# Texas Barely GOP?!? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 14, 2016, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518 "2016-10-14T15:50:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/41 "2016-10-25T01:23:10Z")
> [@Honey](#): > > Can you not vote in Texas if you have a felony on your record? I know people think that about NY too, but in fact you can. You just can’t be in prison, or on parole for a felony conviction. Having one in your past really isn’t a problem. It looks like Texas is a state that [automatically restores franchise](http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights.aspx) upon completion of sentence+parole+probation. But, \*Even in states where ex-offenders automatically regain the right to vote upon completion of their sentence, the process of re-registering to vote often is difficult. One reason is the complexity of the laws and processes surrounding disenfranchisement… It often involves lengthy paperwork, burdensome documentation, and the involvement and coordination of several state agencies. A second barrier to restoration of voting rights for ex-offenders is the often inconsistent communication among agencies… Ex-offenders sometimes are not aware that they regain their voting rights automatically upon completion of their sentence… A final obstacle is under-funding of parole boards in some states where offenders must apply to have their rights restored. A massive backlog of applications can exist …\* So, although the law says they get their vote back, the reality may be very different. ---
**Author:** ![syncrolecyne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f08c70/32.png) [@syncrolecyne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/syncrolecyne)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/42 "2016-10-25T01:28:08Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I think there’s a misconception in the thinking that all Hispanics are staunch, dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. As a group, they’re pretty traditional and conservative (in a broad sense, not a political sense), and the Republicans would find fertile ground there, if they could stop discriminating against them so much. Indeed, they did during the George W. Bush years as governor and president. Those days are long gone now. ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/43 "2016-10-25T01:29:14Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > In an earlier thread that I’m too lazy to hunt down, I promised to let Dopers vote on which charity I should contribute $500 to, if Texas should give its electoral votes to Hillary this year. > > I meant that, and still do, which is why I’m bringing it up again here. At the time, though, I figured my money was pretty safe. Maybe it’s not as safe as it was, but that’s a _good_ thing. So Texas Dopers, go vote, and make me cough up $500! > > Unlike a certain Presidential candidate, I’ll actually pay up without having to be shamed into it by David Fahrenthold. Planned Parenthood ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/44 "2016-10-25T01:34:31Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > It looks like Texas is a state that [automatically restores franchise](http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights.aspx) upon completion of sentence+parole+probation. But, > \*Even in states where ex-offenders automatically regain the right to vote upon completion of their sentence, the process of re-registering to vote often is difficult. One reason is the complexity of the laws and processes surrounding disenfranchisement… It often involves lengthy paperwork, burdensome documentation, and the involvement and coordination of several state agencies. > > A second barrier to restoration of voting rights for ex-offenders is the often inconsistent communication among agencies… Ex-offenders sometimes are not aware that they regain their voting rights automatically upon completion of their sentence… > > A final obstacle is under-funding of parole boards in some states where offenders must apply to have their rights restored. A massive backlog of applications can exist …\* > So, although the law says they get their vote back, the reality may be very different. New York makes it easy. A friend has a felony from about 10 years ago and registered to vote at the end of September. He applied online through the DMV website, and just received his voter card. He didn’t need any additional paperwork. I bet there are a lot of people who think they aren’t eligible to vote, so they don’t even try. That’s sad. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 7:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/45 "2016-10-25T07:19:53Z")
I checked the Texas[Secretary of State’s website](http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/effects.shtml) on felons regaining their right to vote. Once you’ve received your “final” conviction of a felony, you can’t vote. However, you regain it “automatically” upon finishing your sentence–including probation, parole, etc Regaining the right to _run_ for office can be a bit more complex. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/46 "2016-10-25T10:02:36Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > **RTFirefly** , if it happens, I’d like my 5 bills to go to the ACLU. My wife’s gonna vote for the same candidate, so does that mean you gotta cough up a grand if my dreams come true? 😃 (naw, she’s not a SDMB member) > [@Shalmanese](#): > > Planned Parenthood Patience, folks! If Texas goes Dem (and let’s not count our chickens!), I’ll open a thread on November 9. I’d probably do an initial thread to solicit nominations, and then a thread for the actual voting. ---
**Author:** ![Victor\_Charlie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/7ea924/32.png) [@Victor\_Charlie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Victor_Charlie)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/47 "2016-10-25T10:23:24Z")
Texas won’t turn blue this year, but it’s closer than a lot of Republicans are willing to admit, especially if they don’t get their house in order. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/48 "2016-10-25T10:27:59Z")
Agree with Victor’s post above. It won’t happen this year, but this is a fire alarm in the middle of the night. At the same time, I think democrats need to double down on efforts at the grassroots level and figure out what kind of party they’re going to be and what kind of message they’re going to have. They have opportunities to take Texas and Arizona by reaching out to minority voters with a progressive message. But make no mistake: the republicans are going to go full on in vote suppression. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/49 "2016-10-25T11:58:15Z")
> [@syncrolecyne](#): > > Indeed, they did during the George W. Bush years as governor and president. > Those days are long gone now. [Top Hispanic Republican king-maker, the most influential Hispanic Republican in the state of TX, owner of the largest Hispanic-oriented media company in the state](https://www.texastribune.org/2016/10/24/top-hispanic-republican-texas-will-vote-clinton/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1477364533), endorses Hillary Clinton, leaves GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/50 "2016-10-25T17:56:54Z")
Indiana was a battleground state in 2008 and then went back to fairly red in 2012. Will Texas do the same or will it stay purple like North Carolina? Is Trump running a fluke election or is Texas moving leftward? Assume Hillary wins national polls by ten but loses Texas by three. That means the state is thirteen points to the right of national results In 2012 Obama won the national vote by 4 and lost Texas by 16. So a twenty point margin. So Texas seems to have reduced its gop margin by 1/3, going from a 20 point gop margin to 13. Is that due to demographics and voters registration drives or just trumps unpopularity? If whites drop to 50% of Texan voters the state should turn purple. They were 63% in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Randolph](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Randolph](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Randolph)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/51 "2016-10-25T18:17:22Z")
Nothing is permanent. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/52 "2016-10-25T18:26:03Z")
The other thread over here: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=807320](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=807320) has some longer demographics discussion already. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/53 "2016-10-25T19:10:29Z")
Similar threads merged. Go get 'em. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/54 "2016-10-27T14:56:18Z")
And today, Texas is back to being pink: “Likely Republican”. > **[ElectoralVote](https://electoral-vote.com/)** > > Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. ---
**Author:** ![Duke\_of\_Rat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Duke\_of\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke_of_Rat)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/55 "2016-10-27T16:40:34Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > I suspect it’s more a matter of Texas being “just barely Trump” rather than being “just barely Republican”. That’s what I pointed out in another thread. My county has almost 20% non-white population, yet Obama only got 11% of the vote last election. People are looking at this purlpeing of Texas and thinking it’s some demographic shift, it’s because the Republican nominee is a blithering idiot. 538 or one of those predictive sites has the county as +25 blue over 2012, I find it hard to believe this is because of a demographics shift - it’s because Trump is even more unpopular than Hillary. Texas didn’t have some massive blue shift since Romney, it’s just that Trump is widely viewed as a fuckhead. ---
**Author:** ![Snupzilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/54ee81/32.png) [@Snupzilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snupzilla)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/56 "2016-10-28T03:10:31Z")
Another thing going against Trump in the state besides race is that white demographics aren’t particular friendly for him. White Texans are generally more educated than in other similar red states and the white working class is smaller and weaker politically. The cities and suburbs in Texas are increasingly full of middle class professionals that aren’t particularity conservative and even less excited about a populist cretin like Trump. The Texas GOP may seem like its run by idiots (many are) but it is this massive juggernaut because the people who run it generally know what they are doing (for better but usually worse). The establishment run the state and they are well aware of the dangers of alienating Hispanics and losing big business as an ally with anti-trade hysteria and racist speech. They will blow the dog whistles to get out the redneck vote but they’e not dumb enough to hand them the keys to the party. The urban white working class is fairly small and almost a non-factor politically. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/57 "2016-10-28T03:34:23Z")
Do you have a cite for that? Texas looks pretty average for total population education levels but I guess the white population could be particularly high. It is majority minority so I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/58 "2016-10-28T03:39:41Z")
> [@Duke\_of\_Rat](#): > > Texas didn’t have some massive blue shift since Romney, it’s just that Trump is widely viewed as a fuckhead. I have a suspicion that the vote for President will be pretty close, since Trump is not highly thought of. But the Legislature and Congressional races will likely stay as red as ever, as well as the judiciary elections. ---
**Author:** ![cornflakes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9d8465/32.png) [@cornflakes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cornflakes)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/59 "2016-10-28T03:44:39Z")
I think that a lot of women here in Texas are also fed up with the Republican treatment of abortion rights, student testing and a variety of other issues. Pink running shoes are still a fashion accessory, thanks to Wendy Davis’ filibuster against a ban on abortions after 20 months and to create additional barriers to abortion (Gov Rick Perry later called a special session to reintroduce and pass the bill.) Mandatory student testing is being rolled back and is being increasingly seen as both pork and as a barrier to learning (Months were spent teaching the test and neglecting the curriculum.) I get the sense that Trump’s attitude towards women is rubbing salt in the wounds. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518/60 "2016-10-28T10:31:45Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I checked electoral-vote this morning, and Texas is showing “Barely GOP”. Barely GOP or barely Trump? There’s a difference. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-barely-gop/768518.md?page=4)