# The 2017/2018 Trump/GOP tax plan

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [September 27, 2017, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442 "2017-09-27T17:47:17Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 30

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**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/581 "2017-12-01T19:03:21Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> I said “if they continued their modest lifestyle”. In the example given by **LHoD** , they’d lived off $40k/year for 40 years, I don’t see a reason to think they couldn’t continue that, at least for our example.

Make sure you also make the perfectly fine assumption that neither of the couple ever needs extensive medical help or to live in an assisted care facility. Make the perfectly fine assumption that they both live to the reasonable age of 100 and then both die on the same day.

I think if you make those reasonable assumptions, this smart, frugal, pulled up by their own bootstraps couple would die with somewhere around $1billion.

For all you freeloaders, can’t you see how easy it is and why it’s important to do away with the estate tax?

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**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/582 "2017-12-01T19:24:12Z")

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This would also be a great time to interrogate the actual real world of people who leave estates above $11 million, and ask how many of those per year earned $100k for their entire 40 year career, or indeed were anywhere in the neighborhood. Even if we stretch the example to the breaking point and find some way that it might theoretically be possible, I strongly suspect that the average decade sees zero people in such circumstances get their estates of $11 million or more taxed.

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/583 "2017-12-01T19:32:51Z")

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**LHoD** , I had a question for you about this part:

> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#):
>
> … My “favorite” part was when the interviewer asked him about the vanishingly small number of people who would benefit from the repeal of estate tax–the \<100 families with estates over $11 million. …

Are there really less than 100 families with estates over $11 million? That _seems_ like too small a number. For starters, [Forbes list of billionaires has more than 100 Americans on it](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/4/#version:static_country:United%20States). What’s the source for “\<100 families with estates over $11 million”?

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/584 "2017-12-01T20:52:23Z")

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Apparently the Senate GOP was sharing their list of amendments to be included in the Manager’s Amendment [with lobbyists in DC, but not with Dem Senators](https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/936678750577623041).

Yeah, #Draintheswamp. Suuuuuuure.

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**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/585 "2017-12-01T20:56:00Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> **LHoD** , I had a question for you about this part:
> 
> Are there really less than 100 families with estates over $11 million? That _seems_ like too small a number. For starters, [Forbes list of billionaires has more than 100 Americans on it](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/4/#version:static_country:United%20States). What’s the source for “\<100 families with estates over $11 million”?

As you point out, you only benefit if you die.

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/586 "2017-12-01T21:01:05Z")

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> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#):
>
> As you point out, you only benefit if you die.

I’m not sure I follow. Does that mean that “\<100 families with estates over $11 million” refers to \<100 people with that level of assets that die? Every year or something?

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**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/587 "2017-12-01T21:01:12Z")

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Okay, crap, I did write that poorly. I thought I mentioned the “each year” part, but I didn’t. And I left out a key qualifier that the interviewer gave: this was the number of farms/businesses each year that would face the tax. My apologies.

[This is probably the source](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/ten-facts-you-should-know-about-the-federal-estate-tax):

> [@](#):
>
> Only roughly 80 small business and small farm estates nationwide will face any estate tax in 2017, according to TPC. TPC’s analysis defined a small-business or small farm estate as one with more than half its value in a farm or business and with the farm or business assets valued at less than $5 million. Furthermore, TPC estimates those roughly 80 estates will owe less than 6 percent of their value in tax, on average.

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**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/588 "2017-12-01T21:04:34Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> **LHoD** , I had a question for you about this part:
> 
> Are there really less than 100 families with estates over $11 million? That _seems_ like too small a number. For starters, [Forbes list of billionaires has more than 100 Americans on it](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/4/#version:static_country:United%20States). What’s the source for “\<100 families with estates over $11 million”?

Not sure about that \<100 number (I seem to remember hearing that the number of small family farms and business affected was around that number, but I can’t find a cite). [This Q&A from the Tax Policy Center](http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-many-people-pay-estate-tax) has the number of estates owing tax in 2013 at around 4,700, which was \<0.2% of the people who died that year.

So, no matter how you slice it, estate taxes affect very few estates. And, I would argue, they affect zero people, since the people are dead. Heirs don’t count–they are _ **not** _ the entities paying the tax.

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/589 "2017-12-01T21:06:14Z")

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Thanks for both your clarifications.

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**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/590 "2017-12-01T21:07:24Z")

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> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#):
>
> Okay, crap, I did write that poorly. I thought I mentioned the “each year” part, but I didn’t. And I left out a key qualifier that the interviewer gave: this was the number of farms/businesses each year that would face the tax. My apologies.
> 
> [This is probably the source](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/ten-facts-you-should-know-about-the-federal-estate-tax):

Ninja’d. And with a more precise response.

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**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/591 "2017-12-01T21:45:49Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> I said “if they continued their modest lifestyle”. In the example given by **LHoD** , they’d lived off $40k/year for 40 years, I don’t see a reason to think they couldn’t continue that, at least for our example.

I missed that he’s specified $40k. It works out a little differently now because their taxes will be different. But we’re already oversimplifying with rather stilted conditions, so why not continue? If we compound annually, 10 years will get them to $10.8M and 20 years to $20.7M.

> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> Are there really less than 100 families with estates over $11 million? That _seems_ like too small a number. For starters, [Forbes list of billionaires has more than 100 Americans on it](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/4/#version:static_country:United%20States). What’s the source for “\<100 families with estates over $11 million”?

This was clarified already but in case anyone is interested IRS posts data on estate tax returns here: [https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-estate-tax-statistics-filing-year-table-1](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-estate-tax-statistics-filing-year-table-1)

There were 5219 taxable estate tax returns in 2016. What I don’t understand is that some of these are under $5M, so maybe I’m misunderstanding what they’re presenting. Anyone able to help out here?

I’m counting 681 taxable returns with farm assets. But not necessarily a high proportion of farm assets.

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**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/592 "2017-12-01T22:10:51Z")

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> [@Ruken](#):
>
> There were 5219 taxable estate tax returns in 2016. What I don’t understand is that some of these are under $5M, so maybe I’m misunderstanding what they’re presenting. Anyone able to help out here?

One guess: IANAA but IIRC you can transfer assets early up to estate tax threshold to avoid paying gift taxes, but they count against your estate when you die, so it’s possible that they had already given several million to their heirs and thus their estate of $4 mill was counted as one of $8 mill due to previous giveaways?

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**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/593 "2017-12-01T23:10:48Z")

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For all of the talk of this tax plan helping out high income individuals, I’m looking at this thing and I’m gonna get royally screwed.

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/594 "2017-12-01T23:49:08Z")

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> [@Fiveyearlurker](#):
>
> For all of the talk of this tax plan helping out high income individuals, I’m looking at this thing and I’m gonna get royally screwed.

Not to pry, but which income quintile are you in?

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/595 "2017-12-01T23:59:16Z")

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Also, they’re still droning on and on in the Senate: [Watch Live: Senate Continues Debate On GOP Tax Bill | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/12/01/watch_live_senate_continues_debate_on_gop_tax_bill.html). Not sure when they’re finally going to vote on passage.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [December 2, 2017, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/596 "2017-12-02T00:02:51Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> Also, they’re still droning on and on in the Senate: [Watch Live: Senate Continues Debate On GOP Tax Bill | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/12/01/watch_live_senate_continues_debate_on_gop_tax_bill.html). Not sure when they’re finally going to vote on passage.

Maybe they should wait until they’ve got a typed-up copy of the bill, and give everyone a day or two to read through it? Because right now, it’s apparently 479 pages that look like [this](https://twitter.com/chadderr/status/936737403309641730).

Yeah, that’s how they’re doing a $1.5 trillion change to the tax code.

Throw out every last Republican who is okay with ‘governing’ this way.

I am embarrassed for my country.

ETA: My son is in _fifth grade_. _He_ isn’t allowed to turn in stuff that looks like that.

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [December 2, 2017, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/597 "2017-12-02T00:06:09Z")

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> [@RTFirefly](#):
>
> Maybe they should wait until they’ve got a typed-up copy of the bill, and give everyone a day or two to read through it?

Yeah, I’m pretty sure they’re not going to do that. I agree that they should.

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**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\
**Post date:** [December 2, 2017, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/598 "2017-12-02T00:18:48Z")

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> [@RTFirefly](#):
>
> Maybe they should wait until they’ve got a typed-up copy of the bill, and give everyone a day or two to read through it?

“We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.”

Sauce, goose, gander.

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**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\
**Post date:** [December 2, 2017, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/599 "2017-12-02T00:57:48Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> Not to pry, but which income quintile are you in?

Enough that I get hit with the AMT and will continue to under the new bill. And I live in a high tax state with high property values and will lose those deductions. I made a mistake in making my money in salary and not inheritance. My bad.  
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [December 2, 2017, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/600 "2017-12-02T01:04:36Z")

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> [@Fiveyearlurker](#):
>
> Enough that I get hit with the AMT and will continue to under the new bill. And I live in a high tax state with high property values and will lose those deductions. I made a mistake in making my money in salary and not inheritance. My bad.  
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Doesn’t the new bill get rid of the AMT? Or is it just one of the bills. Still, it looks like there’s a good chance it’ll be gone, no?

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