# The 1st Annual Oscar Prediction Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [January 12, 2003, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152 "2003-01-12T17:21:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2003, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/1 "2003-01-12T17:21:35Z")
We’re in the midst of Oscar season\* now with Academy ballots already out and the nomination announcements a mere month away, so I thought I’d organize… **The 1st Annual SDMB Academy Award** **Prediction Contest** [sup]\*\*[/sup]\* (with real prizes!)\* The Contest will be in 2 parts: 1. Predicting the Nominees 2. Predicting the Winners Separate prizes will be given for parts 1 & 2: The first part starts today: submitting your tallies for who will be nominated in the following categories: Picture Actor Actress Supporting Actor Supporting Actress Director Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Cinematography Art Direction Costume Design Editing Sound Sound Editing Original Score Original Song Visual Effects Make-up Animated Feature Foreign-Language Film That’s 20 categories. In all but 4 of the categories, submit the **5** films you believe will be on the final nomination slate. For Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Make-up, and Animated Feature, only submit 3 film titles. For the acting categories, you must specify the actor _and_ the film (Ex: Leonardo di Caprio is insufficient; you must put the film as well). Scoring The winner of this phase will be determined from a combination of 2 scores: correct guesses (straight) and correct guesses (weighted). The weighting will be based on the number of other people who did not guess your correct prediction. Example: You guess both Jack Nicholson and Eddie Murphy as Best Actor nominees. You are one of 30 submissions. 27 other people guess Nicholson, but nobody else guesses Murphy. Nicholson & Murphy both get nominated, so you get 2 points for Nicholson but 29 points for Murphy. Thus, you are rewarded for taking risks. A risk can pay off big, but if it doesn’t, then you suffer because you wasted a prediction on a risk at the expense of a “safer bet” that would have possibly improved your overall straight correct guess score. One week before the nominations (Feb. 4), I will supply a tally of all the predictions thus far (as well as my own ballot). After that time, all entrants may submit **one** post to change their ballot. This way, nobody is penalized in the weighted scoring for posting their predictions before others. Now, a few rules: 1. All prediction ballots must be posted in this thread (no personal e-mails to me). 2. All predictions **must** be on a **single post**. 3. If Opal or anyone else posts more than 5 (or 3 in the aforementioned cases) predictions in any category, only the first 5 (3) listed will be considered. 4. Only one post will be accepted after Feb. 4. You may use this post to add categories that you omitted in the first post. All subsequent “change” posts will be invalid. 5. If your first prediction ballot is submitted after Feb. 4, you may not have a second “change” post. 6. All posts must be submitted by **12:01 am PST, Tuesday, February 11**. Some helpful links: [This is a list of the films submitted for Foreign Language film](http://www.oscar.org/press/pressreleases/2002/02.12.02.html). Quite a number of high-profile foreign films from 2002 are not eligible in this category because their countries failed to submit them. All nominees will come exclusively from this list. This is a list of the semi-finalists for [Visual Effects](http://www.oscar.org/press/pressreleases/2003/03.01.08.b.html) and [Sound Editing](http://www.oscar.org/press/pressreleases/2003/03.01.08.a.html). The final 3 will come from these lists of 7. [This is a list of the films eligible for the Animated Feature category](http://www.oscar.org/press/pressreleases/2002/02.12.11.html) Here are lists of this year’s [Golden Globe](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03goldgl.htm), [Broadcast Film Critics](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03bfca.htm), [Independent Spirit Awards](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03indspt.htm), [Golden Satellite](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03goldsa.htm), and [Chicago Film Critics](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03chicag.htm) nominees. Here are the winners of awards from this year’s [National Board of Review](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02nbr.htm), [National Society of Film Critics](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03nsfc.htm), and the critics associations from [New York](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02nyfc.htm), [Los Angeles](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02lafc.htm), [Boston](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02boston.htm), [Toronto](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02torfca.htm), [San Diego](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02sdfc.htm), [San Francisco](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02sffc.htm), [Washington DC](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02wafca.htm), [Kansas City](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03kancfc.htm), [Las Vegas](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02lvfc.htm), [Seattle](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02seatfc.htm), [Dallas-Ft. Worth](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03dallfw.htm),and the [Southeast](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/03stheas.htm). Some important dates coming up: January 12: Golden Satellite winners announced January 17: Broadcast Film Critics winners announced January 19: Golden Globe winners announced January 21: Director’s Guild of American nominees announced January 28: Screen Actor’s Guild nominees announced And yes, I meant it: I will be putting up a prize for whoever wins either Part I or Part II. Good Luck! AG \*[sub]yes, yes, I know the Oscars are a load of crap, but irresistible crap–plus, every once in a while, they _do_ get something right.[/sub] \*\*[sub]it should be noted Joey Hemlock tried this before through Yahoo, but I’m hoping for a bigger response[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2003, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/2 "2003-01-12T19:21:52Z")
You write: \> . . . and the critics associations from New York, Los Angeles, \> Boston, Toronto, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington DC, \> Kansas City, Las Vegas, Seattle, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and the \> Southeast. What? There’s a Washington DC Area Film Critics Association? I looked at the webpage cited: [http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02wafca.htm](http://www.ncf.carleton.ca/~aw220/02wafca.htm) and it claims that it’s the first annual awards for the Washington DC Area Film Critics Association. Now this is bothersome, since for three years (1997-1999), I tried to do a poll of the Washington DC area film critics: [http://www.dcfilmsociety.org/oscar97.htm](http://www.dcfilmsociety.org/oscar97.htm) I gave up after three years because I couldn’t get enough co-operation from the critics. Boy, am I ticked off to discover that someone else is doing it and not even acknowledging that someone did it before him. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2003, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/3 "2003-01-12T19:51:27Z")
Here are my predictions: BEST PICTURE Gangs of New York Catch Me If You Can Chicago The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Hours BEST DIRECTOR Martin Scorsese, “Gangs of New York” Peter Jackson, “The Two Towers” Stephen Daldry, “The Hours” Spike Jonze, “Adaptation” Rob Marshall, “Chicago” BEST ACTOR (LEAD) Robin Williams, “One Hour Photo” Jack Nicholson, “About Schmidt” Daniel Day-Lewis, “Gangs of New York” Nicholas Cage, “Adaptation” Michael Caine, “The Quiet American” BEST ACTRESS (LEAD) Nicole Kidman, “The Hours” Meryl Streep, “The Hours” Nia Vardalos, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” Julianne Moore, “Far From Heaven” Renee Zellwegger, “Chicago” BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Antwone Fisher, by Antwone Fisher Far From Heaven, by Todd Haynes Signs, by M. Night Shyalaman My Big Fat Greek Wedding, by Nia Vardalos The Good Girl, by Mike White BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Chicago, by Bill Condon About Schmidt, by Jim Taylor and Alexander Payne The Rookie, by Mike Rich Adaptation, by Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman The Hours, by David Hare BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Chris Cooper, “Adaptation” Dennis Quaid, “Far From Heaven” John C. Reilly, “Chicago” Christopher Walken, “Catch Me If You Can” Andy Serkis, “The Two Towers” BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kathy Bates, “About Schmidt” Cameron Diaz, “Gangs of New York” Samantha Morton, “Minority Report” Julianne Moore, “The Hours” Queen Latifah, “Chicago” CINEMATOGRAPHY “The Two Towers” “Chicago” “Gangs of New York” “Minority Report” “The Pianist” FILM EDITING “The Hours” “The Two Towers” “Gangs of New York” “Chicago” “Minority Report” ART DESIGN “Chicago” “The Two Towers” “Far From Heaven” “Gangs of New York” “Solaris” COSTUME DESIGN “The Two Towers” “Chicago” “Gangs of New York” “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones” “Frida” SOUND “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones” “The Two Towers” “Minority Report” “Gangs of New York” “Chicago” SOUND EDITING “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones” “The Two Towers” “Minority Report” MAKEUP ARTISTRY “The Two Towers” “The Hours” “Star Trek: Nemesis” SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS “The Two Towers” “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of The Clones” “Minority Report” ANIMATED FEATURE “Lilo and Stitch” “Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron” “Ice Age” No guesses on the score or song categories. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2003, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/4 "2003-01-12T23:42:59Z")
I think there are too many categories and some people may not be too interested in or knowlegable about the more technical awards. Why not restrict it to the first six and maybe the animated feature category? Or you could have two contests: one for all twenty and one for the above seven. Those who just want to submit guesses for the main awards can have that option. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/5 "2003-01-30T11:26:45Z")
A bump and an update. Since the OP, some important developments have occurred in the Oscar race, including: [The Golden Globe winners](http://www.cineperspective.com/Awards/03goldgl.htm) [The Screen Actors Guild nominees](http://www.cineperspective.com/Awards/03sag.htm) [The Director’s Guild of America nominees](http://www.cineperspective.com/Awards/03dga.htm) [The British Academy Award nominees](http://www.cineperspective.com/Awards/03bafta.htm) Also, here’s a list of [All the Eligible Films](http://www.oscars.org/75academyawards/reminder/reminder_list.html) for this year’s Academy Awards. And because of [recent developments](http://people.aol.com/people/news/now/0,10958,412327,00.html), the Make-up category has been **eliminated** from the prediction contest. Some reminders:[ul][li]The nominations are announced Tuesday morning, February 11.[/li][li]A week from today, I will list the current prediction tallies as well as my predictions.[/li][li]Anyone who submitted a prediction post before then may post a second time to change their ballots.[/li][li]Anyone who has not submitted a prediction post by then has one week left before the deadline of 12:01 am Tues. 2/11 PST.[/li][li]There will be a **Prize** for whoever gets the highest point tally (based on the system explained in the OP).[/li][/ul] A couple of additional comments to posters: **RickJay** , _Star Wars, Episode II_ did not make the shortlist of Sound Editing finalists, so it will not be a nominee. When I post the tallies next week, you can use your “change” post to select a new nominee. The link for the shortlist of finalists is in the OP. **CyberPundit** , I will create a separate tally for the Top 8 categories (acting, writing, directing, pic), and that top Doper can have Supreme Bragging Rights. But for the actual physical prize, they have to guess the whole kit & caboodle. Given the number of submissions running, even half-educated guesses currently stand a good chance. Good Luck Everybody! ---
**Author:** ![Dragon\_Phoenix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/bcef8e/32.png) [@Dragon\_Phoenix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dragon_Phoenix)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/6 "2003-01-30T14:47:59Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by RickJay \* > \*\* > No guesses on the score or song categories. \*\* If they do not nominate (and choose) The score for The Two Towers and Gollums song, they are nuts. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2003, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/7 "2003-02-02T16:03:42Z")
Doin’ a weekend bump. Maybe people love **RickJay** enough here to let him walk off with the prize… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Mockingbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c68b51/32.png) [@Mockingbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mockingbird)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2003, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/8 "2003-02-02T20:39:09Z")
BEST PICTURE Gangs of New York Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind Chicago My Big Fat Greek Wedding The Hours BEST DIRECTOR Martin Scorsese, “Gangs of New York” Peter Jackson, “The Two Towers” Stephen Daldry, “The Hours” Spike Jonze, “Adaptation” Rob Marshall, “Chicago” BEST ACTOR (LEAD) Robin Williams, “One Hour Photo” Jack Nicholson, “About Schmidt” Daniel Day-Lewis, “Gangs of New York” Nicholas Cage, “Adaptation” Sam Rockwell, “Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind” BEST ACTRESS (LEAD) Nicole Kidman, “The Hours” Catherine Zeta Jones, “Chicago” Nia Vardalos, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” Julianne Moore, “Far From Heaven” Renee Zellwegger, “Chicago” BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Antwone Fisher, by Antwone Fisher Far From Heaven, by Todd Haynes Signs, by M. Night Shyalaman The Good Girl, by Mike White Monsoon Wedding by Sabrina Dhawan BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Chicago, by Bill Condon Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind, by Charlie Kaufman My Big Fat Greek Wedding, by Nia Vardalos Adaptation, by Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman The Hours, by David Hare BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Chris Cooper, “Adaptation” Dennis Quaid, “Far From Heaven” John C. Reilly, “Chicago” Christopher Walken, “Catch Me If You Can” Andy Serkis, “The Two Towers” BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kathy Bates, “About Schmidt” Cameron Diaz, “Gangs of New York” Samantha Morton, “Minority Report” Julianne Moore, “The Hours” Queen Latifah, “Chicago” CINEMATOGRAPHY “The Two Towers” “Chicago” “Naqoyqatsi” “Spider-Man” “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets” FILM EDITING “Naqoyqatsi” “The Two Towers” “Gangs of New York” “Chicago” “Spider-Man” ART DESIGN “Chicago” “The Two Towers” “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets” “Gangs of New York” “Solaris” COSTUME DESIGN “The Two Towers” “Chicago” “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets” “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones” “Spider-Man” SOUND “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones” “The Two Towers” “Spider-Man” “Gangs of New York” “Chicago” SOUND EDITING “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones” “The Two Towers” “Minority Report” “Spider-Man” “Chicago” SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS “The Two Towers” “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of The Clones” “Spider-Man” “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets” “Queen Of The Damned” ANIMATED FEATURE “Lilo and Stitch” “Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron” “Ice Age” “The Wild Thornberry’s Movie” ORIGINAL SONG “I’m Gonna Watch It Shine” - Paul Simon “Hero” - Chad Kroeger “Die Another Day” - Madonna SCORE “Gangs of New York” “Chicago” “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets” ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2003, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/9 "2003-02-09T17:13:52Z")
PICTURE Chicago Gangs of New York The Hours LOTR: The Two Towers The Pianist DIRECTOR Rob Marshall, Chicago Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York Stephen Daldry, The Hours Peter Jackson, LOTR: The Two Towers Todd Haynes, Far from Heaven ACTOR Adrien Brody, The Pianist Nicolas Cage, Adaptation Michael Caine, The Quiet American Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt ACTRESS Salma Hayek, Frida Nicole Kidman, The Hours Diane Lane, Unfaithful Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Renee Zellweger, Chicago SUPPORTING ACTOR Chris Cooper, Adaptation Ed Harris, The Hours Paul Newman, Road to Perdition Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kathy Bates, About Schmidt Queen Latifah, Chicago Meryl Streep, Adaptation Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago Toni Collette, About a Boy ADAPTED SCREENPLAY About Schmidt Adaptation Chicago The Hours The Pianist ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Antwone Fisher Far From Heaven Gangs of New York My Big Fat Greek Wedding Talk to Her ANIMATED FEATURE Ice Age Spirited Away Lilo & Stitch ART DIRECTION Chicago Gangs of New York LOTR: The Two Towers Frida Far from Heaven CINEMATOGRAPHY Chicago Far From Heaven Gangs of New York Road to Perdition Minority Report COSTUME Chicago Frida Gangs of New York CQ Far from Heaven EDITING Chicago Gangs of New York LOTR: The Two Towers Minority Report The Hours ORIGINAL SCORE Catch Me if You Can Far From Heaven Frida The Hours Signs ORIGINAL SONG “Lose Yourself”, 8 Mile “The Hands that Built America”, Gangs of New York “Father and Daughter”, The Wild Thornberries Movie “Something to Talk About”, About a Boy “I Move On”, Chicago SOUND Chicago LOTR: The Two Towers Minority Report We Were Soldiers Gangs of New York SOUND EDITING LOTR: The Two Towers Minority Report Spider-Man VISUAL EFFECTS LOTR: The Two Towers Minority Report Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM 8 Women (France) City of God (Brazil) Lilja 4-ever (Sweden) Nowhere in Africa (Germany) Zus & Zo (The Netherlands) * * * It’s not too late to throw your hat in the ring. Remember Free Prize for the winner! Good Luck! ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-1st-annual-oscar-prediction-contest/148152/10 "2003-02-11T01:45:48Z")
Final Bump for any last minute guesses (plenty of breathing room for winning right now). 🙂