# Texas Barely GOP?!? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 14, 2016, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518 "2016-10-14T15:50:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/21 "2016-10-24T02:15:05Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > LOLOLOLOL. > > Remember the Good Old Days of 2013, when the Republican Party did an autopsy on itself, saying it had to cut out the overt bigotry? Turns out the voters in the party were in fact mad that the bigotry was so small. > > Best of luck to any conservatives who believe that the GOP will drop the bigotry in the future just because of the mere fact that the party will die if it doesn’t. You’re setting yourself up for a world of disappointment. Not a conservative but I bet it still happens to no small degree. A case study in evolution. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/22 "2016-10-24T02:23:11Z")
For our Canadian friends, remember what happened last year in Alberta (the Texas of Canada). Nothing is carved in stone. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/23 "2016-10-24T02:48:49Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > They’re not turning liberal anytime soon. That’s a given. Old school conservative would seem liberal at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/24 "2016-10-24T02:55:12Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > To add, naturally it would be a good thing in national elections, what with its large number of electoral votes. But the citizenry would by and large be the same. They’re not turning liberal anytime soon. The Texans you knew all those years ago do not represent every Texan living here now. I’m sorry you had a bad experience. ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/25 "2016-10-24T03:16:45Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > To add, naturally it would be a good thing in national elections, what with its large number of electoral votes. But the citizenry would by and large be the same. They’re not turning liberal anytime soon. It’s edging that way, actually. It’s slower than I’d like, and rural areas are lagging of course, but some of the old crap is eroding. It’s more generational than an electoral cycle shift; the most hopeful signs are among kids, teens, and twentysomethings. They’ve got plenty of naivete, but they also generally seem to care far less about the old divisions. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/26 "2016-10-24T04:22:07Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Texas being largely Republican has long been one of my beefs with the state, but really, I remember Texas when it was a steady Democratic state, and it was pretty much the same place. It won’t really matter if it does turn blue. Conservative whites who used to vote democrat who now vote republican wouldn’t have a huge impact on the culture. What could be shifting the politics of Texas is the same thing that shifted places like North Carolina & Virginia. Growth in urban areas Growth of minority groups Immigration from northern and western states among people with more liberal values Millennial youth who have different attitudes on economic and social issues Those 4 factors could move the state to the purple category the same way NC & VA moved around 2008. So in Texas (and Georgia) it isn’t just the rural whites switching parties, it is the demographics of the electorate changing. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/27 "2016-10-24T04:28:05Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > What could be shifting the politics of Texas is the same thing that shifted places like North Carolina & Virginia. > > Growth in urban areas > Growth of minority groups > Immigration from northern and western states among people with more liberal values > Millennial youth who have different attitudes on economic and social issues After the 2010 census, you had a number of smug people laughing at how northern industrial blue states lost some population. Well, now we know where they went 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/28 "2016-10-24T04:41:34Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Conservative whites who used to vote democrat who now vote republican wouldn’t have a huge impact on the culture. > > What could be shifting the politics of Texas is the same thing that shifted places like North Carolina & Virginia. > > Growth in urban areas > Growth of minority groups > Immigration from northern and western states among people with more liberal values > Millennial youth who have different attitudes on economic and social issues > > Those 4 factors could move the state to the purple category the same way NC & VA moved around 2008. > > So in Texas (and Georgia) it isn’t just the rural whites switching parties, it is the demographics of the electorate changing. I agree but would add a 5th factor for this election - Trump has alienated a significant chunk of religious conservatives in Texas who would typically vote GOP but reject him this time, as I mentioned up thread. The things you note are significant but if my point proves to be true it could be what tips the balance _now_ rather than it not happening until '20 or’24 as most pundits expect. ---
**Author:** ![LouisB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/dfb087/32.png) [@LouisB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LouisB)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/29 "2016-10-24T09:49:23Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Texas being largely Republican has long been one of my beefs with the state, but really, I remember Texas when it was a steady Democratic state, and it was pretty much the same place. It won’t really matter if it does turn blue. My thoughts exactly. Texas was SO Democratic Party that for years after it turned Republican I couldn’t believe it had happened. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/30 "2016-10-24T13:55:38Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > LOLOLOLOL. > > Remember the Good Old Days of 2013, when the Republican Party did an autopsy on itself, saying it had to cut out the overt bigotry? Turns out the voters in the party were in fact mad that the bigotry was so small. > > Best of luck to any conservatives who believe that the GOP will drop the bigotry in the future just because of the mere fact that the party will die if it doesn’t. You’re setting yourself up for a world of disappointment. Well, yeah. My point wasn’t that they were going to drop it, but rather that the Hispanic (really more the Mexican-American) voter base is sort of inherently conservative by nature, but that the Texas Republicans have painted themselves as the “angry white people’s party”, and that said otherwise conservative Hispanics vote Democrat due to the perceived threat from Republicans. In other words, many might vote Republican, except for the Republicans portraying themselves as specifically anti-Hispanic. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/31 "2016-10-24T14:21:23Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Well, yeah. My point wasn’t that they were going to drop it, but rather that the Hispanic (really more the Mexican-American) voter base is sort of inherently conservative by nature, but that the Texas Republicans have painted themselves as the “angry white people’s party”, and that said otherwise conservative Hispanics vote Democrat due to the perceived threat from Republicans. In other words, many might vote Republican, except for the Republicans portraying themselves as specifically anti-Hispanic. Yes, that was one thing the Bushes did have right since back in 41’s time - that the Latino communities were a potential source of “values voters” if they felt welcomed. But the Party allowed itself to go from being Conservatives to being Reactionaries, because the Angry White Guy bloc was large enough to win primaries and enough other people were willing to vote for Anyone But The “Liberal”, to be in play to win the generals. Took Trump to start convincing some people that the World will not end, the dead will not walk, if you fail to vote for Whoever Has The “R”. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/32 "2016-10-24T14:56:37Z")
> [@LouisB](#): > > My thoughts exactly. Texas was SO Democratic Party that for years after it turned Republican I couldn’t believe it had happened. If the median voter in a state goes from conservative Democrat to conservative Republican, not much has changed by the label. If the media voter goes from conservative Republican to moderate Republican or moderate Democrat, a lot has changed. This change is the latter, while the change in the 1990s was the former. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/33 "2016-10-24T18:51:57Z")
In an earlier thread that I’m too lazy to hunt down, I promised to let Dopers vote on which charity I should contribute $500 to, if Texas should give its electoral votes to Hillary this year. I meant that, and still do, which is why I’m bringing it up again here. At the time, though, I figured my money was pretty safe. Maybe it’s not as safe as it was, but that’s a _good_ thing. So Texas Dopers, go vote, and make me cough up $500! Unlike a certain Presidential candidate, I’ll actually pay up without having to be shamed into it by David Fahrenthold. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/34 "2016-10-24T19:09:39Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > After the 2010 census, you had a number of smug people laughing at how northern industrial blue states lost some population. Well, now we know where they went 😛 Exactly. Some years ago much was made of the growth of the Sun Belt compared with the Rust Belt, and that would strengthen Republicans as the southern states gained population and Electoral Votes. What they failed to realize was that many of the new immigrants brought more liberal values with them. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/35 "2016-10-24T19:57:59Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I pointed this out in another thread, but I’ve lived in Texas my entire life (I’m 44), and this is the FIRST time that I can recall, and certainly the first time as a voting adult that I remember seeing TV ads for Democratic presidential candidates. > > Plus, in most elections, the Republican candidate’s signs are everywhere, usually obnoxiously so. > > Trump signs are as thin on the ground as Hillary ones, which seems somehow telling as well. I suspect only the arch-conservative types who are convinced that Hillary is the Anti-Christ and voting for Trump, odious as he is, is still preferable. Yep, this is the first time I’ve seen Dem presidential ads on local media. The Trump supporters might have more signs in their yard, but they seem close to being balanced in raw numbers of supporters by Hilliary signs. I’ve had to keep my eye out to see bumper stickers or yard signs endorsing either. That leads me to thinking that the polling is right, and Texas might actually be a toss-up. Now, my BIL had to deal with a bunch of Trump supporters with white supremacist tattoos and Confederate flags blocking traffic with an impromptu Trump rally in Arlington yesterday. However, I suspect that group may have limited voting rights due to their probable criminal histories. (Seriously, have you ever seen someone with a white supremacist tattoo that _hadn’t_ committed a felony?) The closest comparison I can come to the current presidential election for Texas is Ann Richards Vs. Clayton Williams in 90. Rich, flamboyant, idiotic candidate vs. a seasoned politician, and the politician squeaks it out. Ann positively dripped personality where Hillary doesn’t, but Trump’s a more flagrant idiot than even Clayton Williams. On the ground in one of the redder large cities in Texas, it looks like Hilliary very well might win it, but it’s a toss-up. It hasn’t looked that way before. **RTFirefly** , if it happens, I’d like my 5 bills to go to the ACLU. My wife’s gonna vote for the same candidate, so does that mean you gotta cough up a grand if my dreams come true? 😃 (naw, she’s not a SDMB member) ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/36 "2016-10-24T20:45:42Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I checked electoral-vote this morning, and Texas is showing “Barely GOP”. > > I know, it’s a polling aggregator, not a prediction site like 538, but it’s the trend line that is amazing. > > Since last spring, Texas was showing as “Strongly GOP” (dark red), right up to September 20. > > [ElectoralVote](http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep20.html) > > Then in September 21 it slipped to “Weakly GOP” (pink). > > [ElectoralVote](http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep21.html) > > Today, it’s “Barely GOP” (pink outline). > > [http://www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) > > Sure, still highly unlikely that Texas will flip, but it shows how Trump support is cratering. There is an old saying about Texas: a Texas democrat is a republican in any other state. Just because democrats are gaining numerically, it will be a very cold day in Midland before Texas votes for a democratic president-IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/37 "2016-10-24T20:52:18Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Kolak of Twilo** : > > It won’t surprise me if a significant % of Baptists in Texas do the same, vote for McMullin or simply don’t vote at all. It looks like he’s not on the ballot in Texas, more’s the pity. He might still get some write-ins, but I suspect that Johnson is going to be the default conservative protest vote in Texas. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/38 "2016-10-24T21:20:18Z")
Which would mirror what happened in Alberta: the right-wing Wild Rose party eroded the based of the center-right Progressive Conservative party, leaving left-ish New Labor to take the majority of seats and gain control. For as long as that lasts. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/39 "2016-10-24T22:07:04Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I agree but would add a 5th factor for this election - Trump has alienated a significant chunk of religious conservatives in Texas who would typically vote GOP but reject him this time, as I mentioned up thread. > > The things you note are significant but if my point proves to be true it could be what tips the balance _now_ rather than it not happening until '20 or’24 as most pundits expect. Could be, I know this is a huge issue in Utah where many GOPers are not comfortable voting for Trump. If the core reason is religious people turned off by Trump, then sadly Texas in '16 is just a blip and in '20 it goes back to being a red state unless democrats start registering latinos there. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/40 "2016-10-25T00:52:43Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > Yep, this is the first time I’ve seen Dem presidential ads on local media. The Trump supporters might have more signs in their yard, but they seem close to being balanced in raw numbers of supporters by Hilliary signs. I’ve had to keep my eye out to see bumper stickers or yard signs endorsing either. That leads me to thinking that the polling is right, and Texas might actually be a toss-up. > Now, my BIL had to deal with a bunch of Trump supporters with white supremacist tattoos and Confederate flags blocking traffic with an impromptu Trump rally in Arlington yesterday. However, I suspect that group may have limited voting rights due to their probable criminal histories. (Seriously, have you ever seen someone with a white supremacist tattoo that _hadn’t_ committed a felony?) > > The closest comparison I can come to the current presidential election for Texas is Ann Richards Vs. Clayton Williams in 90. Rich, flamboyant, idiotic candidate vs. a seasoned politician, and the politician squeaks it out. Ann positively dripped personality where Hillary doesn’t, but Trump’s a more flagrant idiot than even Clayton Williams. On the ground in one of the redder large cities in Texas, it looks like Hilliary very well might win it, but it’s a toss-up. It hasn’t looked that way before. > > **RTFirefly** , if it happens, I’d like my 5 bills to go to the ACLU. My wife’s gonna vote for the same candidate, so does that mean you gotta cough up a grand if my dreams come true? 😃 (naw, she’s not a SDMB member) Can you not vote in Texas if you have a felony on your record? I know people think that about NY too, but in fact you can. You just can’t be in prison, or on parole for a felony conviction. Having one in your past really isn’t a problem. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518.md?page=3)