# Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont - March 4th, 2008 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 20, 2008, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410 "2008-02-20T20:02:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/181 "2008-03-04T01:40:24Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I hate to be the voice of gloom, but I think Hillary wins TX, OH, and RI and goes on to win the nomination. The latest polls have shown a shift in her favor over the past few days. I think the negative ads are working for her. [/QUOTE] It’s possible, but I have to admit Obama’s got some strong momentum going for him. He’s in the lead, but the race is not over yet. At least this election is not a snoozefest after NH like the others were. Gawd, I hate fucking NH. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/182 "2008-03-04T01:55:03Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] Gawd, I hate fucking NH. [/QUOTE] She said you weren’t so hot in bed yourself, bucko. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/183 "2008-03-04T02:05:59Z")
[QUOTE=cricetus] I wonder how much the “wanting it to be over” factor will play out tomorrow. Also the “ah, it’s no use” factor, with Clinon backers. What time do the polls close? Will we know tomorrow night what’s happened? [/QUOTE] 7pm CST for Texas. All others 8pm EST IIRC. Yes, we will know tomorrow night. I’m starting another thread on the theme of HRC dragging this on. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/184 "2008-03-04T02:09:29Z")
Since they’ll all close at the same time… and not too late. Good, thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/185 "2008-03-04T03:01:05Z")
[QUOTE=cricetus] Since they’ll all close at the same time… and not too late. Good, thanks. [/QUOTE] 7:30 Eastern in Ohio. And don’t forget the caucus in Texas (worth about 1/3 of the delegates) starts after the polls close there. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/186 "2008-03-04T03:19:26Z")
Bad news for Obama: the weather in Ohio tomorrow is gonna suck. As I type, it’s sleeting against the window, and it’s expected to be about 33 with rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow all day tomorrow. That’s not the sort of weather that the poorer people turn out in in great numbers. Remains to be seen whether or not the younger people will turn out in it. Got a lovely attack ad from Clinton’s campaign in the mailbox today, accusing Obama of doing nothing when a Maytag or Whirlpool plant or some such closed in Illinois. Of course, it doesn’t say what he was supposed to have done, and it doesn’t say what Clinton has done when large plants in New York have closed the last few years. Timed nicely it is. Feh. I hate politics when it gets stupid. :mad: ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/187 "2008-03-04T03:35:40Z")
[QUOTE=DSYoungEsq] Bad news for Obama: the weather in Ohio tomorrow is gonna suck. As I type, it’s sleeting against the window, and it’s expected to be about 33 with rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow all day tomorrow. That’s not the sort of weather that the poorer people turn out in in great numbers. Remains to be seen whether or not the younger people will turn out in it. [/QUOTE] Obama’s crowd is traditionally the higher paid set and the college kids. Granted college kids aren’t rolling in cash but they’re not what I’d consider the “poorer people”. Wisconsin was cold and miserable on election day as was Maine and both showed excellent turn outs for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/188 "2008-03-04T03:37:32Z")
Clinton so far has done better with older voters; will they want to go out in such crappy weather? ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/189 "2008-03-04T03:53:12Z")
Check out [this article from CNN](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/03/texas.hispanics/index.html) looking at how Texas Hispanics view Clinton and Obama. That demographic’s not necessarily monolithically hers, it appears: > [@](#): > > A day before the critical election, the state’s 3.6 million eligible Hispanic voters could tip the balance in delegate-rich Texas toward Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. But they’re deeply divided. > > “Don’t get me wrong, I love Hillary Clinton,” said Manuel Hernandez over his morning coffee and huevos rancheros. "But she just doesn’t attract me the way that Barack Obama does. > > [snip] > > Voter surveys suggest Obama may be chipping away at Clinton’s domination of the Hispanic vote. > > A recent Gallup poll of eligible Hispanic voters nationwide showed Obama not only erasing a 31-point gap against Clinton in just a week, but taking the lead by 4 percentage points. > > Clinton led Obama 63 percent to 32 percent in the poll’s results from February 5-9. But by February 13-17, Obama had taken the lead 50 percent to 46 percent. > > The tracking poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, surveyed about 2,000 eligible Democratic voters. > > [snip] > > Austin has seen much economic change in past decades, such as when the home of the University of Texas added semi-conductor and software businesses along with computer giant Dell, earning the nickname “Silicon Hills.” Local Democratic officials described the city’s economy as “vibrant,” pointing out new home construction in East Austin as evidence. > > During this decade, Texas is seeing a generational change in its political landscape, said Fero, as a new and larger generation of Hispanics has come of voting age in time for this critical primary. > > “The more voters you have, the closer the contest,” said Fero, who’s not allied with either Clinton or Obama. “We’re in real uncharted territory here.” > > State Rep. Juan Garcia, an Obama supporter in heavily Hispanic South Texas, agreed that “without a doubt there is a generational piece to this thing.” > > Voters at Cisco’s also said they were seeing more interest among younger Hispanic voters than during any election in memory. > > Ten days of early voting, which ended on Friday, has already resulted in heavy turnout compared to 2004 – including many traditionally Hispanic precincts, according to unofficial returns. Texas’ most populous 15 counties showed ten times more Democrats showing up to cast ballots early than four years ago, according to the secretary of state’s Web site. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 8:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/190 "2008-03-04T08:56:03Z")
_NOTE: Don’t hate me for being correct. I don’t like it either._ I hope beating Hillary for the nomination will be enough of a “moral victory” for the Obama supporters. Because when it comes down to the general election, Obama doesn’t have a shot in hell against almost anyone the GOP could cough up, much less an Old White Man who is also a certified, big-time war hero. I first brought this up\* [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=415324) and [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=432565) a while ago in these fora and yes, it depresses me too. Still, the fact remains that when voters are all alone in the privacy of the booth not enough of them will be ready to vote for a black candidate. Yes, one will get elected someday. Yes, it’s high-time. Yes, a black can’t get elected if he (or she) doesn’t run. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. I would greatly prefer Obama over Clinton and I would prefer him over John McCain by a mile. But all of the shiny, happy, liberal optimism on an internet message-board that is light-years apart from the American mainstream (apart = ahead in this instance, IMO) just doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Sorry. If it’s any consolation, Hillary couldn’t have beaten McCain (or Giuliani, or Thompson, or Romney) either. But that just makes this even more pathetic. It’s so utterly obvious and predictable. Come the day after the election, Democrats everywhere will ask the question that is starting to get real old: What The Hell Were We Thinking? Yes, yes, I know. The Will Of The People and all that. And, “but… but… Obama was duly elected! We couldn’t have done anything anyway!!!” Horseshit. Most of you realize that the party honchos have a great deal of power to influence who gets nominated. It is scandalous that a Republican will be allowed… no, aided and abetted… no, willfully paraded into the White House on a red carpet by clueless Democrats who should certainly know better by now. Obama is a fine man. I would love to see him elected, so I hope I’m wrong. Please all you Knuckle-dragging, racist, Fox News hypnotized, mouth-breathing simpletons of Middle America prove me wrong! But NO, they will say. “We’re at WAR so we need a MAN with little-brown-people-killin’ experience!!!” and “WWJD? Never elect a li’l woman or a NEE-gro!!! THAT’s what!!!” Did you here at the SDMB know that the _Jerry Springer Show_ viewers get to vote too? And that they DO? Sigh… oh well. I wish I could feel better about this by predicting it, but it’s so damn obvious, so damn preventable, and so damn destructive to this country, that I don’t. I just feel sick. \*Admittedly, back then I saw the nomination going to Hillary, not Barrack but both of these threads were about the inherent impossibility of \*either \*being elected. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/191 "2008-03-04T11:18:11Z")
[QUOTE=Jonathan Chance] Brief, parenthetical aside… Everyone sucks. My political reporters and I have barely slept for two weeks. We’ve met both Obamas, all THREE Clintons, and on Friday HRCs Deputy Chief of Staff just ‘dropped into’ the newsroom saying he was just walking down our main street and saw our newspaper and wanted to say ‘hi!’. He had with him the Mayor of a town in New York and the President of a business that HRC protected from overseas competition. We’re exhausted and want it to be over. Just over. - Jonathan “Owns a newspaper in Ohio” Chance [/QUOTE] Sounds like a case of “be careful what you wish for,” my friend. You bought a newspaper, and you got big stories to cover. It’s your heart’s desire! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/192 "2008-03-04T14:16:28Z")
[QUOTE=I Love Me, Vol. I] I just feel sick. [/quote] With all the ugly stereotypes you’re putting out there, I’m not surprised. ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/193 "2008-03-04T14:35:57Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] With all the ugly stereotypes you’re putting out there, I’m not surprised. [/QUOTE] Seriously. If a Black man (or a White woman) can beat the other White men in the primaries, then he can beat one in the general. Unless racism is confined to the Republican party. In which case, they probably wouldn’t be voting for the whitest white Democrat from Vanilla City anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/194 "2008-03-04T15:24:57Z")
Turning back to the Rhotexhiont primary, I think he gets Texas and Vermont while she gets the other two (her rhetoric indicates she doesn’t expect to win Texas anyway). The press covers the story as “Clinton stops Obama’s momentum” and the race drags on. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/195 "2008-03-04T15:27:34Z")
[sup]I believe Obama is going to surprise people and hold a strong lead.[/sup] ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/196 "2008-03-04T15:41:28Z")
Depends on what you mean by surprise. I think his lead is going to be essentially unchanged, particularly with the extra caucuses in Texas. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/197 "2008-03-04T15:52:09Z")
Final predictions from The Daily Kos: Ohio: Clinton +4 Texas: Obama +12 Rhode Island: Clinton +6 Vermont: Obama +35 ---
**Author:** ![Aguecheek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9adbd/32.png) [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/198 "2008-03-04T18:45:34Z")
Seems she’s taken another page from the Bush playbook. Clinton is running fake news ads in Ohio: [link.](http://weblogs.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/politics/blog/2008/03/latest_clinton_tactic_fake_new.html) > [@Clinton "News" Spot](#): > > “This is an election news update with a major news story reported by the AP. While Senator Obama has crisscrossed Ohio giving speeches attacking NAFTA, his top economic advisor was telling the Canadians that was all just political maneuvering. A newly released document from the Canadian government shows that Obama’s senior economic advisor met with the Canadian Consul General and made clear that Obama’s attack on NAFTA were just, quote, “political maneuvering,” not policy. Political maneuvering, not policy. In fact, the document shows that Obama’s advisor also assured the Canadians that these attacks against NAFTA would not continue. Obama would not want to be, quote, “fundamentally changing the agreement.” As Senator Obama was telling one story to Ohio, his campaign was telling a very different story to Canada. How will Ohioans decide whether they can believe Senator Obama’s words? We’ll find that out on election day. Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President.” Is Newsday a reputable site? Huffingtonpost linked to it. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/199 "2008-03-04T18:46:11Z")
[More wackiness from Ohio](http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/03/04/screwy-ohio-ballots.aspx): > [@](#): > > We’ll see if tonight’s result is tight enough for it to make a difference, but the way the vote is administered in Ohio is a big mess, thanks to still-unresolved efforts to reform the ballot technology after 2000 and 2004’s chaos. You can find a (rather technical) explanation of the problems here, but perhaps the most unfortunate situation is that apparently (Ohioans out there, let me know if I’ve got this wrong) the paper ballots have a stub along the bottom that says “Vote Will Not Be Counted If Removed” – except that it actually does have to be removed, and the poll workers’ manual instructs election workers to tell voters to tear it off, provoking alarm among those voters whose elementary school teachers taught them to follow simple written instructions. From Ohio Daily Blog: > > > [@](#): > > > > I have heard reports that the poll workers can be less than clear in explaining what is happening (saying “No, I don’t know why” and “Yeah, that confuses us too” and such). > > Who designs these systems? Yeesh. ---
**Author:** ![SpartanDC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b2d939/32.png) [@SpartanDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpartanDC)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/200 "2008-03-04T19:12:49Z")
[QUOTE=silenus] Final predictions from The Daily Kos: Ohio: Clinton +4 Texas: Obama +12 Rhode Island: Clinton +6 Vermont: Obama +35 [/QUOTE] Kos himself admits most of his projections are based on gut-level instinct, but in this post he also said his Texas projection, which doesn’t square with any recent poll, is based on actual data of some kind. Speculation is that he knows something about the early voting totals. Also, Obama’s ground game in Texas is supposed to be unreal – in previous states, it’s won credit for allowing him to outperform the polls by an average of 8 points or so. This Obama supporter is more nervous though. That said, mathematically, I don’t see how Clinton ever overtakes him, especially with Obama set to announce endorsements from [50 superdelegates](http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/4/10402/50272/310/468529) tomorrow. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=11)