frequency of claims filed under property damage liability (PDL) coverage by 11 percent and the frequency of claims under bodily injury (BI) liability coverage by 21 percent.” So that sounds like good news for the safety of Autopilot, right? Here’s where it gets weird: the study “found a 29 percent increase in the frequency of claims under medical payment (Medpay) coverage and a 39 percent increase in the frequency of personal injury protection (PIP) claims.” What does this mean? “The findings for PDL, BI and collision claims are in line with prior HLDI research on forward collision warning, autobrake and blind spot monitoring. For MedPay and PIP, it is unclear why the driver assistance technologies are associated with increased claim frequency.” And of course there’s a caveat on the numbers, too: “Since Autopilot is an optional feature, analysts couldn’t discern which vehicles had Autopilot and whether it — and other available driver assistance features — was on at the time of the crash.” [http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/53/4/3](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/53/4/3) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1536 "2018-08-07T18:20:54Z")
In even more odd news, [what the f?](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/tesla-stock-jumps-on-musks-tweet-that-he-is-considering-taking-compan.html) ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1537 "2018-08-07T19:14:34Z")
That’s odd. Erratic behavior is not a good quality in a CEO. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1538 "2018-08-07T19:27:59Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > In even more odd news, [what the f?](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/tesla-stock-jumps-on-musks-tweet-that-he-is-considering-taking-compan.html) From the link: > [@](#): > > Musk has said he expects Tesla to begin being profitable in the third quarter of 2018. We’re nearly halfway through the third quarter of 2018. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1539 "2018-08-07T19:48:07Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > That’s odd. Erratic behavior is not a good quality in a CEO. [More info](https://www.tesla.com/blog/taking-tesla-private). He [claims](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026914941004001280) he has the funding. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1540 "2018-08-07T19:54:06Z")
Why do I get the feeling that this is driven by him being annoyed by critics? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1541 "2018-08-07T20:18:41Z")
There’s nothing remotely erratic here. Musk has said over and over again (for many years) that he hates the “perverse incentives” that come with being a public company. SpaceX is private and runs much more smoothly than Tesla. I don’t think anyone can deny that the constant financial news coverage of Tesla is a massive distraction at best. I certainly hope they can pull it off. They need about $35B worth of investors to vote on it. Doesn’t sound too crazy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=76) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=78)