# The 2016 Republican candidates

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 42

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/822 "2015-02-24T16:22:28Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> :rolleyes: Public employees contribute to the economy because they are paid with tax money that they spend **as** consumers.
> 
> They also, of course, contribute the economy **as** public employees. In strictly economic terms, the public sector is not some kind of useless parasitic growth on the private sector; it adds actual value to the economy in its own ways.

It can. It can also be parasitic. When it puts pressure on taxpayers through generous pension plans, then it’s being parasitic.

Public employees contribute to the economy when they perform tasks that help keep things moving: approving business licenses, educating students, etc. If they perform such tasks poorly, or are employed in things that aren’t really that important, taxpayers could have spent that money just as well.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/823 "2015-02-24T16:23:30Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> It can. It can also be parasitic. When it puts pressure on taxpayers through generous pension plans, then it’s being parasitic.

Public sector has pension plans, private sector has pension plans; neither is any more parasitic than the other. Why should public employees **not** have pension plans?

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/824 "2015-02-24T16:33:56Z")

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Private pension plans, usually, are consistent with what a company can pay. The public pension plans are not based on any type of reality or arithmetic that we can understand. At least not in blue states. Red states keep that shit under control better.

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**Author:** ![CGav8r](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/34f0e0/32.png) [@CGav8r](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CGav8r)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/825 "2015-02-24T17:02:00Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Private pension plans, usually, are consistent with what a company can pay. The public pension plans are not based on any type of reality or arithmetic that we can understand. At least not in blue states. Red states keep that shit under control better.

That’s what is rough about making the decision for public service. You take a job in the state house out of law school becuase you want to make your state the best place it can be, and you get vitriol thrown at you by the right, and called a parasite. I know two very smart lawyers who left lucrative jobs in the private sector to work in Sacramento because of a desire to give back. In the past they had to be concerned about what was happening to their pay because of stupidity from the right.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/826 "2015-02-24T18:30:40Z")

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[Sheldon Adelson signals he’ll bankroll effort to stop Rand Paul.](http://www.salon.com/2015/02/24/sheldon_adelson_signals_hell_bankroll_effort_to_stop_rand_paul/) Apparently because Paul is not hawkish enough for him.

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**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/827 "2015-02-24T18:44:08Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> And that’s why Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is 5.2%. What’s Illnois’ unemployment rate again?

6.2% but that’s not especially meaningful by itself. DuPage county has an unemployment of 4.2% and Stark County has a rate of 9%. Obviously there’s other issues at play here than public pensions.

Hell, Cook County has a rate of 5.6% versus 6.2% statewide so, by your reckoning, the entire state would benefit from being run like Chicago. Rahm would be pleased.

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**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/828 "2015-02-24T20:24:17Z")

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Would blasting Bush43 (if someone wanted to undercut Jeb) really be a problem? He ain’t no Reagan, after all.

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**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/829 "2015-02-24T22:57:49Z")

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Shit, Reagan wasn’t Reagan.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/830 "2015-02-24T23:09:44Z")

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> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#):
>
> Would blasting Bush43 (if someone wanted to undercut Jeb) really be a problem? He ain’t no Reagan, after all.

We can blame W for taking out Hussein and GHWB for **not** taking out Hussein! It’s perfect! 😃

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/831 "2015-02-25T01:44:44Z")

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PPP finds that Ben Carson is now in second place, ahead of Jeb.

[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016\_republican\_presidential\_nomination-3823.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html)

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/832 "2015-02-25T02:15:51Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> It can. It can also be parasitic. When it puts pressure on taxpayers through generous pension plans, then it’s being parasitic.
> 
> Public employees contribute to the economy when they perform tasks that help keep things moving: approving business licenses, educating students, etc. If they perform such tasks poorly, or are employed in things that aren’t really that important, taxpayers could have spent that money just as well.

IRS agents are a major _ **profit center** _ – a good agent is worth his weight in gold recovering from tax fraudsters; this is an agency honest taxpayers should want to see enhanced: recovery from tax frauds will, at least at the margins, allow rates for legitimate taxpayers to be lowered.

Yet, GOP is at least as eager to defund the I.R.S. as any other agency. :smack:

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**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/833 "2015-02-25T02:21:19Z")

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> [@septimus](#):
>
> Yet, GOP is at least as eager to defund the I.R.S. as any other agency. :smack:

The current iteration of Republican hates any federal agency that’s authorized to enforce tax law, especially if it treats the poor, middle-class and rich the same. If the IRS would only look the other way for billionaires and right-wingers…

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/834 "2015-02-25T02:41:56Z")

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> [@septimus](#):
>
> IRS agents are a major _ **profit center** _ – a good agent is worth his weight in gold recovering from tax fraudsters; this is an agency honest taxpayers should want to see enhanced: recovery from tax frauds will, at least at the margins, allow rates for legitimate taxpayers to be lowered.
> 
> Yet, GOP is at least as eager to defund the I.R.S. as any other agency. :smack:

Have they worked out how to do that and still support our present defense budget?

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**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/835 "2015-02-25T02:43:27Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> PPP finds that Ben Carson is now in second place, ahead of Jeb.
> 
> [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016\_republican\_presidential\_nomination-3823.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html)

Here’s an ABC News/Washington Post poll from this date in 2007:

> [@](#):
>
> Rudy Giuliani 44%, John McCain 21%, Newt Gingrich 15%, Mitt Romney 4%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Tommy Thompson 2%, Sam Brownback 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, George Pataki 1%, Ron Paul 1%

I mean, I would love for Carson to be the republican nominee, but we are pretty far away from polls mattering.

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/836 "2015-02-25T03:10:14Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Have they worked out how to do that and still support our present defense budget?

The way they always fund their military adventurism; off-budget deficit spending.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/837 "2015-02-25T03:12:52Z")

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> [@BlankSlate](#):
>
> Here’s an ABC News/Washington Post poll from this date in 2007:
> 
> I mean, I would love for Carson to be the republican nominee, but we are pretty far away from polls mattering.

Oh, I’m not saying Carson will finish second because a poll right now says so. Just noting that despite no money and no staff, Carson is gaining traction. Being ahead of the much better known and better funded Bush is truly remarkable, even at this stage.

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**Author:** ![Pashnish\_Ewing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8797f3/32.png) [@Pashnish\_Ewing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pashnish_Ewing)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/838 "2015-02-25T07:57:18Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Being ahead of the much better known and better funded Bush is truly remarkable, even at this stage.

I would say it’s the opposite of remarkable. Just like how “Generic Republican” always outpaces any actual named candidates, as those on the fringe become more familiar, they tend to settle to the back of the pack.

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**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/839 "2015-02-25T14:32:19Z")

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> [@Pashnish\_Ewing](#):
>
> I would say it’s the opposite of remarkable. Just like how “Generic Republican” always outpaces any actual named candidates, as those on the fringe become more familiar, they tend to settle to the back of the pack.

Bush has an actual governmental service record for people to like or dislike. Carson has a few speeches. Even for the Obama “community organizer who gave a speech” comments from the right, Obama had an actual record as a state legislator and senator to look at – Carson can’t even claim that much.

So I don’t think it’s especially surprising that the guy with nothing but a few red meat speeches to his name is theoretically beating the guy who can actually be criticized for his real-life deeds. Cain was the same way: just make some conservative talking point speeches and enjoy not having to defend your non-existent record.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/840 "2015-02-25T14:51:27Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Oh, I’m not saying Carson will finish second because a poll right now says so. Just noting that despite no money and no staff, Carson is gaining traction. Being ahead of the much better known and better funded Bush is truly remarkable, even at this stage.

If I had it, I would bet the cumulative gross national product of every nation on earth since Biblical times against your penny that Carson will not be the nominee.

We’re going to see a replay of 2012: all of the un-Bushes will come out of the clown car one by one, and either self-destruct or be crushed by Bush’s money, until Bush gets the nomination.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/841 "2015-02-25T14:58:10Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> If I had it, I would bet the cumulative gross national product of every nation on earth since Biblical times against your penny that Carson will not be the nominee.
> 
> We’re going to see a replay of 2012: all of the un-Bushes will come out of the clown car one by one, and either self-destruct or be crushed by Bush’s money, until Bush gets the nomination.

I’m extremely wary of making predictions this early. Hillary seemed inevitable in 2007. Something could come up about Jeb, or someone like Walker could ‘catch fire’, or (as is my hope) the crazy right will be strong enough to get Ted Cruz (or similar) nominated.

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