# The 2017/2018 Trump/GOP tax plan **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 27, 2017, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442 "2017-09-27T17:47:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/681 "2017-12-04T01:36:04Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > So upper middle class red staters are somehow exempt? Got a cite for that? Some provisions of the bill are very clearly targeted at liberals. One of the clearest, albeit petty, examples is the removal of the tiny subsidy for bicycle commuting — bicycle riding, especially when done for environmental reasons, is a liberal thing. The following were all key elements of the tax plan designed to screw liberals and blue states generally (though some of these may have been removed from the handwritten bill): — Two very major provisions are designed to screw university graduate students, or anyone paying off student loans. University education is very much a liberal thing. The mortgage deduction is especially important for urbanites, who tend to vote D. Homes are more expensive in cities. The state tax deduction is especially important for residents of high-tax states, i.e. states that spend on the welfare of their citizens. There is a very strong correlation between states’ voting Democratic and their caring for citizens’ well-being — do you also need a cite for that? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/682 "2017-12-04T02:18:48Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Nitpick: it got 3 GOP votes. Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Arlen Specter (who would shortly switch parties). The Dems didn’t have 60 Senators at that point, since Arlen was still in the GOP and Franken hadn’t been declared the winner in MN yet. I don’t know what you’re referring to; that is not the case with the final vote in the Senate. > **[U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 111th Congress - 1st Session](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1111/vote_111_1_00396.htm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00396)** > > roll\_call\_vote.xml ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/683 "2017-12-04T02:23:47Z")
But those last two affect mostly the well off. The mortgage deduction is still in for mortgages of $500K or less, and a significant majority of tax payers don’t itemize at all. With the significant increase in the standard deception, that number will almost certainly increase. This tax change is a bonus to the very, very wealthy, but it seems to hit the “fairly well off to quite well off” in those high tax states. I haven’t seen the demographic breakdown, but it would’t surprise me if this hits more Republicans in those high tax states than Democrats. ETA: My post referenced **septimus** ’ post. Took me too long to compose, and **Ravenman** snuck a post in while I wasn’t looking. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/684 "2017-12-04T02:25:58Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > … There is a very strong correlation between states’ voting Democratic and their caring for citizens’ well-being — do you also need a cite for that? I’m intrigued, so yes, I would like to see a cite for that. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/685 "2017-12-04T03:21:39Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m intrigued, so yes, I would like to see a cite for that. What shall we use as an objective proxy for “caring for citizens’ well-being”? Whether they protect children from God-hating sciences like evolution? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/686 "2017-12-04T03:26:19Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > What shall we use as an objective proxy for “caring for citizens’ well-being”? Whether they protect children from God-hating sciences like evolution? I was curious what you had in mind when you wrote post #681 ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/687 "2017-12-04T04:10:19Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I was curious what you had in mind when you wrote post #681 _That_ much was clear. So your response is to let #681 go completely unchallenged, except to “ask for a cite” on an obviously subjective criterion — _though you know perfectly well what I mean and **also know that I am correct** _ — so that you can nitpick any cite I choose in defense? Got it. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/688 "2017-12-04T05:24:00Z")
Don’t know if someone posted this yet, but this calculator lets you figure out how the bill could affect you. My guess of $900 was not far off. [http://taxplancalculator.com/](http://taxplancalculator.com/) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/689 "2017-12-04T05:26:05Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > _That_ much was clear. So your response is to let #681 go completely unchallenged, except to “ask for a cite” on an obviously subjective criterion — _though you know perfectly well what I mean and **also know that I am correct** _ — so that you can nitpick any cite I choose in defense? Got it. I certainly don’t have enough time to challenge every wrong thing you or others say on here. Most of what you said was pretty obviously just opinion and not factual. The only line that stuck out to me in that post (“There is a very strong correlation between states’ voting Democratic and their caring for citizens’ well-being”) seemed to imply some scientific basis (“very strong correlation”), and so I wondered if there was one. if it’s just, like, your opinion man, then that’s fine, and please consider my request for a cite withdrawn. For the record, I don’t “know” (or even think) that your opinion about a correlation between voting D and caring for citizens’ well-being is correct. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/690 "2017-12-04T05:41:16Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > But those last two affect mostly the well off. The mortgage deduction is still in for mortgages of $500K or less, and a significant majority of tax payers don’t itemize at all. With the significant increase in the standard **deception** , that number will almost certainly increase. This tax change is a bonus to the very, very wealthy, but it seems to hit the “fairly well off to quite well off” in those high tax states. I haven’t seen the demographic breakdown, but it would’t surprise me if this hits more Republicans in those high tax states than Democrats. > > ETA: My post referenced **septimus** ’ post. Took me too long to compose, and **Ravenman** snuck a post in while I wasn’t looking. 😉 Was the word I’ve reddened one of those weird typos I make? Or just deliberate irony? 😃 As for the assumption that the “well off” vote R, be aware that [one source shows](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/groups-voted-2016/) the $100,000+ income group was split exactly evenly between Clinton and Trump. [Another source that breaks the $100k+ group into three groups](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html) shows all three as almost even. The only income group where Trump led by more than 2% was the $50,000 - $99,999 group. (And within the higher income groups the R voters tend to be more rural, which I think tends to imply smaller home mortgage [del]deception[/del] deduction.) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/691 "2017-12-04T09:58:28Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I don’t know what you’re referring to; that is not the case with the final vote in the Senate. > > [U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 111th Congress - 1st Session](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00396) That’s the ACA, and no argument there. But you said the stimulus bill didn’t get GOP votes either, but it did, and it needed them, as the number of Dem Senators stood at 58 in February 2009. Here’s the roll calls on [cloture](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00059) and [Senate passage of the ARRA](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00061). Anyhow, still just a nitpick, even though it’s now a thoroughly cited nitpick. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/692 "2017-12-04T14:24:55Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Don’t know if someone posted this yet, but this calculator lets you figure out how the bill could affect you. My guess of $900 was not far off. [http://taxplancalculator.com/](http://taxplancalculator.com/) I save a couple thousand. Take that poor kids without health insurance! ☹ ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/693 "2017-12-04T14:31:12Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Was the word I’ve reddened one of those weird typos I make? Or just deliberate irony? 😃 That’s got to be one of the best spellcheck “typos” _EVERRRR_! 🙂 > [@](#): > > As for the assumption that the “well off” vote R, be aware that [one source shows](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/groups-voted-2016/) the $100,000+ income group was split exactly evenly between Clinton and Trump. [Another source that breaks the $100k+ group into three groups](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html) shows all three as almost even. The only income group where Trump led by more than 2% was the $50,000 - $99,999 group. (And within the higher income groups the R voters tend to be more rural, which I think tends to imply smaller home mortgage [del]deception[/del] deduction.) OK, I was only suggesting that exactly who is going to be hurt by this bill is a bit more complicated than just saying “high tax states”. It’s still a fact that the vast majority of people are going to get a tax cut. It may not be a big one, and it may not be shit compared to what the very rich are getting, but it’s ~20% the folks (I believe) in between the “vast majority” and the super rich who are going to be hit by this. As I said earlier in the thread, I’m hoping this is enough to hit some of the Republican districts in otherwise Democratic leaning states so as to give the House Republicans some problem in the midterms. It’s a very difficult analysis to do, and I’m not sure the data even exists to do it right, so at this point it’s more of a hope than something I’m sure of. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/694 "2017-12-04T14:42:45Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Anyhow, still just a nitpick, even though it’s now a thoroughly cited nitpick. 😉 Oh! My mistake. Sorry for the confusion. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/695 "2017-12-04T14:56:17Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > “The Reverse Robin Hood, robbing everyone else to give to the rich.” [Dennis Moore](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwY98217hFE), please. > [@](#): > > Moore Oh all right. (turns purposefully) > > ``` > *Usual montage of Dennis Moore riding plus song. > > ``` > > Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore > Riding through the land > Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore > Without a merry band > He steals from the poor and gives to the rich > Stupid bitch.\* > > ``` > Dennis Moore reins to sudden halt and looks over to camera. > > ``` > > Moore What did you sing? > Singers (speaking) We sang… he steals from the poor and gives to the rich. > Moore Wait a tic … blimey, this redistribution of wealth is trickier than I thought. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/696 "2017-12-04T17:24:04Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > I save a couple thousand. Take that poor kids without health insurance! Care to explain this sort of cheap shot? If my math is right, by that calculator, poor folks also save money (albeit only a few hundred) and the bill has nothing to do with insurance or the lack of it whatsoever. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/697 "2017-12-04T17:31:10Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Care to explain this sort of cheap shot? If my math is right, by that calculator, poor folks also save money (albeit only a few hundred) and the bill has nothing to do with insurance or the lack of it whatsoever. As I read it, it’s snark aimed at Senator Chuck Grassley’s comments to the effect that poor people waste their money on “booze or women or movies” unlike the heirs of wealthy people who invest their windfalls; and also at Senator Orin Hatch’s comment that there’s “no money” to pay for the children’s health insurance program because he has “a rough time wanting to spend billions and billions and trillions of dollars to help people who won’t help themselves, won’t lift a finger and expect the federal government to do everything.” Hatch is of course the chief author of the tax cut bill. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/698 "2017-12-04T17:40:00Z")
An interesting article that the GOP has [royally screwed some stuff up](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/senate-gop-accidentally-killed-all-corporate-tax-deductions.html)that is going to require going back to the Senate to fix. "The GOP had originally intended to abolish the AMT. But on Friday, with the clock running out — and money running short — Senate Republicans put the AMT back into their bill. Unfortunately for McConnell, they forgot to lower AMT after doing so. This is a big problem. The Senate bill brings the normal corporate rate down to 20 percent — while leaving the alternative minimum rate at … 20 percent. The legislation would still allow corporations to claim a wide variety of tax credits and deductions — it just renders all them completely worthless. Companies can either take no deductions, and pay a 20 percent rate — or take lots of deductions … and pay a 20 percent rate." They can fix this problem in conference, but that will require finding more cuts to make to stay below amount for reconciliation. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/699 "2017-12-04T17:42:48Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Care to explain this sort of cheap shot? If my math is right, by that calculator, poor folks also save money (albeit only a few hundred) and the bill has nothing to do with insurance or the lack of it whatsoever. Sorry, it was sarcasm. Also this: > [@Ravenman](#): > > As I read it, it’s snark aimed at Senator Chuck Grassley’s comments to the effect that poor people waste their money on “booze or women or movies” unlike the heirs of wealthy people who invest their windfalls; and also at Senator Orin Hatch’s comment that there’s “no money” to pay for the children’s health insurance program because he has “a rough time wanting to spend billions and billions and trillions of dollars to help people who won’t help themselves, won’t lift a finger and expect the federal government to do everything.” > > Hatch is of course the chief author of the tax cut bill. Thanks **Ravenman**! ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2017, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442/700 "2017-12-04T18:03:58Z")
[Interesting AP article that lists when certain tax cuts expire](https://apnews.com/02e2447991df4d898fa18d3d1378430c/Those-tax-breaks-in-the-GOP-plan?-Enjoy-them-while-they-last) also has this nugget: > [@](#): > > But the tax overhaul creates a perilous series of votes for lawmakers in coming years. > > “’Governing from crisis to crisis is exactly the way to put it,” says Steve Bell, a senior adviser at the Bipartisan Policy Center and a former staff director at the Senate Budget Committee. > > This problem is a byproduct of the decision by the Trump administration and Republican leaders that the best way to revamp the tax code was to bypass Democrats. Under Senate rules, permanent tax cuts that raise the deficit need 60 votes. The slim 52-seat Republican majority agreed to pass tax cuts that would add no more than $1.5 trillion to budget deficits through 2027. Starting in 2028, the tax cuts can’t add to the deficit. > > Because of these restrictions, Republican senators made a decision: They would make the income tax cuts for individuals only temporary, in order to pay for making the tax cuts for corporations permanent. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-2018-trump-gop-tax-plan/797442.md?page=36)