# The 20 year curse **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [October 6, 2000, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957 "2000-10-06T14:32:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SevenUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@SevenUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SevenUp)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/1 "2000-10-06T14:32:53Z")
The one where all presidents elected every 20 years die in office. Reagan broke it, but just barely. Ya think it’ll happen this time? ---
**Author:** ![AWB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bb73d2/32.png) [@AWB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AWB)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/2 "2000-10-06T15:12:30Z")
Well, eight president’s have died in office, but only one died that was _not_ elected in a divisible-by-20 year: Zachary Taylor. Pretty eerie. Maybe Taylor died so that Reagan could life. 😃 I think that since “The West Wing”'s President Bartlett didn’t die last Wednesday, the _real_ president elected this year better be careful. 😃 Or maybe Reagan broke the Tecumsah Curse, as the 20-year presidential death syndrome is sometimes called. Slight hijack: did George HW Bush have _no_ serious assassination attempt against him? If this is true, was it because J. Danforth Quayle was his VP, and no assassin wanted to put Danny-boy in power? ---
**Author:** ![Turpentine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecd19e/32.png) [@Turpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turpentine)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/3 "2000-10-06T15:32:42Z")
It’s called the Curse of Old Tippacanoe, and it has something to do with William Henry Harrison, who was the first to succumb to thise curse. It has actually been fulfilled- every president elected in a year ending in zero has died in office- William Henry Harrison Zachary Taylor Abe Lincoln James Garfield William McKinley Warren G. Harding Franklin Roosevelt John F. Kennedy Then there’s Ronald Reagan, elected in 1980 and didn’t die in office. But he got shot- and woul have died had it not been for medical science. I always thought that science was the archenemy to magick, and curses fall under the magick category. So it’s really weird… It makes me wonder if I should vote for the candidate that I hope will die. Has there been a lot of talk about this? ---
**Author:** ![yabob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yabob/32/2821_2.png) [@yabob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yabob)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/4 "2000-10-06T15:38:52Z")
Something that makes it a little less strange - some of those presidents died in later terms, or had been elected to earlier terms: 1860 - Lincoln died after the 1864 election. 1900 - McKinley had been elected in 1896 as well. 1940 - Roosevelt died after the 1944 election, and had been elected in 1932 and 1936 as well. Note that Roosevelt was a sick man, probably would not have run in '44 if there hadn’t been a war on, and would not have died in office. Garfield, Harding and Kennedy all died in their first term of office, divisible by 20. If you take a series of events, it’s usually possible to contrive strange coincidences about them after the fact. This ignores the hundreds of things that DIDN’T coincide. It makes for good material for forums like this, though. ---
**Author:** ![yabob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yabob/32/2821_2.png) [@yabob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yabob)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/5 "2000-10-06T15:54:45Z")
> [@](#): > > Then there’s Ronald Reagan, elected in 1980 and didn’t die in office. But he got shot- and woul have died had it not been for medical science. Maybe they’re atoning for Garfield. Garfield’s assassin attempted a defense that Garfield died due to medical incompetence and that the wound he inflicted should not have been fatal. He had a point, as shortly after the shooting the doctors publically stated that the wound was not serious, and the president would recover. The defense didn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![TampaFlyer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/71e660/32.png) [@TampaFlyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TampaFlyer)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/6 "2000-10-06T16:14:00Z")
It would be interesting to look up how many died in office who were elected in years NOT ending in 0. Presidential elections can only occur in years with even numbers, so 20% of those elections are in years ending in 0. As was mentioned, Lincoln was also elected in 1864. FDR was elected in 1932, 1936, & 1944, but still counts toward this “curse” because he was also elected in 1940. ---
**Author:** ![Turpentine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecd19e/32.png) [@Turpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turpentine)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/7 "2000-10-06T16:22:58Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by TampaFlyer \* > \*\*It would be interesting to look up how many died in office who were elected in years NOT ending in 0. Presidential elections can only occur in years with even numbers, so 20% of those elections are in years ending in 0. As was mentioned, Lincoln was also elected in 1864. FDR was elected in 1932, 1936, & 1944, but still counts toward this “curse” because he was also elected in 1940. \*\* Every single president who died in office was elected in a year ending in zero. No other president besides the ones I listed above have died in office. I never said that the presidents were not also elected in other years- just that all the ones who WERE elected in years ending in zeroes have died in office. It’s true. ---
**Author:** ![whitetho](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whitetho/32/1059_2.png) [@whitetho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/whitetho)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/8 "2000-10-06T16:55:40Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Turpentine \* > \*\*Every single president who died in office was elected in a year ending in zero. > > [William Henry Harrison > Zachary Taylor > Abe Lincoln > James Garfield > William McKinley > Warren G. Harding > Franklin Roosevelt > John F. Kennedy] > \*\* Please double-check the **AWB** post: “only one died that was _not_ elected in a divisible-by-20 year: Zachary Taylor.” Taylor was elected in 1848, not in a zero year like the others. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/9 "2000-10-06T17:29:56Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Turpentine \* > I never said that the presidents were not also elected in other years- just that all the ones who WERE elected in years ending in zeroes have died in office. It’s true. \*\* I’ll just point out: Jefferson (elected 1800) and James Monroe (re-elected 1820) did not die in office. Nor did Ronald Reagan (elected 1980). As for Garfield’s death- yabob’s right, the wound Garfield received was relatively minor; what killed Garfield was _months_ of doctors probing the wound, trying to get the bullet out, at a point where “septic conditions” meant not specifically _trying_ to get cigar ashes in the wound. As for the odds that a dead President would have been elected in a year ending in 0- for a single-term president, it’s 20%; for a two-term president it’s 40%; for a four-term president it’s 80%. Therefore, the “odds” that such an event occurs is .02048%. Someone better at statistics than me would have to figure out the odds of this happening including Tayor, who died but wasn’t elected in a 0 year. While you’re at it, see if you can figure out the odds that six of our presidents would have the first name “James”. Or one of them would have the first name “Millard” and another “Woodrow”. I think you’ll find the odds the same. Likewise, posit to me any seven Presidents, and likely I’ll be able to come up with some “fun fact” that fits all of them. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/10 "2000-10-06T18:02:05Z")
> [@](#): > > Jefferson (elected 1800) and James Monroe (re-elected 1820) did not die in office. Jefferson and Monroe were elected before Tecumseh (allegedly) placed the (so-called) curse. ---
**Author:** ![Turpentine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecd19e/32.png) [@Turpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turpentine)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/11 "2000-10-06T18:22:50Z")
Johnny- I really like your sig. Maybe we should just wait and see if Mr. President dies between 2001- 2004. And everybody’s right about finding coincedences between anything such as Jesus was called the Lamb of God Elvis had mutton-chop sideburns. I was just pulling everything I knew about the curse out of my ass. Ok John Corrado, here’s your list: Milliard Fillmore Bill Clinton Lydon Johnson John Quincy Adams Andrew Jackson William Howard Taft Chester A. Arthur I just named 7 random presidents- What astonishing coincedences can you come up with? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/12 "2000-10-06T18:36:33Z")
> [@](#): > > Ok John Corrado, here’s your list: > > Milliard Fillmore > Bill Clinton > Lydon Johnson > John Quincy Adams > Andrew Jackson > William Howard Taft > Chester A. Arthur Dammit. If it weren’t for Arthur and Clinton, I could say that each of them lost a run for the Presidency. (Fillmore in 1856 as a Know Nothing, Johnson in '60 and '68 during the primaries, Adams in 1828 and Jackson in 1824, Taft in 1912). I’m working on it. I’ll get back to you. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/13 "2000-10-06T18:44:44Z")
Can anyone cite any mentions of this “curse” before Reagan getting shot and “breaking” it? Better yet, can anyone find a mention of it shortly after the death of Tecumseh? One point to note is that, if you state the curse in a form specific enough to cover all of the exceptions, it takes longer to state the curse than it does to just name the presidents. ---
**Author:** ![bibliophage](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bibliophage/32/7615_2.png) [@bibliophage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bibliophage)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/14 "2000-10-06T18:45:56Z")
Tecumseh’s Curse was not recognized as such in the early years. People in 1860 didn’t go around saying, “Well, everybody elected in 20-year increments is going to die in office.” My point is that **data used to formulate the hypothesis cannot be used to prove the hypothesis**. Suppose Tecumseh’s Curse was first hypothesized in 1950 (I don’t know when it was really, but I’d be interested in learning). Up to that time, all the data would be consistent with the hypothesis (six out of six since 1840). But since 1950, only 50% of the new data are consistent with the hypothesis (one out of two since 1950). Btw, here is Cecil’s column on Tecumseh’s curse, in he says that in an 1836 play, Tecumseh is said to be “cursing the white man as he lay dying.” I doubt very much the curse was the line, “You, and everyone after you who is elected to the Presidency in years evenly divisible by 20, will die in office.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/15 "2000-10-06T18:53:49Z")
Dammit. Alright, except for Johnson, they were all lawyers before getting involved in public service. Except for Taft and Adams, they all fought for lower tariffs. I suppose I could go for something easy like “they were all married”, but I’m gonna keep checking and see what I can come up with. ---
**Author:** ![Turpentine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecd19e/32.png) [@Turpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turpentine)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/16 "2000-10-06T19:00:30Z")
Ok JC- that’s pretty good for 7 completely random picks. You seem determined to do better, but I’m already impressed. I’m lazy and numarically deficient, but I bet there are bunch of dates between the seven that has a common denominator of some sort. I remember hearing it argued that one of the astonishing coincedences between Lincoln and Kennedy is that they both have seven letters in their last name. I think the numbers association is pretty weak. I have always like the Tecumseh curse though, because it is, no matter how you argue it away, uncanny that so many died in neat, 20-year increments (except for Reagan who could easily have died). Bibliophage- your link didn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![TinCanMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b5a626/32.png) [@TinCanMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TinCanMan)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/17 "2000-10-06T19:13:22Z")
I think it should be the prime mandate for the Secret Service to enforce this curse. With Reagan we just didn’t try hard enough. ---
**Author:** ![yabob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yabob/32/2821_2.png) [@yabob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yabob)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/18 "2000-10-06T19:19:39Z")
> [@](#): > > Can anyone cite any mentions of this “curse” before Reagan getting shot and “breaking” it? Better yet, can anyone find a mention of it shortly after the death of Tecumseh? I was very familiar with it in the 70’s, not as “Tecumseh’s curse” but as “every president elected in a year divisible by 20 since 1840 died in office” … It was brought up many times as the 1980 election approached. Not documented cites, I know, but it was definitely floating around prior to Reagan. I doubt if you will find any mention of it prior to the existence of data establishing the pattern, as several of us have already commented on. ---
**Author:** ![bibliophage](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bibliophage/32/7615_2.png) [@bibliophage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bibliophage)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2000, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/19 "2000-10-06T21:28:08Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Turpentine \* > \*\*Bibliophage- your link didn’t work. \*\* Obviously I’ve been cursed. The old hacker on his deathbed told me, “May you and all the people after you whose userids are evenly divisible by 41 and who try to post that link on alternate rainy Friday afternoons, fail miserably.” Try [Cecil’s column on the curse](http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_082.html) ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2000, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957/20 "2000-10-07T12:42:28Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by TinCanMan \* > \*\*I think it should be the prime mandate for the Secret Service to enforce this curse. With Reagan we just didn’t try hard enough. \*\* Maybe John Hinkley’s lawyer should have used this as a defense: It wasn’t my client’s fault, he was under the effect of an Indian curse. Then again, he did a great job of screwing justice anyway. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-20-year-curse/35957.md?page=2)