# Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont - March 4th, 2008 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 20, 2008, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410 "2008-02-20T20:02:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/101 "2008-03-01T01:06:39Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] That’s an interesting allegation. Something profound is being said here, alright, but it isn’t what Wolfson thinks it is. [/QUOTE] I didn’t think this YouTube has been posted yet. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/102 "2008-03-01T01:08:48Z")
OH btw, my old predictions are up for revision. I am now expecting a sweep for Obama being close only in RI and blow-outs elsewhere. My thinking it would be less than that impressive previously had given HRC’s campaign much more credit than it apparently deserved. How many more supers do y’all think will declare for Obama before Tuesday? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/103 "2008-03-01T01:11:42Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Hey, you have to remember that **DrDeth** is the one who [predicted](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9493981&postcount=71) and still (as of two days ago) thinks that [Gore](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9515721&postcount=147) “has a chance.” Handicapping this cycle has not exactly been his/her forte. 🙂 [/QUOTE] I have not been wrong yet. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/104 "2008-03-01T01:16:39Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] [And they’re moving the goalposts yet again:](http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/29/must_wins/index.html) :rolleyes: Yeah, he’s won 11 straight, but if he doesn’t win 15-straight, well, _he’s_ the one in trouble. [/QUOTE] That quote is hilarious! This is my favorite part: "He has spent time meeting editorial boards, courting endorsers, holding rallies, and – **of course** – making speeches. (bolding mine) Cause that’s all he does - make speeches! Will he never stop making speeches? :dubious: Wankers. ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/105 "2008-03-01T01:17:33Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] I have not been wrong yet. [/QUOTE] Um… Obama won Wisconsin by 17% of the vote and took 10 more delegates, according to NPR. That’s not “more or less a tie”. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/106 "2008-03-01T01:30:54Z")
[QUOTE=Menocchio] Um… Obama won Wisconsin by 17% of the vote and took 10 more delegates, according to NPR. That’s not “more or less a tie”. [/QUOTE] OK, you have a point- but hardly a landslide, either. I cheerfully concede my thoughts about Gore are an outside chance, but if the Nomination goes into the Con without a winner, then it’s possible. Admitedly Obama is doing damn well at the moment, but his lead is not insurmountable. I can’t see how he will get 641 more delegates to outright win- even if he wins 70% of the upcoming delegates :dubious: …especially as there are only around 370 delegates in the upcoming Primaries to win. Do you Obama-ites really think he will win **173** % of the upcoming votes? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/107 "2008-03-01T01:55:34Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] OK, you have a point- but hardly a landslide, either. I cheerfully concede my thoughts about Gore are an outside chance, but if the Nomination goes into the Con without a winner, then it’s possible. Admitedly Obama is doing damn well at the moment, but his lead is not insurmountable. I can’t see how he will get 641 more delegates to outright win- even if he wins 70% of the upcoming delegates :dubious: …especially as there are only around 370 delegates in the upcoming Primaries to win. Do you Obama-ites really think he will win **173** % of the upcoming votes? 😛 [/QUOTE] A 17% margin of victory is almost as good as it gets for a two person race with two serious contenders. As for the delegate count, it won’t come to the convention. We’re already seeing a steady trickle of superdelegates coming out for Obama. Expect that to become a deluge unless Clinton seriously kicks ass this Tuesday. If Clinton comes within, say 25 pledged delegates of Obama, they may defer until Pennsylvania, but no longer. McCain is already leaping ahead of the Democrats. Both Clinton and Obama would like to try again in 2012 or 2016, and if they drag things out, the harder that’ll be. This won’t go to the convention. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/108 "2008-03-01T02:14:50Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] Admitedly Obama is doing damn well at the moment, but his lead is not insurmountable. I can’t see how he will get 641 more delegates to outright win- even if he wins 70% of the upcoming delegates :dubious: …especially as there are only around 370 delegates in the upcoming Primaries to win. [/quote] There’s actually [981 delegates left](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html) to win in the remaining primaries and caucuses. I think it’s hardly a stretch to suggest that he can win slightly over half of them - maybe 520 to Hillary’s 460. Then he’ll need about 120 of the remaining ~360 superdelegates. If Hillary doesn’t substantially improve her position on Tuesday, there’ll be a superdelegate stampede for Obama in the ensuing days. I expect many of them are just waiting for the point where declaring for Obama is a no-risk proposition. They know he’s got a solid lead in delegates (105 delegates, as we close in on the endgame, is a solid lead), even further ahead in pledged delegates, a substantial lead in votes and a solid lead in the national polls. If she _does_ make a real dent in Obama’s lead on Tuesday - big enough that it won’t be essentially undone by Wyoming and Mississippi on Saturday and the following Tuesday - then all bets are off, there’s no superdelegate rush, and Hillary and Obama carpet-bomb Pennsylvania with appearances and ads for the next six weeks after Mississippi. Scary thought. But I don’t think this contest will go to Pennsylvania. It’s hard to see Hillary managing better than a draw for the March 4-11 period, and eventually she’s got to _win_ somewhere. After Tuesday, she’s almost out of favorable somewheres. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/109 "2008-03-01T03:16:01Z")
Wolfson’s comment about the front winner being able to win “every contest” suggests that if HRC only wins in Rhode Island (which she is likely to do), the Clinton campaign can still crow that it ain’t over, since Obama hasn’t won every state. I felt like the “do or die” statement was issued because they expected to win Texas, and by pushing all their chips into Texas could pretend the results, however slim, signaled a swing in momentum. Now that Texas looks iffy, they’ve backed off. You won’t hear anything about do or die through March 4 (though if Clinton “wins” Texas by 12 votes, it’ll be brought up in the victory speech). The new game plan seems to be claiming that anything but an Obama sweep is actually a referendum on the Obama candidacy and that this whole mess ought to be dragged into the convention and the courts. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/110 "2008-03-01T03:54:58Z")
Are you ready? Obama by 10% in Texas Obama by 4% in Ohio Obama by 59% in Vermont Clinton by 8% in Rhode Island Concession speech from Clinton After Mississippi where Obama takes it by 33%. You heard it here. BTW - I was in Westerly, Rhode Island tonight for dinner and I had a rather heated talk with a friend who is a staunch Clinton supporter. Yes, she is still a friend 🙂 She’s convinced Hillary is the best choice because she had the most experience in the white house already. :eek: Lot’s of undecided superdelegates in RI. If RI goes Clinton, it’s not going to break his momentum at all. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/111 "2008-03-01T17:06:49Z")
It seems like [Ohio](http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/02/29/DELEGATE_MATH.ART_ART_02-29-08_A1_BV9GBAA.html?adsec=politics&sid=101) has some delegate math that favors Obama too. > [@](#): > > On Tuesday, 92 delegates from 18 congressional districts will be up for grabs. Each district is assigned delegates based on the number of Democratic votes cast in the district in the 2004 presidential election. > > For example, eight delegates are at stake in the Democrat-heavy 11th District in Cleveland, while areas of western and southeastern Ohio offer one to four delegates because they have fewer Democrats. > > The 15th District, which includes the western Columbus area, has four delegates. > > But here’s where it gets complicated. > > A candidate who wins a majority of the 15th District vote will get two of the four delegates. But a candidate who wins 60 percent still gets only two delegates. Why? > > Four delegates multiplied by 60 percent equals 2.4 delegates. Numbers are rounded. > > To win three of the four delegates, Obama or Clinton will have to win at least 63 percent of the vote, a nearly 2-to-1 ratio. > > In the 11th District, which has the largest concentration of black voters, capturing 60 percent of the vote will result in winning five of the eight delegates. The irony here of Clinton, who so voiciferously has played the hand that delegates are all that matters (hence her “big state” and superdelegates-to-the-rescue strategies), getting hoisted by her own petard in both Texas and Ohio, is sweet. Of course I believe that Obama will win the popular vote there too, and by no small margin, so this delegate math is less important. But still. Gives me a giggle. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/112 "2008-03-01T23:02:01Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] It seems like [Ohio](http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/02/29/DELEGATE_MATH.ART_ART_02-29-08_A1_BV9GBAA.html?adsec=politics&sid=101) has some delegate math that favors Obama too. [/QUOTE] Those rules apply to all states, and their effect is to turn middlin’ popular-vote wins into pretty tiny wins, delegate-wise. To break through to real wins WRT delegates, you need popular-vote landslides. And that’s what Obama’s done since Super Tuesday: he’s won a string of landslides in a group of states with about the same combined population as Texas and Ohio put together. Which is why his lead is going to be hard for Clinton to overcome, even if she wins both TX and OH, but by small-to-middlin’ margins. Texas, of course, has the added complication of ~1/3 of Tuesday’s delegates being determined by the evening’s caucuses. (IIRC, 126 delegates are chosen in the primary, and 67 in the caucuses.) Ohio is strictly a primary. [Here’s a map of Ohio’s Congressional districts and their delegates, along with some analysis.](http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=760)Of Ohio’s 141 delegates, 92 are allocated proportionally within the CDs, and 49 are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote totals. So for instance, a 54-46 win for Clinton would probably translate into a 27-22 majority of the statewide delegates, and the rest would be by CD. Only 6 of Ohio’s 18 CDs have an odd number of delegates to allocate. Al Giordano’s analysis of those five is at the link. He’s an Obama guy, but he thinks Clinton will come up between even and +4 in that group of districts. Most of the 4- and 6-delegate CDs should break even. The 8-delegate CDs nationwide have tended to be overwhelmingly African-American, and if that’s the case for Ohio’s 11th, Obama will probably win that one by 6-2 or thereabouts. Say Clinton wins a couple of those even districts big enough to win them 3-1 or 4-2, comes up +3 in the odd ones, and loses the 11th 6-2. It’s easy to see her winning Ohio by 54-46, yet winning the delegate count by no more than 75-66. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/113 "2008-03-01T23:25:30Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Only 6 of Ohio’s 18 CDs…Al Giordano’s analysis of those five [/QUOTE] Oops. Try “those **six**.” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2008, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/114 "2008-03-01T23:50:47Z")
And “comes up + **4** in the odd ones.” I’m on a roll tonight, folks! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2008, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/115 "2008-03-02T00:43:45Z")
Once you realize that a 75-66 delegate win for Clinton in Ohio would be a _good_ night wrt delegates in that state, it shows just how deep the hole is that Clinton’s in. Even if she scrapes out a narrow victory in the statewide TX vote, she’s not likely to get even that big of an advantage in the primary delegates, and she’ll probably lose any advantage from the primary in the caucus. Meanwhile, VT/RI will probably be a wash, or close to it. I don’t see how Clinton nets +20 delegates on Tuesday night. I just don’t see it. But I could easily see Obama going +20 over the following week in WY/MS. So there’s my prediction: **Obama will win more pledged delegates over the next week and a half than Clinton will.** The only question is the size of the overall win. The point of the TX/OH firewall was that it was going to _make up_ for that string of losses after Super Tuesday. But on March 12, she’ll be in worse shape with respect to delegates than she is now - but over 42% of the 981 delegates currently up for grabs will be off the board, and she’ll have made up no ground. Then the hiatus. Forty days and forty nights to either carpet-bomb Pennsylvania, or get a clue and fold her losing hand. Here’s what’s left after the hiatus: April 22: PA - 158 delegates. Clinton ahead by 4 (Rasmussen) and 6 (Quinnipiac) in the two most recent polls. May 3: Guam - 4 delegates. May 6: NC - 115 delegates. Obama ahead by 10 (Survey USA) and 14 (Elon College) in the two most recent polls. May 6: IN - 72 delegates. May 13: WV - 28 delegates. May 20: OR (caucus) - 52 delegates. May 20: KY (caucus) - 51 delegates. June 3: MT - 16 delegates. June 3: SD (caucus), 15 delegates. June 7: Puerto Rico - 55 delegates. That’s it, other than ~360 undeclared superdelegates. And lately, Obama’s been gradually catching up in that department: Hillary’s superdelegate lead is \<50 now. I don’t blame Hillary for giving it her best shot between now and Tuesday. But unless she does a lot better than my ‘best case’ scenario for her, she should really hang it up after Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2008, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/116 "2008-03-02T12:46:17Z")
There’s an easily usable [Ohio delegate counter](http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/ohio_delegate_calculator) here. You enter vote %'s in each CD and statewide, and it turns that into delegate totals. The only drawback is that you’ve got to do your own calculations to ensure that the statewide total you input is consistent with the district percentages you input, but that’s easy enough to rectify with a calculator or Excel. After playing with a number of scenarios, there’s no doubt in my mind that if Clinton wins Ohio, her delegate % will be smaller than her vote %, probably by 2-4%. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2008, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/117 "2008-03-02T19:16:45Z")
Quite a revealing article on [cnn.com](http://cnn.com) today: [Obama’s success in Ohio rests on shoulders of ground troops](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/02/obama.grassroots/index.html). Some pertinent quotes: > [@](#): > > as Tuesday’s primary approaches and the battleground shifts from the airwaves to the the task of turning out the vote, the passion of a candidate’s ground troops, not the size of the war chest, might be the most critical ingredient for success. > > [snip] > > Web-recruited phone staffers and canvassers were armed with call lists and printouts of Obama’s policy positions. Carefully plotted maps were distributed to groups headed out to visit voters door-to-door, and forms bearing fresh updates on all occupants of each home visited were collected from returning volunteers. > > The contents were entered into a database with the ability to sort that information precinct-by-precinct, block-by-block, house-by-house. > > Downtown, the Obama office on East Rich Street – in sight of Ohio Republican Party headquarters in Columbus – was filled with a steady stream of volunteers, staffers and residents trading contact information for yard signs. > > [snip] > > Frausto saw Obama for the first time last year on the “The Oprah Winfrey Show,” went to hear him speak in Cincinnati and became one of the first in the state to create a user profile on the campaign’s Web site last February. > > She launched Obama-supporting groups that blossomed from a handful of members to dozens, then hundreds, as strangers connected online. > > “I’m too old to be a Facebook person,” said Michael, who was recruited by Frausto. “But then I thought: ‘Hey, this is pretty cool.’” > > Long before the campaign’s Iowa field guru, Paul Tewes, or other full-time staffers arrived here, Frausto found herself at the forefront of a small army of unpaid workers, including Michael, who made telephone calls, canvassed and stumped for Obama in Ohio. > > Last year, Obama volunteers staffed major Democratic events across the state, gathering and sorting voter contact information, recruiting volunteers and directing likely donors. > > They occasionally crossed paths with an Edwards supporter – “always the same one,” Frausto said – but in all that time, never ran into any of their counterparts on the Clinton campaign. The entire article is well worth a read. Its focus is on the Democrats’ potential in Ohio to meet and perhaps beat the efforts of the Republican get-out-the-vote machine in the general election, but it suggests a significant contrast between the campaigns of Obama and Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2008, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/118 "2008-03-02T19:56:14Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] The entire article is well worth a read. Its focus is on the Democrats’ potential in Ohio to meet and perhaps beat the efforts of the Republican get-out-the-vote machine in the general election, but it suggests a significant contrast between the campaigns of Obama and Clinton. [/QUOTE] It’s not just in the States where the elections are being held. My girlfriend is on an Obama mailing list. There is are a series of Obama parties tonight in various people’s homes in town. The agenda starts with a live phone feed by Obama followed by everyone getting their own list of Texas voters and calling them to ask them to vote for Barack. In the week before Super Tuesday, I got two calls from Obama’s campaign targeting independents. I didn’t get calls from any of the other candidates. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2008, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/119 "2008-03-02T20:09:10Z")
It has been pointed out before but worth repeating: Obama’s grassroots structure, his organization now well honed across the country, is the tool that will bring him victories across the country in states blue purple and even red come November. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410/120 "2008-03-02T22:38:56Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] It has been pointed out before but worth repeating: Obama’s grassroots structure, his organization now well honed across the country, is the tool that will bring him victories across the country in states blue purple and even red come November. [/QUOTE] And he has had a lot of time in TX and OH. A friend in Galveston said there are supporters EVERYWHERE! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/texas-ohio-rhode-island-and-vermont-march-4th-2008/438410.md?page=7)