# The 1960s Food Shortage & Overpopulation Scare? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 15, 2016, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032 "2016-09-15T19:45:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Terminus\_Est](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terminus_est/32/3087_2.png) [@Terminus\_Est](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terminus_Est)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/21 "2016-09-16T15:35:57Z")
The fundamental development of the Green Revolution, the one that actually allowed the use of high inputs, was the discovery of semi-dwarf varieties of wheat and rice. Traditional cultivars grow about as tall as a person. They respond to high fertilizer and water applications, but the heads get so heavy that the entire plant tends to fall over, ruining the crop. Modern semi-dwarf varieties, which grow about waist-high, are more resistant to this lodging and allow the farmer to actually harvest greater yields. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/22 "2016-09-16T17:34:39Z")
> [@jtur88](#): > > At least 40% (I’ve heard estimates nearer 50%) of all edible human food produced in the world goes uneaten. Al that is necessary to feed nearly double the present population is to reduce waste to near zero, which can be readily done with sensible application of existing technology. > > Last week, I was in a city of nearly a million in Somalia, and the people looked pretty well fed. There was plenty of food and other consumer goods in the marketplace, prices were affordable, there was no visible poverty approaching starvation. Somaliland is a net exporter of livestock, with wheat and rice the principle staples. If a region like that can be anywhere near self-feeding., it suggests to me that all that is needed is a civilized resolve that transcends globalized economics and politics, which is exactly what Somaliland is doing, absent any diplomatic recognition from any nation and no national currency. I’m not sure I would pick [Somalia](http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=44811#.V9wtH032bcs)as a good example of how to avoid famines. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/23 "2016-09-16T17:40:13Z")
Personally, I don’t think we will actually run out of oil. Renewable sources are producing more and more energy, and electric cars are getting better. Electric motors, which are also replacing gas powered yard equipment, do not need oil changes or fuel. They are also vastly more energy efficient than internal combustion. Many home heating systems are using heat pumps instead of burning oil. Oil will become worthless as alternatives flourish. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/24 "2016-09-16T18:37:50Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > Personally, I don’t think we will actually run out of oil. Renewable sources are producing more and more energy, and electric cars are getting better. Electric motors, which are also replacing gas powered yard equipment, do not need oil changes or fuel. They are also vastly more energy efficient than internal combustion. Many home heating systems are using heat pumps instead of burning oil. Oil will become worthless as alternatives flourish. Powertrain alternatives for ground-based transportation are getting better and better, but I don’t see a replacement for fossil fuel in commercial aviation happening any time soon. Useful airspeed (meaning “I don’t want to take 36 hours to get from LA to Tokyo”) requires a lot of power, and long distance requires a lot of energy. Jet fuel, 46 MJ/kg Lithium-ion battery, 0.875 MJ/kg Even supposing an electric high-bypass turbofan of sufficient thrust (which doesn’t exist), you’d have to leave the passengers behind so the legion of batteries could have their seats (and their luggage space). Part of why electric drivetrains can work for cars is that they’re replacing a heat engine that has crappy efficiency (the mobile gasoline IC engine) with one that has pretty good efficiency (a stationary large-scale electrical power generation facility). But I don’t see an efficient and useful electrical alternative to the jet-fueled high-bypass turbofan. You could power a prop with an e-motor - that would be better efficiency than a piston-engine prop plane - but you won’t achieve jet-age airspeeds, and you’ll still have the range problem. TL,DR: if we run out of fossil fuel, commercial aviation is fucked. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/25 "2016-09-16T18:51:19Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I’m not sure I would pick [Somalia](http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=44811#.V9wtH032bcs)as a good example of how to avoid famines. > > Regards, > Shodan Somaliland is a breakaway republic, operating completely independent of the Somali government in Mogadishu, which exercises no authority nor jurisdiction in Somaliland. In Hargeisa, electricity is uninterrupted, water is safe to drink, trash trucks with compactors ply the streets. It is technically regarded, internationally, as part of Somalia, since no nation has recognized the Somaliland government, which has functioned for 25 years with free elections in a multi-party system. It is a safe, friendly, and amazing place to visit. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/26 "2016-09-16T19:07:03Z")
> [@Finagle](#): > > Note that the green revolution and increased crop yields are largely due to petro-chemical based fertilizers, increased use of herbicides, and mechanized farming. So when and if the oil runs out, people are going to get hungry very fast and all at once. > > Whether we have pulled new rabbits out of our hats by then is anyone’s guess. So it’s not clear that they were \* wrong\* in the 60’s, but they may have gotten the time frame off by a few decades. IIRC, petrochemical based fertilizer used methane (natural gas) and some by products from the cracking process. We have a lot of that stuff left and there will come a time when people won’t really be using it for energy any more. Also, I don’t think methane is a NECESSARY element of fertilizer. Its just a cheap and easy way to make ammonium nitrate but IIRC, if energy ever got cheap enough, we could make ammonium nitrate out of thin air. This was one of the more fringey elements of the peak oil theories. It was aimed mostly at frightening people into conservation. A worthy reason for lying if ever there was one but I don’t think it was as dire as it was made to seem. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/27 "2016-09-16T19:23:05Z")
> [@eburacum45](#): > > Another factor in defusing the population bomb is the Demographic Transition; most countries in the world have moved towards a low birth rate and a low death rate, making population growth low in most locations > —except Africa. > > Currently the population of the world can be very roughly divided up as follows -1 billion people in Europe, one billion in the Americas, one billion in Africa, and four billion in Asia. Hans Rosling calls this the ‘pin number of the world’. 1114. > > Reduced population growth will mean that in 2100, there will be 1 billion people in Europe, one billion in the Americas, four billion in Africa, and five billion in Asia. The new pin number will be 1145. > > As you can see, the reduction of population growth does not seem to be happening in Africa. To be more precise, Southern Africa has gone through the demographic transition (or more precisely, South Africa has completed it and the other southern African countries are well on their way to completing it). It’s specifically tropical Africa which hasn’t. The good news is that once a country starts the demographic transition it generally goes to completion. With the salient exception of Israel, and a few small Pacific Island microstates and Middle Eastern petro-states, countries don’t usually get stuck midway: there’s a high fertility equilibrium and a low fertility one. The bad news is that much of tropical Africa is still stuck at the high population equilibrium. The other unfortunate news is that the specific advances of the green revolution, at least as far as wheat and IIRC rice go, have mostly ground to a halt. Hopefully GM approaches will be able to step in and raise the ceiling somewhat further. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/28 "2016-09-16T19:25:44Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > Also IIRC during the 1960`s there was a prominent crop failure and mass starvation in an area of India (sort of like what happened in Somalia a generation ago). Unlike Somalia, or Biafra, or China in the 1950`s, or South Sudan - these areas were more the victims of bad government and/or internal conflict. The onset of mass starvation due to crop failure in the 1960’s in India seemed to reinforce the issue. > > The question is whether/when the demographic shift will hit areas of Asia and Africa. As people get richer, children become less of a working asset and more of a cost during their childhood. People adjust their child-producing ways accordingly. China appears to be well on the way, including government policiies. India in some cases seems to be approaching this point. Africa (as you see, going from 1 to 4) appears to be the big question. Of course, the collateral question is - where will the food come from to feed four times as many people? Africa is too chaotic to make any increase in food production for now, and the resulting chaos if they don’t means that the wilds of big game Africa may be gone in 2 generations. Africa is a very poor continent, but it’s not ‘chaotic’ as a whole, although some individual countries certainly are. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/29 "2016-09-16T20:20:10Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > The other unfortunate news is that the specific advances of the green revolution, at least as far as wheat and IIRC rice go, have mostly ground to a halt. Hopefully GM approaches will be able to step in and raise the ceiling somewhat further. Besides GM, there’s also the potential of vat-grown produce. Why bother creating whole plants if you just care about the fruits? Why make bone and sinew, if you just want muscle? You can improve efficiency greatly by reducing resource use to the bare minimum required for what we actually care about. You will also turn food production from 2D farming into 3D manufacturing. Foods will be produced in tubs that are fed mineral mixtures and light, and those tubs can be stacked several stories high and moved about by machinery for turning or moving to a different mineral supply for different growth periods of the plant, etc. Food production would basically be limited by our ability to supply light and raw minerals to our food tubs. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/30 "2016-09-16T20:23:24Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > To be more precise, Southern Africa has gone through the demographic transition […] South Africa has completed it No, it hasn’t. Not even close. South Africa is a Stage 3 country. [This](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Africa#/media/File:Pyramide_Afrique_du_Sud.PNG) is not the pyramid of a country that has completed transition ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/31 "2016-09-16T21:10:09Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > Powertrain alternatives for ground-based transportation are getting better and better, but I don’t see a replacement for fossil fuel in commercial aviation happening any time soon. Useful airspeed (meaning “I don’t want to take 36 hours to get from LA to Tokyo”) requires a lot of power, and long distance requires a lot of energy. > > Jet fuel, 46 MJ/kg > Lithium-ion battery, 0.875 MJ/kg > > Even supposing an electric high-bypass turbofan of sufficient thrust (which doesn’t exist), you’d have to leave the passengers behind so the legion of batteries could have their seats (and their luggage space). > > Part of why electric drivetrains can work for cars is that they’re replacing a heat engine that has crappy efficiency (the mobile gasoline IC engine) with one that has pretty good efficiency (a stationary large-scale electrical power generation facility). But I don’t see an efficient and useful electrical alternative to the jet-fueled high-bypass turbofan. You could power a prop with an e-motor - that would be better efficiency than a piston-engine prop plane - but you won’t achieve jet-age airspeeds, and you’ll still have the range problem. > > TL,DR: if we run out of fossil fuel, commercial aviation is fucked. Could high speed trains (electric) be an alternative at least for when you dont need to cross an ocean? Right now I read some go over 200 mph and even top 300 mph at times. Granted an airline goes about 540 mph at top speed but their is so much time when they are just sitting on the ground taxiing to and from the terminals. Heck sometimes the plane waits an hour or more to take off. And actually they are building bridges spanning ever larger distances with some in China going over 90 miles. ---
**Author:** ![igor\_frankensteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/839c29/32.png) [@igor\_frankensteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/igor_frankensteen)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/32 "2016-09-17T00:10:35Z")
> [@ChickenLegs](#): > > Yes. Oil is a similar analogy. A few years ago, “peak oil” was all the rage. We were sure to soon run out of it. The price reached $140 per barrel. The industry responded to the market with new sources and improved methods, the price collapsed to $35, and now we’re swimming in oil. Problem solved. > > Capitalism always finds a way. It’s a wonder that so many are against it. Well, that’s both a confusion, and an oversimplification. First of all, “capitalism always finds a way.” No. Capitalism isn’t a person, or a creature, or an entity of any kind. Nor is it a research organization. It is more like a conceptual mechanism for understanding the interaction of actual and representational values and wealth. It’s a sort of machine, in a way, but even that isn’t accurate, because it doesn’t produce anything directly. Next, the reason for those large fluctuations in the price of a barrel of oil, were many and complicated. Even saying that the reason for the fall in prices was " new sources and improved methods" is mostly false. Capitalist principles of supply and demand DID play a part, but not in any idealistic way. In fact, most of the price shift, was politically motivated, and was the direct result of PRICE AND PRODUCTION MANIPULATION. Unfortunately, capitalism doesn’t care if it’s used to make things better and cheaper, or if it’s used instead to make things artificially more dear, and vastly more expensive. It’s capitalism either way. The reason why agricultural product prices have been fairly stable, is IN SPITE OF normal “capitalism” mechanisms, rather than because of them. Again, it’s a matter of market manipulation, not competition and the search for wealth. Overall: SOME of the solutions to humanities larger concerns and problems, have come from profit motive. Many more, have actually come from more artificial efforts, manipulations, and government proddings and regulations. That doesn’t mean that capitalism is “bad” and that government control of everything is “good,” either. Because many government manipulations have failed, and a fair number of solutions HAVE come from the profit motive, either directly or indirectly. Final note: with all historical worries, such as this thread was started about, the fact that people DID become concerned in advance of the problem actually being upon us, often was WHY the problem never did materialize: people woried, they planned, they acted in advance, and they PREVENTED the problem from occurring. Recent case in point: the infamous Y2K worry that haunted us in the 1990’s. Like the overpopulation and insufficient agricultural productivity worry, a lot of people saw that when we reached the year 2000, that a lot of computer programs and databases that we relied on to keep our systems running, would become confused, and possibly paralyzed. All sorts of doom and gloom scenarios were described, and some people even reached the point of telling everyone to store bottled water up, in case the world came to a functional end at the stroke of midnight, December 31st, 1999. But in the event, almost nothing happened. Was the non-event due to capitalism magically fixing things? No. Was it because there was never a real concern to begin with? Nope. Was it because people “always find a way to muddle through?” Also uh-uh. The reason why January 1, 2000 was pretty much just another day of hangovers, was because thousands of people ACTED IN ADVANCE TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM AND FIX IT. The thing to realize is, that although we have done fairly well on this ball of dirt so far, there really is no guarantee or magic idea that will make sure we will continue to be okay. So we have to pay attention and ACT when we get warnings, most of the time, and not complacently assume that everything will be fine, because it has turned out okay in the past. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/33 "2016-09-17T00:29:00Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > Powertrain alternatives for ground-based transportation are getting better and better, but I don’t see a replacement for fossil fuel in commercial aviation happening any time soon. Useful airspeed (meaning “I don’t want to take 36 hours to get from LA to Tokyo”) requires a lot of power, and long distance requires a lot of energy. There’s on alternative to hydrocarbons for aviation, but there’s no particular need for the hydrocarbons to be made from fossil fuels. The only reason we run airplanes on kerosene instead of olive oil is that olive oil is a lot more expensive. When the price of kerosene rises the relative cost of manufacturing an equivalent arbitrary chemical fuel from an arbitrary chemical source becomes lower. We could be manufacturing liquid hydrocarbons out of coal or cornstalks, but that’s more expensive than pumping it out of the ground. So we don’t do that. Of course that will make aviation more expensive than it is nowadays, we can always manufacture fuels but those fuels are going to cost quite a bit more than conventional fuels today. That won’t matter as much if our economy grows. And there are always alternatives to air travel–trains, video conferencing, sailing ships. The point is, liquid hydrocarbon fuels are still going to be used, even though they’ll be more expensive. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/34 "2016-09-17T01:16:08Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > No, it hasn’t. Not even close. South Africa is a Stage 3 country. [This](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Africa#/media/File:Pyramide_Afrique_du_Sud.PNG) is not the pyramid of a country that has completed transition Thanks for the correction- I was using ‘demographic transition’ in a loose sense to refer to fertility rate, but I shouldn’t really have done that, and their fertility rate is a bit higher than I thought anyway. The graph you show is from 2005, and given the experience of most other countries I’d assume the transition is further advanced since then. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/35 "2016-09-17T09:21:51Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Thanks for the correction- I was using ‘demographic transition’ in a loose sense to refer to fertility rate, but I shouldn’t really have done that, and their fertility rate is a bit higher than I thought anyway. > > The graph you show is from 2005, and given the experience of most other countries I’d assume the transition is further advanced since then. [Not really](http://www.indexmundi.com/south_africa/age_structure.html) - AIDS has had a pruning effect on the top of the pyramid, keeping it pointy at the top, without the [rounding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid#/media/File:DTM_Pyramids.svg)that you’d expect from late-stage populations. There’s the characteristic “youth bulge” of the developing nation, too. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/36 "2016-09-17T11:53:13Z")
> [@eburacum45](#): > > Another factor in defusing the population bomb is the Demographic Transition; most countries in the world have moved towards a low birth rate and a low death rate, making population growth low in most locations > —except Africa. > > Reduced population growth will mean that in 2100, there will be 1 billion people in Europe, one billion in the Americas, four billion in Africa, and five billion in Asia. The new pin number will be 1145. > > As you can see, the reduction of population growth does not seem to be happening in Africa. I don’t think it’s fair to somehow portray Africa as being a unique problem and everything would be fine were it not for those guys. Other continents have _already gone through_ the demographic transition and that’s why, say, Europe is so densely-populated. (The Americas are something of an exception in this, as the dial was essentially reset to zero when the native population succumbed to infectious disease and war). Africa’s population explosion won’t be due to stagnation; it will be because of the growth of many countries’ economies allowing improved nutrition and medical care…going through the same change as we’ve already enjoyed. Instead of pointing fingers we should be helping them push through this process, particularly focusing on countries where the death rate is falling quickly but the birth rate remains high. Improved education and opportunities for women are the key factors in this. Also we have to consider the resource footprint. Saying that population is the issue is often a way for those in the West to absolve themselves from having to do anything. But if we look at [CO2 emissions per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita), for example, they are up to 100 times higher in the US than in Africa. Only 5 African countries emit more than a 10th of the US’ per capita amount. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/37 "2016-09-17T12:37:45Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I don’t think it’s fair to somehow portray Africa as being a unique problem and everything would be fine were it not for those guys. > Other continents have _already gone through_ the demographic transition and that’s why, say, Europe is so densely-populated. > (The Americas are something of an exception in this, as the dial was essentially reset to zero when the native population succumbed to infectious disease and war). > > Africa’s population explosion won’t be due to stagnation; it will be because of the growth of many countries’ economies allowing improved nutrition and medical care…going through the same change as we’ve already enjoyed. > > Instead of pointing fingers we should be helping them push through this process, particularly focusing on countries where the death rate is falling quickly but the birth rate remains high. > Improved education and opportunities for women are the key factors in this. > > Also we have to consider the resource footprint. Saying that population is the issue is often a way for those in the West to absolve themselves from having to do anything. > But if we look at [CO2 emissions per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita), for example, they are up to 100 times higher in the US than in Africa. Only 5 African countries emit more than a 10th of the US’ per capita amount. Yes and no. The problem(?) with Africa and previously with Asia, is that the demographic transition is not complete, but by inheriting medical know-how from the first world, they have allowed the population to grow without the accompanying industrialization that would provide larger volumes of food and the economic activity for everyone to pay for it. Ideally they would go the way of for example Japan, Korea, and now China. South Africa may be the demographic exception, but for Nigeria, for example - will they squander their oil money before they have built a good infrastructure, before they have the factories and support structure for a 200-million person nation? So the question still stands - how will Africa provide for four times as many people? Where will all those people fit, and where will the farms to feed them be? (My uninformed opinion is that the critical countries will hit a brick wall before that 4B is achievable) As for airline fuels, large airlines have the ideal configuration for hydrogen use. Yes, hydrogen comes with its own handling problems - but you have a limited collection of use points- major airports - and each consumer is a large jet aircraft that consumes a huge quantity at one go. This is a lot simpler than trying to feed individual private vehicles or similar. It’s more amenable to using liquid hydrogen instead of compressed gas. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/38 "2016-09-17T13:26:28Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > As for airline fuels, large airlines have the ideal configuration for hydrogen use. Yes, hydrogen comes with its own handling problems - but you have a limited collection of use points- major airports - and each consumer is a large jet aircraft that consumes a huge quantity at one go. This is a lot simpler than trying to feed individual private vehicles or similar. It’s more amenable to using liquid hydrogen instead of compressed gas. The cost of transport by air is a lot less than you think. Randomly choosing a flight RT Chicago to Madrid in November, I found a fare of $752. Of that, Turkish Airlines gets $238, and thirteen different fees and charges added to that add up to another $514. The airline puts you in a hotel on the overnight connection in Istanbul, included in fare, as is the inflight meal and the baggage allowance. So the airline is actually flying you across the Atlantic, on two consecutive flights, for less than a hundred bucks. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/39 "2016-09-17T16:34:46Z")
I recall reading that the per airline passenger mile in fuel consumption was about equivalent to a single occupant driving the equivalent distance - not small, but not any order of magnitude different. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032/40 "2016-09-17T18:10:39Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > [Not really](http://www.indexmundi.com/south_africa/age_structure.html) - AIDS has had a pruning effect on the top of the pyramid, keeping it pointy at the top, without the [rounding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid#/media/File:DTM_Pyramids.svg)that you’d expect from late-stage populations. There’s the characteristic “youth bulge” of the developing nation, too. You’re right, but the big lack of children (compared to people in their 20s) does indicate that fertility rates, at least, have undergone a big decrease. (The Population Reference Bureau suggests that total fertility rate is now 2.4). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1960s-food-shortage-overpopulation-scare/766032.md?page=3)