# The 2016 Republican candidates **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2015, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444 "2015-01-09T22:38:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 91
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1802 "2015-07-22T14:13:46Z")
All Republicans they polled for(Bush, Rubio, Walker) lead Clinton in Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado: > **[Election News, Polls and Results - 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/news/)** > > The latest political news, focusing on elections, election results, polls and race ratings. So there’s three states the GOP can definitely win that they didn’t win in 2012. If Republicans also win Florida and Ohio, they win in 2012, 281-257. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1803 "2015-07-22T14:14:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > All Republicans lead Clinton in Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado: > > [Election News, Polls and Results - 270toWin](http://www.270towin.com/news/#.Va-k1Eayqm8) > > So there’s three states the GOP can definitely win that they didn’t win in 2012. How does that follow? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1804 "2015-07-22T14:15:23Z")
Because they currently lead. Besides, Colorado’s been pretty rough territory for Democrats since their gun control push. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1805 "2015-07-22T14:21:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Because they currently lead. Besides, Colorado’s been pretty rough territory for Democrats since their gun control push. But none of them have 50%! They’re in freefall! You’re comparing a candidate who has had 23 years of mud thrown on her to guys who have been below the radar for all that time. Clinton is not going to lose any state that Obama won. Mark it down and salute my wisdom in November 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1806 "2015-07-22T14:23:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Because they currently lead. Besides, Colorado’s been pretty rough territory for Democrats since their gun control push. Yeah, gun control is unpopular in the rural areas. Where they didn’t have a mass shooting in theater since the last election. And where nobody lives. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1807 "2015-07-22T14:24:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Because they currently lead. Besides, Colorado’s been pretty rough territory for Democrats since their gun control push. “currently lead” now equals “definitely win?” I’ speechless. Maybe we can skip the next 14 months of the campaign at least. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1808 "2015-07-22T14:24:44Z")
Um, she’s under 40% in two of those states. Do you actually believe anyone who isn’t currently supporting her is going to later on? Barring a Republican candidate who is just that bad, it’s not going to happen. So here’s my prediction: I will not predict a GOP victory yet. But I will predict that Colorado goes red in 2016. The Democrats have just burned too many bridges there. And Florida or Ohio will go red if the nominee is from one of those states, which isn’t really a bold prediction. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1809 "2015-07-22T14:25:57Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > “currently lead” now equals “definitely win?” I’ speechless. Maybe we can skip the next 14 months of the campaign at least. Currently lead= can definitely win, not definitely win. Although you’d be crazy to bet on a candidate polling under 40% who everyone already knows. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1810 "2015-07-22T14:34:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Currently lead= can definitely win, not definitely win. Although you’d be crazy to bet on a candidate polling under 40% who everyone already knows. Can I quote you the next time a poll shows her leading the same Republicans? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1811 "2015-07-22T14:58:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Because they currently lead. Besides, Colorado’s been pretty rough territory for Democrats since their gun control push. What “gun control push”? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1812 "2015-07-22T15:00:17Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Um, she’s under 40% in two of those states. Do you actually believe anyone who isn’t currently supporting her is going to later on? Certainly. Clinton will have the momentum after the other Dems drop out, and she’ll have a lot more swing-voter appeal than you seem to appreciate. She’ll also fire up the RW base to oppose her, but, again, you appear to overestimate their comparative numbers, which, twice, were not enough to beat Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1813 "2015-07-22T17:22:10Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What “gun control push”? [http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-10-22/colorados-hickenlooper-faces-voter-guncontrol-backlash](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-10-22/colorados-hickenlooper-faces-voter-guncontrol-backlash) I note that Gov. Hickenlooper was, in fact, reelected with a plurality but not a majority of the vote. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1814 "2015-07-22T17:23:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What “gun control push”? The one that led to recalls of Democratic legislators who voted for a gun control bill. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1815 "2015-07-22T18:16:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The one that led to recalls of Democratic legislators who voted for a gun control bill. As I have told you before: 1. The two Republicans who won the recall elections were defeated in the next election by Democrats. 2. The gun control law is still law. I’ll add another this time. 1. The governor that signed it was reelected. Your continued attempts to paint Colorado red due to the gun control recalls is simply disingenuous. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1816 "2015-07-22T19:06:57Z")
And now pot is legal there, too. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1817 "2015-07-22T21:53:24Z")
Just for fun I went to the the main politics page of of both [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/politics) and [Fox News](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/index.html) and did a “find on page” for each of the sixteen Republican candidates (plus Clinton as a comparison). Here’s what happened: ```auto Name CNN FOX Total Trump 23 10 33 Graham 4 2 6 Kasich 1 3 4 Perry 3 0 3 Bush 2 0 2 Rubio 2 0 2 Walker 1 1 2 Christie 1 0 1 Fiorina 0 1 1 Huckabee 0 1 1 Paul 1 0 1 Santorum 0 1 1 Carson 0 0 0 Cruz 0 0 0 Jindal 0 0 0 Pataki 0 0 0 Clinton 5 7 12 ``` Kasich did better than I thought he would, but he may want to consider picking a fight with Donald Trump if he wants to get the word out that he’s running. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1818 "2015-07-22T22:36:40Z")
Sorted by votes (89 voters): ## Bush 84 Cruz 80 Paul 76 Rubio 73 Walker 70 Huckabee 61 Christie 59 Trump 59 Perry 47 ## (tie for 10th) Santorum 36 Carson 36 Graham 27 Jindal 25 Kasich 18 Fiorina 17 Pataki 8 We’re more in alignment with the polls now, though not in the same order. It’ll be interesting to see if Trump nosedives after the McCain and Graham stuff. Even if he does, we’re getting close enough to the debate that polls with him leading may still be considered. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1819 "2015-07-22T23:46:04Z")
The participants in the first debate will be based on “the most recent five” polls. There’s still two weeks till the first debate. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1820 "2015-07-22T23:49:04Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Sorted by votes (89 voters): Boy, did I post this in the wrong thread, or what? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2015, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444/1821 "2015-07-23T01:59:46Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > And now pot is legal there, too. So, Coloradans won’t have all that much interest in shooting guns anyway . . . [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=90) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2016-republican-candidates/709444.md?page=92)