# The 2008 Presidential elections: How will the Dems screw THIS one up? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 28, 2006, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495 "2006-08-28T05:42:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2006, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/41 "2006-08-28T23:52:02Z")
“I don’t belong to any organized party. I’m a Democrat.” - Will Rogers As long as that rings true, the Democrats will never win. Pick a message and hit it hard. But the Dems can’t even decide on when to meet to discuss the message, much less pick one. That way lies Eternal Defeat. A leader would be nice, but who do the Democrats have that could lead a pack of Cub Scouts to a Baskin-Robbins? ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/42 "2006-08-29T00:07:53Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] I’m saying that rather than pour 2008 presidential campaign money into what is currently a lost cause, focus it on the Ohios and Pennsylvanias, the Colorados and New Mexicos of the nation. [/QUOTE] You are simply wrong to assume the South is a lost cause. Clinton proved otherwise by taking several southern states: Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee… If you run as a regional candidate, then even if you win that way you will be a _regional_ President. Why consciously divide the country and stir up regional resentments? Thank God Howard Dean does not share your views. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/43 "2006-08-29T00:44:55Z")
[QUOTE=Evil Captor] So the Pubbies know they cannot afford to give up either House in 2006, because to do so leaves them incredibly vulnerable. And with Dubya’s poll numbers in the crapper and a distinct downward drag issuing from Dubya’s coattails, there’s only one way to ensure their hold on the House – some really creative electioneering, or cheating as everyone else calls it. [/quote] While I agree for the most part, the one problem with this thinking is that it requires continued skulldruggery from the Republicans to keep their power and prevent their skeletons from coming to light. How many times can you rig an election until _everyone_ starts to get suspicious? > [@Reloy3](#): > > 1. pander to the extreme left of the party by either nominating someone unelectably left-wing in a general election or by nominating an “uncontroversial” but boring political insider. This point seems self-contradictory. > [@spoke-](#): > > If you run as a regional candidate, then even if you win that way you will be a regional President. Why consciously divide the country and stir up regional resentments? > > Thank God Howard Dean does not share your views. Agreed with that. One of the Dems’ (numerous) problems in the past has been to write off regions as “lost causes” and not bother to do anything. The problem with this withdrawl is that it leaves a wide opening for your opponents to step in and demonize you further, preventing you from winning those votes in the future. It’s better to run a candidate in a difficult election and lose, if only to establish a presence that can be built upon for the future. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/44 "2006-08-29T00:48:22Z")
[QUOTE=rjung] One of the Dems’ (numerous) problems in the past has been to write off regions as “lost causes” and not bother to do anything. [/QUOTE] When and where? ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/45 "2006-08-29T01:06:50Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] When and where? [/QUOTE] Two quick examples: > [@](#): > > [**Will Democrats show up in all 50 states for a change?**](http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/4140097.html) > For Democrats, there’s opportunity in Nebraska. It is a conservative state, but retains a strong populist streak. Nebraskans are churchgoers who take morals seriously, but this is not the Bible Belt. People also tend to vote the person, rather than the party. Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson is a popular Democrat, who seems headed for easy re-election. In sum, Democrats should be able to do more business here. > > And so why haven’t they? > > “We didn’t show up” is the explanation offered by Barry Rubin, executive director for the Nebraska Democratic Party. **“I’ve had people tell me that they haven’t seen a Democratic Party person in their town for 20 years.”** > [@](#): > > [**Dean’s List**](http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060716/24dems.htm) > **Mississippi’s Democratic Party hasn’t trained precinct captains for more than a decade. Until recently, the state party consisted of a single full-time staffer.** In 2004, the Democratic National Committee invested so little here that activists shelled out thousands of their own dollars to print up Kerry yard signs. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/46 "2006-08-29T01:59:21Z")
That last map was from the 2000 census. [Here’s a more recent map](http://eadiv.state.wy.us/images/trends/map00_04.gif) showing that the population shift to the so-called “red states” (and I really hate the divisiveness of that term) continues apace. The 2010 Census will herald a significant shift of electoral power. Ignore that future at your political peril. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/47 "2006-08-29T01:59:47Z")
I’m independant, but right-of-center. My guess is that the Dems will analyze the Kerry defeat and decide that they need someone more “dynamic.” They will end up picking some far-left Hillary clone (but not Hillary herself) and pairing her with some irrelevant nobody. They will then set about trying to sell these guys to the public. The Pubbies, OTOH, will be reading the Bill Clinton playbook. They’ll find some likeable Southern governor (staying far away from anyone in the Bush Administration – sorry Condi) and pair him with Rudy Guiliani. The pairing of Mr. Southern Gentleman and Mr. Ground Zero will be much more charismatic than the Dem’s team of Dragon Lady and Mr. Wallflower. Iraq won’t be as big an issue as the Dems think it will be. (It wasn’t in 2004, when American soldiers were dying every day, so why should that change now, when most casualties are Iraqis?) End result: four more years of Democrats bitching about how they were robbed. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/48 "2006-08-29T02:26:55Z")
I don’t want Hillary to be the Dem candidate or anything, but can people please stop pretending that either she or her husband are in any way “far-left”? ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/49 "2006-08-29T02:33:34Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] When and where? [/QUOTE] A third quick example. The Kerry campaign effectively pulled out of Missouri two months before the 2004 election. Bush won 54% of the vote (about a 300,000 vote margin.) Missouri Democrats blame Kerry’s pullout for the loss of some key statewide and swing-district elections. ---
**Author:** ![Caridwen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c89c15/32.png) [@Caridwen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Caridwen)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/50 "2006-08-29T02:34:27Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] I don’t want Hillary to be the Dem candidate or anything, but can people please stop pretending that either she or her husband are in any way “far-left”? [/QUOTE] Agree with that. Bill Clinton was the closest I ever came to voting republican. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/51 "2006-08-29T02:58:01Z")
[QUOTE=rjung] While I agree for the most part, the one problem with this thinking is that it requires continued skulldruggery from the Republicans to keep their power and prevent their skeletons from coming to light. How many times can you rig an election until _everyone_ starts to get suspicious? [/quote] You don’t have to rig an election if you can win it without doing so. That is the key to the Pubbies’ vote-rigging strategy: they focus on key states where the elections are very close and do their rigging there – places like Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000. I suspect other key states had some rigging going on, but because the elections weren’t so close in those states, they didn’t get the attention, so they didn’t get the suspicion. And where they do not need to cheat to ASSURE victory, they don’t. They’ll lose a vote in a non-key state and won’t cheat in a key state where their victory is assured, or where a Dem victory is assured. Only the close ones get the treatment. And while not EVERYONE is suspicious about the Pubbies right now, a LOT of us are. > [@](#): > > Agreed with that. One of the Dems’ (numerous) problems in the past has been to write off regions as “lost causes” and not bother to do anything. The problem with this withdrawl is that it leaves a wide opening for your opponents to step in and demonize you further, preventing you from winning those votes in the future. It’s better to run a candidate in a difficult election and lose, if only to establish a presence that can be built upon for the future. I agree with that. What the Dems should do is go state-by-state. Where the Pubbies have an overwhelming advantage, lay the groundwork. Where they have a solid margin, but Dem competition, build on what’s there, and where things are close, POUR IT ON!!! That’s the way the Pubbies do it. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/52 "2006-08-29T10:16:19Z")
[QUOTE=kunilou] A third quick example. The Kerry campaign effectively pulled out of Missouri two months before the 2004 election. Bush won 54% of the vote (about a 300,000 vote margin.) Missouri Democrats blame Kerry’s pullout for the loss of some key statewide and swing-district elections. [/QUOTE] This example is on point and goes some way to convincing me I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/53 "2006-08-29T17:35:45Z")
**silenus** has it right. Here’s what will happen: in the last half of the primary season, the field will have winnowed into a front-runner and a useless competitor. (See: Kerry v. Edwards, Gore v. Bradley, Clinton v. Brown, Dukakis v. Jackson, Mondale v. Hart, Carter v. Udall.) On the Republican side, the presumptive candidate will begin pulling in workers, constituency leaders, media reps, etc., and hammer out an agenda and talking points. The Republican nominee and staff will make it clear that anyone who strays from point will be cut off from future access. On the Democrat side, the presumptive candidate will begin being pulled in by workers, constituency leaders, media reps, etc., and be hammered in to staking out positions and talking points on their pet issues. The Democratic nominee and staff will have it made clear to them that if they do not address specific issues and make specific stands, they will be cut off from future support. The Republican nominee and staff will roll out after the convention with a clear agenda and vision, and pound it home, changing the subject at all times to match up with their talking points, and force the message out through the media no matter what the media really wants to talk about. They will also have a slogan that indicates strength and patriotism. (“Smith: The Right Direction For America”) The Democratic nominee and staff will roll out after the convention with no clear agenda and vision, and will change their subject to whatever the media wants to talk to them about or what the agenda of the day is. (See: Gore and Prescription Drugs, Kerry talking about Flu Shots, etc.) They will also have a slogan that indicates they don’t think much of America right now. (See “Kerry: We Can Make American Work Again.” or “Kerry: Help is on the way.”) Come election day, 95% of adults will be able to identify what the Republicans stand for, even if only 40% of them agree with it; less than 50% of adults will be able to identify what the Democrats stand for, and while 60% of them agree with it, that won’t be enough, and the Republican candidate will win by a close margin. This will be then followed by four years of Democrats whinging about Diebold and generic, unspecified “fraud”. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/54 "2006-08-29T17:57:51Z")
> [@](#): > > The Democratic nominee and staff will roll out after the convention with no clear agenda and vision, and will change their subject to whatever the media wants to talk to them about or what the agenda of the day is. Are you seriously asserting that the Republicans don’t do this too? Are you kidding me? Their agenda is dictated completely by corporate interests and the religious right. When was the last time you say a GOP presidential candidate who was willing to stray an inch from either of those interests? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/55 "2006-08-29T18:21:48Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] Are you seriously asserting that the Republicans don’t do this too? Are you kidding me? Their agenda is dictated completely by corporate interests and the religious right. When was the last time you say a GOP presidential candidate who was willing to stray an inch from either of those interests? [/QUOTE] I suggest you read for comprehension. But just in case I used too many big words, let me restate: The Republicans will come out of their convention with an agenda consisting of a few bullet points. No matter what subject the media brings up, Republicans will find a way to immediately re-direct the conversation back to those few bullet-points. (“Well, Kent, we really brought you on Sesame Street today to talk about kittens.” “I appreciate the opportunity to talk about kittens, Ernie, but I think what the American people really want to know about is my plan to fight terrorism.” “But kittens are soft and cuddly! Surely we can…” “But no one who owns a kitten wants to lose that kitten to terrorists, Ernie, you can see that.”) The Democrats will come out of their convention with an agenda consisting of several dozen small, unrelated points. Whenever a new subject or issue grabs the headlines, Democrats will drop whatever they were previously talking about in order to opine upon the new subject. (See: Gore and Prescription Drugs, Kerry and Flu Shots.) ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/56 "2006-08-29T18:55:54Z")
[QUOTE=John Corrado] I suggest you read for comprehension. But just in case I used too many big words, let me restate: The Republicans will come out of their convention with an agenda consisting of a few bullet points. No matter what subject the media brings up, Republicans will find a way to immediately re-direct the conversation back to those few bullet-points. (“Well, Kent, we really brought you on Sesame Street today to talk about kittens.” “I appreciate the opportunity to talk about kittens, Ernie, but I think what the American people really want to know about is my plan to fight terrorism.” “But kittens are soft and cuddly! Surely we can…” “But no one who owns a kitten wants to lose that kitten to terrorists, Ernie, you can see that.”) The Democrats will come out of their convention with an agenda consisting of several dozen small, unrelated points. Whenever a new subject or issue grabs the headlines, Democrats will drop whatever they were previously talking about in order to opine upon the new subject. (See: Gore and Prescription Drugs, Kerry and Flu Shots.) [/QUOTE] This part I agree with. I accidentally quoted the wrong part of your post. I meant to quote this: > [@](#): > > On the Democrat side, the presumptive candidate will begin being pulled in by workers, constituency leaders, media reps, etc., and be hammered in to staking out positions and talking points on their pet issues. The Democratic nominee and staff will have it made clear to them that if they do not address specific issues and make specific stands, they will be cut off from future support. This is where I think the Republicans are every bit as culpable as the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/57 "2006-08-29T19:17:55Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] This part I agree with. I accidentally quoted the wrong part of your post. I meant to quote this: This is where I think the Republicans are every bit as culpable as the Democrats. [/QUOTE] I withdraw all statements about reading comprehension then. I certainly agree that Republican special interest groups dictate party policy as much as Democratic special interest groups. The difference is two-fold: First, Republican special interest groups tend to be larger but less numerous, which means they can be (and usually are) less satisfied with less individual packages. Second, Republican special interest groups seem much easier to placate with “in your heart, you know he’s with you” winks and nods; in comparison, Democratic special interests seem to demand direct, public statements and placation. That’s my opinion (thus, the forum); it’s hard to seperate “special interests demand attention” from “the candidate can’t stay on freakin’ message.” But the general trend seems to be that Republicans have an easier time staying on message, and that’s in part because their special interests seem to understand that winning the election and having the chance to govern is more important than being immediately verbally placated but then shut out of governance. Also, it would help if the Democrats nominate someone in 2008 who carries a happy, upbeat attitude. Only once since 1932 has a dour, somber candidate beaten the happy upbeat candidate (Nixon in 1968 beating out Humphrey). People who look like their dog just died (Kerry) or seem like they’re trying to hide a sneer (Dole) have a really hard time winning. And I’m not saying any of this as an attack on Democrats. When Republicans are splintered and Democrats nominate a happy, upbeat candidate who can stay on a focused message, they win. (1996, 1992, and 1976 as examples.) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2006, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/58 "2006-08-29T20:39:36Z")
The Democrats will probably make two big mistakes in 2008. The first will be their perennial problem of being less organized than the Republicans - Republicans might be right or wrong, but at least they’re focused. The second mistake will be the Democrats running against George Bush - if this plan shows any signs of working, the Republican candidate will simply distance himself from Bush. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2006, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/59 "2006-08-30T16:57:14Z")
[QUOTE=Little Nemo] The second mistake will be the Democrats running against George Bush - if this plan shows any signs of working, the Republican candidate will simply distance himself from Bush. [/QUOTE] This is a biggie. If the Republican candidate doesn’t have any obvious weak points (no scandals, marital infidelity, etc.) then the Dems will try to turn him into a surrogate for Bush, hinting that the Pubbie is somehow responsible for Iraq, foreign relations, ingrown hairs, and anything else they can think of. This is almost certain to backfire, since there is a 0% chance that the Republicans will run someone like Cheney or Rice, whom these charges might actually stick to. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2006, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495/60 "2006-08-30T19:40:34Z")
[QUOTE=Caridwen] The dems love Hillary? Since when? At any of the Dem blogs/sites she’s never even in the top 5. . [/QUOTE] [http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/nation/15395280.htm](http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/nation/15395280.htm) \*Clinton, Giuliani top poll as presidential choices By Michael McAuliff New York Daily News (MCT) WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are America’s top choices to run for President, but a new poll says the Democratic senator faces a tougher fight than the GOP ex-mayor in getting nominated. Giuliani and Clinton each are the first choice of 32 percent of their parties’ voters, the survey by RT Strategies and the Cook Political Report found\* [http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm](http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm) \*Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party’s candidate for president." If unsure: “Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?” Names rotated ``` % ``` ALL Democrats Hillary Clinton 29 40 Al Gore 13 18 John Edwards 11 11 - [http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060611/NEWS09/606110338/1001/archive](http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060611/NEWS09/606110338/1001/archive) _Experts say it’s the first poll showing anyone besides Clinton as the preferred Democrat in the race for the White House._ Thus, you are wrong. She may or may not be able to win the election, but she \*is \* the most popular Dem candidate and has been for a while. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2008-presidential-elections-how-will-the-dems-screw-this-one-up/370495.md?page=4)