# The 2017 Road to the Oscars **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [December 11, 2017, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221 "2017-12-11T18:25:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2017, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/1 "2017-12-11T18:25:20Z")
While the ceremony takes place next March, the Academy officially designates the year being recognized as the awards year, so with 2017 wrapping up and some major critics and organizations starting to hand out prizes, let this be the all-purpose film awards thread for this year. And yes, plenty of things that don’t are so-so and pretty-good beat out far more exceptional fare, so we can accept that as a given and just hope that some people who really did knock a home run get some recognition along the way. So, with the Golden Globe nominations coming out this morning, let’s start there: Best Motion Picture, Drama **Call Me By Your Name Dunkirk The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri** Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy **The Disaster Artist Get Out The Greatest Showman I, Tonya Lady Bird** Best Director – Motion Picture Guillermo del Toro, _The Shape of Water_ Martin McDonagh, _Three Billboards_ Christopher Nolan, _Dunkirk_ Ridley Scott, _All the Money in the World_ Steven Spielberg, _The Post_ Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama Timothée Chalamet, _Call Me By Your Name_ Daniel Day-Lewis, _The Phantom Thread_ Tom Hanks, _The Post_ Gary Oldman, _Darkest Hour_ Denzel Washington, _Roman J Israel, Esq_ Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama Jessica Chastain, _Molly’s Game_ Sally Hawkins, _The Shape of Water_ Francis McDormand, _Three Billboards_ Meryl Streep, _The Post_ Michelle Williams, _All the Money in the World_ Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy Steve Carell, _Battle of the Sexes_ Ansel Elgort, _Baby Driver_ James Franco, _The Disaster Artist_ Hugh Jackman, _The Greatest Showman_ Daniel Kaluuya, _Get Out_ Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy Judi Dench, _Victoria & Abdul_ Helen Mirren, _The Leisure Seeker_ Margot Robbie, _I, Tonya_ Saoirse Ronan, _Lady Bird_ Emma Stone, _Battle of the Sexes_ Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture Willem Dafoe, _The Florida Project_ Armie Hammer, _Call Me By Your Name_ Richard Jenkins, _The Shape Of Water_ Christopher Plummer, _All the Money in the World_ Sam Rockwell, _Three Billboards_ Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture Mary J Blige, _Mudbound_ Hong Chau, _Downsizing_ Allison Janney, _I, Tonya_ Laurie Metcalf, _Lady Bird_ Octavia Spencer, _The Shape of Water_ Best Screenplay – Motion Picture _The Shape Of Water_, Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor _Lady Bird_, Greta Gerwig _The Post_, Liz Hannah, Josh Singer _Three Billboards_, Martin McDonagh _Molly’s Game_, Aaron Srokin Best Foreign Language Film _A Fantastic Woman_ (Chile) _First They Killed My Father_ (Cambodia) _In the Fade_ (Germany, France) _Loveless_ (Russia) _The Square_ (Sweden, Germany, France) Best Animated Feature Film _The Boss Baby The Breadwinner Coco Ferdinand Loving Vincent_ Best Original Score – Motion Picture _Three Billboards_, Carter Burwell _The Shape of Water_, Alexandre Desplat _Phantom Thread_, Jonny Greenwood _The Post_, John Williams _Dunkirk_, Hans Zimmer Best Original Song – Motion Picture “Home”, _Ferdinand_ “Mighty River”, _Mudbound_ “Remember Me”, _Coco_ “The Star”, _The Star_ “This Is Me”, _The Greatest Showman_ ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2017, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/2 "2017-12-11T18:38:09Z")
As for the major critics awards, here are how the winners have been distributed so far (NBR=National Board of Review; NY=NY Film Critics, LA=LA Film Critics) Picture: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (LA), LADY BIRD (NY), THE POST (NBR) Actor: Chalamet (LA, NY), Hanks (NBR) Actress: Hawkins (LA), Ronan (NY), Streep (NBR) Supp. Actor: Dafoe (LA, NBR, NY) Supp. Actress: Tiffany Haddish, GIRLS TRIP (NY), Metcalf (LA, NBR) Director: Sean Baker, THE FLORIDA PROJECT (NY), del Toro (LA), Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD (NBR) Screenplay: The DISASTER ARTIST (NBR), GET OUT (LA), THE PHANTOM THREAD (NBR, NY) Animated Feature: THE BREADWINNER (LA), COCO (NBR, NY) Foreign Language Film: BPM, France (LA, NY), FOXTROT, Israel (NBR), LOVELESS (LA) ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2017, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/3 "2017-12-11T18:56:14Z")
And while the various guilds are typically seen as the more reliable predictor (because their voting pools overlap somewhat with Academy membership), the Critics Choice awards have proven the most consistently aligned with the Academy’s tastes. Here are their nominations: BEST PICTURE **The Big Sick Call Me by Your Name Darkest Hour Dunkirk The Florida Project Get Out Lady Bird The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri** BEST ACTOR Timothée Chalamet – _Call Me by Your Name_ James Franco – _The Disaster Artist_ Jake Gyllenhaal – _Stronger_ Tom Hanks – _The Post_ Daniel Kaluuya – _Get Out_ Daniel Day-Lewis – _Phantom Thread_ Gary Oldman – _Darkest Hour_ BEST ACTRESS Jessica Chastain – _Molly’s Game_ Sally Hawkins – _The Shape of Water_ Frances McDormand – _Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri_ Margot Robbie – _I, Tonya_ Saoirse Ronan – _Lady Bird_ Meryl Streep – _The Post_ BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Willem Dafoe – _The Florida Project_ Armie Hammer – _Call Me By Your Name_ Richard Jenkins – _The Shape of Water_ Sam Rockwell – _Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri_ Patrick Stewart – _Logan_ Michael Stuhlbarg – _Call Me by Your Name_ BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Mary J. Blige – _Mudbound_ Hong Chau – _Downsizing_ Tiffany Haddish – _Girls Trip_ Holly Hunter – _The Big Sick_ Allison Janney – _I, Tonya_ Laurie Metcalf – _Lady Bird_ Octavia Spencer – _The Shape of Water_ BEST DIRECTOR Guillermo del Toro – _The Shape of Water_ Greta Gerwig – _Lady Bird_ Martin McDonagh – _Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri_ Christopher Nolan – _Dunkirk_ Luca Guadagnino – _Call Me By Your Name_ Jordan Peele – _Get Out_ Steven Spielberg – _The Post_ BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor – _The Shape of Water_ Greta Gerwig – _Lady Bird_ Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani – _The Big Sick_ Liz Hannah and Josh Singer – _The Post_ Martin McDonagh – _Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri_ Jordan Peele – _Get Out_ BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY James Ivory – _Call Me by Your Name_ Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber – _The Disaster Artist_ Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – _Mudbound_ Aaron Sorkin – _Molly’s Game_ Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad, Stephen Chbosky – _Wonder_ BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Roger Deakins – _Blade Runner 2049_ Hoyte van Hoytema – _Dunkirk_ Dan Laustsen – _The Shape of Water_ Rachel Morrison – _Mudbound_ Sayombhu Mukdeeprom – _Call Me By Your Name_ BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin – _The Shape of Water_ Jim Clay, Rebecca Alleway – _Murder on the Orient Express_ Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis – _Dunkirk_ Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola – _Blade Runner 2049_ Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – _Beauty and the Beast_ Mark Tildesley, Véronique Melery – _Phantom Thread_ BEST EDITING Michael Kahn, Sarah Broshar – _The Post_ Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos – _Baby Driver_ Lee Smith – _Dunkirk_ Joe Walker – _Blade Runner 2049_ Sidney Wolinsky – _The Shape of Water_ BEST COSTUME DESIGN Renée April – _Blade Runner 2049_ Mark Bridges – _Phantom Thread_ Jacqueline Durran – _Beauty and the Beast_ Lindy Hemming – _Wonder Woman_ Luis Sequeira – _The Shape of Water_ BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP \* Beauty and the Beast Darkest Hour I, Tonya The Shape of Water Wonder\* BEST VISUAL EFFECTS \* Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk The Shape of Water Thor: Ragnarok War for the Planet of the Apes Wonder Woman\* BEST ANIMATED FEATURE \* The Breadwinner Coco Despicable Me 3 The LEGO Batman Movie Loving Vincent\* BEST COMEDY \* The Big Sick The Disaster Artist Girls Trip I, Tonya Lady Bird\* BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY Steve Carell – _Battle of the Sexes_ James Franco – _The Disaster Artist_ Chris Hemsworth – _Thor: Ragnarok_ Kumail Nanjiani – _The Big Sick_ Adam Sandler – _The Meyerowitz Stories_ BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY Tiffany Haddish – _Girls Trip_ Zoe Kazan – _The Big Sick_ Margot Robbie – _I, Tonya_ Saoirse Ronan – _Lady Bird_ Emma Stone – _Battle of the Sexes_ BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM \* BPM (Beats Per Minute) A Fantastic Woman First They Killed My Father In the Fade The Square Thelma\* ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2017, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/4 "2017-12-11T22:30:23Z")
The GGs again show just how good and awful they are. Nice nods to mostly smaller films. But Christopher Plummer for _All the Money in the World_? Is there a print with his scenes in it for them to review? He was still filming the replacement shots for Spacey a couple weeks ago. There’s some stuff on the list that suggests the usual methods to earn GG noms have been applied and/or inertia. _Boss Baby_? I saw a minor awards nomination list that had Kumail Nanjiani and Stephen Spielberg both for Best Director. Would have been impossible to believe such a pairing a year ago. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/5 "2017-12-12T00:41:28Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > But Christopher Plummer for _All the Money in the World_? Is there a print with his scenes in it for them to review? He was still filming the replacement shots for Spacey a couple weeks ago. Yes. A print with all of Plummer’s scenes (but not fully finalized film) was screened for the Golden Globes members in time for the voting cutoff. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/6 "2017-12-12T23:54:33Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#): > > Yes. A print with all of Plummer’s scenes (but not fully finalized film) was screened for the Golden Globes members in time for the voting cutoff. I’m skeptical about this because it also received nominations for Director and Actress (Michelle Williams) so a full print (even if hastily assembled) must have been shown to them in order to justify those citations, too. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/7 "2017-12-13T00:03:54Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#): > > I’m skeptical about this because it also received nominations for Director and Actress (Michelle Williams) so a full print (even if hastily assembled) must have been shown to them in order to justify those citations, too. That’s what I said. I don’t know what you’re skeptical of? A full print was shown, it just apparently needed a bit more tweaking before it could be released for public view, I don’t know exactly what else needed to be done, maybe color grading, some kind of effects. But a full film in terms of acting scenes was screened for GG qualification. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/8 "2017-12-13T00:15:59Z")
This year has more potential candidates than usual - a mix of typical heavies (Spielberg etc) plus a large-ish and growing group of smaller-budget films. Usually by late December the ‘obvious’ 3 or 4 potential Best Picture winners have been locked down, but I’m not sure we’re going to get there. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/9 "2017-12-13T18:01:01Z")
The SAG nominations came out today. Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” James Franco, “The Disaster Artist” Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out” Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul” Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes” Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project” Woody Harrelson,”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water” Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound” Hong Chau, “Downsizing” Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick” Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: “The Big Sick” “Get Out” “Lady Bird” “Mudbound” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Remember that the actors represent the largest voting block in the Academy, so while the SAG nominees only occasionally match a perfect 5-for-5, most of the names you see here are very likely going to be Oscar nominees, too. The even more telling info from this slate is in the Ensemble category. Although they actively discourage equating “Best Ensemble” with “Best Picture”, the fact remains that the last Best Picture winner to \*\*\*not \*\*\*get a SAG Ensemble nomination was BRAVEHEART, back in SAG’s infancy. So even though films like THE SHAPE OF WATER and DUNKIRK are likely to get the most total Oscar nominations because of all the technical and craft categories they’ll represent, their odds of winning the Big One have dropped precipitously. At this point, it very much looks like a coin toss between BILLBOARDS and LADY BIRD (with GET OUT being the Jefferson-Smith-coin-lands-on-the-edge because only 1 horror movie has ever won Oscar’s top prize) ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/10 "2017-12-15T00:23:52Z")
I wonder if the introduction of AFTRA to SAG has ameliorated any of their predictive power… ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/11 "2017-12-15T00:37:02Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > I wonder if the introduction of AFTRA to SAG has ameliorated any of their predictive power… It’s a good question. The fact that THE POST was missing from the SAGs (because the screeners didn’t go out in time for the nominating deadline) may also play a factor, since it seems safe to say Hanks and Streep would’ve likely been in their respective slates if the film had been seen more by the guild members. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2017, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/12 "2017-12-19T23:16:04Z")
Some of the Oscar branches go through a “bake-off” process that reduces the total number of contenders to a smaller shortlist of films from which the final nominees will be produced. Here they are. VISUAL EFFECTS “Alien: Covenant” “Blade Runner 2049” “Dunkirk” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” “Kong: Skull Island” “Okja” “The Shape of Water” “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” “Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets” “War for the Planet of the Apes” MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING “Bright” “Darkest Hour” “Ghost in the Shell” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” “I, Tonya” “Victoria & Abdul” “Wonder” FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Chile, “A Fantastic Woman,” Sebastián Lelio, director Germany, “In the Fade,” Fatih Akin, director Hungary, “On Body and Soul,” Ildikó Enyedi, director Israel, “Foxtrot,” Samuel Maoz, director Lebanon, “The Insult,” Ziad Doueiri, director Russia, “Loveless,” Andrey Zvyagintsev, director Senegal, “Félicité,” Alain Gomis, director South Africa, “The Wound,” John Trengove, director Sweden, “The Square,” Ruben Östlund, director DOCUMENTARY FEATURE “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Mitten Media, Motto Pictures, Kartemquin Educational Films and WGBH/FRONTLINE “Chasing Coral,” Exposure Labs in partnership with The Ocean Agency & View Into the Blue in association with Argent Pictures & The Kendeda Fund “City of Ghosts,” Our Time Projects and Jigsaw Productions “Ex Libris – The New York Public Library,” Ex Libris Films “Faces Places,” Ciné Tamaris “Human Flow,” Participant Media and AC Films “Icarus,” Netflix Documentary in association with Impact Partners, Diamond Docs, Chicago Media Project and Alex Productions “An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power,” Paramount Pictures and Participant Media “Jane,” National Geographic Studios in association with Public Road Productions “LA 92,” Lightbox “Last Men in Aleppo,” Larm Film “Long Strange Trip,” Double E Pictures, AOMA Sunshine Films and Sikelia “One of Us,” Loki Films “Strong Island,” Yanceville Films and Louverture Films “Unrest,” Shella Films and Little by Little Films ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/13 "2018-01-04T21:15:24Z")
A few updates. The guilds are starting to weigh in, and two of the most important (after the Directors and Producers, which have yet to be announced) are the Writers and Film Editors. Here are the films they’ve nominated: **WGA** ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY _The Big Sick_, Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani; Amazon Studios _Get Out_, Written by Jordan Peele; Universal Pictures _I, Tonya_, Written by Steven Rogers; Neon _Lady Bird_, Written by Greta Gerwig; A24 _The Shape of Water_, Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro; Fox Searchlight ADAPTED SCREENPLAY _Call Me by Your Name_, Screenplay by James Ivory; Based on the Novel by André Aciman; Sony Pictures Classics _The Disaster Artist_, Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber; Based on the Book The Disaster Artist: My Life Inside the Room, the Greatest Bad Movie Ever Made by Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell; A24 _Logan_, Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold; Based on Characters from the X-Men Comic Books and Theatrical Motion Pictures; Twentieth Century Fox Film _Molly’s Game_, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin; Based on the Book by Molly Bloom; STX Entertainment _Mudbound_, Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees; Based on the Novel by Hillary Jordan; Netflix **ACE** BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC): \*Blade Runner 2049 \*Joe Walker, ACE _Dunkirk_ Lee Smith, ACE _Molly’s Game_ Alan Baumgarten, ACE, Josh Schaeffer & Elliot Graham, ACE _The Post_ Michael Kahn, ACE & Sarah Broshar _The Shape of Water_ Sidney Wolinsky, ACE BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY): _Baby Driver_ Jonathan Amos, ACE & Paul Machliss, ACE _Get Out_ Gregory Plotkin _I, Tonya_ Tatiana S. Riegel, ACE _Lady Bird_ Nick Houy ## _Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri_ Jon Gregory, ACE Also, the Golden Globes are on Sunday, so an early peak on some of the fashion, speeches, and buzz that’s building. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/14 "2018-01-04T21:25:51Z")
Oh, and a little perspective on these nominations. Over the last 5 years, of the 10 films nominated for the “Eddie” (the Editing guild award), on average 4 from the Drama category and 2 from the Comedy category went on to get Best Picture Oscar nominations. Over the last 5 years, of the 10 films nominated by the Writers guild, on average half went on to a Best Picture Oscar nom. ---
**Author:** ![eunoia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eunoia/32/97_2.png) [@eunoia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eunoia)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/15 "2018-01-04T22:14:01Z")
Here’s a proposal for a new slate of annual awards where nomination and voting only occurs 5 years after first screening. As much as I like the idea of shining a light on more varied and personal films, that same light can expose an embarrassing lack of film culture, vision and talent. Mumblecore works as idiosyncratic spoofs of made-for-TV movies, but elevating this “cleverness” to honored art is shameful. Ah, January, the month we’re most susceptible to be sold the worst movies marketed as the best. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/16 "2018-01-05T17:10:56Z")
Well, the Producers Guild have announced their nominations. Over the past 5 years, 8 out of 10 of these nominees went on to earn a Best Picture nod as well, so you’re very likely looking at what may be the final slate of contenders (since AMPAS usually only nominates 8-9 titles in that category). **The Big Sick** Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel **Call Me By Your Name** Producers: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito **Dunkirk** Producers: Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan **Get Out** Producers: Sean McKittrick & Edward H. Hamm, Jr., Jason Blum, Jordan Peele **I, Tonya** Producers: Bryan Unkeless, Steven Rogers, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley **Lady Bird** Producers: Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill **Molly’s Game** Producers: Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal, Matt Jackson **The Post** Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger **The Shape Of Water** Producers: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale \*\* Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri\*\* Producers: Graham Broadbent & Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh **Wonder Woman** Producers: Charles Roven & Richard Suckle, Zack Snyder & Deborah Snyder ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2018, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/17 "2018-01-05T18:27:51Z")
I’ve seen the following: Lady Bird - an OK movie. Cute, nothing special. Three Billboards - an OK, maybe even really good movie. Nothing super special, though. The Big Sick - below average. Not horrible, but pretty bad. Get Out - a really good movie. Worth it. Wonder Woman - OK, but forgetable. Dunkirk - I did not like this movie(I was stunned!). I hope it wins nothing. ---
**Author:** ![amaguri](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/49beb7/32.png) [@amaguri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amaguri)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2018, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/18 "2018-01-08T16:45:17Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I’ve seen the following: Just out of curiosity then, what 2017 movies have you really liked? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2018, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/19 "2018-01-10T01:23:56Z")
> [@amaguri](#): > > Just out of curiosity then, what 2017 movies have you really liked? Well, the below movies were better than any I listed(except Get Out): The Last Jedi Logan Spider-man Homecoming John Wick 2 Beauty and the Beast Pirates 5 - this one surprised me the most by a mile. I know this got bashed by critics, but it was \*a lot lot \*better than any previous Pirates sequel. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2018, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221/20 "2018-01-11T19:04:37Z")
Well, the DGA just announced their nominees. The DGA is hands-down the most reliable predictor of any Oscar category, with its winner going on to win the Academy Award 61 times in the last 69 years (or an 88% accuracy rate). This year’s slate: Guillermo del Toro – **The Shape of Water** Greta Gerwig – **Lady Bird** Martin McDonagh – **Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri** Christopher Nolan – **Dunkirk** Jordan Peele – **Get Out** Now on average, 4 of the DGA nominees go on to be nominated for the Oscar (2009 was the last year the 5 matched exactly). The most recent films that were nominated for DGA but _not_ the Best Director Oscar were: \*American Sniper, Argo, Captain Phillips, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Inception, Les Miserables, Lion, The Martian, Zero Dark Thirty \* Note that 6 of these 9 films went on to win a combined 13 Oscars (including in one case, Best Picture) so they were films that were still in very good standing with the Academy overall. And as for the Golden Globes? While they’re not the greatest predictors per se (especially with the Drama/Comedy split), it’s still telling to see how winners are received by the celebs in the room, so Oldman, McDormand, Ronan, Janney, Rockwell, and Del Toro all made good impressions and are, if not front-runners, seriously in the running. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2017-road-to-the-oscars/804221.md?page=2)