# The 2012 Presidental Election (Electoral College Only) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 23, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848 "2012-05-23T16:21:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![AndyLee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/898d66/32.png) [@AndyLee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndyLee)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/1 "2012-05-23T16:21:50Z")
I was visiting a site > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election And they have a USA Electoral College map you can play aroudn with. President Obama seems so far ahead, I can’t work of any way for Mitt Romney to win it. As a fun exercise I thought it would be interesting to do a scenereo where you could get Mitt Romney enough states to get to 270. I don’t care who you’re actually in favor of, I just thought it’d be cool to kind of present a REALISTIC scenerio where he could win Thanks ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/2 "2012-05-23T16:26:18Z")
> [@AndyLee](#): > > I don’t care who you’re actually in favor of, I just thought it’d be cool to kind of present a REALISTIC scenerio where he could win Sure. Start with their map. Then have Romney take FL, NC, PA and OH. VA and IA can be topping on the cake. Quite realistic. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/3 "2012-05-23T17:17:53Z")
While there are scenarios that are reasonable for Romney, the truth is he has a far narrowed window than Obama. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/4 "2012-05-23T17:21:31Z")
I don’t think there’s much of a chance Romney gets PA- PA hasn’t gone R since '88. I feel pretty confident that Obama will get 297 or more electoral votes: PA, OH, VA, CO, NH, WI (Dukakis won WI!!), and NV are pretty solid for him, and I think he might get IA too. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/5 "2012-05-23T17:21:38Z")
Anyone know the source of this map or what or who is “[270towin.com](http://270towin.com)”? I ask because when I click the link, first thing I see, at the top of the page, is a Newsmax ad saying, “Will this video cost Obama the election?” And I know what [Newsmax](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newsmax) is. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/6 "2012-05-23T17:33:59Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Sure. Start with their map. Then have Romney take FL, NC, **PA and OH**. VA and IA can be topping on the cake. Quite realistic. I am reminded of the tale of the quarterback, the gymnast, and the economist stranded on a desert island. Searching for food, they came across a coconut tree. The quarterback slammed into the tree truck, attempting to shake some coconuts loose, without success. The gymnast tried to climb the smooth branchless trunk, also without success. The economist pondered the situation, and finally said, “Assuming that there’s a ladder on this island…”. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/7 "2012-05-23T17:49:50Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Anyone know the source of this map or what or who is “[270towin.com](http://270towin.com)”? I ask because when I click the link, first thing I see, at the top of the page, is a Newsmax ad saying, “Will this video cost Obama the election?” And I know what [Newsmax](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newsmax) is. :dubious: No idea were 270towin is from, but [RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)has a somewhat similar map. It lists FL, NC, OH, VA and IA as tossers, and PA leaning Obama. Clicking the make your own map link and giving those states to Romney yields 271 electoral votes for him. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/8 "2012-05-23T17:50:09Z")
This is the most plausible route to victory IMO: [http://www.270towin.com/2012\_election\_predictions.php?mapid=lBe](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lBe) Basically 2008 with IN, VA, NC, OH, FL, and NH swapped. I find it almost impossible to conceive of a situation in which Romney wins PA but not VA. And he basically can’t win without three out of four of VA, OH, FL, and PA. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/9 "2012-05-23T18:54:40Z")
Interesting. IMHO, Pennsylvania will go for Obama, but even with this he needs to win either Florida or Ohio or I don’t think he can pull it out. If he wins 2 of these 3, I believe he will take the election, if not, I don’t see his path to victory. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2012, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/10 "2012-05-23T18:55:54Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > \ And he basically can’t win without three out of four of VA, OH, FL, and PA. This. And Obama can’t win without winning two of these states. ---
**Author:** ![Nametag](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nametag/32/406_2.png) [@Nametag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nametag)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2012, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/11 "2012-05-26T01:59:43Z")
I think Obama can pick up PA, IA, and WI fairly easily; he needs OH, which will be a battleground, or FL, which has a comfortable-looking margin of registered Democrats, but doesn’t usually play out that way. I think this election’s going to be a squeaker. ---
**Author:** ![JBGUSA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/258eb7/32.png) [@JBGUSA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JBGUSA)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2012, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/12 "2012-05-26T02:03:33Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Sure. Start with their map. Then have Romney take FL, NC, PA and OH. VA and IA can be topping on the cake. Quite realistic. I expect PA stays Democratic. Otherwise I agree with this post. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2012, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/13 "2012-05-26T02:11:26Z")
The WashPost had an article about this recently. Their point was that Romney (or any Republican nominee in 2012) has a low ceiling for electoral votes, but a high floor. Romney can get to 270 or higher, just not much higher. But he has fewer states to flip than Obama. OTOH, Obama could lose or win or win big. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2012, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/14 "2012-05-27T07:33:57Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Sure. Start with their map. Then have Romney take FL, NC, PA and OH. VA and IA can be topping on the cake. Quite realistic. If [Governor Scott’s voter-rolls purge](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=653037) is not stopped and Romney wins Florida, there’s gonna be trouble (I’ll be making some little of it myself), and Romney’s Admin will be tainted with illegitimacy like W’s was (yes, both terms, don’t get me started on Ohio in 2004). [Never again!](http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Voter_roll_purge_in_the_2000_Florida_election) :mad: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2012, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/15 "2012-05-27T07:41:17Z")
[Ohio](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2004) in [2004.](http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=U.S._election_irregularities_in_2004) Never again! :mad::mad::mad: ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2012, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/16 "2012-05-27T15:09:56Z")
Yawn. Call us when you find _real_ voter fraud. Oh wait, you can’t because upstanding states have passed voter ID laws that retroactively prevented it from taking place. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2012, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/17 "2012-05-27T19:53:00Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Yawn. Call us when you find _real_ voter fraud. Oh wait, you can’t because upstanding states have passed voter ID laws that retroactively prevented it from taking place. Are you talking to me? Because I agree with everything you’re saying, that was **my** point WRT to the Florida voter-roll purges, including the one in 2000 and [the one going on now.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=653037) ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2012, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/18 "2012-05-27T20:08:03Z")
Oops, sorry. I thought the recent exchange in the linked thread plus the idea of “retroactively” preventing fraud–i.e., that’s why there is no evidence of it–would have made the intended sarcasm clear. Sorry for the confusion. Just saw this post on [imgur](http://imgur.com/gallery/OYacc), and though I don’t think I agree with its text I think I’ll start incorporating it. ([percontation point)](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony_punctuation#Percontation_point) ---
**Author:** ![JBGUSA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/258eb7/32.png) [@JBGUSA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JBGUSA)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2012, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/19 "2012-05-28T01:16:21Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > If [Governor Scott’s voter-rolls purge](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=653037) is not stopped and Romney wins Florida, there’s gonna be trouble (I’ll be making some little of it myself), and Romney’s Admin will be tainted with illegitimacy like W’s was (yes, both terms, don’t get me started on Ohio in 2004). [Never again!](http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Voter_roll_purge_in_the_2000_Florida_election) :mad: That’s very pejorative. In 1972 the shoe was on the other foot, and Humphrey won Ohio’s primary with fake votes from black precincts, according to Hunter Thompson’s book, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail, 1972. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2012, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848/20 "2012-05-28T01:16:23Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > If [Governor Scott’s voter-rolls purge](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=653037) is not stopped and Romney wins Florida, there’s gonna be trouble (I’ll be making some little of it myself), Second Amendment remedies? :rolleyes: [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2012-presidental-election-electoral-college-only/622848.md?page=2)