# The 2016 Republican candidates **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 90
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1782 "2015-07-15T21:20:34Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Oh sure. I’m speculating that he’s still not especially interested in the Presidency and that filling out the FEC report advances his brand. I agree, but now he can stay around as long as it is still amusing to him. Which we can hope is well into the primaries. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1783 "2015-07-15T21:29:43Z")
Serious question that I obviously don’t know the answer to: What happens in the extremely unlike event that Trump becomes the Republican nominee, but then decides he’s no longer interested in battling Hillary for the presidency and drops out? Does ¡Jeb! then become the nominee by default? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1784 "2015-07-15T21:54:03Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Serious question that I obviously don’t know the answer to: What happens in the extremely unlike event that Trump becomes the Republican nominee, but then decides he’s no longer interested in battling Hillary for the presidency and drops out? Does ¡Jeb! then become the nominee by default? The Republican National Committee would select a replacement candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1785 "2015-07-16T02:07:01Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > The Republican National Committee would select a replacement candidate. Really? It wouldn’t automatically go to the runner-up? Seems a bit arbitrary. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1786 "2015-07-16T04:54:09Z")
The runner-up is the second choice of many (not all) of the party faithful, and even so, might not be the best person to appear on the ballot in November. Both major U.S. parties have rules empowering the national committee to select a new nominee ASAP if the standard-bearer quits, dies, falls into a coma, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1787 "2015-07-16T06:47:10Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The runner-up is the second choice of many (not all) of the party faithful, and even so, might not be the best person to appear on the ballot in November. Both major U.S. parties have rules empowering the national committee to select a new nominee ASAP if the standard-bearer quits, dies, falls into a coma, etc. Hm. Thanks for the clarification. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 9:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1788 "2015-07-16T09:52:35Z")
Crediting today’s Republicans with the 1960’s Civil Rights movement (or, even zanier but some Republicans do it, the Emancipation of the 1860’s) is like crediting today’s Iraq government with the Golden Age of Islamic Science: al-Khwārizmī, Alhazen, al-Kindī. But let’s extend thanks to those who adopt this confusion: it helps distinguish knowledgeable comments from fatuous rhetoric. But I see this ignorance has already been fought in this thread: > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Don’t you know all the old racist Democrats switched parties in the 1960s? Do try to keep up. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Let’s see- Bull Connor died in 1973 after being defeated in 1972. Wallace never held office after being shot in 1968. Byrd disavowed his racist past and remained a Democrat until his death. Stennis wasn’t quite as repentant as Byrd but did campaign for a black man in 1986. Fulbright supported an extension of the Voting Rights Act in 1970. So the guys on your list either died before the exodus of racists from the Democratic Party was completed or have partially or totally repented for their sins. To paraphrase one Republican intellectual, “you go to the election with the Republican Party you have, not the Party you might want or wish you’d retained from a saner time.” ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1789 "2015-07-16T22:27:42Z")
In other threads I made the point that the media will benefit by making sure that a horse race is there, hence the pot shots (that were undermined by new media pointing how flawed those pot shots were) against Clinton made early by the mainstream so as to ensure that a lot of money will come their way once the presidential contest starts. (If it is clear who has the advantage early on there will be less money spent in advertisement in many mainstream media markets) I also suspected that the high number of candidates from the Republicans would be a windfall for the right wing media (and there is indeed a lot of money now pushing a lot of diverse and contradictory agendas in the Republican party). Rachel Madow just pointed out how since the Republican debates will only have the top ten candidates according to their polls, that means that the focus now by candidates like Perry is on FOX news and other right wing media outlets, in the case of Perry he had to minimize his efforts in the early primary states and focus now on purchasing advertisements on FOX and the like so as to make it more likely that Rick Perry will be in the [del]Grown up table[/del] main debates. Nice [del]racket[/del] gravy train for the right wing media. https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?height=224&width=400&href=https://www.facebook.com/Mediamatters/videos/10153050474386167/ ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1790 "2015-07-21T14:57:08Z")
Looks like Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in. Here’s an interesting article on his crappy education policies: [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/wp/2015/07/20/what-ohio-gov-john-kasich-is-doing-to-public-education-in-his-state/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/wp/2015/07/20/what-ohio-gov-john-kasich-is-doing-to-public-education-in-his-state/) ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1791 "2015-07-21T16:00:45Z")
He’s speaking now. It’s, well, a classic Kasich speech in the tradition of James Joyce. He just recounted a meal at Wendy’s where he saw not one but _two_ “wonderful African American fellows.” ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1792 "2015-07-21T16:13:24Z")
> **[John Kasich makes 2016 bid official in freewheeling announcement | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/21/politics/john-kasich-election-2016-announcement/index.html)** > > Ohio Gov. John Kasich burst onto the Republican playing field Tuesday with a freewheeling and, at times, emotional speech that hit on two main points: Americans should be working together and he can win, despite long odds. He’s erratic and impulsive. I would actually be a bit worried about him as President. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1793 "2015-07-21T17:49:08Z")
Here’s something interesting inspired by this [538 article](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasich-a-jeb-bush-in-jon-huntsman-clothing/). I haven’t fully formed my thoughts on this yet, but I thought I’d throw it out here for discussion. YouGov has asked Republican voters to rate the candidates ideologically in its polling and RCP gives us raw polling data. (As an amusing aside I’ve noticed that as of right now RCP has stopped even bothering listing a number for Lindsey Graham.) Here’s what that looks like: ```auto Name Ideo RCP Pataki 50 0.3 Kasich 54 1.5 Christie 55 2.8 Bush 60 13.8 Graham 61 0 Fiorina 62 0.8 Paul 63 6 Trump 63 18 Rubio 64 6.3 Carson 65 5.5 Jindal 67 1.3 Perry 69 2 Santorum 70 1.5 Walker 70 10.8 Huckabee 71 5.8 Cruz 72 5.8 ``` It is pretty easy to imagine Bush gobbling up the votes at the top of the list as weaker candidates drop out. Likewise Walker should be able to control the votes at the bottom. This will allow both Bush and Walker to push in to the middle without guarding their flanks. In the middle we have a tight knot of Paul, Trump, Rubio. The mean Republican voter is voting for someone with an Ideo of 64.7 and the median an Ideo score of 63. I think it will be extremely difficult for candidates in the this pack to gain much ground when they have to battle each other while simultaneously fending off attacks from both the left and the right. So my conclusion is that it will come down to Bush and Walker with the winner being whoever Rubio endorses. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1794 "2015-07-21T18:19:23Z")
Interesting theory. I could just see it happening. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1795 "2015-07-21T18:26:53Z")
I would feel better about my theory if it were not for Trump. He’s very volatile in the polls and I’m not sure where his support is coming from so I can’t be sure if Paul and Rubio are competing with him for votes. They are definitely competing with each other though. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1796 "2015-07-21T20:48:16Z")
[Rand Paul releases a video to show how he’s going to replace the federal tax code with a one page tax code and a flat tax of 14.5%](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtglptO4v34). The video shows him in T shirt and jeans and wearing goggles while he burns paper, stuffs paper into a wood chipper, and takes a chain saw to stacks of paper. How Presidential. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1797 "2015-07-21T21:05:20Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [Rand Paul releases a video to show how he’s going to replace the federal tax code with a one page tax code and a flat tax of 14.5%](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtglptO4v34). The video shows him in T shirt and jeans and wearing goggles while he burns paper, stuffs paper into a wood chipper, and takes a chain saw to stacks of paper. > > How Presidential. From his website: > [@](#): > > The left will argue that the plan is a tax cut for the wealthy. But most of the loopholes in the tax code were designed by the rich and politically connected. Though the rich will pay a lower rate along with everyone else, they won’t have special provisions to avoid paying lower than 14.5%. Wow, that’s sticking to the man! No lower than 14.5%, that’s where he draws the line! That will have those rich guys howling, I tell you wut! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1798 "2015-07-21T21:14:06Z")
They don’t do their own howling, they have people for that. Keep your distance. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1799 "2015-07-21T21:32:06Z")
[Huckabee gets called out for shaving in violation of Biblical law.](http://www.rawstory.com/2015/07/bald-faced-hypocrisy-watch-mike-huckabee-get-mocked-for-his-unbiblical-shaving-habits/) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1800 "2015-07-21T21:37:43Z")
> [@](#): > > Though the rich will pay a lower rate along with everyone else, they won’t have special provisions to avoid paying lower than 14.5%. The rich won’t avoid paying low rates. The poor, however, will avoid those low rates. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1801 "2015-07-22T04:24:36Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [Huckabee gets called out for shaving in violation of Biblical law.](http://www.rawstory.com/2015/07/bald-faced-hypocrisy-watch-mike-huckabee-get-mocked-for-his-unbiblical-shaving-habits/) You’ll appreciate this: [http://www.qrd.org/qrd/media/print/deb.price/1993/sample.column-08.20.93](http://www.qrd.org/qrd/media/print/deb.price/1993/sample.column-08.20.93) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=89) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=91)