# Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont - March 4th, 2008 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 20, 2008, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410 "2008-02-20T20:02:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/61 "2008-02-28T00:39:40Z")
[QUOTE=Harborwolf] Agreed. Clinton isn’t even out of the race yet. I’m not going to celebrate his victory until the absolute last vote is counted. [/QUOTE] That may be, but I equate Obama to the Giants. Work, work, work, work Prize. There’s wins and loses along the way but he’s got is eye on the prize. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/62 "2008-02-28T02:19:22Z")
Hillary should win in TX and Ohio, abd she’s likely hoping for a big win. That big win used to be a foregone conclusion, but Obama is doing better in those states. Note that HRC is only behind by less than 100 delegates, and there’s still close to 400 Superdelagates unpledged. 1/4 of those get behind HRC and she’s in the lead. :eek: It’s looking like a brokered deal at the Con more and more. I think Hillary would do better in any sort of brokered deal. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/63 "2008-02-28T02:25:36Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] Note that HRC is only behind by less than 100 delegates, and there’s still close to 400 Superdelagates unpledged. 1/4 of those get behind HRC and she’s in the lead. :eek: [/QUOTE] Hey, man, if only one quarter of those delegates get behind HRC, I think BO will consider it good news indeed. ---
**Author:** ![elmwood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmwood/32/3060_2.png) [@elmwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elmwood)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/64 "2008-02-28T02:28:49Z")
In the suburban of Cleveland where I live, all I’m seeing are Obama signs on front lawns … and the odd Ron Paul signs mounted illegally on utility poles here and there. I’m an Obama fan. My girlfriend is canceling out my vote thanks to classic identity politics; she supports Clinton mainly because of her gender. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/65 "2008-02-28T02:56:59Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] Hillary should win in TX and Ohio [/QUOTE] Ohio is still in the air but Obama is leading in Texas now both in the polls and in how the state will allocate delegates. I don’t see her even carrying the popular vote there and almost certainly not a delegate victory. Forget about a “huge” victory. Ohio she can still perhaps pull off but, delegate-wise, you’re probably looking at an essential tie. And, without Texas, her “large state” case is blown. ---
**Author:** ![Harborwolf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@Harborwolf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Harborwolf)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/66 "2008-02-28T03:19:30Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] Ohio is still in the air but Obama is leading in Texas now both in the polls and in how the state will allocate delegates. I don’t see her even carrying the popular vote there and almost certainly not a delegate victory. Forget about a “huge” victory. Ohio she can still perhaps pull off but, delegate-wise, you’re probably looking at an essential tie. And, without Texas, her “large state” case is blown. [/QUOTE] [She’s already hedged her bets on that.](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/22/clinton-says-again-florida-and-michigan-votes-should-count/) > [@](#): > > She said that, **unlike Texas,** both Florida and Michigan were critical to any Democratic victory, and that because “the people of those two states disregarded adamantly the DNC’s decision that they would not seat the delegates” and turned out in record numbers, the party should not invalidate their votes. Expect her to argue, should she lose Texas but win Ohio, that winning Texas isn’t important since it tends to be a red state in the general election. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/67 "2008-02-28T03:54:42Z")
[QUOTE=Harborwolf] [She’s already hedged her bets on that.](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/22/clinton-says-again-florida-and-michigan-votes-should-count/) Expect her to argue, should she lose Texas but win Ohio, that winning Texas isn’t important since it tends to be a red state in the general election. [/QUOTE] Too late: Quoth HRC: “I’d love to carry Texas, but it’s usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee. Florida and Michigan are.” ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/68 "2008-02-28T04:32:07Z")
And here I thought that Texas was super-important not because of its red/blue status but because it had a lot of delegates for Clinton to scoop up. I guess if the Bush administration taught us (and Clinton) anything, it’s that it’s easier to play the game when you keep moving the goal posts. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/69 "2008-02-28T12:28:10Z")
[QUOTE=Merkwurdigliebe] Too late: Quoth HRC: “I’d love to carry Texas, but it’s usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee. Florida and Michigan are.” [/QUOTE] That’s a little out of context though … that was regarding her argument for seating MI and FL and was talking about the general. Specious, yes, but not moving the goal post in the TX primary. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/70 "2008-02-28T13:49:13Z")
If Obama takes TX, RI, VT and it’s tied in OH - I’d expect a concession. If he sweeps, I’d count on one. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/71 "2008-02-28T14:19:24Z")
I second that. A loss in Ohio is fatal, a loss in Texas and a narrow win in Ohio might make her plod on to Pennsylvania. She has to be thinking 2012. If McCain beats Obama, she’s primed to once again be the odds on favorite to be the next nominee. If keeping the 2008 fight alive appears to threaten her 2012 prospects, she’ll give it up. ---
**Author:** ![Pithy\_Moniker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8dc957/32.png) [@Pithy\_Moniker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pithy_Moniker)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/72 "2008-02-28T14:20:04Z")
edit: Nevermind I goofed ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/73 "2008-02-28T14:22:06Z")
Great, now I got nothing to say. I forget which thread it was in, but somebody had Clinton with a big lead in RI. If she loses the other states and wins that, it prevents a sweep, but I don’t think it keeps her in the race. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/74 "2008-02-28T14:34:05Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] Great, now I got nothing to say. I forget which thread it was in, but somebody had Clinton with a big lead in RI. If she loses the other states and wins that, it prevents a sweep, but I don’t think it keeps her in the race. [/QUOTE] It wouldn’t keep her in the race. I’m campaigning in RI this weekend heavily. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/75 "2008-02-28T15:21:24Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] Great, now I got nothing to say. I forget which thread it was in, but somebody had Clinton with a big lead in RI. If she loses the other states and wins that, it prevents a sweep, but I don’t think it keeps her in the race. [/QUOTE] I posted that; I forget in which of the many Obama/Clinton threads in GD. Don’t forget, Rhode Island’s big brother to the north, Massachusetts, was a solid win for Clinton early on. I haven’t seen any recent polls showing whether there’s now a shift toward Obama in the Bay State. Still, if Clinton loses Texas (very possible) and Vermont (a lock), essentially ties in Ohio and wins handily in RI, I look forward to witnessing her attempts to spin the Ocean State triumph into a national mandate. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/76 "2008-02-28T15:34:45Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] And here I thought that Texas was super-important not because of its red/blue status but because it had a lot of delegates for Clinton to scoop up. I guess if the Bush administration taught us (and Clinton) anything, it’s that it’s easier to play the game when you keep moving the goal posts. [/QUOTE] One thing Texas \*\*can \*\* do is provide a lot of money to the eventual Dem nominee. Sure, I know Texas will go Republican in the fall and California will go Democratic. But, there is an awful lot of money that liberal Texans and conservative Californians can donate. That’s another reason why you want to win the state primary of a state that you’re not going to carry in the fall. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/77 "2008-02-28T15:45:05Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] I posted that; I forget in which of the many Obama/Clinton threads in GD. Don’t forget, Rhode Island’s big brother to the north, Massachusetts, was a solid win for Clinton early on. I haven’t seen any recent polls showing whether there’s now a shift toward Obama in the Bay State. Still, if Clinton loses Texas (very possible) and Vermont (a lock), essentially ties in Ohio and wins handily in RI, I look forward to witnessing her attempts to spin the Ocean State triumph into a national mandate. [/QUOTE] I’d wonder about the spin. I’m campaigning hardcore this weekend in RI and from what I saw last weekend, RI is a tough nut to crack in terms of switching voters. One thing I have not seen, are recent polls from RI **after** last tuesday’s debate. Today’s Providence Jounral has mixed reactions and Rhodey’s are flocking to the registration centers in droves. The 18-29 demographic are blowing up the Rhode Island registration centers. That is a historical strong suit for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/78 "2008-02-28T15:49:31Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I’d wonder about the spin. I’m campaigning hardcore this weekend in RI and from what I saw last weekend, RI is a tough nut to crack in terms of switching voters. One thing I have not seen, are recent polls from RI **after** last tuesday’s debate. Today’s Providence Jounral has mixed reactions and Rhodey’s are flocking to the registration centers in droves. The 18-29 demographic are blowing up the Rhode Island registration centers. That is a historical strong suit for Obama. [/QUOTE] Wow, good to hear that, but as of the polls I cited there was a helluva gap to be overcome and not a lot of time to do it. Keep us posted. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/79 "2008-02-28T16:00:42Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Wow, good to hear that, but as of the polls I cited there was a helluva gap to be overcome and not a lot of time to do it. Keep us posted. [/QUOTE] From what I’ve heard, RI seems to be a similar situation to here in MA, i.e. the Clintons have long been popular there and Hillary had a HUGE lead that Obama is whittling away at, but not fast enough. At this juncture, I am expecting a similar result to MA - a solid Clinton win. But the significance of RI is obviously much less than the MA win given the relative number of delegates earned. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/80 "2008-02-28T16:20:41Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] if Clinton loses Texas (very possible) and Vermont (a lock), essentially ties in Ohio and wins handily in RI, I look forward to witnessing her attempts to spin the Ocean State triumph into a national mandate. [/QUOTE] At some point, though, she’s really only spinning herself. Even if she wins Ohio by 6-8 points, and wins a squeaker in Texas (with Obama still coming out ahead in delegates in TX), her modest delegate gains will be canceled out by (40% Dem, 38% black) Mississippi the following week, with a slight assist from (12-delegate caucus state) Wyoming in between. After March 11, there’s six weeks of nothing before PA. And she’s only 6 points up in PA, which is her very last chance to cut into Obama’s lead in a nontrivial way. (And Obama will strike back by winning NC handily two weeks later.) Barring bigger wins on Tuesday than I’ve allowed for here, she’s going to have to do one hell of a job of spinning herself on her prospects to keep going after March 4. After PA, we’ll be in the political equivalent of a rook-and-pawn endgame in chess, where if you’re not already within a pawn or two, the outcome is self-evident. We’re already getting close - there just won’t be that many pieces left on the board after Tuesday. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=5)