# Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 31, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478 "2017-07-31T04:19:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 94
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2018, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1862 "2018-10-01T01:36:36Z")
> [@cardinal\_fang](#): > > At the risk of rerailing the thread, does anyone know if the $1k Destination and Documentation Fee applies to all orders, or just deliveries (i.e. cars not picked up at the factory)? My understanding is that there’s no way out of the fee, even if picked up at the factory. v9 is supposed to get pushed out Monday. Beta reports are pretty positive. ---
**Author:** ![CrimeThink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/90db22/32.png) [@CrimeThink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrimeThink)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2018, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1863 "2018-10-01T20:32:55Z")
My lease is up in March. Any idea what the odds of being able to get a Model 3 for at or under 40k would be by then? (After rebates, which I believe will only be a 5k discount at that time) I think that is within the estimates that they would make them available, but if there’s going to be a long wait to get one even after they start selling them I am not optimistic. I could splurge on the cheapest current model, but I hate the idea of paying for a larger battery when I know it’s not going to be necessary. Any long distance driving would be done by the family SUV. I was hoping this would be the time I could switch to an EV, but nothing else currently on the market seems fast enough to suit my driving preferences. I’m guessing I will be looking at another 3 year lease to wait to buy an affordable EV. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2018, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1864 "2018-10-01T20:49:33Z")
> [@CrimeThink](#): > > My lease is up in March. Any idea what the odds of being able to get a Model 3 for at or under 40k would be by then? IMHO, almost zero. If you were a day one reservation holder, I’d say single digit chances, maybe. Production of the standard range model is currently support to begin 4-7 months from now. My lease is up in August, and I put in a reservation this past spring. I’m also looking for a standard range Model 3, most likely with the premium package. I think my chances of having a chance to buy one are currently hovering around one in ten. I’m going to give it another couple months just to see what happens, but I’m thinking that I was a sucker to put down a grand in hopes of being bestowed the honor of being allowed to buy a car next summer that will have been in production for two years. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2018, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1865 "2018-10-01T21:51:49Z")
> [@CrimeThink](#): > > I was hoping this would be the time I could switch to an EV, but nothing else currently on the market seems fast enough to suit my driving preferences. What do you mean by “fast enough”? Every EV on the market is perfectly capable of reaching the speed limit on any US highway. The Chevy Bolt does 0-60 in 6.3 seconds. That’s, what, within half a second of the Golf GTI? The Tesla Model-3 is faster, but with EVs, battery capacity affects performance, so the $40k version will likely be slower than the currently available configurations. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2018, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1866 "2018-10-01T22:10:59Z")
You might be better off buying early rather than late. The cheapest Model 3 is still $49k (not including fees). Federal rebate is $7500 until the end of the year, and if you have any kind of state rebate, it could put the total under $40k. You’ll probably get the car before the end of the year if you order now (the website says 4 weeks). I agree that the odds are quite bad if you don’t have a preorder in already. I’m a little more optimistic than **Ravenman** , particularly given how well Tesla seems to be doing in Q3, but there’s going to be a lot of people in front of you. The Federal rebate goes down to $3750 come next year (first two quarters). Then $1875 for the second half. No one knows exactly what Tesla’s plans are, but it’s possible there will be some version that’s \>$35k but \<$49k first. Either LR without PUP or vice versa. A plain LR model would be $44k, so with rebate that would be $40.25k. The odds might be a tiny bit higher for that, though that’s entirely speculation. ---
**Author:** ![CrimeThink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/90db22/32.png) [@CrimeThink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrimeThink)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1867 "2018-10-02T02:40:55Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > What do you mean by “fast enough”? Every EV on the market is perfectly capable of reaching the speed limit on any US highway. The Chevy Bolt does 0-60 in 6.3 seconds. That’s, what, within half a second of the Golf GTI? > > The Tesla Model-3 is faster, but with EVs, battery capacity affects performance, so the $40k version will likely be slower than the currently available configurations. I don’t really care about top speed, but acceleration does matter to me. The Bolt is one of the faster affordable EVs and 6.3 would be passable for me, although slower than my current and next gas car would be. I should have mentioned that the other main reason that I am not interested in any of current affordable offerings is that I am really not into the small hatchback style cars, which most of them seem to be. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1868 "2018-10-02T02:52:36Z")
What’s your current car? ---
**Author:** ![CrimeThink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/90db22/32.png) [@CrimeThink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrimeThink)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1869 "2018-10-02T03:12:08Z")
Currently a Maxima. I’m looking for my next one to be a sedan that is a bit smaller and most likely an AWD entry-level luxury car. A4, G70 or S60 are the type of cars that are appealing to me at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1870 "2018-10-02T04:04:05Z")
Incidentally, current preorder holders [are seeing estimates of 3-6 months until SR delivery](https://i.imgur.com/GPhWtev.jpg). Take that with a grain of salt, obviously. Their current delivery estimates are pretty close to the mark, but the SR battery is going to involve some new design and I could easily see some slip. I think **Ravenman** has maybe a 50/50 shot at getting his before August, but for a new preorder to get one before March I’d agree that the odds are close to zero. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1871 "2018-10-02T15:09:51Z")
> [@CrimeThink](#): > > I don’t really care about top speed, but acceleration does matter to me. The Bolt is one of the faster affordable EVs and 6.3 would be passable for me, although slower than my current and next gas car would be. Note that straight 0-60 times don’t often tell a complete story when comparing acceleration between gas engines and EVs. Take the Subaru BRZ for example. It’s 0-60 time was 6.3 seconds (per Car and Driver). Intuition tells you that it’s rolling start 5-60 should be less, right? Nope, it’s 5-60 time is **8.0 seconds**. This is because a rolling start 5-60 test is done with the engine starting at near idle conditions, wheras a 0-60 test is done with the engine RPM starting at near redline/peak power. It takes time (and torque) for an engine to spool sufficiently to reach peak power, and the BRZ just doesn’t have enough low-end torque to reach it’s power potential quickly. Unless you’re the type that likes to rev your engine to screaming conditions at every stoplight prior to dumping the clutch when it turns green, you’re probably not accessing all that power that the straight 0-60 time would imply. Even with a lead foot, your typical around town use is probably going to be much better approximated by the 5 - 60 test. The nice thing about EVs is that pretty much without exception, the 0-60 time and the rolling start 5-60 times are going to be identical, since there is no throttle lag, and gobs of low-end torque. You don’t have to determine ahead of time whether or not you want to launch your car (and annoy the driver next to you doing so), you just put the pedal down. This can cause EVs to feel much faster and more responsive than cars with similar (or better) 0-60 times, under most every day use conditions like merging onto a highway and passing (i.e, whenever you’re not actually at a dragstrip). [https://insideevs.com/the-rolling-start-a-better-ev-performance-metric/](https://insideevs.com/the-rolling-start-a-better-ev-performance-metric/) ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1872 "2018-10-02T16:23:51Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > This can cause EVs to feel much faster and more responsive than cars with similar (or better) 0-60 times, under most every day use conditions like merging onto a highway and passing (i.e, whenever you’re not actually at a dragstrip). Yes, exactly this. I had a whole post written out about how the Model 3 is faster differently than fast gas cars, but I didn’t post it, because I never felt I made the point. What you said exactly did. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1873 "2018-10-02T21:23:51Z")
Tesla [announced](http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries) their Q3 production/delivery numbers. Looking good: > [@](#): > > In Q3, we produced 80,142 vehicles, 50% more than our prior all-time high in Q2, including: > > ``` > 53,239 Model 3 vehicles, which was in line with our guidance and almost double the volume of Q2. During Q3, we transitioned Model 3 production from entirely rear wheel drive at the beginning of the quarter to almost entirely dual motor during the last few weeks of the quarter. This added significant complexity, but we successfully executed this transition and ultimately produced more dual motor than rear wheel drive cars in Q3. In the last week of the quarter, we produced over 5,300 Model 3 vehicles, almost all of which were dual motor, meaning that we achieved a production rate of more than 10,000 drive units per week. > 26,903 Model S and X vehicles, which was slightly higher than Q2 and in line with our full-year guidance. > > ``` > > Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. To put this in perspective, in just Q3, we delivered more than 80% of the vehicles that we delivered in all of 2017, and we delivered about twice as many Model 3s as we did in all previous quarters combined. This was actually right in line [with their Q2 estimates](http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712): > [@](#): > > We expect to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q3, which will represent an increase of 75% to 92% from the prior quarter. Who says Tesla never hits their targets? They’re just much better at projecting a quarter out than a year. They still need to demonstrate a profit–however, given the mix of high-spec models, they should be doing pretty well. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1874 "2018-10-02T21:32:48Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > Even with a lead foot, your typical around town use is probably going to be much better approximated by the 5 - 60 test. The test I want to see is one where the timer starts the instant the accelerator is touched. As you say, no one is sitting at stoplights with the engine at redline. BTW, the automatic brake hold is also nice. That makes it even faster at a stoplight, because I can hover my foot over the accelerator instead of moving it from the brake. None of that left-foot-brake launch control bullshit that some cars require. In the RWD, even at like 1/3 throttle, I’m usually through the intersection before other cars have even fully entered. Gas cars give me acceleration anxiety now. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1875 "2018-10-02T22:06:40Z")
> [@CrimeThink](#): > > I should have mentioned that the other main reason that I am not interested in any of current affordable offerings is that I am really not into the small hatchback style cars, which most of them seem to be. I don’t blame you. That’s the same (opposite) reason I have no interest in the Model-3: because I can’t imagine ever buying a sedan. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1876 "2018-10-02T22:16:57Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Tesla [announced](http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries) their Q3 production/delivery numbers. Looking good: Incidentally, Tesla just delivered 50% more Model 3s in a single quarter than the Chevy Bolt has _in its entire existence_ (55,840 vs. 35,683). Tesla killer indeed. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1877 "2018-10-03T00:29:25Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Incidentally, Tesla just delivered 50% more Model 3s in a single quarter than the Chevy Bolt has _in its entire existence_ (55,840 vs. 35,683). Tesla killer indeed. whence the smugness? you’re the only one in this thread who has ever used the phrase “Tesla Killer,” so you’re either arguing against a strawman, or just gloating. Which is pretty crass, since it’s about nothing you had anything to do with. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1878 "2018-10-03T00:46:18Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > whence the smugness? you’re the only one in this thread who has ever used the phrase “Tesla Killer,” so you’re either arguing against a strawman, or just gloating. Which is pretty crass, since it’s about nothing you had anything to do with. I’m not attacking anyone in this thread. “Tesla Killer” comes from the zillions of media reports about the Bolt. That said, there were some comments that look somewhat amusing in retrospect: > [@Pleonast](#): > > Someday Tesla might be able to compete with GM on electric cars, but until you can walk into a store and buy one with less than a week’s wait, it’s little to compare. I’m glad the Bolt exists. More than anything, I’m disappointed that GM hasn’t done anything in the past two years to make it more competitive. A “hot hatch” model would be fairly easy for them and generate a lot of interest. Really, I’m more annoyed with Bob Lutz again, who was on TV recently and kept repeating his claim that Tesla has no tech advantage in EVs. That’s obviously not the case. The Model 3 is at least a generation ahead over everyone else. That’s not a huge margin since the market is moving rapidly, but it’s pretty clear that Tesla will have an advantage for the next few years. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1879 "2018-10-03T00:51:14Z")
> [@](#): > > The Model 3 is at least a generation ahead over everyone else. in what way? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1880 "2018-10-03T01:10:46Z")
Lutz was speaking very generally, but for now I’ll ignore Autopilot, head unit design, OTA updates, etc. (where I also think they’re ahead). They’re a generation ahead in end-to-end efficiency. The i-Pace for instance is less efficient than a Model X, despite being substantially smaller (a 5-person crossover instead of a 7-person full-size SUV). The Model 3 is substantially ahead of the X, even accounting for its smaller size. The i-Pace should be only a few ticks behind the 3, being about the same size and just a little taller (CUV vs. sedan), but it only gets 350 W-h/mi vs. 250 for the 3. The Audi e-Tron is in roughly the same position. The battery is everything, obviously. It’s the dominant cost in the vehicle, and has a bunch of knock-on effects that come with it–handling from the weight difference, charge time, range, etc. So even small differences here are really amplified. This is on top of the cost advantage that Tesla already has with their pack design. They’re almost certainly getting close to $100/kW-h. That’s not to say that someone else can’t match or exceed Tesla one day–but the showings from GM, Jaguar and Audi aren’t there yet. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478/1881 "2018-10-03T01:51:21Z")
I would just like to note that I think the I Pace is a very good looking car, and I think the Model X is quite unattractive. And, those doors. Gah. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=93) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tesla-model-3-anticipation-thread/792478.md?page=95)