# Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont - March 4th, 2008 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 20, 2008, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410 "2008-02-20T20:02:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/81 "2008-02-28T16:53:27Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] > [@Marley23](#): > > Ah yes, the “no cute name for this primary” primary. How about “Gallows Tuesday”? [/QUOTE] Waterloosday. [QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] I won’t believe it’s won till the last returns come in on Election Day. [/QUOTE] [Diebold accidentally releases results of 2008 election](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBrDzZCOQtI) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/82 "2008-02-28T17:01:35Z")
[QUOTE=Cervaise] [Diebold accidentally releases results of 2008 election](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBrDzZCOQtI) [/QUOTE] I for one welcome our shadowy overlords. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/83 "2008-02-28T18:31:57Z")
[Awesome 'toon!](http://action.credomobile.com/comics/2008/02/the_road_to_the_luminous_caver.html) ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/84 "2008-02-28T19:18:46Z")
[QUOTE=Cervaise] [Diebold accidentally releases results of 2008 election](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBrDzZCOQtI) [/QUOTE] It’s funny because it’s TRUE! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/85 "2008-02-28T20:18:55Z")
Check this out: [http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/](http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/) Slate made a delegate calculator for the remaining contests. Put in your best guesses and see how it ends up. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/86 "2008-02-28T22:48:04Z")
[QUOTE=hajario] Check this out: [http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/](http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/) Slate made a delegate calculator for the remaining contests. Put in your best guesses and see how it ends up. [/QUOTE] It’s not a very good counter, unfortunately: it assumes that all of a state’s delegates are allocated proportionately at the state level. But most of them are allocated proportionately at the congressional-district level, which is what makes life interesting. In a CD with 6 delegates, a 58-42 win doesn’t do you any more good than a 58-42 loss; in one with 5 delegates, a 69% win doesn’t do you any more good than a 50.1% win. On the whole, it makes it harder to translate a middlin’ popular majority into a delegate majority of the same size. Except in heavily black districts. Thanks to a few rounds of the GOP’s packing as many black votes as possible into as small a number of districts as possible, almost every state has a few districts that aren’t just majority black, but overwhelmingly black. And since the max of 8 delegates per CD goes to the districts that vote overwhelmingly Dem in general elections, which tend to be the overwhelmingly black districts, those tend to be districts that Obama can win 6-2 or 7-1. I don’t know that I could do anything about the black districts in the counter, but I could easily adjust the function that converts % of the vote into numbers of delegates. Maybe take the x^3 function on the [-1,1] interval, which flattens out nicely in the middle, and do appropriate stretchings and shiftings to match it up to the [0%,100%] interval on the x-axis, and the [0, # delegates] interval on the y-axis. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/87 "2008-02-28T23:39:09Z")
[QUOTE=Cervaise] [Diebold accidentally releases results of 2008 election](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBrDzZCOQtI) [/QUOTE] Hilarious. Absolutely fabulous!! I love the crawl of “news” across the bottom. Peace talks between Sweden and Finland. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/88 "2008-02-29T01:36:41Z")
[QUOTE=DSYoungEsq] Hilarious. Absolutely fabulous!! I love the crawl of “news” across the bottom. Peace talks between Sweden and Finland. 😃 [/QUOTE] Even better, “Conjoined twins in Dayton, OH discovered to just be standing close together.” ---
**Author:** ![kevja](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@kevja](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kevja)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/89 "2008-02-29T04:37:48Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] The 18-29 demographic are blowing up the Rhode Island registration centers. That is a historical strong suit for Obama. [/QUOTE] I sure hope they don’t lose interest after the primary. That’s the biggest concern I have about Obama supporters. It hasn’t even been two months since Iowa, and it’s six months to the election. I hope the love lasts. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/90 "2008-02-29T13:17:41Z")
[QUOTE=kevja] I sure hope they don’t lose interest after the primary. That’s the biggest concern I have about Obama supporters. It hasn’t even been two months since Iowa, and it’s six months to the election. I hope the love lasts. [/QUOTE] It’ll last. Don’t bet that come fall, college campuses around the country will be frothing at the mouth for an Obama victory over McCain. Let’s just get him to the Nomination first shall we. One Day at a Time. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/91 "2008-02-29T16:41:01Z")
Clinton camp raises [specter of lawsuits](http://www.star-telegram.com/news/story/502662.html) challenging the Texas primary process. > [@](#): > > AUSTIN – The Texas Democratic Party is warning that its March 4 caucuses could be delayed or disrupted after aides to White House hopeful Hillary Clinton raised the specter of an “imminent” lawsuit over its complicated delegate selection process, officials said Thursday night. > > In a letter sent out late Thursday to both the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, Texas Democratic Party lawyer Chad Dunn warned that a lawsuit could ruin the Democrats’ effort to re-energize voters just as they are turning out in record numbers. > > Spokesmen from both campaigns maintained there were no plans to sue before the March 4 election. > > “It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party,” Dunn said in the letter, obtained by the Star-Telegram. “Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process.” > […] > The source, who did not have authorization to speak about the matter on the record, said Clinton’s political director, Guy Cecil, had pointedly raised the possibility of a courtroom battle. > > But Adrienne Elrod, Clinton’s top Texas spokeswoman, said campaign and party officials had merely discussed primary night procedures and that the campaign was merely seeking a written agreement in advance. She could not elaborate on the details of the agreement the Clinton campaign is seeking. “It is our campaign’s standard operating procedure that we need to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it,” Elrod said. “No legal action is being taken. We have no reason to take any legal action.” > […] > The letter to the two campaigns did not specify what procedures or rules might trigger a lawsuit. But one party official said the campaigns were most concerned about the caucus process, or, as the party refers to it, the “precinct conventions.” Texas has 228 delegates, the biggest single cache remaining. But only 126 delegates are doled out based on the selection voters make at the ballot box. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/92 "2008-02-29T16:58:35Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] Clinton camp raises [specter of lawsuits](http://www.star-telegram.com/news/story/502662.html) challenging the Texas primary process. [/QUOTE] Of course, more moving of the goal posts. Clinton’s campaign knows she does notoriously bad in caucuses, and Obama does very well. This is inside bullshit that I think everyone will see right through. Just because Clinton raised 35 million in February - nealry 20 million less than Obama - she’s thinking it’s a resurgance…More BS. There are not enough rolleyes to be placed for her crap! ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/93 "2008-02-29T17:24:14Z")
…nevermind… ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/94 "2008-02-29T17:58:32Z")
Sounds like the Clinton camp is now saying Obama needs a sweep Tuesday. I don’t think I can follow that logic. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/95 "2008-02-29T18:07:17Z")
[And they’re moving the goalposts yet again:](http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/29/must_wins/index.html) > [@](#): > > The Obama campaign and its allies are outspending us two to one in paid media and have sent more staff into the March 4 states. In fact, when all is totaled, Senator Obama and his allies have outspent Senator Clinton by a margin of $18.4 million to $9.2 million on advertising in the four states that are voting next Tuesday. > > Senator Obama has campaigned hard in these states. He has spent time meeting editorial boards, courting endorsers, holding rallies, and – of course – making speeches. > > If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there’s a problem. > > Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear: > > Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer. :rolleyes: Yeah, he’s won 11 straight, but if he doesn’t win 15-straight, well, _he’s_ the one in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2008, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/96 "2008-02-29T18:26:45Z")
You know what pisses me off about all of this shit? It’s simply shades of Bush. When was the last time we had a President that told the truth at least some of the time? Bush is 100 percent spin, obviously. Can you believe he told us yesterday that there wasn’t going to be a recession? Does he think anyone believes him anymore? With HRC it’s more of the same. It’s simply bullshit every time she opens her mouth. I’m sick of it. What the HRC camp ought to worry about though is if she didn’t set the bar high enough. I am not saying that Obama needs to win all four, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. What will she do then? I really hope that this crap is over on the 4th of March. Hillary has ruined every chance she has at being humble and bowing out. She should do it before March 4, and I don’t htink she will. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/97 "2008-03-01T00:00:24Z")
[Now this is getting ridiculous](http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/29/clinton_call/index.html): > [@](#): > > “If you are acting like the nominee – if you are, essentially, declaring the race over – you ought to be able to win the contests that are coming up,” Howard Wolfson told reporters during the call…“If you don’t, it says something profound about Democrats’ unease.” > > For Obama to lose any one state to Clinton on Tuesday would show he hasn’t locked up the nomination after all, Wolfson argued. “If he can’t put Senator Clinton away here, even though he acts like he’s the front-runner, portrays himself as the front-runner, the campaign portrays itself as the inevitable, anointed nominee, there’s a problem,” he said. “And the problem is that people want Senator Clinton to continue in this race.” > > Of course, plenty of previous Democratic nominees have lost elections well after vanquishing their competition. In 1976, Jimmy Carter lost Alabama, Nebraska and Maryland, among others, after he had effectively clinched the party’s mantle. In 1984, Walter Mondale lost California, the final primary, as well as several other late contests, to Gary Hart, before consolidating his lead (helped along by, ahem, superdelegates) and winning the nod. And yes, Bill Clinton, in 1992, lost Connecticut and Colorado to Jerry Brown, though he had already emerged as the presumptive nominee by then. > > How do I know all that? A helpful memo from Mark Penn – yes, Clinton’s chief strategist – from two weeks ago laid it all out. Before Obama started winning every election in sight, the Clinton spin was that it didn’t matter who won which states; delegates mattered, and losing a few states along the way to the nomination was no big deal. > > Apparently that’s only true if the nominee is Hillary Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/98 "2008-03-01T00:16:56Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] [Now this is getting ridiculous](http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/29/clinton_call/index.html): > [@](#): > > “If you are acting like the nominee – if you are, essentially, declaring the race over – you ought to be able to win the contests that are coming up,” Howard Wolfson told reporters during the call…“If you don’t, it says something profound about Democrats’ unease.” > > For Obama to lose any one state to Clinton on Tuesday would show he hasn’t locked up the nomination after all, Wolfson argued. “If he can’t put Senator Clinton away here, even though he acts like he’s the front-runner, portrays himself as the front-runner, the campaign portrays itself as the inevitable, anointed nominee, there’s a problem,” he said. “And the problem is that people want Senator Clinton to continue in this race.” [/QUOTE] That’s an interesting allegation. > [@](#): > > [Confident Clinton Takes Aim At Attackers - CBS News](http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/26/eveningnews/main3540666.shtml) > > CONCORD, N.H., Nov. 26, 2007 > > **Confident Clinton Takes Aim At Attackers** > Hillary Clinton Tells Katie Couric Time To “Draw Contrasts” With Her Rivals > > . . . > > “If it’s not you, how disappointed will you be?” Couric asked. > > “Well, it _will_ be me,” she said. > > . . . > > Clearly, she has considered the possibility she won’t be the nominee? > > “No, I haven’t,” Clinton said. Something profound is being said here, alright, but it isn’t what Wolfson thinks it is. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/99 "2008-03-01T00:37:53Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] Note that HRC is only behind by less than 100 delegates, and there’s still close to 400 Superdelagates unpledged. 1/4 of those get behind HRC and she’s in the lead. :eek: [/QUOTE] 1/4 of those get behind HRC and Obama wins the nom. Or did you forget about those other 300 that would presumably not be sitting on their hands? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/100 "2008-03-01T01:02:06Z")
Hey, you have to remember that **DrDeth** is the one who [predicted](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9493981&postcount=71) > [@](#): > > WI will be more or less a tie. Hillary should win back her lead in Texas and Ohio. and still (as of two days ago) thinks that [Gore](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9515721&postcount=147) “has a chance.” Handicapping this cycle has not exactly been his/her forte. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=6)