# The 2016 Republican candidates **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 82
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1622 "2015-06-18T03:51:25Z")
Reminds me that the satirical magazine _Spy_ back in the day invariably mentioned him on first reference as “short-fingered vulgarian Donald Trump.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1623 "2015-06-18T05:58:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Sorry, John, but Joe Lieberman and Rudy Giuliani were better frontrunners than JEb. They at least commanded 20%. Jeb has 10.6% in the RCP average, and the latest poll had him at 9% with Ben Carson in 1st place. I realize you just substitute your own reality for your own pretty much any time you post, but just so anyone seeing this post thinks that it has a basis in reality, it doesn’t. Joe Lieberman was never a “front-runner” for the 2004 Democratic nomination for President. He [consistently polled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2004) behind Kerry and Gephardt. And Giuliani a front-runner? that’s funny. From this [very comprehensive list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2012_presidential_primaries) of many, many polls, America’s Mayor was a footnoot in nearly every one of them. The only poll that worked for him was a single poll by Fox News _cough_ taken from May 12–13, 2009 (which is the equivalent of polling over a year ago for the 2016 election which is super early). Aside from that outlier, the early stages were Huckabee, Romney and Palin which gave way by the time mid-2011 came around (i.e. directly corresponding to today’s polling for the 2016 Primaries) when Romney was nearly always in the lead. Lieberman and Giuliani were never front-runners. I have no idea what made you ever think they were. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1624 "2015-06-18T06:14:28Z")
And they also never “at least commanded 20%” in the polls. Lieberman never reached that number; Giuliani had one poll where he did, that insanely early, likely-biased Fox News poll. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 9:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1625 "2015-06-18T09:19:18Z")
Correction: > [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > The only poll that worked for him was a single poll by Fox News _cough_ taken from May 12–13, 2009 (which is the equivalent of polling over a year ago for the 2016 election which is super early). Mid 2009 polls correspond to two years ago, not last year, compared to where we are in the election cycle. ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1626 "2015-06-18T12:25:06Z")
Huh? Giuliani was definitely a frontrunner in the 2008 cycle. > **[Clinton, Giuliani Top 2008 Presidential Nomination Polls](https://news.gallup.com/poll/23245/Clinton-Giuliani-Top-2008-Presidential-Nomination-Polls.aspx)** > > A new Gallup Poll finds Hillary Clinton with a wide lead over other 2008 Democratic presidential nomination hopefuls among Democrats, while Rudy Giuliani has a slight lead over John McCain among Republicans. Most Americans apparently have not given... ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1627 "2015-06-18T15:17:42Z")
Lieberman and Giuliani weren’t really frontrunners because we all knew that their lead in the polls was name recognition. Jeb has name recognition and STILL can’t maintain a lead. He’s just not going to win. Republican voters know who he is 90% want someone else. How do you think Democrats will react to him? He currently performs worse than most other candidates against Clinton. So there’s no electability argument for him either. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1628 "2015-06-18T18:04:05Z")
They weren’t frontrunners even though they were running in front. Got it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1629 "2015-06-19T15:56:52Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > I realize you just substitute your own reality for your own pretty much any time you post, but just so anyone seeing this post thinks that it has a basis in reality, it doesn’t. > > Joe Lieberman was never a “front-runner” for the 2004 Democratic nomination for President. He [consistently polled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2004) behind Kerry and Gephardt. OJK, here’s [MY own reality that I must’ve made up](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem2.htm): > [@](#): > > ```auto > > ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 11-15, 2002. N=682 Democrats and independents > who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ± 4. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch. > > "Suppose your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for president in 2004 > and the candidates are [rotate:] Tom Daschle, Howard Dean, John Edwards, > Richard Gephardt, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Joseph Lieberman -- for whom would > you vote? [If "Gore" or "Lieberman":] If he doesn't run, who would be your > second choice?" > Without Gore Without Lieberman > % % % > Al Gore 46 n/a 50 > Joseph Lieberman 10 21 n/a > Tom Daschle 8 14 9 > John Kerry 6 10 7 > Dick Gephardt 5 13 7 > John Edwards 3 7 3 > Howard Dean 1 3 1 > Other (vol.) 3 4 4 > Undecided 18 29 20 > > ``` So already in July 2002, if Gore’s absence is assumed, Lieberman is in the lead with \>20%. Marist finds the same thing in October 2002, ditto the WaPo again in November. By December, most pollsters drop Gore from the list, and CNN finds Lieberman in the lead in three polls it takes in December and January, with support varying from 18% to 25%. In January 2003, ABC/WaPo finds Lieberman leading with 27% support. At the beginning of February, the L.A. Times finds Lieberman leading with 25%. In April, ABC/WaPo has Lieberman peaking at 29%. CNN/USA Today has Gephardt briefly leading Lieberman in March 2003, but then has Lieberman consistently on top in April through August 2003 with 20% support, give or take. there’s also one Zogby poll in August 2003 that shows Howard Dean ahead and Lieberman second. And there are also a few polls in mid-2003 that show Lieberman ahead, but with support distinctly below 20%. But on the whole, Lieberman was the clear front-runner at this point in the 2004 cycle. That’s my reality, because it’s also the reality of multiple major opinion pollsters. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1630 "2015-06-19T16:06:43Z")
And with respect to Giuliani, go [here](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm) and scroll all the way to the bottom. There’s a series of WaPo poll results for the GOP nomination from December 2006 through September 2007. Giuliani leads in all of them, with support varying from 26% to 44%, but mostly in the low to mid 30s. Yes, he was the GOP frontrunner at this point in the 2008 cycle. One can argue that the _reason_ he was leading was name recognition, as one could for Lieberman in the 2004 cycle, and that accordingly, that lead wasn’t all it was cracked up to be. _But it was a lead._ ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1631 "2015-06-19T16:18:27Z")
Problem is based on the fact that not that many people give a rat’s potato at this point in time, but few of them will admit it. Ask them the question, and they pretend that they have thought it through. Kind of the same problem with exit polling, like thinking that Kerry actually won because of exit polling. More likely, its just that people who voted for Bush didn’t want to admit it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1632 "2015-06-19T16:56:00Z")
Yeah, thanks for reminding me of the early exit polls. I won’t inhale those fumes again; 2004 was one time too many. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1633 "2015-06-19T17:18:09Z")
Lieberman was in the lead, but never a frontrunner. He just had the most name recognition and pretty much everyone who follows elections knew that he wasn’t going to be the nominee. Ditto for Giuliani. I believe both had a shot at winning, but neither ran the kind of campaign that would allay base misgivings about them. Which meant that their early polling was probably their max level of support, not a sign that they were going to be leading the field when it really counted. Jeb is at 10%. I just don’t think he’s going to rise any higher than that. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1634 "2015-06-19T17:46:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Lieberman was in the lead, but never a frontrunner. And I drink water, but abstain from H[sub]2[/sub]O. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1635 "2015-06-19T18:36:39Z")
“Water? Water? Fish\* fuck\* in water!” W.C. Fields (attrib.) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1636 "2015-06-19T19:09:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …Jeb is at 10%. I just don’t think he’s going to rise any higher than that. I disagree. As others fall by the wayside I suspect his numbers will go up. Right now he’s one of the few mature adults in the GOP race. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1637 "2015-06-19T19:49:28Z")
Okay, I agree with that, but he could also fall and his support could go to Kasich. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1638 "2015-06-19T19:51:03Z")
If he were running. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2015, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1639 "2015-06-20T00:53:46Z")
Nota bene: Donald Trump can talk all the crap he likes, but he’s not going to be the GOP nominee because he’s not actually running for anything. He doesn’t want to be President and doesn’t even want to run a campaign. He hasn’t filed with the FEC and I’m certain he won’t. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2015, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1640 "2015-06-20T05:09:07Z")
The huge field helps Bush most of all: it divides the hardcore social conservative and Tea Party blocs (who will not choose him over others) … and leaves him with the smaller portion that is less severely conservative and thinking that the party needs to veer from a Tea Party/hardcore social conservative course. The portion is smaller but he will have it pretty much to himself as the others declare him “not conservative enough.” Add to that a war chest that can outlast the others and he’s in a comfortable place. The danger for him would have been a sparse field, with the Tea Party/hardcore social conservative bloc pulling together behind one alternative. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2015, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1641 "2015-06-20T07:49:07Z")
Isn’t Scott Walker the candidate of the Party establishment? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=81) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=83)