# The 2016 Republican candidates

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 79

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1562 "2015-06-11T14:12:04Z")

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> [@Steve\_MB](#):
>
> I know that presenting scientific fact to a right-wing ideologue is as rude as shoving a crucifix in Dracula’s face, but [here goes](http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01541861):

So that “time” when “illegitimacy was rare” was over 250 years ago?

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**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1563 "2015-06-11T22:23:57Z")

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> [@Steve\_MB](#):
>
> I know that presenting scientific fact to a right-wing ideologue is as rude as shoving a crucifix in Dracula’s face, but [here goes](http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01541861):

Thank you for that. I was pretty sure that his contention was another of the many “things were better back in the old days (that exist only in my head)” claim that conservative white males like to make. Didn’t have the time to look.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1564 "2015-06-11T22:28:04Z")

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Ah, so peer pressure does not affect people’s choices. Science!

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**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1565 "2015-06-11T22:35:10Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Ah, so peer pressure does not affect people’s choices. Science!

I’ve seen chicken thieves with less weasel than that post.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1566 "2015-06-11T22:38:58Z")

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Showing one study that addresses a number of factors does not disprove anything I said. And the fact that peer pressure is a major incentive in most people’s choices is an indisputable fact.

> **[Peer pressure | Neural mechanisms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_pressure#Neural_mechanisms)**
>
> From a neurological perspective, the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the striatum play an important role in figuring out the value of specific actions. The mPFC is active when determining "socially tagged" objects, which are objects that peers have expressed an opinion about; the striatum is significant for determining the value of these "socially tagged" objects and rewards in general. An experiment performed by Mason et al. utilizing fMRI scans analyzed individuals who were assigned to indi...

Science!

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**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1567 "2015-06-11T22:41:21Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Ah, so peer pressure does not affect people’s choices. Science!

Who do you think the peers of unmarried people having sex are?

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1568 "2015-06-11T22:41:40Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Ah, so peer pressure does not affect people’s choices. Science!

What’s that got to do with, well, anything?

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1569 "2015-06-11T22:48:44Z")

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Someone was trying to establish that social disapproval of unwed pregnancies doesn’t reduce unwed pregnancies. Social disapproval of ANYTHING reduces the frequency of the undesired activities.

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**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1570 "2015-06-11T22:59:07Z")

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Social disapproval of anything reduces the frequency of doing that thing openly. All you’re doing is pushing people to cover it up, not to stop doing it.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1571 "2015-06-11T23:08:45Z")

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WHen that’s possible, you’re absolutely right. But to look at the Victorian era reduction in illegitimacy and conclude it is due to better birth control is pretty ridiculous.

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1572 "2015-06-11T23:14:57Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Someone was trying to establish that social disapproval of unwed pregnancies doesn’t reduce unwed pregnancies. Social disapproval of ANYTHING reduces the frequency of the undesired activities.

Uh, the evidence points that abstinence education and other similar attempts at shaming sexual activity do not work.

> **[Teen pregnancies — and abortions — plummeted after Hawaii ditched...](https://www.rawstory.com/2015/06/teen-pregnancies-and-abortions-plummeted-after-hawaii-ditched-abstinence-based-sex-ed/)**
>
> Public schools in Hawaii moved away from abstinence-based sex education about five years ago – and the teen pregnancy and abortion rates have plummeted.The number of terminated pregnancies dropped nearly 30 percent between 2010 and 2014 – the largest...

It seems to me that many in our society are trying to do their best to shame those deniers of the evidence into doing the right thing and stop abstinence only education, the silliness here is that this teen pregnancy issue would not be as important if we had done the right thing for a long time.

One big contradiction I see is that if one is against abortion that means that teen pregnancy is going to be one of the results. If shaming was effective into getting us less pregnant teens it is likely that it was because abortion was more available.

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**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1573 "2015-06-12T03:20:58Z")

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Can we get back to discussing the 2016 GOP candidates, please?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1574 "2015-06-12T09:31:58Z")

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> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#):
>
> Can we get back to discussing the 2016 GOP candidates, please?

We don’t think they should have sex out of wedlock either.

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**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1575 "2015-06-12T13:41:10Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Social disapproval of ANYTHING reduces the frequency of the undesired activities.

Which explains why all those posters with multiple pit threads dedicated to them disappear, never to return.

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**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1576 "2015-06-12T13:59:52Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Social disapproval of ANYTHING reduces the frequency of the undesired activities.

Rejecting evidence-based reality and substituting your own is an undesired activity. If social disapproval thereof worked, this discussion would not exist for two reasons:

1. You would have quit posting by now.

2. The GOP would have disbanded by now.

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**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1577 "2015-06-12T14:02:39Z")

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> [@Gyrate](#):
>
> We don’t think they should have sex out of wedlock either.

That should be easy for [“bro with no ho”](http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/244690-mark-kirk-lindsey-graham-is-a-bro-with-no-ho) Lindsey Graham (unless the rumors are true).

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**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1578 "2015-06-12T14:19:51Z")

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Harry Truman said he spent his first six months in the Senate wondering how he got there, but since then he only wondered how _the rest of them_ got there.

Not much has changed, has it?

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**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1579 "2015-06-12T15:55:19Z")

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> [@Gyrate](#):
>
> We don’t think they should have sex out of wedlock either.

I don’t care when or with whom they have sex. I just wish they wouldn’t reproduce.

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**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1580 "2015-06-12T16:49:19Z")

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The [Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/06/12/marco-rubio-is-at-the-top-of-the-republican-presidential-field/)reports that Rubio is now leading the Republican field.

With the usual disclaimer that it’s way too early to tell, does Rubio end up being the GOP’s version of Obama this cycle (minus the “winning the general” part :D)? Jeb Bush so far has been playing the role Clinton did in 2008: over-hyped, well-financed early front-runner with lots of baggage who turns out to just not be that great a candidate in the end. Meanwhile, Rubio is starting to look like the fresh-faced, charismatic minority candidate whose youth and inexperience people are willing to overlook based on his inspiring story/oratory and his wisdom on foreign policy. (Of course I personally find his FP views dangerous and misguided, but that’s beside the point.)

Bush comes with formidable advantages, but his campaign to date has revealed a pretty lame underlying candidate IMHO. Assuming it’s not Bush, then who beats Rubio?

- Walker? Many of the same flaws as Rubio, with fewer of the strengths
- Cruz? Too detestable, especially among the establishment
- Paul? Too dovish on FP
- Kasich? Too boring
- Christie? Too corrupt (for the Romney campaign, anyway)
- Jindal? Too irrelevant
- Huckabee/Carson/Santorum? Too nutty

The only candidate who can credibly enough play president on TV to be a real threat to Rubio is Perry. His major weaknesses, “oops” and being under indictment by Democrats, will be totally surmountable in the GOP primary assuming his debate performances are just minimally passable. But if Rubio continues to build early momentum he could drain Perry’s own fundraising base.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\
**Post date:** [June 12, 2015, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1581 "2015-06-12T17:06:48Z")

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It turns out that Rubio [voted for the Florida “Scarlet Letter” law](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/11/florida-adoption-bill_n_7565046.html) to implement Jeb’s above-described sociological notions:

> [@](#):
>
> Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was among the Florida state legislators who voted for the so-called “Scarlet Letter” law in 2001 that required single mothers to publish their sexual histories in the newspaper in order to place their babies up for adoption…

Marco, if you prefer a newspaper you can read one-handed, that’s your business, but keep it out of our body politic.

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