# The 2012 Election Schadenfreude thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2012, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156 "2012-11-06T23:31:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/101 "2012-11-09T20:16:51Z")
I saw that an adviser said Romney was shellshocked at the loss, but didn’t pay much attention to a single, unattributed quote. Apparently, it was [true](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2012/11/_2012_election_facts_in_the_obama_romney_showdown_truth_beat_lies_and_spin.html). > [@](#): > > On election night, there was one final reckoning. Obama’s campaign, according to Michael Scherer of Time, was running 66,000 electoral simulations every night on a massive database of polls and voter contact information. That’s how the campaign knew its precise standing in each swing state and allocated resources so that it swept all but North Carolina. Romney, on the other hand, was “shellshocked” by the returns, according to Jan Crawford of CBS News. Crawford says Romney’s strategists “believed the public/media polls were skewed … [T]heir internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.” This rejection of external evidence sealed Romney’s fate. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/102 "2012-11-09T20:36:21Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > I saw that an adviser said Romney was shellshocked at the loss, but didn’t pay much attention to a single, unattributed quote. Apparently, it was [true](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2012/11/_2012_election_facts_in_the_obama_romney_showdown_truth_beat_lies_and_spin.html). I’m quite enjoying the article I quoted in another thread: > [@It was Fox wot lost it](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-was-fox-wot-lost-it/640469/9): > > I just ran across this CBS article and have been looking for a thread to post it in. This one’s as good as any. > > Apparently the Romney campaign [was relying on Fox for their news](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/). During the election itself, definitely, but from the sound of it during the campaign as well: > > > [@](#): > > > > Mitt Romney’s campaign got its first hint something was wrong on the afternoon of Election Day, when state campaign workers on the ground began reporting huge turnout in areas favorable to President Obama: northeastern Ohio, northern Virginia, central Florida and Miami-Dade. > > […] > > They just couldn’t believe they had been so wrong. And maybe they weren’t: There was Karl Rove on Fox saying Ohio wasn’t settled, so campaign aides decided to wait. > > […] > > They thought intensity and enthusiasm were on their side this time - poll after poll showed Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats - and that would translate into votes for Romney. > > > > As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn’t reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night. > > They listened to Fox, they accepted the bullshit skew theories, and they believed their own hype. I think it’s crystal clear that the constant right wing propaganda machine is really starting to backfire on them. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/103 "2012-11-09T20:58:09Z")
How any campaign could be so inept simply boggles the mind. Trusting internal polling and FOX News? Unbelievable. OTOH, from the same link in my last post: > [@](#): > > Obama’s campaign, according to Michael Scherer of Time, was running 66,000 electoral simulations every night on a massive database of polls and voter contact information. That’s how the campaign knew its precise standing in each swing state and allocated resources so that it swept all but North Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/104 "2012-11-09T21:00:32Z")
Turns out science trumps the fuck outta faith. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/105 "2012-11-09T22:13:41Z")
> [@Bosstone](#): > > Turns out science trumps the fuck outta faith. My husband was trying to tell me last night that Republicanism is more like a religion than a political orientation, in that people don’t require evidence to believe it works. I’m wondering if thinking of Republicans this way will make me a more tolerant person. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/106 "2012-11-09T22:21:44Z")
> [@olivesmarch4th](#): > > My husband was trying to tell me last night that Republicanism is more like a religion than a political orientation, in that people don’t require evidence to believe it works. I’m wondering if thinking of Republicans this way will make me a more tolerant person. I don’t know if it will make you more tolerant, but it will definitely make you more tuned into reality. In the 80’s, it was the democrats who were the faith-based political party, believing strongly that America would vote for true liberal candidates if they were just good people and stuck to liberal principles. Of course, that was a faith-based stance, not borne out in any evidence. Now the exact opposite is true. Obama and Clinton have been extreme centerist presidents, and the republicans keep chanting to themselves that if only they would run true conservatives and stick to their conservative values, they will win the elections. This is why Lindsay Graham said he would throw up if he kept hearing republicans say that they weren’t conservative enough. He knows that’s not the problem. He’s one of the few possibly reality-based republicans left. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/107 "2012-11-09T23:37:55Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Now the exact opposite is true. Obama and Clinton have been extreme centerist presidents, and the republicans keep chanting to themselves that if only they would run true conservatives and stick to their conservative values, they will win the elections. This is why Lindsay Graham said he would throw up if he kept hearing republicans say that they weren’t conservative enough. He knows that’s not the problem. He’s one of the few possibly reality-based republicans left. The Rebublicans’ denial about their national reputation is certainly a good example of faith-based lunacy, but I was commenting more in terms of the actual tenets of conservatism. It’s an ‘‘it works because it works’’ or even worse, an ‘‘it works because it _should_ work’’ attitude. All the shoulds in the world cannot change the reality that deregulation of corporations and tax breaks for the rich fucked over our economy in a massive way. The reason I liked the religion analogy is that I’m generally very cool about different faiths, as long as people aren’t obnoxious about it. If it really is more about emotions than reason, well, I can live with that - as long as extremists stay the fuck out of my way. The problem is, the whole time, I’ve been fighting this ideology as if they could somehow be reasoned out of it. ---
**Author:** ![regginbrow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ba9def/32.png) [@regginbrow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/regginbrow)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/108 "2012-11-10T03:47:04Z")
> [@Bosstone](#): > > I’m quite enjoying the article I quoted in another thread: Thank you for pointing this out to me. I would like to add my own schadenfreude to this thread: > [@](#): > > They made three key miscalculations, in part because this race bucked historical trends: > > 1. They misread turnout. They expected it to be between 2004 and 2008 levels, with a plus-2 or plus-3 Democratic electorate, instead of plus-7 as it was in 2008. Their assumptions were wrong on both sides: The president’s base turned out and Romney’s did not. More African-Americans voted in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida than in 2008. And fewer Republicans did: Romney got just over 2 million fewer votes than John McCain. > > 2. Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren’t oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren’t as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents. > > 3. Undecided voters. The perception is they always break for the challenger, since people know the incumbent and would have decided already if they were backing him. Romney was counting on that trend to continue. Instead, exit polls show Mr. Obama won among people who made up their minds on Election Day and in the few days before the election. So maybe Romney, after running for six years, was in the same position as the incumbent. Numbers 1 and 2 are what I and other kept arguing with **OMG** , **adaher** , and others who didn’t believe the polling data. These were proved by the election results, which were very close to a certain NY Times writer’s projection, amongst others, and with straight polling in general. I believe it was **OMG** who said something along the line of ‘I don’t care what Nate Silver has to say.’ Yeah! Math, bitch! /Jesse Pinkman Maybe this will be an eye-opener to the right, they will start taking a closer look at evidence based science, and a revolution of acceptance of evolution and climate-change will take place. Maybe they’ll realize they can’t just ignore evidence when it doesn’t conform to their beliefs. It’s possible, right? ☹ ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/109 "2012-11-10T04:12:06Z")
> [@olivesmarch4th](#): > > The Rebublicans’ denial about their national reputation is certainly a good example of faith-based lunacy, but I was commenting more in terms of the actual tenets of conservatism. It’s an ‘‘it works because it works’’ or even worse, an ‘‘it works because it _should_ work’’ attitude. All the shoulds in the world cannot change the reality that deregulation of corporations and tax breaks for the rich fucked over our economy in a massive way. The reason I liked the religion analogy is that I’m generally very cool about different faiths, as long as people aren’t obnoxious about it. If it really is more about emotions than reason, well, I can live with that - as long as extremists stay the fuck out of my way. The problem is, the whole time, I’ve been fighting this ideology as if they could somehow be reasoned out of it. Oh, haha, yeah. No, there’s no reasoning with these people. Glad you’ve realized that. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/110 "2012-11-10T06:33:31Z")
> [@regginbrow](#): > > Maybe this will be an eye-opener to the right, they will start taking a closer look at evidence based science, and a revolution of acceptance of evolution and climate-change will take place. Maybe they’ll realize they can’t just ignore evidence when it doesn’t conform to their beliefs. It’s possible, right? You can get away with ignoring the evidence on the reality of evolution and climate change and immunology and economics and still succeed in politics. But when you’re a politician and you start ignoring the evidence on political realities, you’re on your way out the door. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/111 "2012-11-10T08:40:37Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > You can get away with ignoring the evidence on the reality of evolution and climate change and immunology and economics and still succeed in politics. For a while; but reality tends to catch up with people in the end anyway. Ideological purity won’t stop a plague or famine or economic recession. ---
**Author:** ![kjckjc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e36b37/32.png) [@kjckjc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kjckjc)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/112 "2012-11-10T14:24:06Z")
I still think the election was fixed, and I will tell you why: Chuck Norris is a Republican and wanted Romney to win. Honestly, when was the last time Chuck Norris wanted something and then didn’t get it? Right? Never. ---
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/113 "2012-11-10T23:36:40Z")
From **Fiddle Peghead** ’s post about the “66,000 electoral simulations every night”: what happens when Karl Rove or somebody starts doing that, too? Lots of computer nerds in the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/114 "2012-11-11T00:16:51Z")
> [@a35362](#): > > From **Fiddle Peghead** ’s post about the “66,000 electoral simulations every night”: what happens when Karl Rove or somebody starts doing that, too? Lots of computer nerds in the GOP. One can only hope. See, when they start acknowledging reality and make decisions based off it, that’s a huge step up from _lying constantly_. I don’t want Democrats to win, necessarily. I just want sensibility to win. Obama has that in spades and the Republicans barely remember what it is. ---
**Author:** ![detop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/bcef8e/32.png) [@detop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/detop)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/115 "2012-11-11T00:37:28Z")
> [@Bosstone](#): > > One can only hope. > > See, when they start acknowledging reality and make decisions based off it, that’s a huge step up from _lying constantly_. > > I don’t want Democrats to win, necessarily. I just want sensibility to win. Obama has that in spades and the Republicans barely remember what it is. Not sure of that. An example out of history. During World War II, the Japanese navy wanted to finish the job of destroying the USN started at Pearl Harbor, so they decided to lay a trap for them, by invading Midway. But some of them were nervous about the whole prospect. To appease their fears, they decided to wargame the operation. Lo and behold ! The results were that the USN won a strategic victory “Impossible”, said the umpires and proceeded to change the results to “prove” that they were wrong. So, when the IJN sailed for their rendez-vous with history in 1942, they believed that they were headed to a glorious victory. They ended with an ignominious defeat. So, they can run any amount of simulations they want, but if the results they get don’t agree with their pre-conceived notions and they choose to ignore them, history might repeat itself. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/116 "2012-11-11T00:41:03Z")
> [@detop](#): > > So, they can run any amount of simulations they want, but if the results they get don’t agree with their pre-conceived notions and they choose to ignore them, history might repeat itself. [No need to go back quite so far.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/117 "2012-11-11T01:21:47Z")
> [@regginbrow](#): > > Maybe this will be an eye-opener to the right, they will start taking a closer look at evidence based science, and a revolution of acceptance of evolution and climate-change will take place. Maybe they’ll realize they can’t just ignore evidence when it doesn’t conform to their beliefs. It’s possible, right? ☹ I dunno, a scientifically sophisticated RW could be . . . dangerous. And I don’t mean electorally . . . We’re talking 2020s-Style Death Rays . . . ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/118 "2012-11-11T03:13:59Z")
> [@detop](#): > > So, they can run any amount of simulations they want, but if the results they get don’t agree with their pre-conceived notions and they choose to ignore them, history might repeat itself. > [@Gyrate](#): > > [No need to go back quite so far.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002) Those would fall into the lying constantly bucket, even if only to themselves. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/119 "2012-11-11T15:41:15Z")
Creating my own bit of schadenfruede, my daughter and I painted a “Congratulations Mr. President” sign and stuck it in our front yard yesterday. I posted some pics on my FB page and you may be able to [see them here](https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.4934253162808.197173.1492932477&type=1). ---
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156/120 "2012-11-11T16:16:08Z")
Mark Morford’s column: [The Great Obamagasm of 2012](http://blog.sfgate.com/morford/2012/11/06/obamagasm/). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-election-schadenfreude-thread/640156.md?page=7)