# The 2016 Republican candidates **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/141 "2015-01-15T20:32:35Z")
[There’s already a backlash against Romney.](http://www.salon.com/2015/01/15/gops_anti_romney_backlash_intensifies_and_mitt_saw_it_coming/) ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/142 "2015-01-15T21:09:07Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I wasn’t as clear as I should have been. I was thinking of the period during Bush’s second term (post-Katrina, especially) when it was clear that his policies had failed. Even after the Dems took control of Congress in 2007, the GOP Congressional delegation stood by Bush, as evidenced by their votes at the time. It’s true, as you say, that once Bush was out of office, their approach was simply to talk about him as little as possible, but while he was still there, they backed him to the hilt. If Bush was still in office, they’d still be backing him to the hilt. > [@](#): > > Well said. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/143 "2015-01-16T00:34:56Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > Ah, yes, the timid, humble **adaher,** who: > > -says that anyone with the temerity to describe Obama’s approval going from 41% to 45% as a ‘rise’ lacks intellectual integrity > -responded to having one of his favorite factoids (Strom Thurmond was the only D-to-R conversion in the wake of the civil rights movement) being shown to be utter b.s. by declaring factual accuracy to be “revisionist history” > -was fooled into repeating utter nonsense gleaned from the Birthers (and before that from the Benghazi scandalistas [and before that from the unskewed polls people]), yet believes his uniformed natterings constitute a valuable contribution to the political discourse. > > My mind reels at the contemplation of what a hubristic \*\*adaher \*\*would be. Let’s avoid the personal comments, please. If you want to slag on someone as a poster, take it to the Pit. In this forum, stay focused on the content of that person’s posts. Thanks, **twickster** , Elections moderator ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/144 "2015-01-16T01:45:28Z")
> [@twickster](#): > > Let’s avoid the personal comments, please. If you want to slag on someone as a poster, take it to the Pit. In this forum, stay focused on the content of that person’s posts. > > Thanks, > > **twickster** , Elections moderator I see no reason that the post you moderated does not focus on **adaher** ’s posts. It was a direct response to his post [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=18053379#post18053379): > [@adaher](#): > > I’m overconfident? I’m probably the least confident poster here. But I also have the thickest skin. Yours, not so much. But I do apologize for the attack on your intellectual integrity, it was an unnecessary and wrong statement. I would like to see you in other venues though where you’d have to be more rigorous in defending your point of view. You could not bring that last argument into very many non-lefty boards and get very far. That’s not attacking those who disagree with him? And that’s not mod-noted. **Twickster** , I suggest that you retreat back to MPSIMS. You’re useless as an Elections Moderator. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/145 "2015-01-16T03:07:05Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > I see no reason that the post you moderated does not focus on **adaher** ’s posts. It was a direct response to his post [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=18053379#post18053379): No. It was an overreaction that took ( **42fish** ’s interpretation of) a few events and used them to launch a very personal attack on **adaher**. As is typical of these threads, a number of people, including **adaher** , have been slipping in digs at other posters. **42fish** went well beyond that. > [@Frank](#): > > That’s not attacking those who disagree with him? And that’s not mod-noted. **Twickster** , I suggest that you retreat back to MPSIMS. You’re useless as an Elections Moderator. The best you can do is to cite a post where **adaher** made a tepid apology for his comments–comments that were no worse than several others aimed at him–while throwing out another mild dig? And for that you are launching a personal attack on **twickster** instead of raising an objection in ATMB? Do not pull this sort of stunt, again. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/146 "2015-01-16T03:29:14Z")
The last thing the republicans want in 2016 is a free-for-all melee like 2012. I predict the 2016 republican primary will be similar to 2000. The big money and organization will coalesce early around Jeb Bush. Rand Paul will play McCain’s role this time around, contesting every state until the end but ultimately falling well short. ETA: Bush will select Scott Walker as his running mate. The perfect attack dog. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/147 "2015-01-16T03:32:11Z")
I think that’s a pretty sound prediction, but I think there’s an equal chance of a free for all. I was amazed at how much the debates mattered, how a candidate could emerge as a new frontrunner just based on a good debate performance despite having no money. I like electorates that actually pay attention. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/148 "2015-01-16T11:18:29Z")
Unfortunately the ‘good showing at debates’ method has given us Cameron & Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/149 "2015-01-16T12:28:23Z")
Fortunately the “good showing at debates” method did not give us McCain or Romney. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/150 "2015-01-16T12:43:18Z")
And it eliminated Rick Perry, although he seems to think he is still a plausible candidate. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/151 "2015-01-16T13:00:51Z")
Not so sure about the debates being decisive. Remember the first presidential debate from 2012 where Romney played Biff and Obama played George McFly? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/152 "2015-01-16T13:06:45Z")
The GOP primary debates were what was decisive. Gingrich and Cain both got to temporary frontrunner status based on good debate performances despite having no money. Perry eliminated himself in the debates. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/153 "2015-01-16T13:12:21Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The GOP primary debates were what was decisive. Gingrich and Cain both got to temporary frontrunner status based on good debate performances despite having no money. Perry eliminated himself in the debates. Money was what was decisive in the GOP primary. Romney carpet bombed the air with negative ads whenever anyone got out of the unRomney clown car. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/154 "2015-01-16T13:19:06Z")
They also self destructed after their good debate performances. But the point I was trying to make is that I expect more of the same in 2016. Romney and Bush may end up with the big money advantage, but the base is probably going to give a big boost to Walker, Huck, or Jindal, or Paul, or Carson, or whoever else bests them in the debates. And of those, I only see Carson as someone who would self-destruct afterwards. Romney and Bush can’t rely on being the only plausible options this time around. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/155 "2015-01-16T13:25:02Z")
Yes, because the rest of that list is OBVIOUSLY not batshit crazy, incredibly venal or just plain evil… ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/156 "2015-01-16T13:38:36Z")
Ben Carson has a better chance at the papacy than he does the White House. I think the only reason that Gingrich and Cain ever got to be temporary front runners was that the party was desperate to find someone other than Romney. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/157 "2015-01-16T14:41:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They also self destructed after their good debate performances. > > But the point I was trying to make is that I expect more of the same in 2016. Romney and Bush may end up with the big money advantage, but the base is probably going to give a big boost to Walker, Huck, or Jindal, or Paul, or Carson, or whoever else bests them in the debates. And of those, I only see Carson as someone who would self-destruct afterwards. You grossly underestimate the self-destructive capacity of Jindal and Huckabee. Walker . . . has already self-destructed, by his record. > [@adaher](#): > > Romney and Bush can’t rely on being the only plausible options this time around. They are the only **electable** options and even the base must know it by now. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/158 "2015-01-16T16:09:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I think that’s a pretty sound prediction, but I think there’s an equal chance of a free for all. I was amazed at how much the debates mattered, how a candidate could emerge as a new frontrunner just based on a good debate performance despite having no money. I like electorates that actually pay attention. It wasn’t so much that a candidate could emerge as a new frontrunner, as that the previous one, when subjected to even brief scrutiny as the frontrunner, was deemed by the wingnuts themselves to be someone who couldn’t plausibly play a President on TV. And then they’d turn to the next one in a big way, like a schoolgirl with her new crush, and the same thing would happen to that one. Lather, rinse, repeat. So they went through Trump and Bachmann and Perry and Cain and Santorum and Gingrich, and ultimately came back to Santorum for lack of better choices for a non-Establishment candidate. Incidentally, that’s why I don’t buy any of this ‘it’s Santorum’s turn’ stuff. He may have placed second last time, but he was really the wingnuts’ desperation choice for their date to the prom, and most of his supporters in the 2012 primaries would really like to find someone better this time. So they’ll support Rand or Cruz or the Huckster, and many of them will flirt with Ben Carson, but for most of them, it will just be a flirtation. Some of them will stay with Santorum, but I’d bet against his being the last wingnut standing, this time around. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/159 "2015-01-16T16:25:41Z")
I don’t know if this is how likely GOP primary voters (or anyone else besides me, for that matter) will see it, but somehow, having both Jeb and Mitt in the race makes everyone else look _small_. I really thought this would be the cycle where one of the ‘base’ candidates got a lot of support early, and looked good enough to most GOP primary voters that the Establishment candidate’s efforts to get back in the game proved futile. Instead, none of those Rands or Cruzes or Hucks has been able to get all that much support in the polls, so now the story line isn’t about one or more of them, and isn’t even about all those guys versus Jeb or Mitt. It’s now about Jeb v. Mitt, and they’re all off to the side. Two months ago, I wouldn’t have thought either Jeb or Mitt would run. Hell, I said as much about Jeb, and the idea of Mitt going for a third try just seemed ridiculous. But there they are. So don’t put a whole lot of trust in _my_ crystal ball. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/160 "2015-01-16T16:41:42Z")
I think the ultimate winner will depend on which half of the bracket solidifies first. Will the business wing split between Bush, Christie, and Romney while the radical wing unites behind one guy? Or will the reverse happen? Darned if I know. We haven’t seen any far righties announce yet and if one of them takes all of the oxygen out of that side of the tent, he could win the nomination. More likely in my opinion is that the survivor of Bush-Christie-Romney solidifies the money wing and cruises to the nomination. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=9)