# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 81
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2018, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1602 "2018-08-13T22:37:18Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > I agree that it seems like jumping the gun a bit, but to stretch your analogy a bit further–if you’re the seller, then you know the title search is going to come back clean. So if that’s the main obstacle, then it might not be too much to say you have a secure deal. No, it’s not the same at all. For example, how is Elon supposed to “know” that CFIUS review is going to come back clean? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2018, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1603 "2018-08-13T22:49:30Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > No, it’s not the same at all. For example, how is Elon supposed to “know” that CFIUS review is going to come back clean? It’s your analogy, man :). I’m just saying that for your example of a home seller, it is pretty reasonable for someone to say they have a buyer lined up if the title search is all that’s left, because they have extra information available. I doubt Elon has any idea of the results of a CFIUS investigation. Though I think it’s pretty obvious that the statement came with those sorts of caveats, since those questions can’t possibly be answered until the board votes on a real proposal. I’ve no idea if the SEC will see it that way. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2018, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1604 "2018-08-13T23:28:21Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > It’s your analogy, man :). I’m just saying that for your example of a home seller, it is pretty reasonable for someone to say they have a buyer lined up if the title search is all that’s left, because they have extra information available. > > I doubt Elon has any idea of the results of a CFIUS investigation. Though I think it’s pretty obvious that the statement came with those sorts of caveats, since those questions can’t possibly be answered until the board votes on a real proposal. I’ve no idea if the SEC will see it that way. Good lord. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2018, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1605 "2018-08-13T23:46:48Z")
So, you think the SEC will take serious action against Musk? Jail time? Force him to step down as CEO? A non-trivial fine? Because short of actual action, this is really just semantic wankery. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2018, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1606 "2018-08-14T00:18:12Z")
I don’t know securities law, but I just have to ask you a question. At a couple points in this thread, you talked about how Tesla fanboys often take things too far. Do you consider yourself a fanboy; and if not, what differentiates your views on Tesla from those who take it too far? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2018, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1607 "2018-08-14T00:39:18Z")
Not a big fan of labels. I suppose I should try harder not to label others. I don’t know the exact threshold between healthy and unhealthy fanboyism. I like Musk only insofar as he keeps running Tesla and SpaceX running in the right direction. I don’t like everything he’s done, but at the same time he’s earned a _lot_ of credibility in the past decade, so it would take more than a few ill-advised tweets to change that opinion. As for Tesla specifically, I don’t have much of a choice when it comes down to it. There are no other cool EVs. When another cool EV appears, I’ll reevaluate my Tesla fan status. Over two years ago I put a deposit down for the Model 3 based on sheer blind optimism and fanboyism (frankly, there’s not much else that could get me to wake at 6 am). I had no real reason to believe that Tesla would even survive long enough to build anything, but that optimism paid off. Until that pattern changes, I’ll put my confidence in Tesla over their naysayers. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2018, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1608 "2018-08-15T03:56:48Z")
There’s nothing wrong with optimism and you’re entitled to be a fanboy of Tesla. I think Musk has already cemented his place in history as bigger than life. But as a CEO he’s a dick with other people’s money. If someone made a movie of him nobody would believe it. He’s like a James Bond super villain complete with his own rocket. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2018, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1609 "2018-08-15T04:35:55Z")
As I’ve said, I’m a bigger fan of Tesla and SpaceX than I am of Musk. The two companies are bigger than Musk, and are filled with all kinds of people that are also hyper-talented but without the narcissism–JB Straubel, Franz von Holzhausen, Tom Mueller, Gwynne Shotwell, etc. But let’s not pretend that Elon is just gambling with other people’s money. He put every dime of his PayPal money into Tesla and SpaceX at a very risky time. And today, virtually all of his net worth is in the two companies. Actually, I suspect that _over_ 100% of his net worth is in the two companies, since I know he’s taken out loans simply to buy more shares. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2018, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1610 "2018-08-15T22:16:14Z")
It’s a good thing nobody said he’s just gambling with other people’s money. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2018, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1611 "2018-08-15T22:29:15Z")
I presumed you meant something along those lines when you said “dick with other people’s money.” I’m not sure what you would have meant otherwise. In any case, 20-25% of Tesla is still owned by Musk. Ars Technica [had an article](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/08/a-huge-outlier-why-musks-buyout-tweet-could-get-him-in-legal-trouble/) where they consulted a few experts about the consequences of the tweet. TL;DR: it was ill-advised and unprecedented, though not because it was in tweet form; it’s possible it will lead to some action by the SEC; however, it’s unlikely that the penalty will be significant (big fine/prison/ouster as CEO/etc.). Really, I hope the SEC gives him _just_ enough of a slap on the wrist to make him think twice about doing that again, but not so much as to damage his ability to run Tesla. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2018, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1612 "2018-08-15T23:10:50Z")
In other news, here are a couple of nice charts of Model 3 sales: [https://i.redd.it/itjj7mqqywf11.jpg](https://i.redd.it/itjj7mqqywf11.jpg) [![](https://i.imgur.com/rGCSqLr.png) ](https://i.imgur.com/rGCSqLr.png) The first is an illustration of just how petty and absurd the early production rate criticism was. It’s an excellent example of exponential growth. Like all exponentials, the first part of the curve is essentially negligible; although it is growing at the same rate as later on, the absolute numbers are so low that they are utterly dominated by the later parts of the curve. This is exactly why I argued earlier that looking at Tesla’s shortfall in absolute numbers is nonsense; the right way to look at it is in the delay over time. And indeed, Tesla really was just 6 months late; not a big deal and far less than previous delays. Looked at without all the noise of clickbait garbage news, the production growth looks remarkably uneventful. In fact, you can see that even though almost all of the total production happened in the last few months, the growth is actually _slowing down_. The first 4 months grew by a factor of 10. The next four months grew by another factor of 10. But the final four months only grew by a factor of 4. As expected, we’re reaching the end of the exponential curve and into the tail-off portion. There’s less than another factor of 3 to go before they reach their long-term projected limit \*. As for the second chart, you can see that the Model 3 comprises around half of all EV/PHEV vehicles sold in the US. And that’s Tesla competing against their own S/X vehicles. Not to mention including PHEVs, which is really kinda silly. It’ll be pretty cool when Tesla faces some real competition. The Bolt obviously wasn’t it, despite coming out significantly earlier (though the car itself was only half the problem). \*: Some of the sales in July obviously belong in June–the exponential doesn’t look smooth at that point. Those were almost certainly sales delayed to postpone the 200k limit. Doesn’t change the overall picture, though. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1613 "2018-08-16T00:54:10Z")
I test drove a Model 3 Performance the other day. First, I really, really liked the car. But I told the “co-pilot” — aka salesman — that I was really interested in the standard model to come, and he said driving it in “chill” mode would give me a good idea what a non performance M3 would be like. I also drove it in the non-chill mode for a bit. My overall assessment between the two: imagine you are given a burger made of Kobe beef, with a fine brioche bun, with double fried frites, all for a price of $18. I’d take that in a second. Then, imagine how great that burger would be if there were some organic free range sesame seeds on that bun, just for an additional $7. Whut? Obviously, there’s a (small) market for sesame seeds if you want to pay a silly price, but… it’s silly. I’ve read of some silly people with too much money who are ready to trade in their early M3s for performance versions, and man, they live on a different planet than most of us (either because of their priorities or their vast wealth). But man, now I really want one. And seeing that the standard version is expected in production in 5-8 months (which is probably 6-10 months in Earth time), I’m guessing the odds of me being able to get one when my lease expires in a year are getting substantially worse. Fuckers. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1614 "2018-08-16T01:02:56Z")
Nice! I’ve been tempted to try out the performance version just for kicks. But really all it would accomplish is to make me wish I had one. The RWD model is still very quick. Did the version you drive have the white interior? I’ve seen one driving around here from a distance, and it certainly looked cool from the outside but wouldn’t mind taking a closer peek. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1615 "2018-08-16T01:14:11Z")
Yes, it had white. It was the sort of thing where I thought it looked very cool, but not actually sure it was my bag. One other thought: I tried Autopilot on the freeway. It was both cool and frightening. I’m more firm in my opinion that I’m just going to let all that tech mature for a few more years before I actually trust it. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1616 "2018-08-16T01:22:19Z")
From photos, the white is indeed a bit on the spaceshippy side. The black is pretty conventional once you get past the dashboard. Though I guess I’m not sure what the non-PUP version will look like. I like the wood trim with PUP (the BMW had that too). Given that Autopilot can be added later, a wait and see approach is completely reasonable. I like it a lot but it really depends on your driving situation and style. Some people use it in situations where I would not. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1617 "2018-08-16T02:05:40Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > In other news, here are a couple of nice charts of Model 3 sales: > [Reddit - Dive into anything](https://i.redd.it/itjj7mqqywf11.jpg) > [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](https://i.imgur.com/rGCSqLr.png) > > The first is an illustration of just how petty and absurd the early production rate criticism was. the criticism was of Musk’s predictions. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1618 "2018-08-16T04:19:12Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Yes, it had white. It was the sort of thing where I thought it looked very cool, but not actually sure it was my bag. > > One other thought: I tried Autopilot on the freeway. It was both cool and frightening. I’m more firm in my opinion that I’m just going to let all that tech mature for a few more years before I actually trust it. One of us! One of us! One of us! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1619 "2018-08-16T04:38:24Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > the criticism was of Musk’s predictions. It was the nature of the criticism that was the problem, not its existence. Which sounds worse: - Tesla only produces one-twentieth as many Model 3s as projected - Model 3 production ramp delayed by 6 months Both are true, and refer to the same exact figures, but the first sounds disastrous and the second no big deal. More importantly, the first has no real long-term relevance. The production during that initial period was always going to be fairly small. It is the _end_ of an exponential ramp that tells you everything about the behavior. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1620 "2018-08-16T05:21:37Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > and he said driving it in “chill” mode would give me a good idea what a non performance M3 would be like. Incidentally–while this is probably the best simulation they could give, it’s inaccurate in one particular way. Chill mode caps acceleration _and_ smooths out changes in acceleration (for the engineers: it limits jerk). So you won’t get quite the same “sharpness” in response time as you would with a normal non-performance model. Peak acceleration may differ between models but they all respond instantly to throttle input (outside of chill mode). ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1621 "2018-08-16T13:25:07Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > In other news, here are a couple of nice charts of Model 3 sales: > [Reddit - Dive into anything](https://i.redd.it/itjj7mqqywf11.jpg) > [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](https://i.imgur.com/rGCSqLr.png) > > The first is an illustration of just how petty and absurd the early production rate criticism was. > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > It was the nature of the criticism that was the problem, not its existence. Which sounds worse: > > - Tesla only produces one-twentieth as many Model 3s as projected > - Model 3 production ramp delayed by 6 months Actually, the criticism of Tesla is based on the [last graphic](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/) on this page. It shows that Tesla sought to produce 5k/wk by the end of 4Q17, then 1Q18, and it is only now starting to happen in the mid-to-end of 3Q18. That means that for every Model 3 that has been sold so far, there’s about three customers who should have received one had Tesla fulfilled what it said it was going to do. Does that mean the end of the company? Of course not. But not every failure to perform means the end of a company. And finally they seem to be recovering, but one can’t just brush away 180,000+ underserved customers as not being a matter of not delivering. > [@Bone](#): > > One of us! One of us! One of us! Well, I would like to be, but that’s up to Tesla. > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Incidentally–while this is probably the best simulation they could give, it’s inaccurate in one particular way. Chill mode caps acceleration _and_ smooths out changes in acceleration (for the engineers: it limits jerk). So you won’t get quite the same “sharpness” in response time as you would with a normal non-performance model. Peak acceleration may differ between models but they all respond instantly to throttle input (outside of chill mode). I had booked the test drive in their non-performance car, but there was some kind of mix-up so that car wasn’t available. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=80) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=82)