# The 2009 NFL draft thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 8, 2009, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914 "2009-02-08T10:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/241 "2009-04-24T13:32:43Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > With enough people willing to use this sort of logic, we could see who’s drafted influenced by what contract they’re willing to take, which could drive down prices, especially at the very top. > > In the end, this ultimately hurts rookies since they’d end up getting paid less - but you can generally count on people to act in their immediate self interest, not in the interest in people that will be in similar positions in the future. Frankly, I think the teams/GMs picking #1 over the last ten years are responsible for the ridiculously large numbers teams have to pay the top overall pick. There is absolutely no excuse for the team drafting first not to have a deal in place beforehand. Regardless of what teams say, there is never a guy you “must” take at the top; look at the Texans with Mario Williams. Everyone “knew” that the Texans had to take Reggie Bush, except for Charlie Casserly… who got lambasted at the time. Parcells got it right last year, too, by playing Jake Long and the other candidates off against each other, although the Falcons might have effed it up for everyone else with the contract they gave Matt Ryan. Al Davis (with JaMarcus Russell) and the 49ers (with Alex Smith) on the other hand got it totally wrong. That’s led to this idea among agents and front office personnel that everyone in the first round should get 5% more than their counterparts last year did. Screw that- team revenues don’t increase by 5% year on year. > [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > Given how often first rounders bust, is it worth mortgaging next year’s draft for the chance at one extra first rounder or second rounder? I think you guys may be overthinking this trade a bit. A second-rounder next year may just be the best offer the Chiefs got- and while obviously you wouldn’t take next year’s second round pick over this year’s second round pick, you’d probably take it over this year’s fourth round pick. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/242 "2009-04-24T15:04:13Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I think you guys may be overthinking this trade a bit. A second-rounder next year may just be the best offer the Chiefs got- and while obviously you wouldn’t take next year’s second round pick over this year’s second round pick, you’d probably take it over this year’s fourth round pick. Well the conversation seems to have shifted somewhat, which is mostly my doing. Don’t worry, this particular hijack will end shortly. Regarding the Gonzo trade specifically, presumably the Chiefs could have gotten a lesser degree of compensation in 2009 draft picks, probably a 3rd, or maybe a 3rd and a 5th or 6th, but Atlanta wanted to hold on to this year’s 2nd Rounder because (I imagine) they’d already spent it in their heads. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/243 "2009-04-24T20:25:23Z")
[Peter King’s mock draft](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/04/24/mock/index.html). I don’t really have any comment, except to say that if New England drafts Percy Harvin in the 1st Round, I’ll fuck my uncle. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/244 "2009-04-24T20:34:22Z")
I can’t understand why the pundits keep assuming Snyder will do something as stupid as setting his franchise back three years by trading up for Sanchez. I’m really starting to hope that the Bucs trade up for B.J. Raji. He could be a bigger Warren Sapp… and apart from Crabtree and Curry, he’s the only 1st-rounder I’m really in love with. ETA: Any Gators fan will tell you that UF had six guys on their roster last season with sub-4.3 speed… and three of them were wideouts. Harvin is nothing special. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/245 "2009-04-24T21:11:59Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I can’t understand why the pundits keep assuming Snyder will do something as stupid as setting his franchise back three years by trading up for Sanchez… 1. His record of doing stupid things like that. 2. Most of the pundits I’ve heard on the subject indicate that “sources” tell them it’s in the cards, so they’re not making it up out of thin air. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/246 "2009-04-24T21:29:02Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > [Peter King’s mock draft](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/04/24/mock/index.html). I don’t really have any comment, except to say that if New England drafts Percy Harvin in the 1st Round, I’ll fuck my uncle. Eugene Monroe going AFTER A. Smith? Tyson Jackson at 3? Aaron Gholston… I mean Maybin before Orakpo? Barwin at 17? I like Peter King, but those are some outlandish picks. I think he’s being misled by his sources to throw off other teams. Ahhhh the joys of public misinformation surrounding the draft. Less than 24 hours. Tick Tick Tick… ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/247 "2009-04-24T21:30:16Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I can’t understand why the pundits keep assuming Snyder will do something as stupid as setting his franchise back three years by trading up for Sanchez. Here’s the thing. I’m not convinced that Snyder’s strategy is a bad one. Only about 20% of draftees turn out to be worth a damn, in the first and second rounds its something like 50% and 40% success rate. Based on that logic, if you can turn draft picks into proven talent you are coming out ahead. The problem isn’t Snyder playing fast and loose with draft picks, the problem is that he’s been very poor at evaluating the talent he’s doing it to get. If he repeatedly packages picks and as a result dramatically increases his success rate, then it’s a good strategy. All that of course depends on if Sanchez is going to be worth a damn or not. I think it’s less than 50-50. If Snyder is sure he’ll get a player, then I bet he does it. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/248 "2009-04-24T21:34:10Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Eugene Monroe going AFTER A. Smith? Tyson Jackson at 3? Aaron Gholston… I mean Maybin before Orakpo? Barwin at 17? > > I like Peter King, but those are some outlandish picks. I think he’s being misled by his sources to throw off other teams. Ahhhh the joys of public misinformation surrounding the draft. > > Less than 24 hours. Tick Tick Tick… Peter King is famously bad a predicting things in the NFL. I like reading his column and he has good access, but predicting which way the wind is blowing is not his strength. That said, here’s [Kiper’s final Mock](http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/insider/columns/story?id=4095104). > [@](#): > > 1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia > > 2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor > > 3. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU > > 4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC > > 5. Cleveland Browns: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest > > 6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama > > 7. Oakland Raiders: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia > > 8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech > > 9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College > > 10. San Francisco 49ers: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri > > 11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas > > 12. Denver Broncos: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee > > 13. Washington Redskins: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC > > 14. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State > > 15. Houston Texans: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State > > 16. San Diego Chargers: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi > > 17. New York Jets: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida > > 18. Denver Broncos (from CHI): Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State > > 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State > > 20. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC > > 21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia > > 22. Minnesota Vikings: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers > > 23. New England Patriots: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut > > 24. Atlanta Falcons: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois > > 25. Miami Dolphins: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland > > 26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State > > 27. Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi > > 28. Buffalo Bills (from PHI, which received from CAR): Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma > > 29. New York Giants: Clay Matthews, OLB, USC > > 30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut > > 31. Arizona Cardinals: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State > > 32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Max Unger, C, Oregon He agrees on just about all those guys. Maybe some actual information found it’s way out, or maybe they are just copying off each other. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/249 "2009-04-24T21:47:04Z")
Tyson Jackson came out of nowhere, didn’t he? I didn’t even hear about him as a top 15 pick until a week or two ago. Those players scare me. ---
**Author:** ![tds1273](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/df705f/32.png) [@tds1273](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tds1273)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/250 "2009-04-24T21:53:51Z")
I dunno. If the Hawks are lucky enough to have Curry fall to them, barring any trades, he won’t make it to 5. They had the best LB corps in football, they’re now down Peterson and, last I heard, still having trouble signing Hill. I still think Ruskell will use his later-round magic to address QB with either White or Bomar. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/251 "2009-04-24T22:01:48Z")
The uncertainty about Crabtree and Sanchez is making predicting the top 10 picks really difficult. Goddamn Seahawks, make up your minds! ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/252 "2009-04-24T22:07:56Z")
> [@](#): > > 1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia > > … > 20. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC It’s not like the Lions don’t need QB and LB, but for God’s sake people you need a line! ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/253 "2009-04-24T22:12:17Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > It’s not like the Lions don’t need QB and LB, but for God’s sake people you need a line! If the Lions went that route and got Eben Britton at the top of round 2, I think they’ll be in pretty great shape. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/254 "2009-04-24T22:43:11Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Barwin at 17? I forgot this…[Connor Barwin’s Pro Day](http://profootball.scout.com/2/849052.html). Him at 17 is no surprise. I’d love to have this guy on my team. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/255 "2009-04-24T22:49:17Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > If the Lions went that route and got Eben Britton at the top of round 2, I think they’ll be in pretty great shape. I can’t complain about that, but I think they’d be even better with Jason Smith, Rey Maualalalalalalaga, and Larry English. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2009, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/256 "2009-04-24T23:18:48Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > I can’t complain about that, but I think they’d be even better with Jason Smith, Rey Maualalalalalalaga, and Larry English. No argument from me. Love all those guys at those spots. Leaving the QB question unanswered is a risk though. Worth it for the strides they could make on the lines though. Imagine if they get Duke Robinson or Andrew Levitre at the top of the third to go with that? ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2009, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/257 "2009-04-25T00:38:13Z")
Well if they do go QB I hope they have the patience to let him bench one year. They have to flat out decide this year will only be rebuilding, and not throw him to the wolves(and packers and vikings). ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2009, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/258 "2009-04-25T01:30:04Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Tyson Jackson came out of nowhere, didn’t he? I didn’t even hear about him as a top 15 pick until a week or two ago. Those players scare me. Blame the move to 3-4 for his meteoric rise. I was stunned that a DE with only 4.5 sacks this year could be a top 10 pick. But so many draftniks (and maybe many GMs) are looking for guys who “fit” their system, and a 6-4, 298 pound beast who is stout against the run fits the 3-4 DE mold almost perfectly. And, since there are so few college teams running the 3-4, there isn’t a whole lot of guys to compete with Tyson. So he is, by default, the best projected 3-4 DE by a far margin. Much the same can be said for the OLB position. Now that more pro teams are looking for 3-4 OLB who can pass rush, all those college DE tweeners are now projected to be OLBs in a 3-4. Orakpo, Brown, Maybin, Barwin, on and on. These guys who a couple years ago would have been considered maybe too small to play De in the NFL are now getting more looks and rising up draft boards. I think we are nearing the end of the time when the Steelers could grab some OLB like Harrison, off the street and turn him into the defensive player of the year. Too many teams going to the 3-4 now. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2009, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/259 "2009-04-25T02:53:27Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > No argument from me. Love all those guys at those spots. Leaving the QB question unanswered is a risk though. Worth it for the strides they could make on the lines though. Imagine if they get Duke Robinson or Andrew Levitre at the top of the third to go with that? I’m down with Culpepper there for a year or two. Besides, there’s a Drew Stanton waiting in the wings. I’d even be down for picking up a Brian Hoyer in the third or fourth. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2009, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914/260 "2009-04-25T02:55:02Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I forgot this…[Connor Barwin’s Pro Day](http://profootball.scout.com/2/849052.html). > > Him at 17 is no surprise. I’d love to have this guy on my team. Don’t get me wrong, I really, really like him. He is, to my mind, an outstanding college player who is willing (and able in most cases) to do whatever is necessary to help his team. And it was a great benefit for him to move to DE his senior year, because it got him up a few rounds in the draft. But, and its a big but, for as good a college player he is, he’s not ready for the NFL. He is, at best, a project with good upside. But I think it will be a few years before he develops into a starter in the NFL (whether that is as a TE or a OLB or a DE or a LS or that one guy who does that one thing that the team needs). Which is great … for a second round pick. Not in the middle of the first. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2009-nfl-draft-thread/484914.md?page=14)