# The 2016 Republican candidates **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/81 "2015-01-14T17:58:09Z")
The Democratic field minus Hillary is still a stronger field than what the Republicans are currently offering. I mean, seriously, Romney is even in consideration? The front-runner is a guy who admitted that his own political career was dead? > [@](#): > > Quoth **adaher** : > > We have many to choose from, most of whom are electable. Your one is probably stronger than any one of ours, but that sure limits your options in case she implodes or simply bores everyone into somnolence. You do realize, do you not, that eventually you’re going to have to pick one of them? “Generic Republican” may poll well, but he’s never once won any election. Besides which, you’re expecting that it’s going to be the _Democratic_ candidate who bores everyone into somnolence? “Boring” is part of the fundamental Republican brand identity. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/82 "2015-01-14T18:24:33Z")
My, you have such a short memory. It’s as if history started in 2008. John Kerry? Al Gore? Michael Dukakis? Walter Mondale? Clinton and Obama prove the rule: if the Democrat isn’t charismatic, Democratic voters don’t come out. Hillary Clinton is far from charismatic. She doesn’t say a thing unless it’s focus grouped and polled extensively. She makes Mitt Romney look like a free wheeling straight talker. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/83 "2015-01-14T18:28:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > My, you have such a short memory. It’s as if history started in 2008. John Kerry? Al Gore? Michael Dukakis? Walter Mondale? > > Clinton and Obama prove the rule: if the Democrat isn’t charismatic, Democratic voters don’t come out. Hillary Clinton is far from charismatic. She doesn’t say a thing unless it’s focus grouped and polled extensively. She makes Mitt Romney look like a free wheeling straight talker. You have that backwards – Hillary is not as charismatic as Bill and Obama, but compared to “binders full of women” Romney, she’s Reagan. Romney got trounced with everything about as bad as it could be for Obama. With a massively improved economy, an increasingly successful ACA, and continued Republican gay-bashing, immigrant-bashing, and racist-embracing, things don’t look very good for the future Republican nominee. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/84 "2015-01-14T18:31:49Z")
And how does Hillary get around the Obama problem? Does she embrace him and his 44% approval rating fully, or does she retool the Allison Grimes strategy? What in her 2008 performance gives you any confidence that she can adjust her strategy on the fly? She’s the very definition of a typical politician, and she’s never successfully run as anything but a prohibitive frontrunner. And she lost the last time she did, never able to overcome adversity. Sure, if Hillary Clinton has to succeed a popular Barack Obama, she’ll be fine. But I don’t believe for a second that she can thread that needle of being not Obama yet avoiding repudiating him. As a matter of fact, no candidate has ever succeeded in doing that. The midterms should have shown you how difficult that is. You certainly complained about it enough and Hillary’s already indicated that she’s going to emulate the Grimes strategy. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/85 "2015-01-14T18:38:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And how does Hillary get around the Obama problem? Does she embrace him and his 44% approval rating fully, or does she retool the Allison Grimes strategy? It depends on his approval rating at the time (among other immediate concerns). His trend right now is upwards. > [@](#): > > What in her 2008 performance gives you any confidence that she can adjust her strategy on the fly? She’s the very definition of a typical politician, and she’s never successfully run as anything but a prohibitive frontrunner. And she lost the last time she did, never able to overcome adversity. She lost barely against a brilliant campaigner and brilliant campaign team. Bill and Obama are A or A+ campaigners, and Hillary is probably a B+ campaigner. Plus, she’ll have Bill and Obama in her corner. > [@](#): > > Sure, if Hillary Clinton has to succeed a popular Barack Obama, she’ll be fine. But I don’t believe for a second that she can thread that needle of being not Obama yet avoiding repudiating him. As a matter of fact, no candidate has ever succeeded in doing that. The midterms should have shown you how difficult that is. You certainly complained about it enough and Hillary’s already indicated that she’s going to emulate the Grimes strategy. The midterms didn’t tell us anything about how the Presidential election will turn out. '10 told us nothing about '12, and '14 will tell us nothing about '16. This “no candidate has ever…” is blown out of the water every election. Every election, there’s some factor that no candidate has ever done. Basically, all Hillary needs to do, assuming she gets the nomination, is hold VA (which a Democratic Senator held even in the poor turnout of '14) or win OH, or FL, or CO + IA. There are many paths for the Democratic candidate – the Republican candidate needs all these states. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/86 "2015-01-14T18:59:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And how does Hillary get around the Obama problem? Does she embrace him and his 44% approval rating. Ahem - 50% approval as of today [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public\_content/politics/obama\_administration/daily\_presidential\_tracking\_poll](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) You’ll need to adjust your rhetoric a bit I think. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/87 "2015-01-14T19:18:16Z")
That’s known as a cherry pick. The average of polls is 44%. Which is better than his low of 41%. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/88 "2015-01-14T19:29:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s known as a cherry pick. The average of polls is 44%. Which is better than his low of 41%. Actually the average is 45.2% now. This is called an upward trend. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president\_obama\_job\_approval-1044.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html) I’m sorry your narrative is falling apart. It must feel pretty bad. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/89 "2015-01-14T19:31:13Z")
It is an upward trend. The narrative is not falling apart yet though. The President is finally being lifted by a good economy and the fact that he’s got what he always wanted: he’s not responsible for much anymore. He begged the American public to not make him be responsible, and we gave him his wish. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/90 "2015-01-14T19:32:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It is an upward trend. The narrative is not falling apart yet though. I’ll bite your knees off! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/91 "2015-01-14T19:37:30Z")
Funny. But 45% is nowhere near where Obama needs to be if he wants to help elect a Democratic successor. Besides, there hasn’t been a story of government failure in a few months. But rest assured, it’s coming. He hasn’t learned a thing. Every time an agency falls down on the job, his approval dives a few points lower than the last low. I’m not a betting man, but here’s one I’ll take in a heartbeat: are you willing to bet that a) no government agencies will fail in such a way as to generate a major news story for the remainder of his Presidency, and b) that the President won’t resort to his usual, “I didn’t know nuthin’” or “that wasn’t my decision” shtick? Because every time he does it you can just hear the polls falling. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/92 "2015-01-14T19:37:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It is an upward trend. The narrative is not falling apart yet though. The President is finally being lifted by a good economy and the fact that he’s got what he always wanted: he’s not responsible for much anymore. He begged the American public to not make him be responsible, and we gave him his wish. This is meaningless Hannityesque drivel. You appear to be flailing because your dream of Obama’s plummeting approval rating just isn’t happening, no matter how much you try to will it so. Must be frustrating for you. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/93 "2015-01-14T19:39:41Z")
Hardly. 45% is a poor approval rating, and his rise has occurred during a time of no major news other than his immigration action, which probably made some displeased Democrats a little happier. I’m pretty sure the France thing is going to drop him back to 43, simply because people are sick of his responsibility-dodging. And for such a relatively minor mistake too. It’s childish. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/94 "2015-01-14T19:39:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Funny. But 45% is nowhere near where Obama needs to be if he wants to help elect a Democratic successor. > > Besides, there hasn’t been a story of government failure in a few months. But rest assured, it’s coming. He hasn’t learned a thing. Every time an agency falls down on the job, his approval dives a few points lower than the last low. > > I’m not a betting man, but here’s one I’ll take in a heartbeat: are you willing to bet that a) no government agencies will fail in such a way as to generate a major news story for the remainder of his Presidency, and b) that the President won’t resort to his usual, “I didn’t know nuthin’” or “that wasn’t my decision” shtick? Because every time he does it you can just hear the polls falling. The only government agencies that may fail over the next couple of years will be the ones that the Republican congress sabotage, and then they’ll try to blame it on Obama. And so will you. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/95 "2015-01-14T19:40:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m pretty sure the France thing is going to drop him back to 43, simply because people are sick of his responsibility-dodging. And for such a relatively minor mistake too. It’s childish. Bullshit. Nobody gives a shit about this in reality. Your desperation is really showing through at this point fyi. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/96 "2015-01-14T19:41:49Z")
That would depend on precisely what goes wrong, and how the administration handles it. There are no agencies starving for funds, and none are likely to be starving for funds even with a Republican Congress. There will be a lot of bitching at the very expensive parties the agencies throw for themselves, but not much else until something goes wrong and they try to blame it on budget cuts. And of course you’ll join in, but the public won’t buy it. Government fails whether their budget is lavish or skimpy. And the reasons they fail almost never have anything to do with money. Usually it’s partisanship, incompetence, unaccountability, or corruption. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/97 "2015-01-14T19:42:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And how does Hillary get around the Obama problem? Does she embrace him and his 44% approval rating fully, or does she retool the Allison Grimes strategy? What in her 2008 performance gives you any confidence that she can adjust her strategy on the fly? She’s the very definition of a typical politician, and she’s never successfully run as anything but a prohibitive frontrunner. And she lost the last time she did, never able to overcome adversity. > > Sure, if Hillary Clinton has to succeed a popular Barack Obama, she’ll be fine. But I don’t believe for a second that she can thread that needle of being not Obama yet avoiding repudiating him. As a matter of fact, no candidate has ever succeeded in doing that. The midterms should have shown you how difficult that is. You certainly complained about it enough and Hillary’s already indicated that she’s going to emulate the Grimes strategy. Clinton is not a great campaigner, and I don’t have any real love for her. However, “Obama” is not her problem in the least. I can’t imagine anyone anywhere saying “I like Mrs. Clinton okay,but she is a bit too close to President Obama, who doesn’t have my approval.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/98 "2015-01-14T19:43:34Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Bullshit. Nobody gives a shit about this in reality. Your desperation is really showing through at this point fyi. Boy, you are insulated here. Do you even read newspapers, or at least their electronic counterparts? Besides, it’s not the mistake that will stop his approval rise. It’s him dodging responsibility for his mistake and throwing an aide under the bus. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/99 "2015-01-14T19:45:34Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Clinton is not a great campaigner, and I don’t have any real love for her. However, “Obama” is not her problem in the least. I can’t imagine anyone anywhere saying “I like Mrs. Clinton okay,but she is a bit too close to President Obama, who doesn’t have my approval.” Bush was death to John McCain. There has never been a campaign where an incumbent wasn’t running where the candidate of his own party trying to succeed him wasn’t tied to his performance. The Obama campaign’s primary strategy was to say that McCAin would be “Bush’s third term”, and liberal discussion board posters couldnt’ stop showing that picture of McCain hugging Bush. Most of you thought it was an effective strategy. That’s because it is. Elections are ALWAYS about the incumbent whether the incumbent is running or not. Besides, Obama can’t help himself. You just know he’s going to say things like, “Every one of my policies is on the ballot” and “Clinton will say what she has to say, but she’s going to continue my policies.” His ego is too big to just shut up. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/100 "2015-01-14T19:50:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Boy, you are insulated here. I’m insulated? Wow, that’s rich coming from the skewed poll guy, and the owner of the title ‘Most consistently wrong poster on the SDMB’. You may be the king of projection as well it seems. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=6)