# The 2016 Republican candidates **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 100
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1982 "2015-09-13T09:58:52Z")
PJ O’Rourke’s take on all of this for the [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34199866) is hilarious. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1983 "2015-09-13T10:26:55Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > PJ O’Rourke’s take on all of this for the [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34199866) is hilarious. It fell flat for me. I am not in love with his attempt at UKesque humor. It seems forced. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1984 "2015-09-13T10:43:24Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > PJ O’Rourke’s take on all of this for the [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34199866) is hilarious. I read about 1/3 of the way in and still hadn’t gotten to the funny parts. Different tastes, I guess. 25 years ago, O’Rourke’s combination of cynicism and insight was a thing of beauty. Now all I see is cynicism not only without the insight, but without any regard for the truth. For instance: > [@](#): > > I mean, at this point in the 2008 American presidential race, Barack Hussein Obama was about as likely to get the Democratic nomination as a small-time community organising senator from Illinois with a name like a bad joke about a jihadist website. On Sunday, November 12, 2006, the Washington Post Outlook section, front page, above the fold, was entirely taken up by a big “Hillary v. Obama” head, with pictures of the two, looking like they were facing off against each other. Yep, two years before the 2008 election, the paper of record of the D.C. political classes was treating Obama as basically co-equal with Hillary. At this point in 2007, he was certainly running behind Hillary, but the press never ceased to treat him as Hillary’s main rival (John Edwards? Who’s that?) and never counted him out. For cynicism to _work_, it’s at least got to be _accurate_. ISTM that O’Rourke’s turned into the same sort of loudmouthed ignoramus that he’s trying to shoot down. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1985 "2015-09-21T14:38:44Z")
_The New Yorker_ on Mitt’s slumber-party diary: [http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/27/mitt-romneys-slumber-party-diary](http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/27/mitt-romneys-slumber-party-diary) ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1986 "2015-09-21T15:32:51Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > _The New Yorker_ on Mitt’s slumber-party diary: [Mitt Romney’s Slumber-Party Diary | The New Yorker](http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/27/mitt-romneys-slumber-party-diary) P. J. O’Rourke was much funnier than that pathetic piece by Paul Rudnick, someone I normally like. BTW, O’Rourke’s is a transcribed radio talk so it probably loses something in print. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1987 "2015-09-30T13:13:27Z")
What beat Fiorina in 2010 - and might also in 2016: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/carly-fiorina-california-campaign/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/carly-fiorina-california-campaign/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1988 "2015-09-30T14:03:30Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I’ll take that bet. US$20 - to be payable within one month of Inauguration Day. Deal? You might have won that bet already, given Walker’s pulled out. Is it too late for anyone else to enter the race? ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1989 "2015-09-30T17:50:17Z")
Just you wait. Let a couple more candidates implode, and you’ll see Mittens step forth as the savior of the Republicans Party. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1990 "2015-09-30T19:41:50Z")
[CNBC’s debate criteria](http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/30/cnbc-republican-debate-criteria.html) for their October show seems pretty inclusive. 1% or better overall and 3% or better for the 8 o’clock debate. Who do you think will be out, at the kid’s table and in the big leagues? In other poll news, [The Chicago Sun-Times says Trump is most popular with uneducated Republicans.](http://national.suntimes.com/national-world-news/7/72/1908240/poll-uneducated-republicans-love-donald-trump-the-most) Which reminds me that all this teeth gnashing that 28% of the population is falling for the proud asshole with no policy except dirty Messicans and broads be illin’ isn’t exactly correct. Aren’t most of these polls of Republican voters and not the nation at large? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1991 "2015-09-30T19:57:07Z")
[Going by their latest poll only](http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/15398%20NBCWSJ%20September%20Poll%20(2).pdf), those hitting 3% min are: > [@](#): > > Donald Trump … 21 > Ben Carson … 20 > Marco Rubio … 11 > Carly Fiorina … 11 > Jeb Bush … 7 > John Kasich … 6 > Ted Cruz … 5 > Rand Paul … 3 > Chris Christie … 3 That’s nine. At the kiddie table, motivated by something other than hope of winning, we have: > [@](#): > > Mike Huckabee … 2 > Rick Santorum … 1 > Bobby Jindal … 1 That’s gonna be lots of fun to watch, in a trainwrecky kind of way. And at below 1% overall, watching on TV at their hotel rooms: > [@](#): > > Lindsey Graham … - > George Pataki … - > Jim Gilmore … - ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1992 "2015-09-30T20:47:21Z")
I’m sure the rest of the field wants to keep Rand around to jab at Trump. Otherwise, I’d say cut it off at 5%. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1993 "2015-10-01T12:43:19Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Going by their latest poll only, those hitting 3% min are:That’s nine. Expanding a bit mostly just using Real Clear Politics averages for the period (which included 2 that aren’t in the accepted polls for the standard but I’m not working the math for them all) The atandards actually say 2.5 average will be rounded to meet the test of 3% so that’s the actual cut off. The Main Debate would be > [@](#): > > Trump 23.3 > Carson 16.5 > Fiorina 11.8 > Rubio 9.5 > Bush 9.0 > Cruz 6.2 > Kasich 3.3 > Huckabee 3.0 > Christie 3.0 > Paul 2.3 (dropping the two that aren’t included bumps his average 2.75 so he’s just barely in if he can sustain) The secondary debate only requires a 1% in any one of the named polls. Already qualified for that are: > [@](#): > > Jindal > Santorum > Pataki Graham is still looking for his lone 1% and Gilmoe isn’t even listed on RCP anymore and I am not digging. Paul’s margin is wafer thin. He’s really the big question. Kasich, Huckabee, and Christie all performed the worst in the two polls that wouldn’t be included in the debate averages but pulled them down above. With that extra breathing room, they likely all make it. Graham and Gilmore need a pollster to miscode just a couple responses in one poll. I doubt Gilmore does. There’s a chance for Graham who just pulled a 1% in the USA Today poll. Too bad, for him, that one didn’t count. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1994 "2015-10-01T13:53:41Z")
That’s a lot of people in the relegation zone, all of whom are going to have to make a big noise other than the Hunger Games cannon. These debates are not getting more informative, but they \*are \*getting more entertaining. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1995 "2015-10-01T13:55:52Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > That’s a lot of people in the relegation zone, all of whom are going to have to make a big noise other than the Hunger Games cannon. These debates are not getting more informative, but they \*are \*getting more entertaining. It’s appropriate that Trump’s at the top, given the increasing resemblance of this whole process to an episode of _The Apprentice_. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1996 "2015-10-01T14:23:15Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > It’s appropriate that Trump’s at the top, given the increasing resemblance of this whole process to an episode of _The Apprentice_. “You’re _all_ fired! And I guess that leaves me the nominee.” ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1997 "2015-10-01T15:53:48Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > “You’re _all_ fired! And I guess that leaves me the nominee.” You _know_ he’s thought it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2015, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1998 "2015-11-02T13:24:18Z")
As of this morning, the IBD/TIPP poll of 10/24-10/29 is the most recent national GOP poll in the RCP average. And since the most recent debate was the night of 10/28, this poll is mostly a pre-debate picture. But the interesting thing about it - if confirmed by other polls - is that only 6 candidates were polling at more than 2% - and one of them, Carly Fiorina, was at 3%. I’ve got my doubts about the IBD poll, since its previous iteration, 9/26-10/1, showed Trump at 17%, which was a clear outlier, since that poll is the only poll since mid-August to show Trump’s support at less than 21%. But IF other polls confirm its outcome, it would suggest that the winnowing is happening, whether or not the candidates being winnowed, or the outfits running the debates, acknowledge it. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2015, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1999 "2015-11-02T13:40:18Z")
I think at this early stage bank accounts will do more winnowing than poll numbers. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/2000 "2015-11-05T16:53:58Z")
We’ve now got [two post-Debate #3 polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) (Quinnipiac 10/29-11/2 and Fox News 11/1-11/3) and they pretty much confirm each other. If you ignore the RCP average (since it includes three mostly/entirely pre-debate polls), and just look at these two: 1. Trump’s back in the lead, holding his ground while Carson took a modest hit. 2. Rubio and Cruz both got pretty decent bumps. 3. Jeb’s at 4% in both polls. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/2001 "2015-11-05T17:23:55Z")
Also, Fiorina’s now got four straight national polls where she’s at 3%. Also, Chris [Christie may be demoted to the kiddie table](http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/latest-polling-points-real-trouble-some-2016-contenders#break) for this debate: Fox News has said their cutoff is a 2.5% average in the last four national polls completed by November 4, and it looks like Christie only has 2.25%. And Pataki and Jindal may be demoted from the kiddie table into oblivion. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=99) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=101)